espanolLa inseguridad alimentaria sigue representando una grave amenaza para la humanidad. Las ul... more espanolLa inseguridad alimentaria sigue representando una grave amenaza para la humanidad. Las ultimas estimaciones indican que casi se ha alcanzado la meta de reduccion del hambre de la ONU. Sin embargo, unos 795 millones de personas todavia padecen hambre cronica. Un analisis en profundidad de las causas del hambre, la inseguridad alimentaria y la malnutricion deja claro que derivan de la imposibilidad de acceder a los recursos necesarios en terminos de cantidad y calidad. Entre los desafios mas apremiantes esta el de alimentar a una poblacion cada vez mayor, que se preve en 9.500 millones en 2050, lo que requerira incrementar la produccion global de alimentos en un 60 %, en un momento en el que el cambio climatico, el aumento de las necesidades de regadio y la escasez de tierras disponibles suponen elementos de presion adicionales. Tras una revision de los factores politicos, sociales y economicos que se requieren para garantizar la seguridad alimentaria, la nutricion y la agricultura sostenible, este articulo tambien presenta las proyecciones para produccion, consumo, comercio y precios de los principales productos alimenticios para los proximos 10 anos, de 2015 a 2024, a partir de la ultima edicion de las Perspectivas Agricolas de la OCDE-FAO. EnglishThe global food insecurity situation continues to represent a serious threat for humanity. The latest estimates suggest that the developing regions as a whole have almost reached the MDG 1c hunger reduction target, yet the world still counts about 795 million people suffering from chronic hunger globally. A deeper analysis of the causes of hunger, food insecurity and malnutrition makes it clear that they are primarily caused by a lack of physical and economic access to the resources needed to secure enough food in terms of both quantity and quality. Among the most pressing challenges facing the world today is to feed a growing global population that is projected to increase to 9.5 billion by 2050. This will require food production to increase by 60 percent globally at a time when climate change, increasing water and land scarcity, soil and land degradation and a deteriorating natural resource base are creating additional pressures. Following a discussion of the political, social and economic factors that are required to ensure food security, nutrition and sustainable agriculture, this article also presents projections for production, consumption, trade and prices of the major food commodities for the next 10 years, 2015 to 2024, based on the 2015 edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook
summaryThe Costs and Consequences of Multi‐lateral Policies Against Price SpikesStartling volatil... more summaryThe Costs and Consequences of Multi‐lateral Policies Against Price SpikesStartling volatility in food commodity prices leads policymakers to reconsider their policy options, with widespread interest in buffer stocks and targeted consumer subsidies, including among G8 and G20 leaders who committed themselves to action. Stored grains would be released in the event of severe price increases, thus relieving pressure on commodity markets and decreasing prices. As we show, the downside of stocks large enough to temper a surge in world rice prices are high prices during the stock building phase. Direct and targeted aid to affected consumers is very effective at helping selected consumers. Any consumer subsidy encourages demand by lowering prices for its beneficiaries, but their ability to sustain their commodity purchases drives prices even higher so other consumers suffer even more. In choosing between these two options, the decision is whether to shift the burden of a price spike to other years, or to other consumers – at taxpayer cost. Additional challenges are to identify targeted consumers, set public stock rules and avoid displacement of private stocks. Current discussions about how to mitigate price surges should weigh the benefits of alternative policies against their budgetary costs and unintended consequences to design optimal responses to potential price surges.
Revue Scientifique Et Technique De L Office International Des Epizooties, Dec 1, 2020
The African swine fever (ASF) outbreak in the People's Republic of China (China) is affecting... more The African swine fever (ASF) outbreak in the People's Republic of China (China) is affecting regional and global meat and feed markets with potential impacts on vegetable oils, biofuels and even pharmaceuticals. Using the Aglink-Cosimo modelling system, the authors adopt three different scenarios to assess the impacts of ASF in China, South-East Asia and the world. The simulation results show a range of possible effects for agricultural commodity markets, notably a large initial protein gap that will be filled by higher production of both eggs and non-pork meats (poultry, beef and sheep/goat) in China and by pork imports from international markets. The results suggest a fast and near complete closure of the protein gap, reflecting China's low responsiveness of meat demand to prices. A sizeable share of the protein gap could remain unfilled if the necessary import infrastructure for meat, with gapless cold chains and efficient and comprehensive sanitary controls, is not set up as assumed in the scenarios. Not filling the protein gap would also leave domestic meat prices at permanently high levels, which could even translate into higher overall inflation rates. The simulations further suggest that an ASF pandemic would drive a lasting wedge between plant protein and animal protein prices, both locally and internationally. Oil meal prices will be particularly adversely affected, whereas pork and poultry will see a significant price rise. Countries that import the former and export the latter are likely to become the main beneficiaries of an ASF pandemic, benefiting from lower input prices and higher output prices for potentially large volumes of exports.
We investigate the impacts of multilateral removal of all border taxes and farm programs and thei... more We investigate the impacts of multilateral removal of all border taxes and farm programs and their distortions on developing economies, using a world agriculture partial equilibrium model. We quantify changes in prices, trade flows, and production locations. Border measures and farm programs both affect world trade, but trade barriers have the largest impact. Following removal, trade expansion is substantial for
The OECD is a unique forum where the governments of 31 democracies work together to address the e... more The OECD is a unique forum where the governments of 31 democracies work together to address the economic, social and environmental challenges of globalisation. The OECD is also at the forefront of efforts to understand and to help governments respond to new developments and concerns, such as corporate governance, the information economy and the challenges of an ageing population. The Organisation provides a setting where governments can compare policy experiences, seek answers to common problems, identify good practice and work to coordinate domestic and international policies. Commission of the European Communities takes part in the work of the OECD. OECD Publishing disseminates widely the results of the Organisation's statistics gathering and research on economic, social and environmental issues, as well as the conventions, guidelines and standards agreed by its members. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations leads international efforts to defeat hunger. F...
We analyze the impact of China's accession to the WTO on agricultural markets using t... more We analyze the impact of China's accession to the WTO on agricultural markets using the FAPRI modeling framework. Our analysis includes major crops, livestock sectors, and exogenous changes in consumer income, expanded textile production, and policies. Chinese livestock, grain and oilseed crushing industries experience lower revenues, while cotton production prospers with accession, despite increased cotton imports. Most food prices decrease
We analyze the impact of China\u27s accession to the World Trade Organization on major crop and l... more We analyze the impact of China\u27s accession to the World Trade Organization on major crop and livestock markets using the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) modeling framework. We incorporate expected changes in consumer income, textile production, and trade policies as exogenous shocks to the baseline model. Following accession, revenues decline in China\u27s livestock, grain, and oilseed industries, while cotton production prospers despite increased imports. Chinese consumers benefit from lower food prices, with vegetable oil, dairy, and meat consumption increasing significantly. Argentina, Brazil, Canada, the European Union, and the United States are the greatest beneficiaries from expanded agricultural trade with China
○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○... more ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ Induced by remarkable income growth, per capita vegetable oil consumption in China increased by 440 percent from 1979 to 1999. By 1999, China had become the world’s largest importer of soybean, rapeseed, and palm oils and the second largest importer of soybeans and rapeseed. These consumption and import growth trends are expected to continue, because China’s current per capita consumption levels are much lower than those in neighboring countries (e.g., about 30 percent of that in Taiwan, as shown in Figure 1).
A team of U.S. analysts visited China to assess the potential for use of distillers dried grain p... more A team of U.S. analysts visited China to assess the potential for use of distillers dried grain plus solubles (DDGS) in China\u27s livestock sector. They examined the economics of the use of DDGS in feeds, the policy issues surrounding the use of the product, and transportation-logistic constraints in the expansion of DDGS imports. The team collected actual and secondary data to conduct a micro-economic analysis of the impact of DDGS on feed cost, solicited official and expert opinions through interviews, and conducted site visits. They found the development of the DDGS import market in China to be very promising. The microeconomic analysis showed a clear economic incentive for feed millers and livestock producers to use DDGS in their feed ration, with a potential savings of $1 per hundredweight of mixed feed, representing a 6% feed cost savings. Moreover, China has the livestock numbers to support a DDGS market. Concerns about myctoxin contamination and nutrient profile variability...
espanolLa inseguridad alimentaria sigue representando una grave amenaza para la humanidad. Las ul... more espanolLa inseguridad alimentaria sigue representando una grave amenaza para la humanidad. Las ultimas estimaciones indican que casi se ha alcanzado la meta de reduccion del hambre de la ONU. Sin embargo, unos 795 millones de personas todavia padecen hambre cronica. Un analisis en profundidad de las causas del hambre, la inseguridad alimentaria y la malnutricion deja claro que derivan de la imposibilidad de acceder a los recursos necesarios en terminos de cantidad y calidad. Entre los desafios mas apremiantes esta el de alimentar a una poblacion cada vez mayor, que se preve en 9.500 millones en 2050, lo que requerira incrementar la produccion global de alimentos en un 60 %, en un momento en el que el cambio climatico, el aumento de las necesidades de regadio y la escasez de tierras disponibles suponen elementos de presion adicionales. Tras una revision de los factores politicos, sociales y economicos que se requieren para garantizar la seguridad alimentaria, la nutricion y la agricultura sostenible, este articulo tambien presenta las proyecciones para produccion, consumo, comercio y precios de los principales productos alimenticios para los proximos 10 anos, de 2015 a 2024, a partir de la ultima edicion de las Perspectivas Agricolas de la OCDE-FAO. EnglishThe global food insecurity situation continues to represent a serious threat for humanity. The latest estimates suggest that the developing regions as a whole have almost reached the MDG 1c hunger reduction target, yet the world still counts about 795 million people suffering from chronic hunger globally. A deeper analysis of the causes of hunger, food insecurity and malnutrition makes it clear that they are primarily caused by a lack of physical and economic access to the resources needed to secure enough food in terms of both quantity and quality. Among the most pressing challenges facing the world today is to feed a growing global population that is projected to increase to 9.5 billion by 2050. This will require food production to increase by 60 percent globally at a time when climate change, increasing water and land scarcity, soil and land degradation and a deteriorating natural resource base are creating additional pressures. Following a discussion of the political, social and economic factors that are required to ensure food security, nutrition and sustainable agriculture, this article also presents projections for production, consumption, trade and prices of the major food commodities for the next 10 years, 2015 to 2024, based on the 2015 edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook
summaryThe Costs and Consequences of Multi‐lateral Policies Against Price SpikesStartling volatil... more summaryThe Costs and Consequences of Multi‐lateral Policies Against Price SpikesStartling volatility in food commodity prices leads policymakers to reconsider their policy options, with widespread interest in buffer stocks and targeted consumer subsidies, including among G8 and G20 leaders who committed themselves to action. Stored grains would be released in the event of severe price increases, thus relieving pressure on commodity markets and decreasing prices. As we show, the downside of stocks large enough to temper a surge in world rice prices are high prices during the stock building phase. Direct and targeted aid to affected consumers is very effective at helping selected consumers. Any consumer subsidy encourages demand by lowering prices for its beneficiaries, but their ability to sustain their commodity purchases drives prices even higher so other consumers suffer even more. In choosing between these two options, the decision is whether to shift the burden of a price spike to other years, or to other consumers – at taxpayer cost. Additional challenges are to identify targeted consumers, set public stock rules and avoid displacement of private stocks. Current discussions about how to mitigate price surges should weigh the benefits of alternative policies against their budgetary costs and unintended consequences to design optimal responses to potential price surges.
Revue Scientifique Et Technique De L Office International Des Epizooties, Dec 1, 2020
The African swine fever (ASF) outbreak in the People's Republic of China (China) is affecting... more The African swine fever (ASF) outbreak in the People's Republic of China (China) is affecting regional and global meat and feed markets with potential impacts on vegetable oils, biofuels and even pharmaceuticals. Using the Aglink-Cosimo modelling system, the authors adopt three different scenarios to assess the impacts of ASF in China, South-East Asia and the world. The simulation results show a range of possible effects for agricultural commodity markets, notably a large initial protein gap that will be filled by higher production of both eggs and non-pork meats (poultry, beef and sheep/goat) in China and by pork imports from international markets. The results suggest a fast and near complete closure of the protein gap, reflecting China's low responsiveness of meat demand to prices. A sizeable share of the protein gap could remain unfilled if the necessary import infrastructure for meat, with gapless cold chains and efficient and comprehensive sanitary controls, is not set up as assumed in the scenarios. Not filling the protein gap would also leave domestic meat prices at permanently high levels, which could even translate into higher overall inflation rates. The simulations further suggest that an ASF pandemic would drive a lasting wedge between plant protein and animal protein prices, both locally and internationally. Oil meal prices will be particularly adversely affected, whereas pork and poultry will see a significant price rise. Countries that import the former and export the latter are likely to become the main beneficiaries of an ASF pandemic, benefiting from lower input prices and higher output prices for potentially large volumes of exports.
We investigate the impacts of multilateral removal of all border taxes and farm programs and thei... more We investigate the impacts of multilateral removal of all border taxes and farm programs and their distortions on developing economies, using a world agriculture partial equilibrium model. We quantify changes in prices, trade flows, and production locations. Border measures and farm programs both affect world trade, but trade barriers have the largest impact. Following removal, trade expansion is substantial for
The OECD is a unique forum where the governments of 31 democracies work together to address the e... more The OECD is a unique forum where the governments of 31 democracies work together to address the economic, social and environmental challenges of globalisation. The OECD is also at the forefront of efforts to understand and to help governments respond to new developments and concerns, such as corporate governance, the information economy and the challenges of an ageing population. The Organisation provides a setting where governments can compare policy experiences, seek answers to common problems, identify good practice and work to coordinate domestic and international policies. Commission of the European Communities takes part in the work of the OECD. OECD Publishing disseminates widely the results of the Organisation's statistics gathering and research on economic, social and environmental issues, as well as the conventions, guidelines and standards agreed by its members. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations leads international efforts to defeat hunger. F...
We analyze the impact of China's accession to the WTO on agricultural markets using t... more We analyze the impact of China's accession to the WTO on agricultural markets using the FAPRI modeling framework. Our analysis includes major crops, livestock sectors, and exogenous changes in consumer income, expanded textile production, and policies. Chinese livestock, grain and oilseed crushing industries experience lower revenues, while cotton production prospers with accession, despite increased cotton imports. Most food prices decrease
We analyze the impact of China\u27s accession to the World Trade Organization on major crop and l... more We analyze the impact of China\u27s accession to the World Trade Organization on major crop and livestock markets using the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) modeling framework. We incorporate expected changes in consumer income, textile production, and trade policies as exogenous shocks to the baseline model. Following accession, revenues decline in China\u27s livestock, grain, and oilseed industries, while cotton production prospers despite increased imports. Chinese consumers benefit from lower food prices, with vegetable oil, dairy, and meat consumption increasing significantly. Argentina, Brazil, Canada, the European Union, and the United States are the greatest beneficiaries from expanded agricultural trade with China
○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○... more ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ Induced by remarkable income growth, per capita vegetable oil consumption in China increased by 440 percent from 1979 to 1999. By 1999, China had become the world’s largest importer of soybean, rapeseed, and palm oils and the second largest importer of soybeans and rapeseed. These consumption and import growth trends are expected to continue, because China’s current per capita consumption levels are much lower than those in neighboring countries (e.g., about 30 percent of that in Taiwan, as shown in Figure 1).
A team of U.S. analysts visited China to assess the potential for use of distillers dried grain p... more A team of U.S. analysts visited China to assess the potential for use of distillers dried grain plus solubles (DDGS) in China\u27s livestock sector. They examined the economics of the use of DDGS in feeds, the policy issues surrounding the use of the product, and transportation-logistic constraints in the expansion of DDGS imports. The team collected actual and secondary data to conduct a micro-economic analysis of the impact of DDGS on feed cost, solicited official and expert opinions through interviews, and conducted site visits. They found the development of the DDGS import market in China to be very promising. The microeconomic analysis showed a clear economic incentive for feed millers and livestock producers to use DDGS in their feed ration, with a potential savings of $1 per hundredweight of mixed feed, representing a 6% feed cost savings. Moreover, China has the livestock numbers to support a DDGS market. Concerns about myctoxin contamination and nutrient profile variability...
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