Winemaking has a predominant economic, social and environmental relevance in several European cou... more Winemaking has a predominant economic, social and environmental relevance in several European countries. Studies addressing the influence of climate variability and change in viticulture are particularly pertinent, as climate is one of the main conditioning factors of this activity. In this context, bioclimatic indices are a useful zoning tool, allowing the description of the suitability of a particular region for
ABSTRACT Future climate in the Mediterranean grapevine growing regions will be characterized by s... more ABSTRACT Future climate in the Mediterranean grapevine growing regions will be characterized by severe summer conditions, with lower water availability, elevated temperature and elevated solar irradiance (visible and ultraviolet). These projected conditions are of utmost relevance for agricultural practices, since greatly influence the growth and yield, as they exhibit additive and interactive effects on plant physiology. Therefore, it is crucial to develop short-term autonomous adaptation measures, both by economic and environmental sustainability reasons. With this in mind, the protective role of foliar kaolin clay particles (KL) application in the most important Portuguese wine area (Douro region) was examined. The results obtained in 2012 season revealed that KL had a significant positive effect on leaf temperature, stomatal conductance, net photosynthesis, intrinsic water use efficiency, photosynthetic pigments and yield. Thus, kaolin proved to be effective in alleviating the negative effects of summer stress.
Viticultural zoning not only gives valuable information about the suitability of a particular reg... more Viticultural zoning not only gives valuable information about the suitability of a particular region for wine production, but also helps in determining the most adequate varieties for a local site, or even to identify constraints for grapevine production. In addition, regarding the socio-economic relevance of this crop in a context of new challenges enforced by a changing climate, a thorough assessment of its potential future adaptation can only be achieved through scientific analyses. The demarcation of new wine regions is also critically dependent on these studies. Therefore, the present research was focused on developing a computer based model of agroclimatic grapevine zoning at a macroclimate (global) scale. For that purpose, several agroclimatic indices (e.g., thermal and heliothermal indices) were calculated worldwide. In fact, agroclimatic indices are widely used when relating the viticultural climate and the elements of grape and wine quality. Their calculation was carried out by, first, using climatic variables (mostly daily maximum and minimum temperatures and daily precipitation amounts) from the NCEP reanalysis dataset and, second, using data from a general circulation atmospheric model for a specific future emission scenario (A1B). A bioclimatic atlas showing the global fields of the different indices was then produced for two separate recent-past periods (1961-1990 and 1990-2008) and for a future scenario (2030-2050). The comparison between the bioclimatic fields defined for the two different recent-past periods enables the detection of long-term trends, while the comparison of these two periods with the future period allows the isolation of projected changes. Based on the results of these agroclimatic indices and to simplify the analysis, the dimensionality of the problem was reduced by considering a composite index. This provides a macro-characterization of worldwide areas where this crop may preferentially grow, as well as an identification of likely changes under human-induced forcing. As such, it can be a useful tool for viticultural zoning under a climate change scenario, also giving an important contribution for the development of adaptation and mitigation measures in current wine regions, in some cases already struggling due to recent climate variability.
Winemaking has a predominant economic, social and environmental relevance in several European cou... more Winemaking has a predominant economic, social and environmental relevance in several European countries. Studies addressing the influence of climate variability and change in viticulture are particularly pertinent, as climate is one of the main conditioning factors of this activity. In this context, bioclimatic indices are a useful zoning tool, allowing the description of the suitability of a particular region for
ABSTRACT Viticulture and wine production represent a main economic activity of the agro-productio... more ABSTRACT Viticulture and wine production represent a main economic activity of the agro-production sector in Portugal, particularly over some world famous winemaking regions, such as the Port Wine / Douro Valley, Minho and Alentejo. As viticultural zoning provides valuable information regarding the suitability of a given grapevine variety to local climatic conditions, it is thus of great interest to the Portuguese winemaking sector. Furthermore, projected future climates are also likely to have important impacts on this zoning. Therefore, in the current study we aim at 1) discussing the current viticultural zoning in Portugal, and 2) assessing its future changes under anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing (A1B SRES scenario) in the 2011-2070 time period. A set of appropriate bioclimatic indices, computed using temperatures and precipitations defined on a daily basis, is used for viticultural zoning. For the assessment of the recent-past conditions an observational gridded dataset (E-OBS) is used, while for future climate change projections, a 16-member ensemble of model experiments (ENSEMBLES project dataset), is considered. Overall, statistically significant increases (decreases) in the thermally-based (humidity-based) indices are projected to occur in the future throughout the country, particularly over its southern and innermost regions. All these changes are in agreement with the widely accepted projections for warmer and dryer Southern European climates. High impacts are found in the most important winemaking regions in Portugal, highlighting the urgent need for developing suitable adaptation and mitigation measures so as to cope with a changing climate. A reshaping of the viticultural regions is thereby expected to occur within the next decades over Portugal.
ABSTRACT The assessment of climate change impacts on viticulture is often carried out using regio... more ABSTRACT The assessment of climate change impacts on viticulture is often carried out using regional climate model (RCM) outputs. These studies rely on either multi-model ensembles or on single-model approaches. The RCM-ensembles account for uncertainties inherent to the different models. In this study, using a 16-RCM ensemble under the IPCC A1B scenario, the climate change signal (future minus recent-past, 2041-2070 - 1961-2000) of 4 bioclimatic indices (Huglin Index - HI, Dryness Index - DI, Hydrothermal Index - HyI and CompI - Composite Index) over mainland Portugal is analysed. A normalized interquartile range (NIQR) of the 16-member ensemble for each bioclimatic index is assessed in order to quantify the ensemble uncertainty. The results show significant increases in the HI index over most of Portugal, with higher values in Alentejo, Trás-os-Montes and Douro/Porto wine regions, also depicting very low uncertainty. Conversely, the decreases in the DI pattern throughout the country show large uncertainties, except in Minho (northwestern Portugal), where precipitation reaches the highest amounts in Portugal. The HyI shows significant decreases in northwestern Portugal, with relatively low uncertainty all across the country. The CompI depicts significant decreases over Alentejo and increases over Minho, though decreases over Alentejo reveal high uncertainty, while increases over Minho show low uncertainty. The assessment of the uncertainty in climate change projections is of great relevance for the wine industry. Quantifying this uncertainty is crucial, since different models may lead to quite different outcomes and may thereby be as crucial as climate change itself to the winemaking sector. This work is supported by European Union Funds (FEDER/COMPETE - Operational Competitiveness Programme) and by national funds (FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology) under the project FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-022692.
Climate change projections for spatial-temporal distributions of temperatures in Portugal are ana... more Climate change projections for spatial-temporal distributions of temperatures in Portugal are analysed using a 13-member ensemble of regional climate model simulations (A1B scenario for 2041-2070). Bias corrections are carried out using an observational gridded dataset (E-OBS) and equally-weighted ensemble statistics are discussed. Clear shifts toward higher future seasonal mean temperatures, in central tendency and also in both tails of the distributions, are found (2-4 • C), particularly for summer and autumn maximum temperatures. Furthermore, frequencies of occurrence of daily extremes are projected to increase, particularly in summer maximum temperatures over inland Portugal. Wintertime changes are weaker than in other seasons.
ABSTRACT Portuguese vitiviniculture represents an extremely important economic activity for the a... more ABSTRACT Portuguese vitiviniculture represents an extremely important economic activity for the agricultural sector, particularly for some renowned winemaking regions, such as Alentejo, Dão, Douro, and Minho. Viticultural zoning allows tying the suitability of a given grapevine variety to the local soil and climatic conditions. Given the existing climate variability in the Portuguese territory and its likely changes in the future, this zoning is thus of utmost interest. In this study, the current viticultural zoning in Portugal is discussed, as well as changes induced by climate change in the period 2011-2070. For this purpose, daily temperatures and precipitation rates were used to calculate the Huglin, cool night, dryness and hydrothermal indices. A composite index based on the previous indices was also calculated. For the assessment of the recent past conditions (1961-2000), an observational dataset (E-OBS) was used, while for future climate projections, a dataset comprising 16 simulations of regional climate models (produced by the ENSEMBLES project) was considered. In the future climate, statistically signifi cant increases in the thermal indices are projected to occur in the next decades, while for the precipitation-based indices decreases might be expected, particularly over the south and innermost regions of Portugal. A reshaping of the main Portuguese winemaking regions is likely to occur in the upcoming decades, therefore emphasizing the need for the development of appropriate measures for the adaptation to or mitigation of these climatic changes at the level of varieties and rootstocks used, as well as at the implemented cultural practices, keeping the typicity and wine styles.
In Portugal, the wine-grape sector has a crucial economic, social and cultural relevance, especia... more In Portugal, the wine-grape sector has a crucial economic, social and cultural relevance, especially in many inland regions of the country namely the Alto Douro Wine Region. It is the oldest legislated viticultural region in the world (since 1756) and has a typical Mediterranean climate with hot and dry summers. Recent-past temperature trends, focusing on European viticultural regions, show that the growing season mean temperatures have increased nearly 2ºC from 1950 to 2004. Future projections point to temperature increases and precipitation changes in the growing season, which may bring changes in grapevine physiology and consequently in yield and wine quality. Although grapevines have several survival strategies, the amounting evidence for significant climate change in the upcoming decades urges adaptation measures to be taken. Short term adaptation measures should be considered as the first protection strategy against climate change and should focus on specific threats. Among th...
Aim : To investigate the characteristics, relationships and trends in the phenology of four wineg... more Aim : To investigate the characteristics, relationships and trends in the phenology of four winegrape varieties and associated temperature relationships in the Lisbon wine region(LWR),between1990and2011.
Portugal is currently the 11th wine producing country in the world and viticulture has a strong i... more Portugal is currently the 11th wine producing country in the world and viticulture has a strong influence in the country’s economic stability and growth. For this reason, understanding the potential impacts of climate change on the development of this crop is crucial. The use of high spatial resolution datasets has demonstrated to be of great importance in viticultural zoning research, since it is necessary to capture the effect of environmental variability on this crop. This is particularly relevant regarding viticultural regions with steep climate gradients, where large scale assessments cannot truly represent the vineyard climate. In this study, the current and future viticultural zoning in the Portugal is depicted. This is achieved by computing a set of bioclimatic indices for the present (1950-2000), using an observational dataset at 1km resolution, and for the future (2041-2070), using an RCM ensemble at 25km resolution. A downscaling methodology, the ‘delta method’, is applie...
ABSTRACT Establishing the role of climate on wine production is one major goal of the winemaking ... more ABSTRACT Establishing the role of climate on wine production is one major goal of the winemaking sector. Por-tuguese viticulture plays a key role in national exports of agro-food products. The Minho Wine Region,in particular, produces a unique wine type ‘Vinho Verde’ that has been taking its stand as a prominentinternational brand. The present study aims at improving the understanding of climate-yield relation-ships in this region. A long wine production series (1945–2010) is used and some transformations areundertaken for robust statistical relationships. A stepwise methodology is applied to select regressorsfor logistic modeling of production classes (low, normal and high). New weather regimes are developedto assess large-scale atmospheric forcing and cycles in production are isolated by a spectral analysis. Tenregressors are selected: dryness and hydrothermal indices, 3-yr lagged production, mean temperaturesin March and June, precipitation in June and frequencies of occurrence of two regimes in May, and of onein February and September. Overall, moderate water stress during the growing season, high production3-yrs before, cool weather in February–March, settled-warm weather in May, warm moist weather inJune and relatively cool conditions preceding harvest are generally favorable to high wine production.Some of these relationships demonstrate the singularity of Minho Wine Region and justify the presentstudy. The model shows high skill (72% after cross-validation), stressing not only the important roleplayed by atmospheric conditions, but also its value for prediction and management.
Optimum climate conditions for grapevine growth are limited geographically and may be further cha... more Optimum climate conditions for grapevine growth are limited geographically and may be further challenged by a changing climate. Due to the importance of the winemaking sector in Europe, the assessment of future scenarios for European viticulture is of foremost relevance. A 16-member ensemble of model transient experiments (generated by the ENSEMBLES project) under a greenhouse gas emission scenario and for two future periods (2011-2040 and 2041-2070) is used in assessing climate change projections for six viticultural zoning indices. After model data calibration/validation using an observational gridded daily dataset, changes in their ensemble means and inter-annual variability are discussed, also taking into account the model uncertainties. Over southern Europe, the projected warming combined with severe dryness in the growing season is expected to have detrimental impacts on the grapevine development and wine quality, requiring measures to cope with heat and water stress. Furthermore, the expected warming and the maintenance of moderately wet growing seasons over most of the central European winemaking regions may require a selection of new grapevine varieties, as well as an enhancement of pest/disease control. New winemaking regions may arise over northern Europe and high altitude areas, when considering climatic factors only. An enhanced inter-annual variability is also projected over most of Europe. All these future changes pose new challenges for the European winemaking sector. Keywords European viticultural zoning . Bioclimatic indices . Climate change . Ensemble projections . Viticulture . Model uncertainties Abbreviations CompI Composite index DI Dryness index ECA&D European climate assessment and dataset GCM Global climate model GSP Growing season precipitation GSS Growing season suitability HI Huglin index HyI Hydrothermal index IPCC International panel on climate change MOS Model output statistics NIQR Normalized interquartile range RCM Regional climate model TR Total range SRES Synthesis report on emission scenarios Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (
Winemaking has a predominant economic, social and environmental relevance in several European cou... more Winemaking has a predominant economic, social and environmental relevance in several European countries. Studies addressing the influence of climate variability and change in viticulture are particularly pertinent, as climate is one of the main conditioning factors of this activity. In this context, bioclimatic indices are a useful zoning tool, allowing the description of the suitability of a particular region for
ABSTRACT Future climate in the Mediterranean grapevine growing regions will be characterized by s... more ABSTRACT Future climate in the Mediterranean grapevine growing regions will be characterized by severe summer conditions, with lower water availability, elevated temperature and elevated solar irradiance (visible and ultraviolet). These projected conditions are of utmost relevance for agricultural practices, since greatly influence the growth and yield, as they exhibit additive and interactive effects on plant physiology. Therefore, it is crucial to develop short-term autonomous adaptation measures, both by economic and environmental sustainability reasons. With this in mind, the protective role of foliar kaolin clay particles (KL) application in the most important Portuguese wine area (Douro region) was examined. The results obtained in 2012 season revealed that KL had a significant positive effect on leaf temperature, stomatal conductance, net photosynthesis, intrinsic water use efficiency, photosynthetic pigments and yield. Thus, kaolin proved to be effective in alleviating the negative effects of summer stress.
Viticultural zoning not only gives valuable information about the suitability of a particular reg... more Viticultural zoning not only gives valuable information about the suitability of a particular region for wine production, but also helps in determining the most adequate varieties for a local site, or even to identify constraints for grapevine production. In addition, regarding the socio-economic relevance of this crop in a context of new challenges enforced by a changing climate, a thorough assessment of its potential future adaptation can only be achieved through scientific analyses. The demarcation of new wine regions is also critically dependent on these studies. Therefore, the present research was focused on developing a computer based model of agroclimatic grapevine zoning at a macroclimate (global) scale. For that purpose, several agroclimatic indices (e.g., thermal and heliothermal indices) were calculated worldwide. In fact, agroclimatic indices are widely used when relating the viticultural climate and the elements of grape and wine quality. Their calculation was carried out by, first, using climatic variables (mostly daily maximum and minimum temperatures and daily precipitation amounts) from the NCEP reanalysis dataset and, second, using data from a general circulation atmospheric model for a specific future emission scenario (A1B). A bioclimatic atlas showing the global fields of the different indices was then produced for two separate recent-past periods (1961-1990 and 1990-2008) and for a future scenario (2030-2050). The comparison between the bioclimatic fields defined for the two different recent-past periods enables the detection of long-term trends, while the comparison of these two periods with the future period allows the isolation of projected changes. Based on the results of these agroclimatic indices and to simplify the analysis, the dimensionality of the problem was reduced by considering a composite index. This provides a macro-characterization of worldwide areas where this crop may preferentially grow, as well as an identification of likely changes under human-induced forcing. As such, it can be a useful tool for viticultural zoning under a climate change scenario, also giving an important contribution for the development of adaptation and mitigation measures in current wine regions, in some cases already struggling due to recent climate variability.
Winemaking has a predominant economic, social and environmental relevance in several European cou... more Winemaking has a predominant economic, social and environmental relevance in several European countries. Studies addressing the influence of climate variability and change in viticulture are particularly pertinent, as climate is one of the main conditioning factors of this activity. In this context, bioclimatic indices are a useful zoning tool, allowing the description of the suitability of a particular region for
ABSTRACT Viticulture and wine production represent a main economic activity of the agro-productio... more ABSTRACT Viticulture and wine production represent a main economic activity of the agro-production sector in Portugal, particularly over some world famous winemaking regions, such as the Port Wine / Douro Valley, Minho and Alentejo. As viticultural zoning provides valuable information regarding the suitability of a given grapevine variety to local climatic conditions, it is thus of great interest to the Portuguese winemaking sector. Furthermore, projected future climates are also likely to have important impacts on this zoning. Therefore, in the current study we aim at 1) discussing the current viticultural zoning in Portugal, and 2) assessing its future changes under anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing (A1B SRES scenario) in the 2011-2070 time period. A set of appropriate bioclimatic indices, computed using temperatures and precipitations defined on a daily basis, is used for viticultural zoning. For the assessment of the recent-past conditions an observational gridded dataset (E-OBS) is used, while for future climate change projections, a 16-member ensemble of model experiments (ENSEMBLES project dataset), is considered. Overall, statistically significant increases (decreases) in the thermally-based (humidity-based) indices are projected to occur in the future throughout the country, particularly over its southern and innermost regions. All these changes are in agreement with the widely accepted projections for warmer and dryer Southern European climates. High impacts are found in the most important winemaking regions in Portugal, highlighting the urgent need for developing suitable adaptation and mitigation measures so as to cope with a changing climate. A reshaping of the viticultural regions is thereby expected to occur within the next decades over Portugal.
ABSTRACT The assessment of climate change impacts on viticulture is often carried out using regio... more ABSTRACT The assessment of climate change impacts on viticulture is often carried out using regional climate model (RCM) outputs. These studies rely on either multi-model ensembles or on single-model approaches. The RCM-ensembles account for uncertainties inherent to the different models. In this study, using a 16-RCM ensemble under the IPCC A1B scenario, the climate change signal (future minus recent-past, 2041-2070 - 1961-2000) of 4 bioclimatic indices (Huglin Index - HI, Dryness Index - DI, Hydrothermal Index - HyI and CompI - Composite Index) over mainland Portugal is analysed. A normalized interquartile range (NIQR) of the 16-member ensemble for each bioclimatic index is assessed in order to quantify the ensemble uncertainty. The results show significant increases in the HI index over most of Portugal, with higher values in Alentejo, Trás-os-Montes and Douro/Porto wine regions, also depicting very low uncertainty. Conversely, the decreases in the DI pattern throughout the country show large uncertainties, except in Minho (northwestern Portugal), where precipitation reaches the highest amounts in Portugal. The HyI shows significant decreases in northwestern Portugal, with relatively low uncertainty all across the country. The CompI depicts significant decreases over Alentejo and increases over Minho, though decreases over Alentejo reveal high uncertainty, while increases over Minho show low uncertainty. The assessment of the uncertainty in climate change projections is of great relevance for the wine industry. Quantifying this uncertainty is crucial, since different models may lead to quite different outcomes and may thereby be as crucial as climate change itself to the winemaking sector. This work is supported by European Union Funds (FEDER/COMPETE - Operational Competitiveness Programme) and by national funds (FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology) under the project FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-022692.
Climate change projections for spatial-temporal distributions of temperatures in Portugal are ana... more Climate change projections for spatial-temporal distributions of temperatures in Portugal are analysed using a 13-member ensemble of regional climate model simulations (A1B scenario for 2041-2070). Bias corrections are carried out using an observational gridded dataset (E-OBS) and equally-weighted ensemble statistics are discussed. Clear shifts toward higher future seasonal mean temperatures, in central tendency and also in both tails of the distributions, are found (2-4 • C), particularly for summer and autumn maximum temperatures. Furthermore, frequencies of occurrence of daily extremes are projected to increase, particularly in summer maximum temperatures over inland Portugal. Wintertime changes are weaker than in other seasons.
ABSTRACT Portuguese vitiviniculture represents an extremely important economic activity for the a... more ABSTRACT Portuguese vitiviniculture represents an extremely important economic activity for the agricultural sector, particularly for some renowned winemaking regions, such as Alentejo, Dão, Douro, and Minho. Viticultural zoning allows tying the suitability of a given grapevine variety to the local soil and climatic conditions. Given the existing climate variability in the Portuguese territory and its likely changes in the future, this zoning is thus of utmost interest. In this study, the current viticultural zoning in Portugal is discussed, as well as changes induced by climate change in the period 2011-2070. For this purpose, daily temperatures and precipitation rates were used to calculate the Huglin, cool night, dryness and hydrothermal indices. A composite index based on the previous indices was also calculated. For the assessment of the recent past conditions (1961-2000), an observational dataset (E-OBS) was used, while for future climate projections, a dataset comprising 16 simulations of regional climate models (produced by the ENSEMBLES project) was considered. In the future climate, statistically signifi cant increases in the thermal indices are projected to occur in the next decades, while for the precipitation-based indices decreases might be expected, particularly over the south and innermost regions of Portugal. A reshaping of the main Portuguese winemaking regions is likely to occur in the upcoming decades, therefore emphasizing the need for the development of appropriate measures for the adaptation to or mitigation of these climatic changes at the level of varieties and rootstocks used, as well as at the implemented cultural practices, keeping the typicity and wine styles.
In Portugal, the wine-grape sector has a crucial economic, social and cultural relevance, especia... more In Portugal, the wine-grape sector has a crucial economic, social and cultural relevance, especially in many inland regions of the country namely the Alto Douro Wine Region. It is the oldest legislated viticultural region in the world (since 1756) and has a typical Mediterranean climate with hot and dry summers. Recent-past temperature trends, focusing on European viticultural regions, show that the growing season mean temperatures have increased nearly 2ºC from 1950 to 2004. Future projections point to temperature increases and precipitation changes in the growing season, which may bring changes in grapevine physiology and consequently in yield and wine quality. Although grapevines have several survival strategies, the amounting evidence for significant climate change in the upcoming decades urges adaptation measures to be taken. Short term adaptation measures should be considered as the first protection strategy against climate change and should focus on specific threats. Among th...
Aim : To investigate the characteristics, relationships and trends in the phenology of four wineg... more Aim : To investigate the characteristics, relationships and trends in the phenology of four winegrape varieties and associated temperature relationships in the Lisbon wine region(LWR),between1990and2011.
Portugal is currently the 11th wine producing country in the world and viticulture has a strong i... more Portugal is currently the 11th wine producing country in the world and viticulture has a strong influence in the country’s economic stability and growth. For this reason, understanding the potential impacts of climate change on the development of this crop is crucial. The use of high spatial resolution datasets has demonstrated to be of great importance in viticultural zoning research, since it is necessary to capture the effect of environmental variability on this crop. This is particularly relevant regarding viticultural regions with steep climate gradients, where large scale assessments cannot truly represent the vineyard climate. In this study, the current and future viticultural zoning in the Portugal is depicted. This is achieved by computing a set of bioclimatic indices for the present (1950-2000), using an observational dataset at 1km resolution, and for the future (2041-2070), using an RCM ensemble at 25km resolution. A downscaling methodology, the ‘delta method’, is applie...
ABSTRACT Establishing the role of climate on wine production is one major goal of the winemaking ... more ABSTRACT Establishing the role of climate on wine production is one major goal of the winemaking sector. Por-tuguese viticulture plays a key role in national exports of agro-food products. The Minho Wine Region,in particular, produces a unique wine type ‘Vinho Verde’ that has been taking its stand as a prominentinternational brand. The present study aims at improving the understanding of climate-yield relation-ships in this region. A long wine production series (1945–2010) is used and some transformations areundertaken for robust statistical relationships. A stepwise methodology is applied to select regressorsfor logistic modeling of production classes (low, normal and high). New weather regimes are developedto assess large-scale atmospheric forcing and cycles in production are isolated by a spectral analysis. Tenregressors are selected: dryness and hydrothermal indices, 3-yr lagged production, mean temperaturesin March and June, precipitation in June and frequencies of occurrence of two regimes in May, and of onein February and September. Overall, moderate water stress during the growing season, high production3-yrs before, cool weather in February–March, settled-warm weather in May, warm moist weather inJune and relatively cool conditions preceding harvest are generally favorable to high wine production.Some of these relationships demonstrate the singularity of Minho Wine Region and justify the presentstudy. The model shows high skill (72% after cross-validation), stressing not only the important roleplayed by atmospheric conditions, but also its value for prediction and management.
Optimum climate conditions for grapevine growth are limited geographically and may be further cha... more Optimum climate conditions for grapevine growth are limited geographically and may be further challenged by a changing climate. Due to the importance of the winemaking sector in Europe, the assessment of future scenarios for European viticulture is of foremost relevance. A 16-member ensemble of model transient experiments (generated by the ENSEMBLES project) under a greenhouse gas emission scenario and for two future periods (2011-2040 and 2041-2070) is used in assessing climate change projections for six viticultural zoning indices. After model data calibration/validation using an observational gridded daily dataset, changes in their ensemble means and inter-annual variability are discussed, also taking into account the model uncertainties. Over southern Europe, the projected warming combined with severe dryness in the growing season is expected to have detrimental impacts on the grapevine development and wine quality, requiring measures to cope with heat and water stress. Furthermore, the expected warming and the maintenance of moderately wet growing seasons over most of the central European winemaking regions may require a selection of new grapevine varieties, as well as an enhancement of pest/disease control. New winemaking regions may arise over northern Europe and high altitude areas, when considering climatic factors only. An enhanced inter-annual variability is also projected over most of Europe. All these future changes pose new challenges for the European winemaking sector. Keywords European viticultural zoning . Bioclimatic indices . Climate change . Ensemble projections . Viticulture . Model uncertainties Abbreviations CompI Composite index DI Dryness index ECA&D European climate assessment and dataset GCM Global climate model GSP Growing season precipitation GSS Growing season suitability HI Huglin index HyI Hydrothermal index IPCC International panel on climate change MOS Model output statistics NIQR Normalized interquartile range RCM Regional climate model TR Total range SRES Synthesis report on emission scenarios Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (
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