Acknowledgement: most data analyses reported in this paper would not have been possible without V... more Acknowledgement: most data analyses reported in this paper would not have been possible without Viktor Szigetvári, Csaba Tordai and Balázs Vető (2011) disaggregating the precinctlevel results of the 2002, 2006 and 2010 Hungarian elections according to the 2011 constituency boundaries and widely sharing their results with the public. I am also grateful for numerous conversations about the topic to Juraj Medzihorsky and many others whose names could not be listed exhaustively. Obviously, none of the above are responsible for my errors.
I provide links to most of my work (papers, books and datasets) at http://www.personal.ceu.hu/dep... more I provide links to most of my work (papers, books and datasets) at http://www.personal.ceu.hu/departs/personal/Gabor_Toka/ The fields covered include comparative voting behavior and political attitudes, party systems, elections, political communication, mass media.
The paper offers a cross-national empirical analysis that connects two lines of arguments about t... more The paper offers a cross-national empirical analysis that connects two lines of arguments about the determinants of election outcomes. The first posits that because of correlations between socio-economic status and some socio-demographic variables on the one hand, and both vote choice and electoral participation on the other, election results may be significantly different from those observed if turnout approached 100 percent. A parallel argument suggests that despite voters' occasionally skilful use of ingenious information shortcuts, observed election outcomes still differ from those that would obtain in an electorate fully informed about the given choice set. The apparent implication of both arguments is that it is the less resourceful groups whose underlying preferences remain underrepresented at the polls. The paper develops at some length on the concepts involved in these propositions and the methodological problems that their empirical testing poses. Finally, data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems is utilized to empirically evaluate the above propositions.
Acknowledgement: most data analyses reported in this paper would not have been possible without V... more Acknowledgement: most data analyses reported in this paper would not have been possible without Viktor Szigetvári, Csaba Tordai and Balázs Vető (2011) disaggregating the precinctlevel results of the 2002, 2006 and 2010 Hungarian elections according to the 2011 constituency boundaries and widely sharing their results with the public. I am also grateful for numerous conversations about the topic to Juraj Medzihorsky and many others whose names could not be listed exhaustively. Obviously, none of the above are responsible for my errors.
I provide links to most of my work (papers, books and datasets) at http://www.personal.ceu.hu/dep... more I provide links to most of my work (papers, books and datasets) at http://www.personal.ceu.hu/departs/personal/Gabor_Toka/ The fields covered include comparative voting behavior and political attitudes, party systems, elections, political communication, mass media.
The paper offers a cross-national empirical analysis that connects two lines of arguments about t... more The paper offers a cross-national empirical analysis that connects two lines of arguments about the determinants of election outcomes. The first posits that because of correlations between socio-economic status and some socio-demographic variables on the one hand, and both vote choice and electoral participation on the other, election results may be significantly different from those observed if turnout approached 100 percent. A parallel argument suggests that despite voters' occasionally skilful use of ingenious information shortcuts, observed election outcomes still differ from those that would obtain in an electorate fully informed about the given choice set. The apparent implication of both arguments is that it is the less resourceful groups whose underlying preferences remain underrepresented at the polls. The paper develops at some length on the concepts involved in these propositions and the methodological problems that their empirical testing poses. Finally, data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems is utilized to empirically evaluate the above propositions.
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