Although many meteorological prediction models have been developed recently, their accuracy is st... more Although many meteorological prediction models have been developed recently, their accuracy is still unreliable. Post-processing is a task for improving meteorological predictions. This study proposes a post-processing method for the Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSV2) model. The applicability of the proposed method is shown in Iran for observation data from 1982 to 2017. This study designs software to perform post-processing in meteorological organizations automatically. From another point of view, this study presents a decision support system (DSS) for controlling precipitation-based natural side effects such as flood disasters or drought phenomena. It goes without saying that the proposed DSS model can meet sustainable development goals (SDGs) with regards to a grantee of human health and environmental protection issues. The present study, for the first time, implemented a platform based on a graphical user interface due to the prediction of precipitation with the applicati...
Regarding the role of water bodies and their sea surface temperature (SST) in providing humidity ... more Regarding the role of water bodies and their sea surface temperature (SST) in providing humidity of weather systems affecting Iran, SST time series of main regional water bodies including Caspian, Mediterranean, Black, Oman, Red Sea and Persian Gulf are analyzed in this researchover the period of 1854 to 2009 (155 year). The Extended Reconstructed sea surface temperature (ERSST) data set in 2×2 latitude/longitude resolution, which was provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), are used in this study. Results of current research over the period under study showed that the maximum annual increasing rate of SST has been occurring in the Oman Sea by 0.0049 ToC (around 0.5 ToC per 100 1-University of Tabriz Physical Geography Department. 2-PhD Student, University of Tabriz. 3-I.R. of Meteorological Organization. 4-Department of Environmental Studies, University of Canterbury, New Zealand. Islamic Azad University-Ahar Branch Geographic Space An Approved Scient...
According to the computational and physical simplifications used in regional climate models and n... more According to the computational and physical simplifications used in regional climate models and numerical weather prediction models, none of them can predict the weather and climate accurately. A fully statistical technique, named MaS, has been recently used for calibration ...
<p><strong></strong></p><p>... more <p><strong></strong></p><p>In this study, droughts were assessed for the Uremia Lake Basin located in the North West of Iran which is facing the risk of drying over the last decades. Since long-term and spatially dense observational data are not available, in particular for the mountainous part of the Uremia lake basin, we successfully tested the performance of the ERA5 reanalysis data set for our purpose. By comparing time series plots of drought indices (SPI, SPEI), both indices were able to capture the temporal variation of droughts. SPIE identified more drought events but SPI, as it uses precipitation only as input, fails to show the increasing number of evaporation driven droughts in the Uremia Lake Basin, which were observed in particular for the most recent decade. SPEI was calculated using the monthly temperature and precipitation, the extremely dry conditions of the basin were observed in the mountainous area, it seems that based on SPEI index, the highest values of actual evapotranspiration happens near the lake and in high mountains. Moreover, in recent years, drought has become more extreme in higher elevated areas, then we focused on Snow cover which has a significant role in surface runoff and groundwater recharge in mountainous and semi-arid areas, like within the Uremia lake basin. In recent years climate change impact snow variations distribution, snow cover, and runoff in different scales. Therefore, spatial and temporal monitoring of the snow-covered surface and the impact of these changes is necessary. Consequently, the chances of snow cover (SCA) in the study area were studied using MODIS images by the NDSI index and snow cover data from the ERA5 dataset. Finally, we came to this conclusion that the temperature rise in recent decades led to a high amount of evaporation and consequently the snow surface area has decreased so that it could affect the region’s water reservoir in the future.</p><p>Key words: Drought monitoring,ERA5,MODIS,SPI,SPEI,NDSI</p>
Although many meteorological prediction models have been developed recently, their accuracy is st... more Although many meteorological prediction models have been developed recently, their accuracy is still unreliable. Post-processing is a task for improving meteorological predictions. This study proposes a post-processing method for the Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSV2) model. The applicability of the proposed method is shown in Iran for observation data from 1982 to 2017. This study designs software to perform post-processing in meteorological organizations automatically. From another point of view, this study presents a decision support system (DSS) for controlling precipitation-based natural side effects such as flood disasters or drought phenomena. It goes without saying that the proposed DSS model can meet sustainable development goals (SDGs) with regards to a grantee of human health and environmental protection issues. The present study, for the first time, implemented a platform based on a graphical user interface due to the prediction of precipitation with the applicati...
Regarding the role of water bodies and their sea surface temperature (SST) in providing humidity ... more Regarding the role of water bodies and their sea surface temperature (SST) in providing humidity of weather systems affecting Iran, SST time series of main regional water bodies including Caspian, Mediterranean, Black, Oman, Red Sea and Persian Gulf are analyzed in this researchover the period of 1854 to 2009 (155 year). The Extended Reconstructed sea surface temperature (ERSST) data set in 2×2 latitude/longitude resolution, which was provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), are used in this study. Results of current research over the period under study showed that the maximum annual increasing rate of SST has been occurring in the Oman Sea by 0.0049 ToC (around 0.5 ToC per 100 1-University of Tabriz Physical Geography Department. 2-PhD Student, University of Tabriz. 3-I.R. of Meteorological Organization. 4-Department of Environmental Studies, University of Canterbury, New Zealand. Islamic Azad University-Ahar Branch Geographic Space An Approved Scient...
According to the computational and physical simplifications used in regional climate models and n... more According to the computational and physical simplifications used in regional climate models and numerical weather prediction models, none of them can predict the weather and climate accurately. A fully statistical technique, named MaS, has been recently used for calibration ...
<p><strong></strong></p><p>... more <p><strong></strong></p><p>In this study, droughts were assessed for the Uremia Lake Basin located in the North West of Iran which is facing the risk of drying over the last decades. Since long-term and spatially dense observational data are not available, in particular for the mountainous part of the Uremia lake basin, we successfully tested the performance of the ERA5 reanalysis data set for our purpose. By comparing time series plots of drought indices (SPI, SPEI), both indices were able to capture the temporal variation of droughts. SPIE identified more drought events but SPI, as it uses precipitation only as input, fails to show the increasing number of evaporation driven droughts in the Uremia Lake Basin, which were observed in particular for the most recent decade. SPEI was calculated using the monthly temperature and precipitation, the extremely dry conditions of the basin were observed in the mountainous area, it seems that based on SPEI index, the highest values of actual evapotranspiration happens near the lake and in high mountains. Moreover, in recent years, drought has become more extreme in higher elevated areas, then we focused on Snow cover which has a significant role in surface runoff and groundwater recharge in mountainous and semi-arid areas, like within the Uremia lake basin. In recent years climate change impact snow variations distribution, snow cover, and runoff in different scales. Therefore, spatial and temporal monitoring of the snow-covered surface and the impact of these changes is necessary. Consequently, the chances of snow cover (SCA) in the study area were studied using MODIS images by the NDSI index and snow cover data from the ERA5 dataset. Finally, we came to this conclusion that the temperature rise in recent decades led to a high amount of evaporation and consequently the snow surface area has decreased so that it could affect the region’s water reservoir in the future.</p><p>Key words: Drought monitoring,ERA5,MODIS,SPI,SPEI,NDSI</p>
Uploads