I am Hassen Jemal BekerMsc student at Arba Minch University Department of water resource and Irrigation EngineeringSpecialized with HydrologyI have defensing my Thesis finding now
ABSTRACT
This study was conducted to evaluate the impact of future climate change on available S... more ABSTRACT This study was conducted to evaluate the impact of future climate change on available Surface water resource of the Erer-Mojo River Sub basin (EMRSB), Wabe-Shebele basin, Ethiopia. High resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from multiple climate models having data Representative Concentration pathways (RCPs) prepared by the IWMI were used for the prediction. The predicted future discharge (streamflow) was based on climate scenarios data of baseline period of 1986-2015 and for future with two time windows i.e. 2055 (2042-2070) and 2085 (2072-2100) on a monthly time step after bias correction was performed to both precipitation and temperature of for climate model under each RCP scenarios. The SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model was used to simulate water balance and streamflow from SWAT water balance system after sensitivity analysis, calibration (1986-1993) and validation (1994-2000) of the model for the EMRSB performed with SUFI-2 program in SWAT-CUP model. The results of the sensitivity analysis indicated that CN2, CANMX, CH_K2, and RFINC, CNCOEF, CH_N2 followed by, OV_N, SOL_K, RCHRG_DP, and SLSOIL, discerned as the most sensitive parameters. The SWAT model performance with a coefficient of determination (R²) from 0.61 to 0.82 and Nash Sutcliffe value (ENS) of 0.75 to 0.84 indicated that the model was performed well to predict the streamflow in EMRBS. The results of the mean annual future percent changes in the river discharge of the EMRSB showed an increased +2.1% change from baseline period. The percent change in mean annual streamflow increased by +36% in the 2055 and decreased by -32.4% in 2085. The seasonal streamflow present change was increase by 6.5%, 9.4% for Spring(February-May) and Winter (October-January) season respectively, while decreasing by -3.2% during the summer seasons (June - September). The 2055 percent change of seasonal streamflow was increase by 43%, 29.2% and 44% while 2085 decreased by -30.8%, -35.6 and -25.2% during the spring, summer and winter seasons, respectively. In average, the future RCP scenarios showed the positive impact on EMRSB streamflow percent change with RCP2.6 (-3.9%), RCP4.5 (13.4%) and RCP8.5 (-3.1%), respectively. For the increased and decreased in EMRSB streamflow in future scenarios from baseline period, RCP2.6 scenario exhibited the leading contribution in quantifying high uncertainty in future flow volume with +71.2% in the 2055 and -78.9% in 2085. The increase in streamflow in 2055 will have a paramount importance for agricultural activities practice while the decreased streamflow in 2085 will have the negative impact on the agricultural production. Therefore, this study concluded that any effect on this river reflected the decrease in flow would directly affect the ongoing water resource developments planned and socio economic development in the area, which recommended the additional study and intervention of decision maker.
Keywords: Future climate change impact, RCP, CORDEX, SWAT model of Erer Mojo River Sub Basin (EMRSB), Wabe-Shebele Basin, Ethiopia.
ABSTRACT
This study was conducted to evaluate the impact of future climate change on available S... more ABSTRACT This study was conducted to evaluate the impact of future climate change on available Surface water resource of the Erer-Mojo River Sub basin (EMRSB), Wabe-Shebele basin, Ethiopia. High resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from multiple climate models having data Representative Concentration pathways (RCPs) prepared by the IWMI were used for the prediction. The predicted future discharge (streamflow) was based on climate scenarios data of baseline period of 1986-2015 and for future with two time windows i.e. 2055 (2042-2070) and 2085 (2072-2100) on a monthly time step after bias correction was performed to both precipitation and temperature of for climate model under each RCP scenarios. The SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model was used to simulate water balance and streamflow from SWAT water balance system after sensitivity analysis, calibration (1986-1993) and validation (1994-2000) of the model for the EMRSB performed with SUFI-2 program in SWAT-CUP model. The results of the sensitivity analysis indicated that CN2, CANMX, CH_K2, and RFINC, CNCOEF, CH_N2 followed by, OV_N, SOL_K, RCHRG_DP, and SLSOIL, discerned as the most sensitive parameters. The SWAT model performance with a coefficient of determination (R²) from 0.61 to 0.82 and Nash Sutcliffe value (ENS) of 0.75 to 0.84 indicated that the model was performed well to predict the streamflow in EMRBS. The results of the mean annual future percent changes in the river discharge of the EMRSB showed an increased +2.1% change from baseline period. The percent change in mean annual streamflow increased by +36% in the 2055 and decreased by -32.4% in 2085. The seasonal streamflow present change was increase by 6.5%, 9.4% for Spring(February-May) and Winter (October-January) season respectively, while decreasing by -3.2% during the summer seasons (June - September). The 2055 percent change of seasonal streamflow was increase by 43%, 29.2% and 44% while 2085 decreased by -30.8%, -35.6 and -25.2% during the spring, summer and winter seasons, respectively. In average, the future RCP scenarios showed the positive impact on EMRSB streamflow percent change with RCP2.6 (-3.9%), RCP4.5 (13.4%) and RCP8.5 (-3.1%), respectively. For the increased and decreased in EMRSB streamflow in future scenarios from baseline period, RCP2.6 scenario exhibited the leading contribution in quantifying high uncertainty in future flow volume with +71.2% in the 2055 and -78.9% in 2085. The increase in streamflow in 2055 will have a paramount importance for agricultural activities practice while the decreased streamflow in 2085 will have the negative impact on the agricultural production. Therefore, this study concluded that any effect on this river reflected the decrease in flow would directly affect the ongoing water resource developments planned and socio economic development in the area, which recommended the additional study and intervention of decision maker.
Keywords: Future climate change impact, RCP, CORDEX, SWAT model of Erer Mojo River Sub Basin (EMRSB), Wabe-Shebele Basin, Ethiopia.
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Papers by Hassen Jemal
This study was conducted to evaluate the impact of future climate change on available Surface water resource of the Erer-Mojo River Sub basin (EMRSB), Wabe-Shebele basin, Ethiopia. High resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from multiple climate models having data Representative Concentration pathways (RCPs) prepared by the IWMI were used for the prediction. The predicted future discharge (streamflow) was based on climate scenarios data of baseline period of 1986-2015 and for future with two time windows i.e. 2055 (2042-2070) and 2085 (2072-2100) on a monthly time step after bias correction was performed to both precipitation and temperature of for climate model under each RCP scenarios. The SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model was used to simulate water balance and streamflow from SWAT water balance system after sensitivity analysis, calibration (1986-1993) and validation (1994-2000) of the model for the EMRSB performed with SUFI-2 program in SWAT-CUP model. The results of the sensitivity analysis indicated that CN2, CANMX, CH_K2, and RFINC, CNCOEF, CH_N2 followed by, OV_N, SOL_K, RCHRG_DP, and SLSOIL, discerned as the most sensitive parameters. The SWAT model performance with a coefficient of determination (R²) from 0.61 to 0.82 and Nash Sutcliffe value (ENS) of 0.75 to 0.84 indicated that the model was performed well to predict the streamflow in EMRBS. The results of the mean annual future percent changes in the river discharge of the EMRSB showed an increased +2.1% change from baseline period. The percent change in mean annual streamflow increased by +36% in the 2055 and decreased by -32.4% in 2085. The seasonal streamflow present change was increase by 6.5%, 9.4% for Spring(February-May) and Winter (October-January) season respectively, while decreasing by -3.2% during the summer seasons (June - September). The 2055 percent change of seasonal streamflow was increase by 43%, 29.2% and 44% while 2085 decreased by -30.8%, -35.6 and -25.2% during the spring, summer and winter seasons, respectively. In average, the future RCP scenarios showed the positive impact on EMRSB streamflow percent change with RCP2.6 (-3.9%), RCP4.5 (13.4%) and RCP8.5 (-3.1%), respectively. For the increased and decreased in EMRSB streamflow in future scenarios from baseline period, RCP2.6 scenario exhibited the leading contribution in quantifying high uncertainty in future flow volume with +71.2% in the 2055 and -78.9% in 2085. The increase in streamflow in 2055 will have a paramount importance for agricultural activities practice while the decreased streamflow in 2085 will have the negative impact on the agricultural production. Therefore, this study concluded that any effect on this river reflected the decrease in flow would directly affect the ongoing water resource developments planned and socio economic development in the area, which recommended the additional study and intervention of decision maker.
Keywords: Future climate change impact, RCP, CORDEX, SWAT model of Erer Mojo River Sub Basin (EMRSB), Wabe-Shebele Basin, Ethiopia.
This study was conducted to evaluate the impact of future climate change on available Surface water resource of the Erer-Mojo River Sub basin (EMRSB), Wabe-Shebele basin, Ethiopia. High resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from multiple climate models having data Representative Concentration pathways (RCPs) prepared by the IWMI were used for the prediction. The predicted future discharge (streamflow) was based on climate scenarios data of baseline period of 1986-2015 and for future with two time windows i.e. 2055 (2042-2070) and 2085 (2072-2100) on a monthly time step after bias correction was performed to both precipitation and temperature of for climate model under each RCP scenarios. The SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model was used to simulate water balance and streamflow from SWAT water balance system after sensitivity analysis, calibration (1986-1993) and validation (1994-2000) of the model for the EMRSB performed with SUFI-2 program in SWAT-CUP model. The results of the sensitivity analysis indicated that CN2, CANMX, CH_K2, and RFINC, CNCOEF, CH_N2 followed by, OV_N, SOL_K, RCHRG_DP, and SLSOIL, discerned as the most sensitive parameters. The SWAT model performance with a coefficient of determination (R²) from 0.61 to 0.82 and Nash Sutcliffe value (ENS) of 0.75 to 0.84 indicated that the model was performed well to predict the streamflow in EMRBS. The results of the mean annual future percent changes in the river discharge of the EMRSB showed an increased +2.1% change from baseline period. The percent change in mean annual streamflow increased by +36% in the 2055 and decreased by -32.4% in 2085. The seasonal streamflow present change was increase by 6.5%, 9.4% for Spring(February-May) and Winter (October-January) season respectively, while decreasing by -3.2% during the summer seasons (June - September). The 2055 percent change of seasonal streamflow was increase by 43%, 29.2% and 44% while 2085 decreased by -30.8%, -35.6 and -25.2% during the spring, summer and winter seasons, respectively. In average, the future RCP scenarios showed the positive impact on EMRSB streamflow percent change with RCP2.6 (-3.9%), RCP4.5 (13.4%) and RCP8.5 (-3.1%), respectively. For the increased and decreased in EMRSB streamflow in future scenarios from baseline period, RCP2.6 scenario exhibited the leading contribution in quantifying high uncertainty in future flow volume with +71.2% in the 2055 and -78.9% in 2085. The increase in streamflow in 2055 will have a paramount importance for agricultural activities practice while the decreased streamflow in 2085 will have the negative impact on the agricultural production. Therefore, this study concluded that any effect on this river reflected the decrease in flow would directly affect the ongoing water resource developments planned and socio economic development in the area, which recommended the additional study and intervention of decision maker.
Keywords: Future climate change impact, RCP, CORDEX, SWAT model of Erer Mojo River Sub Basin (EMRSB), Wabe-Shebele Basin, Ethiopia.