I am a semi-retired business consultant/philosopher. I taught philosophy for 7 years at Yale, 4 at Williams, 1 at UTex Austin early in my career. After 30 years of consulting doing scenario planning, I returned to teaching at Presidio Graduate School. I now live insouthern Utah.
The objective of this paper is to make a case for a scenaric stance that holds high road and low ... more The objective of this paper is to make a case for a scenaric stance that holds high road and low road futures in mind at once. Opening with regrets about the total eclipse of Utopian thinking, the paper aims to move on to embrace both aspirational futures and a forthright recognition of the many ways in which things could go wrong. Adopting a scenaric stance amounts to a new, fourth attitude toward historical time and the future. The ancients lived in an ahistorical, cyclical time. Second, modernity embraced a progressive and optimistic approach to the future. Third, post‐modernity turns pessimistic about the future. Fourth, a new scenaric stance vindicates Utopian optimism by pairing it with a forthright recognition of pessimistic possibilities.
This article is divided into three parts. The first part describes the paradox of positive scenar... more This article is divided into three parts. The first part describes the paradox of positive scenarios: they are much harder to write than negative scenarios. The second part describes the logic of emergent systems whose properties are neither reducible to nor predictable from the properties of their component parts. The third part shows how the concept of emergence can be used to lend plausibility to those optimistic scenarios that might otherwise be rejected as mere wishful thinking.
Systems Theory has multiple lineages: From Hegel's System, through General Systems Theory, to Sys... more Systems Theory has multiple lineages: From Hegel's System, through General Systems Theory, to Systems Dynamics, cybernetics, and various approaches to various complex systems like healthcare. This article develops a distinction between those approaches to complex systems that stem from a common trunk: the insight that all things are interconnected. Arrogant systems thinkers aspire to a totalizing grasp of the whole. Humble systems thinkers start from the same premise of interconnectedness, but recoil from totalization and become pessimistic about the possibility of avoiding unintended side effects of any intervention in complex systems.
This article examines the possible contributions the existentialist tradition might make to envir... more This article examines the possible contributions the existentialist tradition might make to environmentalism. I note, first, that Martin Heidegger is a questionable ally, both because his relationship to technology is ambiguous, while his affiliations with the Nazis were not. But the larger existentialist tradition is valuable for the environmental movement because it opens up a field of possibilities for human creativity. Sartre serves as exemplary for the way he struggled with the dialectic between individual autonomy in his early philosophy of freedom, and the needs of the collective as he confronted them in his later turn toward Marxism. But the demands of the collective are more reasonably confronted in the larger legacy of Hegel than in the more limited form they took in Sartre's Marxism. The article concludes that Sartre's struggles can be enlightening to those of us who now seek the joyful wisdom of existential freedom for the individual even as we confront the demands that environmental degradation will place on the collective.
This article applies the analytic rigor of philosophy to the vexed topic of business strategy, an... more This article applies the analytic rigor of philosophy to the vexed topic of business strategy, and uses the objective, public evidence of business strategy as an existence proof for the possibility of free will and purpose in the private realm of subjective intentionality. The first part distinguishes three types of intentionality in philosophy—purposive intentionality, referential intentionality, and the problematic intentionality of a godlike, miraculous “inner intender.” After rejecting this third type of intentionality, and noting that its rejection saves the first two types of intentionality from guilt by association, the second part draws parallels with three types of strategy in business: purposive, referential, and godlike. The first defines the goals and objectives of a company; the second picks out and targets consumers in market driven strategy; and the third, with the help of philosophical reflections, demands a rethinking of the function of leadership without reliance on a single, godlike leader. In the third part of this article, the existence proof from the public world of business is used to shed light on the possibility of intentionality in the private world of subjective intentionality. Finally, the article draws conclusions for its three audiences: for the philosophers, with credit to Nietzsche who saw it all, a greater clarity about intentionality and free will; for business people, greater clarity about the importance of purposiveness and strategic intent; and for business philosophers, a demonstration showing how—through strategy and intentionality—we can both create value and give meaning to the lives of our employees, ourselves, and our customers.
This article covers the basics of scenario planning: Why scenarios? What are scenarios? How do yo... more This article covers the basics of scenario planning: Why scenarios? What are scenarios? How do you develop scenarios? After covering the preliminaries—the constitution of the scenario team; interviews; research; the identification of a focal issue; set and setting for a scenario workshop; staffing; the trajectory of a scenario planning project—the article moves on to describe several methods for identifying a finite set of diverse scenario logics. After a set of scenarios has been developed, there are several different routes from scenarios to strategy. Early indicators can help identify which of several scenarios is in fact unfolding.
World Futures: The Journal of Global Education, 2005
This article will argue that there is a science of scenario planning; or at least a logos, a logi... more This article will argue that there is a science of scenario planning; or at least a logos, a logic, a scenariology. Scenario planning is not predictive. But a good set of scenarios, scientifically developed, can reliably and predictably change minds. Scenario planning is both art and science. In joining the club of the sciences, scenario planning calls for a new kind of membership, or a new kind of science, one that, following Stuart Kauffman, relies on the importance of story. Hegel tells us that all stories, all narratives include a conflict between desire and the law, intention, and necessity. Scenarios provide a way for communities to frame their intentions. They thereby effect “downward causality” on the present in order to project the present toward a preferred future. In fulfilling the promise of this new kind of science, scenario planning breaks with positivistic science, but without falling into a postmodern nihilism. Without setting out to do so, the discipline of scenario planning introduces us to a new epistemology, a new way of knowing the truth. Drawing on pragmatism, Wittgenstein, and Richard Rorty, this article reaches the conclusion that, for scenario planners, the future replaces objectivity as the horizon for justification. What is true? We'll see.
Strategic planning exercises often begin with the observation, “We need a better story to tell.” ... more Strategic planning exercises often begin with the observation, “We need a better story to tell.” We argue that this is not just a figure of speech but that the narrative form is uniquely appropriate to both the development and the effective communication of good strategies. Drawing on recent literature in the relatively new field of narratology, we argue that the temporal structure of stories allows for a reach into the future that evidence-based, analytic approaches cannot achieve. The case of Nakamura's turnaround at Matsushita/Panasonic is cited as an example of narrative strategy.
Education in the Information Age Education is an important means through which parents and a myri... more Education in the Information Age Education is an important means through which parents and a myriad of social institutions prepare the young for adulthood. These social institutions are ever evolving and as such, the needs of students have to change to conform to arising social transformations. This paper seeks to discuss the Youtube video published online by Michael Wesch on the 12 th of October 2012 entitled, A Vision for Students Today. This video offers great insights to both students and tutors with regards to the intimate perceptions they have on the current education system. To begin with, education involves the transfer of meaningful information from teachers to students. Given that this is the information age, teachers and by extension the education system should have the information as to what students really expect from the education system in an effort to meet future objectives. The unfortunate fact is that the current education system seems too rigid to incorporate the intimate needs projected by students. As Wesch (2012) provides, Marshal McLuhan describes the education system as one made up of fractured patterns of subjects and teaching schedules in an environment with limited information. In this regard, information does not necessarily refer to the content found in books and other course materials but the information on the intimate needs and future expectations of students. The 200 students involved in the production of the video offer insights into ways in which the current education system fails to address the plight of students from different backgrounds with regards to future ambitions. The education system is meant to prepare the students to positively influence personal as well as holistic development of the society. Technology has brought about the free flow of information and social contact with other students and educationists from different parts of the world. Unfortunately, the different global societies do not offer a level playing ground. On the contrary, people living in economically challenged societies are not exposed to the benefits of the various 21 st Century technology developments. For instance, one of the students in the video points out that a laptop costs more than what an adult in the third world countries earns in a year. This digital divide will thus ensure such economies continue to lag behind in the development of their education systems. Another aspect that is clearly exhibited in this video relates to the relevance of the content taught in classrooms with envisioned future income earning and societal endeavors. Students seek to excel in school so as to pursue the most promising or desired education courses which will ensure sustainable social and economic freedoms. As one student in the video provides, some of the educational content in schools taught today may be irrelevant in future, a cause for concern among many students is. In conclusion, Michael Wesch video calls for the greater inclusivity of students intimate needs with regard to their future expectations and ambitions in the educational content taught in classrooms. Technological advances have indeed improved educational outcomes both for teachers and students. However, the digital divide is real and widening. Given that the information age has transformed the globe into a global village, world powers should look to equity and equality in the development of education systems all over the world.
This article applies the analytic rigor of philosophy to the vexed topic of business strategy, an... more This article applies the analytic rigor of philosophy to the vexed topic of business strategy, and uses the objective, public evidence of business strategy as an existence proof for the possibility of free will and purpose in the private realm of subjective intentionality. The first part distinguishes three types of intentionality in philosophy—purposive intentionality, referential intentionality, and the problematic intentionality of a godlike, miraculous “inner intender.” After rejecting this third type of intentionality, and noting that its rejection saves the first two types of intentionality from guilt by association, the second part draws parallels with three types of strategy in business: purposive, referential, and godlike. The first defines the goals and objectives of a company; the second picks out and targets consumers in market driven strategy; and the third, with the help of philosophical reflections, demands a rethinking of the function of leadership without reliance on a single, godlike leader. In the third part of this article, the existence proof from the public world of business is used to shed light on the possibility of intentionality in the private world of subjective intentionality. Finally, the article draws conclusions for its three audiences: for the philosophers, with credit to Nietzsche who saw it all, a greater clarity about intentionality and free will; for business people, greater clarity about the importance of purposiveness and strategic intent; and for business philosophers, a demonstration showing how—through strategy and intentionality—we can both create value and give meaning to the lives of our employees, ourselves, and our customers.
PurposeThe objective of this paper is to make a case for a scenaric stance that holds high road a... more PurposeThe objective of this paper is to make a case for a scenaric stance that holds high road and low road futures in mind at once. Opening with regrets about the total eclipse of Utopian thinking, the paper aims to move on to embrace both aspirational futures and a forthright recognition of the many ways in which things could go wrong. Adopting a scenaric stance amounts to a new, fourth attitude toward historical time and the future. The ancients lived in an ahistorical, cyclical time. Second, modernity embraced a progressive and optimistic approach to the future. Third, post‐modernity turns pessimistic about the future. Fourth, a new scenaric stance vindicates Utopian optimism by pairing it with a forthright recognition of pessimistic possibilities.Design/methodology/approachThis is a reflective, almost philosophical paper that articulates a new attitude toward the future, which demonstrates the significance of scenario planning for attitudes toward the future.FindingsA scenaric stance can restore the liberatory potential of Utopian thinking by yoking optimistic, aspirational futures together with a clear‐eyed recognition of the several ways that plans can misfire.Research limitations/implicationsThis is a philosophical, reflective piece that does not rely on any quantitative evidence or rigorous modeling.Practical implicationsThe practical implications are major: to the extent that the health of the economy relies on confidence and a willingness to take risks, a lemming‐like race to the bottom will result in a Japan‐like endless recession. A vindication is needed for aspirational scenarios.Social implicationsEveryone is better off when fewer people are living in crouch.Originality/valueAfter three decades of reviewing and contributing to the literature on future studies, the author has seen nothing that remotely resembles the argument of this paper. Its value consists in its potential for lifting people's sights. One stands in danger of a loss of confidence and an endless recession. One needs to restore a sense of possibility and optimism, but can do so responsibly only if one holds on to an honest sense of the real dangers one faces.
Systems Theory has multiple lineages: From Hegel's System, through General Systems Theory, to... more Systems Theory has multiple lineages: From Hegel's System, through General Systems Theory, to Systems Dynamics, cybernetics, and various approaches to various complex systems like healthcare. This article develops a distinction between those approaches to complex systems that stem from a common trunk: the insight that all things are interconnected. Arrogant systems thinkers aspire to a totalizing grasp of the whole. Humble systems thinkers start from the same premise of interconnectedness, but recoil from totalization and become pessimistic about the possibility of avoiding unintended side effects of any intervention in complex systems.
The objective of this paper is to make a case for a scenaric stance that holds high road and low ... more The objective of this paper is to make a case for a scenaric stance that holds high road and low road futures in mind at once. Opening with regrets about the total eclipse of Utopian thinking, the paper aims to move on to embrace both aspirational futures and a forthright recognition of the many ways in which things could go wrong. Adopting a scenaric stance amounts to a new, fourth attitude toward historical time and the future. The ancients lived in an ahistorical, cyclical time. Second, modernity embraced a progressive and optimistic approach to the future. Third, post‐modernity turns pessimistic about the future. Fourth, a new scenaric stance vindicates Utopian optimism by pairing it with a forthright recognition of pessimistic possibilities.
This article is divided into three parts. The first part describes the paradox of positive scenar... more This article is divided into three parts. The first part describes the paradox of positive scenarios: they are much harder to write than negative scenarios. The second part describes the logic of emergent systems whose properties are neither reducible to nor predictable from the properties of their component parts. The third part shows how the concept of emergence can be used to lend plausibility to those optimistic scenarios that might otherwise be rejected as mere wishful thinking.
Systems Theory has multiple lineages: From Hegel's System, through General Systems Theory, to Sys... more Systems Theory has multiple lineages: From Hegel's System, through General Systems Theory, to Systems Dynamics, cybernetics, and various approaches to various complex systems like healthcare. This article develops a distinction between those approaches to complex systems that stem from a common trunk: the insight that all things are interconnected. Arrogant systems thinkers aspire to a totalizing grasp of the whole. Humble systems thinkers start from the same premise of interconnectedness, but recoil from totalization and become pessimistic about the possibility of avoiding unintended side effects of any intervention in complex systems.
This article examines the possible contributions the existentialist tradition might make to envir... more This article examines the possible contributions the existentialist tradition might make to environmentalism. I note, first, that Martin Heidegger is a questionable ally, both because his relationship to technology is ambiguous, while his affiliations with the Nazis were not. But the larger existentialist tradition is valuable for the environmental movement because it opens up a field of possibilities for human creativity. Sartre serves as exemplary for the way he struggled with the dialectic between individual autonomy in his early philosophy of freedom, and the needs of the collective as he confronted them in his later turn toward Marxism. But the demands of the collective are more reasonably confronted in the larger legacy of Hegel than in the more limited form they took in Sartre's Marxism. The article concludes that Sartre's struggles can be enlightening to those of us who now seek the joyful wisdom of existential freedom for the individual even as we confront the demands that environmental degradation will place on the collective.
This article applies the analytic rigor of philosophy to the vexed topic of business strategy, an... more This article applies the analytic rigor of philosophy to the vexed topic of business strategy, and uses the objective, public evidence of business strategy as an existence proof for the possibility of free will and purpose in the private realm of subjective intentionality. The first part distinguishes three types of intentionality in philosophy—purposive intentionality, referential intentionality, and the problematic intentionality of a godlike, miraculous “inner intender.” After rejecting this third type of intentionality, and noting that its rejection saves the first two types of intentionality from guilt by association, the second part draws parallels with three types of strategy in business: purposive, referential, and godlike. The first defines the goals and objectives of a company; the second picks out and targets consumers in market driven strategy; and the third, with the help of philosophical reflections, demands a rethinking of the function of leadership without reliance on a single, godlike leader. In the third part of this article, the existence proof from the public world of business is used to shed light on the possibility of intentionality in the private world of subjective intentionality. Finally, the article draws conclusions for its three audiences: for the philosophers, with credit to Nietzsche who saw it all, a greater clarity about intentionality and free will; for business people, greater clarity about the importance of purposiveness and strategic intent; and for business philosophers, a demonstration showing how—through strategy and intentionality—we can both create value and give meaning to the lives of our employees, ourselves, and our customers.
This article covers the basics of scenario planning: Why scenarios? What are scenarios? How do yo... more This article covers the basics of scenario planning: Why scenarios? What are scenarios? How do you develop scenarios? After covering the preliminaries—the constitution of the scenario team; interviews; research; the identification of a focal issue; set and setting for a scenario workshop; staffing; the trajectory of a scenario planning project—the article moves on to describe several methods for identifying a finite set of diverse scenario logics. After a set of scenarios has been developed, there are several different routes from scenarios to strategy. Early indicators can help identify which of several scenarios is in fact unfolding.
World Futures: The Journal of Global Education, 2005
This article will argue that there is a science of scenario planning; or at least a logos, a logi... more This article will argue that there is a science of scenario planning; or at least a logos, a logic, a scenariology. Scenario planning is not predictive. But a good set of scenarios, scientifically developed, can reliably and predictably change minds. Scenario planning is both art and science. In joining the club of the sciences, scenario planning calls for a new kind of membership, or a new kind of science, one that, following Stuart Kauffman, relies on the importance of story. Hegel tells us that all stories, all narratives include a conflict between desire and the law, intention, and necessity. Scenarios provide a way for communities to frame their intentions. They thereby effect “downward causality” on the present in order to project the present toward a preferred future. In fulfilling the promise of this new kind of science, scenario planning breaks with positivistic science, but without falling into a postmodern nihilism. Without setting out to do so, the discipline of scenario planning introduces us to a new epistemology, a new way of knowing the truth. Drawing on pragmatism, Wittgenstein, and Richard Rorty, this article reaches the conclusion that, for scenario planners, the future replaces objectivity as the horizon for justification. What is true? We'll see.
Strategic planning exercises often begin with the observation, “We need a better story to tell.” ... more Strategic planning exercises often begin with the observation, “We need a better story to tell.” We argue that this is not just a figure of speech but that the narrative form is uniquely appropriate to both the development and the effective communication of good strategies. Drawing on recent literature in the relatively new field of narratology, we argue that the temporal structure of stories allows for a reach into the future that evidence-based, analytic approaches cannot achieve. The case of Nakamura's turnaround at Matsushita/Panasonic is cited as an example of narrative strategy.
Education in the Information Age Education is an important means through which parents and a myri... more Education in the Information Age Education is an important means through which parents and a myriad of social institutions prepare the young for adulthood. These social institutions are ever evolving and as such, the needs of students have to change to conform to arising social transformations. This paper seeks to discuss the Youtube video published online by Michael Wesch on the 12 th of October 2012 entitled, A Vision for Students Today. This video offers great insights to both students and tutors with regards to the intimate perceptions they have on the current education system. To begin with, education involves the transfer of meaningful information from teachers to students. Given that this is the information age, teachers and by extension the education system should have the information as to what students really expect from the education system in an effort to meet future objectives. The unfortunate fact is that the current education system seems too rigid to incorporate the intimate needs projected by students. As Wesch (2012) provides, Marshal McLuhan describes the education system as one made up of fractured patterns of subjects and teaching schedules in an environment with limited information. In this regard, information does not necessarily refer to the content found in books and other course materials but the information on the intimate needs and future expectations of students. The 200 students involved in the production of the video offer insights into ways in which the current education system fails to address the plight of students from different backgrounds with regards to future ambitions. The education system is meant to prepare the students to positively influence personal as well as holistic development of the society. Technology has brought about the free flow of information and social contact with other students and educationists from different parts of the world. Unfortunately, the different global societies do not offer a level playing ground. On the contrary, people living in economically challenged societies are not exposed to the benefits of the various 21 st Century technology developments. For instance, one of the students in the video points out that a laptop costs more than what an adult in the third world countries earns in a year. This digital divide will thus ensure such economies continue to lag behind in the development of their education systems. Another aspect that is clearly exhibited in this video relates to the relevance of the content taught in classrooms with envisioned future income earning and societal endeavors. Students seek to excel in school so as to pursue the most promising or desired education courses which will ensure sustainable social and economic freedoms. As one student in the video provides, some of the educational content in schools taught today may be irrelevant in future, a cause for concern among many students is. In conclusion, Michael Wesch video calls for the greater inclusivity of students intimate needs with regard to their future expectations and ambitions in the educational content taught in classrooms. Technological advances have indeed improved educational outcomes both for teachers and students. However, the digital divide is real and widening. Given that the information age has transformed the globe into a global village, world powers should look to equity and equality in the development of education systems all over the world.
This article applies the analytic rigor of philosophy to the vexed topic of business strategy, an... more This article applies the analytic rigor of philosophy to the vexed topic of business strategy, and uses the objective, public evidence of business strategy as an existence proof for the possibility of free will and purpose in the private realm of subjective intentionality. The first part distinguishes three types of intentionality in philosophy—purposive intentionality, referential intentionality, and the problematic intentionality of a godlike, miraculous “inner intender.” After rejecting this third type of intentionality, and noting that its rejection saves the first two types of intentionality from guilt by association, the second part draws parallels with three types of strategy in business: purposive, referential, and godlike. The first defines the goals and objectives of a company; the second picks out and targets consumers in market driven strategy; and the third, with the help of philosophical reflections, demands a rethinking of the function of leadership without reliance on a single, godlike leader. In the third part of this article, the existence proof from the public world of business is used to shed light on the possibility of intentionality in the private world of subjective intentionality. Finally, the article draws conclusions for its three audiences: for the philosophers, with credit to Nietzsche who saw it all, a greater clarity about intentionality and free will; for business people, greater clarity about the importance of purposiveness and strategic intent; and for business philosophers, a demonstration showing how—through strategy and intentionality—we can both create value and give meaning to the lives of our employees, ourselves, and our customers.
PurposeThe objective of this paper is to make a case for a scenaric stance that holds high road a... more PurposeThe objective of this paper is to make a case for a scenaric stance that holds high road and low road futures in mind at once. Opening with regrets about the total eclipse of Utopian thinking, the paper aims to move on to embrace both aspirational futures and a forthright recognition of the many ways in which things could go wrong. Adopting a scenaric stance amounts to a new, fourth attitude toward historical time and the future. The ancients lived in an ahistorical, cyclical time. Second, modernity embraced a progressive and optimistic approach to the future. Third, post‐modernity turns pessimistic about the future. Fourth, a new scenaric stance vindicates Utopian optimism by pairing it with a forthright recognition of pessimistic possibilities.Design/methodology/approachThis is a reflective, almost philosophical paper that articulates a new attitude toward the future, which demonstrates the significance of scenario planning for attitudes toward the future.FindingsA scenaric stance can restore the liberatory potential of Utopian thinking by yoking optimistic, aspirational futures together with a clear‐eyed recognition of the several ways that plans can misfire.Research limitations/implicationsThis is a philosophical, reflective piece that does not rely on any quantitative evidence or rigorous modeling.Practical implicationsThe practical implications are major: to the extent that the health of the economy relies on confidence and a willingness to take risks, a lemming‐like race to the bottom will result in a Japan‐like endless recession. A vindication is needed for aspirational scenarios.Social implicationsEveryone is better off when fewer people are living in crouch.Originality/valueAfter three decades of reviewing and contributing to the literature on future studies, the author has seen nothing that remotely resembles the argument of this paper. Its value consists in its potential for lifting people's sights. One stands in danger of a loss of confidence and an endless recession. One needs to restore a sense of possibility and optimism, but can do so responsibly only if one holds on to an honest sense of the real dangers one faces.
Systems Theory has multiple lineages: From Hegel's System, through General Systems Theory, to... more Systems Theory has multiple lineages: From Hegel's System, through General Systems Theory, to Systems Dynamics, cybernetics, and various approaches to various complex systems like healthcare. This article develops a distinction between those approaches to complex systems that stem from a common trunk: the insight that all things are interconnected. Arrogant systems thinkers aspire to a totalizing grasp of the whole. Humble systems thinkers start from the same premise of interconnectedness, but recoil from totalization and become pessimistic about the possibility of avoiding unintended side effects of any intervention in complex systems.
This article is divided into three parts. The first part describes the paradox of positive scenar... more This article is divided into three parts. The first part describes the paradox of positive scenarios: they are much harder to write than negative scenarios. The second part describes the logic of emergent systems whose properties are neither reducible to nor predictable from the properties of their component parts. The third part shows how the concept of emergence can be used to lend plausibility to those optimistic scenarios that might otherwise be rejected as mere wishful thinking.
Drawing on Alasdair MacIntyre's book, After Virtue, we criticize current approaches to busine... more Drawing on Alasdair MacIntyre's book, After Virtue, we criticize current approaches to business ethics and corporate social responsibility. Both Kantian approaches that stress the importance of good intentions, and utilitarian approaches that stress the importance of good results come under MacIntyre's critique, as do Moore's ethical intuitionism and Stevenson's emotivism. In their place, a return to Aristotle shows us the importance of good habits, good practices, and the unity of the several virtues. The example of Winston Churchill is used to illustrate virtue-based leadership.
This article covers the basics of scenario planning: Why scenarios? What are scenarios? How do yo... more This article covers the basics of scenario planning: Why scenarios? What are scenarios? How do you develop scenarios? After covering the preliminaries—the constitution of the scenario team; interviews; research; the identification of a focal issue; set and setting for a scenario workshop; staffing; the trajectory of a scenario planning project—the article moves on to describe several methods for identifying a finite set of diverse scenario logics. After a set of scenarios has been developed, there are several different routes from scenarios to strategy. Early indicators can help identify which of several scenarios is in fact unfolding.
In the face of increasing uncertainty and changes, corporations must dynamically examine their bu... more In the face of increasing uncertainty and changes, corporations must dynamically examine their business environment and activate the knowledge creation process in a future-oriented manner without getting hung up on analyzing their past (much like driving a car using only the rear-view mirror). In the previous article, we discussed the basics of scenario planning. We should not use this tool as a mere technique. Our knowledge of the world and the environment around us is important because it underlies our scenarios. When we look toward the future in an uncertain environment, we necessarily create knowledge proactively. Scenario planning and knowledge creation are commonplace when working on knowledge of innovations that shape the future. In this article we focus on the importance of having “scenario mind,” the philosophy underlying scenario planning. With any managerial tool, you cannot create real knowledge if you use only superficial know-how, like procedures described in manuals, to seek quick results. In the following sections, we discuss how scenario planning must be recognized as a “discipline of knowledge” to be embedded as a way of thinking and behavioral pattern of each individual or organization, not as a mere tool.
Strategic planning exercises often begin with the observation, “We need a better story to tell.” ... more Strategic planning exercises often begin with the observation, “We need a better story to tell.” We argue that this is not just a figure of speech but that the narrative form is uniquely appropriate to both the development and the effective communication of good strategies. Drawing on recent literature in the relatively new field of narratology, we argue that the temporal structure of stories allows for a reach into the future that evidence-based, analytic approaches cannot achieve. The case of Nakamura's turnaround at Matsushita/Panasonic is cited as an example of narrative strategy.
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