Macroeconomic and trade policy reforms.............................................................. more Macroeconomic and trade policy reforms................................................................................................ 6
Macroeconomic and trade policy reforms.............................................................. more Macroeconomic and trade policy reforms................................................................................................ 6
... Statistics. Author Info. Joe Dewbre Dalila Cervantes-Godoy Silvia Sorescu Abstract. ... en. C... more ... Statistics. Author Info. Joe Dewbre Dalila Cervantes-Godoy Silvia Sorescu Abstract. ... en. Contact details of provider: Postal: 2 rue Andre Pascal, 75775 Paris Cedex 16 Web page: http://www.oecd.org More information through EDIRC. ...
American Journal of Agricultural Economics, May 1, 2006
With the 1996 Farm Act, the United States introduced payments that were designed to be “decoupled... more With the 1996 Farm Act, the United States introduced payments that were designed to be “decoupled.” Labor allocation choices are likely to be affected by receipt of payments, and income from off‐farm jobs has been the major source of income for most farm households for sometime. This article examines whether the 1996 change has affected the off‐farm labor participation of farm households. We conclude that the observed increase in off‐farm participation of farm operators who received payments was not the result of the 1996 policy change. Government payments, whether coupled or decoupled, have a negative effect on off‐farm labor participation.
American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Dec 1, 2009
... Relatively lower estimated coefficients on payment variables thus might imply a weaker linkbe... more ... Relatively lower estimated coefficients on payment variables thus might imply a weaker linkbetween program payments and ... A more statistically viable difference is between farms with and without off-farm income: whereas disaster ... What explains these apparent contradictions? ...
American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Dec 1, 1981
The view that futures contract prices for storable agricultural commodities are rationally held e... more The view that futures contract prices for storable agricultural commodities are rationally held expectations of subsequent cash prices has been widely accepted since Holbrook Working first explained commodity market intertemporal price behavior in these terms in 1958. Subsequent analyses by Brennan, Weymar, Tomek and Gray, and others adopted and extended Working's interpretation. Yet, despite its acceptance, implications of the rational expectations view have been all but ignored in econometric modeling efforts directed at explaining and predicting intertemporal price relations. The purpose of this paper is (a) to propose an econometric modeling approach that recognizes the role of rational expectation formation in joint determination of commodity cash and futures prices, and (b) to explore the implications of such an approach for the following issues: (i) the direction and magnitude of changes in cash and futures prices occurring in response to changes in economic information, and the direction of causality between cash and futures prices; and (ii) the function of futures markets as agencies for forecasting price and the probable forecasting performance of futures contract prices. Some issues addressed here have implications for all futures traded commodities. The arguments presented, however, relate most clearly to storable, continuously inventoried commodities. The nature of storage behavior and, thus, the relation between cash and futures prices for some commodities-livestock in particular--has not yet been resolved satisfactorily, but these issues are not addressed here. Working's theory of anticipatory prices (1958) asserts that decisions on cash and futures prices take into account all available and relevant information concerning historical relationships as well as current and expected supply-demand conditions. According to this theory, the current period futures price for a contract maturing in time t + T is the current market expectation of the subsequent cash market price in t + T. With only slight modification, this interpretation can be considered equivalent to the more current "rational expectations" or equally redundant "efficient market" hypothesis. Formally stated, the rational expectations hypothesis (Muth's extended version) asserts that expectations of individual market participants (the subjective probability distribution of price outcomes) tend to be distributed for the same information set about the predictions of the theory (the objective probability distribution of price outcomes). In another interpretation it is simply asserted that economic agents use the appropriate economic model in forming their expectations of future prices. If valid, this latter interpretation has clear implications for the construction of econometric models of futures traded commodities. To explore these implications, we posit a model which assumes rational expectation formation.
Macroeconomic and trade policy reforms.............................................................. more Macroeconomic and trade policy reforms................................................................................................ 6
Macroeconomic and trade policy reforms.............................................................. more Macroeconomic and trade policy reforms................................................................................................ 6
... Statistics. Author Info. Joe Dewbre Dalila Cervantes-Godoy Silvia Sorescu Abstract. ... en. C... more ... Statistics. Author Info. Joe Dewbre Dalila Cervantes-Godoy Silvia Sorescu Abstract. ... en. Contact details of provider: Postal: 2 rue Andre Pascal, 75775 Paris Cedex 16 Web page: http://www.oecd.org More information through EDIRC. ...
American Journal of Agricultural Economics, May 1, 2006
With the 1996 Farm Act, the United States introduced payments that were designed to be “decoupled... more With the 1996 Farm Act, the United States introduced payments that were designed to be “decoupled.” Labor allocation choices are likely to be affected by receipt of payments, and income from off‐farm jobs has been the major source of income for most farm households for sometime. This article examines whether the 1996 change has affected the off‐farm labor participation of farm households. We conclude that the observed increase in off‐farm participation of farm operators who received payments was not the result of the 1996 policy change. Government payments, whether coupled or decoupled, have a negative effect on off‐farm labor participation.
American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Dec 1, 2009
... Relatively lower estimated coefficients on payment variables thus might imply a weaker linkbe... more ... Relatively lower estimated coefficients on payment variables thus might imply a weaker linkbetween program payments and ... A more statistically viable difference is between farms with and without off-farm income: whereas disaster ... What explains these apparent contradictions? ...
American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Dec 1, 1981
The view that futures contract prices for storable agricultural commodities are rationally held e... more The view that futures contract prices for storable agricultural commodities are rationally held expectations of subsequent cash prices has been widely accepted since Holbrook Working first explained commodity market intertemporal price behavior in these terms in 1958. Subsequent analyses by Brennan, Weymar, Tomek and Gray, and others adopted and extended Working's interpretation. Yet, despite its acceptance, implications of the rational expectations view have been all but ignored in econometric modeling efforts directed at explaining and predicting intertemporal price relations. The purpose of this paper is (a) to propose an econometric modeling approach that recognizes the role of rational expectation formation in joint determination of commodity cash and futures prices, and (b) to explore the implications of such an approach for the following issues: (i) the direction and magnitude of changes in cash and futures prices occurring in response to changes in economic information, and the direction of causality between cash and futures prices; and (ii) the function of futures markets as agencies for forecasting price and the probable forecasting performance of futures contract prices. Some issues addressed here have implications for all futures traded commodities. The arguments presented, however, relate most clearly to storable, continuously inventoried commodities. The nature of storage behavior and, thus, the relation between cash and futures prices for some commodities-livestock in particular--has not yet been resolved satisfactorily, but these issues are not addressed here. Working's theory of anticipatory prices (1958) asserts that decisions on cash and futures prices take into account all available and relevant information concerning historical relationships as well as current and expected supply-demand conditions. According to this theory, the current period futures price for a contract maturing in time t + T is the current market expectation of the subsequent cash market price in t + T. With only slight modification, this interpretation can be considered equivalent to the more current "rational expectations" or equally redundant "efficient market" hypothesis. Formally stated, the rational expectations hypothesis (Muth's extended version) asserts that expectations of individual market participants (the subjective probability distribution of price outcomes) tend to be distributed for the same information set about the predictions of the theory (the objective probability distribution of price outcomes). In another interpretation it is simply asserted that economic agents use the appropriate economic model in forming their expectations of future prices. If valid, this latter interpretation has clear implications for the construction of econometric models of futures traded commodities. To explore these implications, we posit a model which assumes rational expectation formation.
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