This paper examines empirical relationships among commuters’ mode choice, metropolitan urban form... more This paper examines empirical relationships among commuters’ mode choice, metropolitan urban form, and socioeconomic attributes in the 100 largest urban areas in the United States and Mexico. Fitting multinomial logit models to data for more than 5 million commuters and their home urban area, we find several consistent relationships and several important differences in relationships among urban form and travel behavior. In both countries, urban residents living in housing types associated with more centrally located housing in more densely populated urban areas with less roadway are less likely to commute by private vehicle than similar residents in other housing types and other urban areas. In addition to some differences in the strength, significance, and signs of several predictor variables, we find large differences in elasticity estimates across contexts. In particular, the US’s high rates of driving and generally car-friendly urban form mean that even dramatic shifts in urban ...
This paper applies multinomial logit models to examine how metropolitan urban form, housing type ... more This paper applies multinomial logit models to examine how metropolitan urban form, housing type and socioeconomic factors covary with individuals’ commute mode choice for 1.2 million low-income workers in the USA and Mexico. Comparing the commute patterns of low-income households across the USA–Mexico border sheds light on the consistency of estimated relationships across global contexts and the likely transferability of transportation and land use policies from the Global North to the Global South. We find many common relationships on each side of the border, despite substantial socioeconomic and urban differences. For example, wealthier and better-educated low-income workers in low-density metropolitan areas with substantial road supply are more likely to drive to work and less likely to use active modes. We also find some considerable differences between the magnitude and even direction of associations between predictor variables and commuter mode choice. In terms of public poli...
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board
This study investigates the relationship between pedestrian crashes and various socio-demographic... more This study investigates the relationship between pedestrian crashes and various socio-demographic, built environment, traffic exposure, and roadway characteristics across different times of day for both weekdays and weekends. Using the street segment as the unit of analysis, multilevel generalized linear mixed models with negative binomial estimators are applied to examine predictors of pedestrian crashes, including those resulting in severe injuries and fatalities, that occurred in Philadelphia, U.S., between 2010 and 2017. It is found that most of the relationships between the predictor variables and pedestrian crashes are consistent throughout the day for both weekdays and weekends. Although traffic volumes and pedestrian trips fluctuate throughout the day, average daily measures of traffic and pedestrian exposure have consistent relationships with pedestrian crashes throughout the day for both weekdays and weekends. Certain roadway characteristics, such as the amount of secondar...
Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment
License-plate-based driving restrictions are among the highest profile policies for local governm... more License-plate-based driving restrictions are among the highest profile policies for local governments to address congestion and air pollution. Cities as varied as Sao Paulo, Paris, Tianjin, and New Delhi have enacted temporary or permanent restrictions to improve local air quality. Using household travel survey data and a research design based on the abrupt shift in how the policy applies to 10-year-old vs. 9-year-old vehicles, we evaluate the impact of Hoy No Circula, one of the earliest and most studied driving restrictions, in Mexico City. In line with previous studies, we find that Hoy No Circula has done little to reduce overall vehicle travel, but we reject the prevailing theory that its lack of success is due to perverse incentives for households to buy second cars. Instead, we highlight the range of other, less costly ways that people adjust behavior to avoid the restrictions. Although no single behavior dominates, most households — particularly those that own older, higher-polluting vehicles — do not use their car every weekday regardless of the restriction. As a result, it is relatively easy to shuffle travel from restricted days to unrestricted days and thus avoid the ban. Shuffling travel days is less costly, more immediately available, and far simpler for most households than buying a second car.
Long and expensive transit trips burden millions of households in many low- and middle-income cit... more Long and expensive transit trips burden millions of households in many low- and middle-income cities. Geography likely plays an important role. In Mexico City, suburban households earn 30% less than urban households, have 40% longer commutes, and spend nearly twice as much per transit trip. This paper examines the relationship between where households live in Mexico City and how much they spend on transit using a large metropolitan household travel survey matched to measures of the built environment. Transit expenditures vary systematically with neighborhood population density, land-use diversity, municipal job density, street network density, and distance to the metro and urban center. These relationships are complex and nonlinear but robust with the inclusion of household income, size, and structure. They are also relatively strong with job density, destination diversity, distance to the metro, and population density being as strongly correlated with transit expenditures as househ...
This article explores differences in the relationship between the built environment and household... more This article explores differences in the relationship between the built environment and households’ car use in Mexico City in 1994 and 2007. After controlling for income and other household attributes, population and job density, transit and highway proximity, destination diversity, intersection density, and accessibility are statistically correlated with households’ weekday car travel in Mexico City. These correlations are generally stronger than those found in studies from U.S. cities and fairly stable over time. Where correlations have changed, they have strengthened. Findings suggest that land use planning can play a modest and growing role in reducing car travel in Mexico City.
This paper examines empirical relationships among commuters’ mode choice, metropolitan urban form... more This paper examines empirical relationships among commuters’ mode choice, metropolitan urban form, and socioeconomic attributes in the 100 largest urban areas in the United States and Mexico. Fitting multinomial logit models to data for more than 5 million commuters and their home urban area, we find several consistent relationships and several important differences in relationships among urban form and travel behavior. In both countries, urban residents living in housing types associated with more centrally located housing in more densely populated urban areas with less roadway are less likely to commute by private vehicle than similar residents in other housing types and other urban areas. In addition to some differences in the strength, significance, and signs of several predictor variables, we find large differences in elasticity estimates across contexts. In particular, the US’s high rates of driving and generally car-friendly urban form mean that even dramatic shifts in urban ...
This paper applies multinomial logit models to examine how metropolitan urban form, housing type ... more This paper applies multinomial logit models to examine how metropolitan urban form, housing type and socioeconomic factors covary with individuals’ commute mode choice for 1.2 million low-income workers in the USA and Mexico. Comparing the commute patterns of low-income households across the USA–Mexico border sheds light on the consistency of estimated relationships across global contexts and the likely transferability of transportation and land use policies from the Global North to the Global South. We find many common relationships on each side of the border, despite substantial socioeconomic and urban differences. For example, wealthier and better-educated low-income workers in low-density metropolitan areas with substantial road supply are more likely to drive to work and less likely to use active modes. We also find some considerable differences between the magnitude and even direction of associations between predictor variables and commuter mode choice. In terms of public poli...
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board
This study investigates the relationship between pedestrian crashes and various socio-demographic... more This study investigates the relationship between pedestrian crashes and various socio-demographic, built environment, traffic exposure, and roadway characteristics across different times of day for both weekdays and weekends. Using the street segment as the unit of analysis, multilevel generalized linear mixed models with negative binomial estimators are applied to examine predictors of pedestrian crashes, including those resulting in severe injuries and fatalities, that occurred in Philadelphia, U.S., between 2010 and 2017. It is found that most of the relationships between the predictor variables and pedestrian crashes are consistent throughout the day for both weekdays and weekends. Although traffic volumes and pedestrian trips fluctuate throughout the day, average daily measures of traffic and pedestrian exposure have consistent relationships with pedestrian crashes throughout the day for both weekdays and weekends. Certain roadway characteristics, such as the amount of secondar...
Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment
License-plate-based driving restrictions are among the highest profile policies for local governm... more License-plate-based driving restrictions are among the highest profile policies for local governments to address congestion and air pollution. Cities as varied as Sao Paulo, Paris, Tianjin, and New Delhi have enacted temporary or permanent restrictions to improve local air quality. Using household travel survey data and a research design based on the abrupt shift in how the policy applies to 10-year-old vs. 9-year-old vehicles, we evaluate the impact of Hoy No Circula, one of the earliest and most studied driving restrictions, in Mexico City. In line with previous studies, we find that Hoy No Circula has done little to reduce overall vehicle travel, but we reject the prevailing theory that its lack of success is due to perverse incentives for households to buy second cars. Instead, we highlight the range of other, less costly ways that people adjust behavior to avoid the restrictions. Although no single behavior dominates, most households — particularly those that own older, higher-polluting vehicles — do not use their car every weekday regardless of the restriction. As a result, it is relatively easy to shuffle travel from restricted days to unrestricted days and thus avoid the ban. Shuffling travel days is less costly, more immediately available, and far simpler for most households than buying a second car.
Long and expensive transit trips burden millions of households in many low- and middle-income cit... more Long and expensive transit trips burden millions of households in many low- and middle-income cities. Geography likely plays an important role. In Mexico City, suburban households earn 30% less than urban households, have 40% longer commutes, and spend nearly twice as much per transit trip. This paper examines the relationship between where households live in Mexico City and how much they spend on transit using a large metropolitan household travel survey matched to measures of the built environment. Transit expenditures vary systematically with neighborhood population density, land-use diversity, municipal job density, street network density, and distance to the metro and urban center. These relationships are complex and nonlinear but robust with the inclusion of household income, size, and structure. They are also relatively strong with job density, destination diversity, distance to the metro, and population density being as strongly correlated with transit expenditures as househ...
This article explores differences in the relationship between the built environment and household... more This article explores differences in the relationship between the built environment and households’ car use in Mexico City in 1994 and 2007. After controlling for income and other household attributes, population and job density, transit and highway proximity, destination diversity, intersection density, and accessibility are statistically correlated with households’ weekday car travel in Mexico City. These correlations are generally stronger than those found in studies from U.S. cities and fairly stable over time. Where correlations have changed, they have strengthened. Findings suggest that land use planning can play a modest and growing role in reducing car travel in Mexico City.
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Papers by Erick Guerra