AimThe number of naturalized (i.e. established) alien species has increased rapidly over recent c... more AimThe number of naturalized (i.e. established) alien species has increased rapidly over recent centuries. Given the differences in environmental tolerances among species, little is known about what factors determine the extent to which the observed size of the naturalized range of a species and hence the extent to which the observed richness of naturalized species of a region approach their full potential. Here, we asked which region‐ and species‐specific characteristics explain differences between observed and expected naturalizations.LocationGlobal.Time periodPresent.Major taxa studiedVascular plants.MethodsWe determined the observed naturalized distribution outside Europe for 1,485 species endemic to Europe using the Global Naturalized Alien Flora (GloNAF) database and their expected distributions outside Europe using species distribution models. First, we investigated which of seven socio‐economic factors related to introduction pathways, anthropogenic pressures and inventory e...
AimPalms are an ecologically and societally important plant group, with high diversity in the Neo... more AimPalms are an ecologically and societally important plant group, with high diversity in the Neotropics. Here, we estimated the impacts of future climate change on phylogenetic diversity (PD) of Neotropical palms under varying climatic and dispersal scenarios, assessed the effectiveness of the established network of protected areas (PAs) for conserving palms PD today and in 2070, and identified priority areas for the conservation of palm species and their evolutionary history in the face of climate change.LocationNeotropics.MethodsWe used ecological niche modelling to estimate the distribution of 367 species in the present and for 2070 based on two greenhouse gas emission and two dispersal scenarios. We calculated Faith's PD within each five arc‐minute grid cell to evaluate the effectiveness of PAs relative to null models and used phylogenetic spatial prioritisation analysis to detect priority areas.ResultsWe found that even under the most optimistic climatic and dispersal scen...
QuestionsThe human‐related spread of alien plants has serious environmental and socioeconomic imp... more QuestionsThe human‐related spread of alien plants has serious environmental and socioeconomic impacts. Therefore, it is important to know which habitats are most threatened by invasion and why. We studied a wide range of European grasslands to assess: (a) which alien species are the most successful invaders in grasslands; (b) how invasion levels differ across European regions (countries or their parts) and biogeographical regions; and (c) which habitat types are the most invaded.LocationEurope.MethodsWe selected 97,411 grassland vegetation plots from the European Vegetation Archive (EVA) and assigned a native or alien status to each of the 8,212 vascular plant species found in these plots. We considered only neophytes (alien species introduced after 1500 AD), which we further divided according to their origin. We compared the levels of invasion using relative neophyte richness in the species pool, relative neophyte richness and cover per plot, and percentages of invaded plots among ...
Biodiversity science in China has seen rapid growth over recent decades, ranging from baseline bi... more Biodiversity science in China has seen rapid growth over recent decades, ranging from baseline biodiversity studies to understanding the processes behind evolution across dynamic regions such as the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. We review research, including species catalogues, biodiversity monitoring, the origins, distributions, maintenance, and threats to biodiversity, biodiversity-related ecosystem function and services, and species and ecosystems' responses to global change. Next, we identify priority topics, offer suggestions and priorities for future biodiversity research in China. These priorities include 1) the ecology and biogeography of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and surrounding mountains, and that of subtropical and tropical forests across China; 2) marine and inland aquatic biodiversity, and 3) effective conservation and management to identify and maintain synergies between biodiversity and socio-economic development to fulfil China's vision for becoming an ecologica...
Climate and land cover changes are increasing threats to biodiversity globally. However, potentia... more Climate and land cover changes are increasing threats to biodiversity globally. However, potentially varying biotic sensitivity is a major source of uncertainty for translating environmental changes to extinction risks. To reduce this uncertainty, we assessed how extinction risks will be affected by future human‐driven environmental changes, focusing on 554 species from 52 disjunct plant genera between eastern Asia (EAS) and eastern North America (ENA) to control for differences in environmental sensitivity at the genus level. Species distribution models were used to estimate and compare the vulnerability of species in disjunct genera between the two regions under two climate and land cover change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) in the 2070s, allowing to assess the effects of differences in climate and land cover pressures. Compared with ENA, stronger pressures from climate and land cover changes along with smaller range sizes in EAS translate into a larger number and proportion of sp...
ABSTRACTTropical Africa is home to an astonishing biodiversity occurring in a variety of ecosyste... more ABSTRACTTropical Africa is home to an astonishing biodiversity occurring in a variety of ecosystems. Past climatic change and geological events have impacted the evolution and diversification of this biodiversity. During the last two decades, around 90 dated molecular phylogenies of different clades across animals and plants have been published leading to an increased understanding of the diversification and speciation processes generating tropical African biodiversity. In parallel, extended geological and palaeoclimatic records together with detailed numerical simulations have refined our understanding of past geological and climatic changes in Africa. To date, these important advances have not been reviewed within a common framework. Here, we critically review and synthesize African climate, tectonics and terrestrial biodiversity evolution throughout the Cenozoic to the mid‐Pleistocene, drawing on recent advances in Earth and life sciences. We first review six major geo‐climatic p...
It has been suggested that biogeographic historical legacies in plant diversity may influence eco... more It has been suggested that biogeographic historical legacies in plant diversity may influence ecosystem functioning. This is expected because of known diversity effects on ecosystem functions, and impacts of historical events such as past climatic changes on plant diversity. However, empirical evidence for a link between biogeographic history and present‐day ecosystem functioning is still limited. Here, we explored the relationships between Late‐Quaternary climate instability, species‐pool size, local species and functional diversity, and the net primary productivity (NPP) of Northern Hemisphere forests using structural equation modelling. Our study confirms that past climate instability has negative effects on plant functional diversity and through that on NPP, after controlling for present‐day climate, soil conditions, stand biomass and age. We conclude that global models of terrestrial plant productivity need to consider the biogeographical context to improve predictions of plant...
This review explores what past environmental change in Africa—and African people's response t... more This review explores what past environmental change in Africa—and African people's response to it—can teach us about how to cope with life in the Anthropocene. Organized around four drivers of change—climate; agriculture and pastoralism; megafauna; and imperialism, colonialism, and capitalism (ICC)—our review zooms in on key regions and debates, including desertification; rangeland degradation; megafauna loss; and land grabbing. Multiscale climate change is a recurring theme in the continent's history, interacting with increasingly intense human activities from several million years onward, leading to oscillating, contingent environmental changes and societally adaptive responses. With high levels of poverty, fast population growth, and potentially dramatic impacts expected from future climate change, Africa is emblematic of the kinds of social and ecological precariousness many fear will characterize the future globally. African people's innovation and adaptation to con...
AimThe aim was to assess whether and to what extent the role of local landscape attributes in sha... more AimThe aim was to assess whether and to what extent the role of local landscape attributes in shaping macroscopic biodiversity patterns is sensitive to spatial and thematic resolutions of land cover data.LocationSub‐Saharan Africa and continental China.Time periodEarly 21st century.Taxa studiedTerrestrial mammals.MethodsWe conducted spatial and thematic scaling analyses to generate land cover datasets of different spatial (0.3, 0.5, 1.0 and 9.0 km) and thematic (two, three and five classes) resolutions. We calculated landscape metrics based on the resulting land cover maps and examined the power of landscape metrics for explaining species richness patterns, using non‐spatial (OLS) and spatial (SAR) linear models and random forest (RF) models. We systematically assessed the resolution dependence of explanatory power for different geographical regions, different scaling approaches and different model types. We also compared the explanatory power of landscape attributes with that of ma...
Reconstructing the processes that have shaped the emergence of biodiversity gradients is critical... more Reconstructing the processes that have shaped the emergence of biodiversity gradients is critical to understand the dynamics of diversification of life on Earth. Islands have traditionally been used as model systems to unravel the processes shaping biological diversity. MacArthur and Wilson's island biogeographic model predicts diversity to be based on dynamic interactions between colonization and extinction rates, while treating islands themselves as geologically static entities. The current spatial configuration of islands should influence meta-population dynamics, but long-term geological changes within archipelagos are also expected to have shaped island biodiversity, in part by driving diversification. Here, we compare two mechanistic models providing inferences on species richness at a biogeographic scale: a mechanistic spatial-temporal model of species diversification and a spatial meta-population model. While the meta-population model operates over a static landscape, th...
AimThe number of naturalized (i.e. established) alien species has increased rapidly over recent c... more AimThe number of naturalized (i.e. established) alien species has increased rapidly over recent centuries. Given the differences in environmental tolerances among species, little is known about what factors determine the extent to which the observed size of the naturalized range of a species and hence the extent to which the observed richness of naturalized species of a region approach their full potential. Here, we asked which region‐ and species‐specific characteristics explain differences between observed and expected naturalizations.LocationGlobal.Time periodPresent.Major taxa studiedVascular plants.MethodsWe determined the observed naturalized distribution outside Europe for 1,485 species endemic to Europe using the Global Naturalized Alien Flora (GloNAF) database and their expected distributions outside Europe using species distribution models. First, we investigated which of seven socio‐economic factors related to introduction pathways, anthropogenic pressures and inventory e...
AimPalms are an ecologically and societally important plant group, with high diversity in the Neo... more AimPalms are an ecologically and societally important plant group, with high diversity in the Neotropics. Here, we estimated the impacts of future climate change on phylogenetic diversity (PD) of Neotropical palms under varying climatic and dispersal scenarios, assessed the effectiveness of the established network of protected areas (PAs) for conserving palms PD today and in 2070, and identified priority areas for the conservation of palm species and their evolutionary history in the face of climate change.LocationNeotropics.MethodsWe used ecological niche modelling to estimate the distribution of 367 species in the present and for 2070 based on two greenhouse gas emission and two dispersal scenarios. We calculated Faith's PD within each five arc‐minute grid cell to evaluate the effectiveness of PAs relative to null models and used phylogenetic spatial prioritisation analysis to detect priority areas.ResultsWe found that even under the most optimistic climatic and dispersal scen...
QuestionsThe human‐related spread of alien plants has serious environmental and socioeconomic imp... more QuestionsThe human‐related spread of alien plants has serious environmental and socioeconomic impacts. Therefore, it is important to know which habitats are most threatened by invasion and why. We studied a wide range of European grasslands to assess: (a) which alien species are the most successful invaders in grasslands; (b) how invasion levels differ across European regions (countries or their parts) and biogeographical regions; and (c) which habitat types are the most invaded.LocationEurope.MethodsWe selected 97,411 grassland vegetation plots from the European Vegetation Archive (EVA) and assigned a native or alien status to each of the 8,212 vascular plant species found in these plots. We considered only neophytes (alien species introduced after 1500 AD), which we further divided according to their origin. We compared the levels of invasion using relative neophyte richness in the species pool, relative neophyte richness and cover per plot, and percentages of invaded plots among ...
Biodiversity science in China has seen rapid growth over recent decades, ranging from baseline bi... more Biodiversity science in China has seen rapid growth over recent decades, ranging from baseline biodiversity studies to understanding the processes behind evolution across dynamic regions such as the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. We review research, including species catalogues, biodiversity monitoring, the origins, distributions, maintenance, and threats to biodiversity, biodiversity-related ecosystem function and services, and species and ecosystems' responses to global change. Next, we identify priority topics, offer suggestions and priorities for future biodiversity research in China. These priorities include 1) the ecology and biogeography of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and surrounding mountains, and that of subtropical and tropical forests across China; 2) marine and inland aquatic biodiversity, and 3) effective conservation and management to identify and maintain synergies between biodiversity and socio-economic development to fulfil China's vision for becoming an ecologica...
Climate and land cover changes are increasing threats to biodiversity globally. However, potentia... more Climate and land cover changes are increasing threats to biodiversity globally. However, potentially varying biotic sensitivity is a major source of uncertainty for translating environmental changes to extinction risks. To reduce this uncertainty, we assessed how extinction risks will be affected by future human‐driven environmental changes, focusing on 554 species from 52 disjunct plant genera between eastern Asia (EAS) and eastern North America (ENA) to control for differences in environmental sensitivity at the genus level. Species distribution models were used to estimate and compare the vulnerability of species in disjunct genera between the two regions under two climate and land cover change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) in the 2070s, allowing to assess the effects of differences in climate and land cover pressures. Compared with ENA, stronger pressures from climate and land cover changes along with smaller range sizes in EAS translate into a larger number and proportion of sp...
ABSTRACTTropical Africa is home to an astonishing biodiversity occurring in a variety of ecosyste... more ABSTRACTTropical Africa is home to an astonishing biodiversity occurring in a variety of ecosystems. Past climatic change and geological events have impacted the evolution and diversification of this biodiversity. During the last two decades, around 90 dated molecular phylogenies of different clades across animals and plants have been published leading to an increased understanding of the diversification and speciation processes generating tropical African biodiversity. In parallel, extended geological and palaeoclimatic records together with detailed numerical simulations have refined our understanding of past geological and climatic changes in Africa. To date, these important advances have not been reviewed within a common framework. Here, we critically review and synthesize African climate, tectonics and terrestrial biodiversity evolution throughout the Cenozoic to the mid‐Pleistocene, drawing on recent advances in Earth and life sciences. We first review six major geo‐climatic p...
It has been suggested that biogeographic historical legacies in plant diversity may influence eco... more It has been suggested that biogeographic historical legacies in plant diversity may influence ecosystem functioning. This is expected because of known diversity effects on ecosystem functions, and impacts of historical events such as past climatic changes on plant diversity. However, empirical evidence for a link between biogeographic history and present‐day ecosystem functioning is still limited. Here, we explored the relationships between Late‐Quaternary climate instability, species‐pool size, local species and functional diversity, and the net primary productivity (NPP) of Northern Hemisphere forests using structural equation modelling. Our study confirms that past climate instability has negative effects on plant functional diversity and through that on NPP, after controlling for present‐day climate, soil conditions, stand biomass and age. We conclude that global models of terrestrial plant productivity need to consider the biogeographical context to improve predictions of plant...
This review explores what past environmental change in Africa—and African people's response t... more This review explores what past environmental change in Africa—and African people's response to it—can teach us about how to cope with life in the Anthropocene. Organized around four drivers of change—climate; agriculture and pastoralism; megafauna; and imperialism, colonialism, and capitalism (ICC)—our review zooms in on key regions and debates, including desertification; rangeland degradation; megafauna loss; and land grabbing. Multiscale climate change is a recurring theme in the continent's history, interacting with increasingly intense human activities from several million years onward, leading to oscillating, contingent environmental changes and societally adaptive responses. With high levels of poverty, fast population growth, and potentially dramatic impacts expected from future climate change, Africa is emblematic of the kinds of social and ecological precariousness many fear will characterize the future globally. African people's innovation and adaptation to con...
AimThe aim was to assess whether and to what extent the role of local landscape attributes in sha... more AimThe aim was to assess whether and to what extent the role of local landscape attributes in shaping macroscopic biodiversity patterns is sensitive to spatial and thematic resolutions of land cover data.LocationSub‐Saharan Africa and continental China.Time periodEarly 21st century.Taxa studiedTerrestrial mammals.MethodsWe conducted spatial and thematic scaling analyses to generate land cover datasets of different spatial (0.3, 0.5, 1.0 and 9.0 km) and thematic (two, three and five classes) resolutions. We calculated landscape metrics based on the resulting land cover maps and examined the power of landscape metrics for explaining species richness patterns, using non‐spatial (OLS) and spatial (SAR) linear models and random forest (RF) models. We systematically assessed the resolution dependence of explanatory power for different geographical regions, different scaling approaches and different model types. We also compared the explanatory power of landscape attributes with that of ma...
Reconstructing the processes that have shaped the emergence of biodiversity gradients is critical... more Reconstructing the processes that have shaped the emergence of biodiversity gradients is critical to understand the dynamics of diversification of life on Earth. Islands have traditionally been used as model systems to unravel the processes shaping biological diversity. MacArthur and Wilson's island biogeographic model predicts diversity to be based on dynamic interactions between colonization and extinction rates, while treating islands themselves as geologically static entities. The current spatial configuration of islands should influence meta-population dynamics, but long-term geological changes within archipelagos are also expected to have shaped island biodiversity, in part by driving diversification. Here, we compare two mechanistic models providing inferences on species richness at a biogeographic scale: a mechanistic spatial-temporal model of species diversification and a spatial meta-population model. While the meta-population model operates over a static landscape, th...
Uploads
Papers by Jens-Christian Svenning