Projections of expenditures for old age pensions, survivor pensions, and disability pensions were... more Projections of expenditures for old age pensions, survivor pensions, and disability pensions were made for the period 1985-2050 on the basis of future developments in population structure by age, sex, and marital status. Five demographic scenarios were formulated: (i) a Benchmark scenario, with demographic rates kept constant at their 1980-84 level; (ii) a Fertility scenario, with a decline of the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) towards replacement level; (iii) a Mortality scenario, with reductions in mortality rates of 30 percent for females, and 45 percent for males; (iv) a Western scenario, which combines extreme demographic conditions of several West European countries: a TFR of 1.28, proportions never-marrying of one-third, one-third of all marriages ending in divorce, and male and female life expectancies of 74 and 81 years, respectively; and (v) a National scenario, with a TFR declining to 1.6. Under all scenarios, the share of the elderly will rise, and that of children will diminish, with the most significant developments under the Western and the National scenarios. Due to uncertain economic conditions in Poland, results of the pension model should be interpreted with great care. Yet, assuming no changes in the current pension system, the calculations point to a considerable growth in expenditures, ranging from some 65 percent (Benchmark and National scenario) to about 120 percent (Mortality scenario and Western scenario) for the period 1985-2050. The increase is particularly steep during the years 2000-2015. The ratio between contributions and benefits deteriorates from its current level of 1.13 to a ratio between 0.90 (Benchmark scenario) and 0.44 (Western scenario) in the year 2050.
1. Préliminaires 1.1. Nom précis de l’enquête « Histoire de vie familiale, professionnelle et mig... more 1. Préliminaires 1.1. Nom précis de l’enquête « Histoire de vie familiale, professionnelle et migratoire». Dans la langue d’origine : Polskie badanie retrospektywne 1988 « droga yciowa - biografia rodzinna, zawodowa I migracyjna ». 1.2. Problématique et objectifs Les principaux objectifs de l’enquête rétrospective polonaise de 1988 étaient : la reconstitution des histoires familiales, professionnelles et migratoires des personnes interrogées ; l’identification de la situation socio-économique..
The premises and results of a forecast f Poland's population are discussed. The forecast cons... more The premises and results of a forecast f Poland's population are discussed. The forecast consists of 3 parts. The 1st concerns the size and composition (by age, sex, and place of residence) of Poland's population, 1 version being purely biological and the other allowing for migration. A 2nd concerns the number and structure fo households (by size of household, age of household head, and place of residence) established on the basis of headship rates. The last part is a biological forecast of the size and composition of the population (by sex and age) for 9 established urban agglomerations. (author's modified)
The authors analyze the relationships between family life cycle events and migration using data f... more The authors analyze the relationships between family life cycle events and migration using data for Poland. "Two main questions have been asked....1. how does migration influence the future family career of [an] individual? 2. how does an event in [the] family career, e.g., birth [of] a child, influence migration options? Two methods of non-parametric analysis were taken into consideration...a method of standardization and [a] method based on the theory of dependent competing risks. Conclusions following from the application of the competing risks model correspond to those drawn from the method of standardization."
a 1988 Life Course Survey of Family, Occupation, and Migration was conducted in Poland and used i... more a 1988 Life Course Survey of Family, Occupation, and Migration was conducted in Poland and used in this construction of marital status life tables for selected cohorts of women. The respondent population was aged 45-59 years and more than 60 years old. The aim was to evaluate changes in categories of marital status. Methods of construction and estimation procedures followed Schoen's multistage life tables (MSLT) using the cubic integration formula. The results of the estimation and the values of synthetic measures are provided. Parameters were estimated on the basis of retrospective survey data and on reconstruction of mortality data by the adopted method. Adjustments were made for estimated marital status data for the age group over 85 for each cohort. Mortality changes affected increases in life expectancy. The ever-married population increased from 60.5 to 84.3% which accompanied changes in the proportion surviving to age 15 years. Mortality shifts also affected the average age of marriage, which was 24.6 years for the cohort 1909-18 and 23.1 for the cohort 1939-43. The average number of marriages/females remained relatively stable at a level of 1.05-1.08. Changes in marital patterns were reflected in death of a husband, death of a woman, and divorces. Divorces increased by more than 300%. Results of synthetic rates of widowed and divorced revealed that more divorced females than widows marry a second time, which is attributed to the average age at divorce and widowhood. The average age of remarriage of divorced women varied from 40.9 to 42.5 years old and for widows from 48.1 to 55.3 years old. Other observations include that the time remaining in the never-married state became shorter; the time of staying in a married state became longer. The time remaining in a widowed state slightly increased and remained relatively stable. The time of staying in a divorced state increased dramatically.
This "article presents the results of projections of the population of Poland by age, sex and mar... more This "article presents the results of projections of the population of Poland by age, sex and marital status till 2050 under different scenarios of fertility, mortality and nuptiality. These results are used for the analysis of future pension expenditures, the number of retirees, the labour force, and the relation between contributions and benefits. Past demographic trends and the development of social security in the post-war period in Poland are discussed as well."
In the discussion on the main causes of recent fertility decline in Europe, especially with regar... more In the discussion on the main causes of recent fertility decline in Europe, especially with regard to the very low and lowest low-fertility levels in the Mediterranean and Central and Eastern Europe, much attention has been given to economic factors. At the same time, in demographic research the effects of social capital, lifestyle preferences and gender equality in the family and society have received relatively limited attention. These factors are likely to be particularly important for fertility-related decision-making and behaviour in societies facing economic uncertainty along with a transformation of values and norms, such as Poland, which is considered a representative of the Transition Post-Socialist policy configuration type (Hobson and Olah, 2006). Thus, in our study, we focus on fertility intentions in the context of three theories, namely (i) preference theory (Hakim, 2000, 2003a, 2003b; Vitali et al., 2009) (ii) gender equity theory (McDonald, 2000b; Mills et al., 2008; Mills, 2010) and (iii) social capital theory (Coleman, 1990; Buhler and Frątczak, 2007, pp. 359–382).
Projections of expenditures for old age pensions, survivor pensions, and disability pensions were... more Projections of expenditures for old age pensions, survivor pensions, and disability pensions were made for the period 1985-2050 on the basis of future developments in population structure by age, sex, and marital status. Five demographic scenarios were formulated: (i) a Benchmark scenario, with demographic rates kept constant at their 1980-84 level; (ii) a Fertility scenario, with a decline of the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) towards replacement level; (iii) a Mortality scenario, with reductions in mortality rates of 30 percent for females, and 45 percent for males; (iv) a Western scenario, which combines extreme demographic conditions of several West European countries: a TFR of 1.28, proportions never-marrying of one-third, one-third of all marriages ending in divorce, and male and female life expectancies of 74 and 81 years, respectively; and (v) a National scenario, with a TFR declining to 1.6. Under all scenarios, the share of the elderly will rise, and that of children will diminish, with the most significant developments under the Western and the National scenarios. Due to uncertain economic conditions in Poland, results of the pension model should be interpreted with great care. Yet, assuming no changes in the current pension system, the calculations point to a considerable growth in expenditures, ranging from some 65 percent (Benchmark and National scenario) to about 120 percent (Mortality scenario and Western scenario) for the period 1985-2050. The increase is particularly steep during the years 2000-2015. The ratio between contributions and benefits deteriorates from its current level of 1.13 to a ratio between 0.90 (Benchmark scenario) and 0.44 (Western scenario) in the year 2050.
1. Préliminaires 1.1. Nom précis de l’enquête « Histoire de vie familiale, professionnelle et mig... more 1. Préliminaires 1.1. Nom précis de l’enquête « Histoire de vie familiale, professionnelle et migratoire». Dans la langue d’origine : Polskie badanie retrospektywne 1988 « droga yciowa - biografia rodzinna, zawodowa I migracyjna ». 1.2. Problématique et objectifs Les principaux objectifs de l’enquête rétrospective polonaise de 1988 étaient : la reconstitution des histoires familiales, professionnelles et migratoires des personnes interrogées ; l’identification de la situation socio-économique..
The premises and results of a forecast f Poland's population are discussed. The forecast cons... more The premises and results of a forecast f Poland's population are discussed. The forecast consists of 3 parts. The 1st concerns the size and composition (by age, sex, and place of residence) of Poland's population, 1 version being purely biological and the other allowing for migration. A 2nd concerns the number and structure fo households (by size of household, age of household head, and place of residence) established on the basis of headship rates. The last part is a biological forecast of the size and composition of the population (by sex and age) for 9 established urban agglomerations. (author's modified)
The authors analyze the relationships between family life cycle events and migration using data f... more The authors analyze the relationships between family life cycle events and migration using data for Poland. "Two main questions have been asked....1. how does migration influence the future family career of [an] individual? 2. how does an event in [the] family career, e.g., birth [of] a child, influence migration options? Two methods of non-parametric analysis were taken into consideration...a method of standardization and [a] method based on the theory of dependent competing risks. Conclusions following from the application of the competing risks model correspond to those drawn from the method of standardization."
a 1988 Life Course Survey of Family, Occupation, and Migration was conducted in Poland and used i... more a 1988 Life Course Survey of Family, Occupation, and Migration was conducted in Poland and used in this construction of marital status life tables for selected cohorts of women. The respondent population was aged 45-59 years and more than 60 years old. The aim was to evaluate changes in categories of marital status. Methods of construction and estimation procedures followed Schoen's multistage life tables (MSLT) using the cubic integration formula. The results of the estimation and the values of synthetic measures are provided. Parameters were estimated on the basis of retrospective survey data and on reconstruction of mortality data by the adopted method. Adjustments were made for estimated marital status data for the age group over 85 for each cohort. Mortality changes affected increases in life expectancy. The ever-married population increased from 60.5 to 84.3% which accompanied changes in the proportion surviving to age 15 years. Mortality shifts also affected the average age of marriage, which was 24.6 years for the cohort 1909-18 and 23.1 for the cohort 1939-43. The average number of marriages/females remained relatively stable at a level of 1.05-1.08. Changes in marital patterns were reflected in death of a husband, death of a woman, and divorces. Divorces increased by more than 300%. Results of synthetic rates of widowed and divorced revealed that more divorced females than widows marry a second time, which is attributed to the average age at divorce and widowhood. The average age of remarriage of divorced women varied from 40.9 to 42.5 years old and for widows from 48.1 to 55.3 years old. Other observations include that the time remaining in the never-married state became shorter; the time of staying in a married state became longer. The time remaining in a widowed state slightly increased and remained relatively stable. The time of staying in a divorced state increased dramatically.
This "article presents the results of projections of the population of Poland by age, sex and mar... more This "article presents the results of projections of the population of Poland by age, sex and marital status till 2050 under different scenarios of fertility, mortality and nuptiality. These results are used for the analysis of future pension expenditures, the number of retirees, the labour force, and the relation between contributions and benefits. Past demographic trends and the development of social security in the post-war period in Poland are discussed as well."
In the discussion on the main causes of recent fertility decline in Europe, especially with regar... more In the discussion on the main causes of recent fertility decline in Europe, especially with regard to the very low and lowest low-fertility levels in the Mediterranean and Central and Eastern Europe, much attention has been given to economic factors. At the same time, in demographic research the effects of social capital, lifestyle preferences and gender equality in the family and society have received relatively limited attention. These factors are likely to be particularly important for fertility-related decision-making and behaviour in societies facing economic uncertainty along with a transformation of values and norms, such as Poland, which is considered a representative of the Transition Post-Socialist policy configuration type (Hobson and Olah, 2006). Thus, in our study, we focus on fertility intentions in the context of three theories, namely (i) preference theory (Hakim, 2000, 2003a, 2003b; Vitali et al., 2009) (ii) gender equity theory (McDonald, 2000b; Mills et al., 2008; Mills, 2010) and (iii) social capital theory (Coleman, 1990; Buhler and Frątczak, 2007, pp. 359–382).
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