We have assessed and synthesised land ice mass trend results published, primarily, since the IPCC... more We have assessed and synthesised land ice mass trend results published, primarily, since the IPCC AR5 (2013) to produce a consistent estimate of land ice mass trends during the satellite era (1992 to 2016). Our resulting synthesis is both consistent and rigorous, drawing on i) the published literature, ii) expert assessment of that literature, and iii) a new analysis of Arctic glacier and ice cap trends combined with statistical modelling.In the associated paper (Bamber et al 2018) we present annual and pentad (five-year mean) time series for the East, West Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets and glaciers separately and combined. When averaged over pentads, covering the entire period considered, we obtain a monotonic trend in mass contribution to the oceans, increasing from 0.31±0.35 mm of sea level equivalent for 1992-1996 to 1.85±0.13 for 2012-2016. Our integrated land ice trend is lower than many estimates of GRACE-derived ocean mass change for the same periods. This is due, in part, to a smaller estimate for glacier and ice cap mass trends compared to previous assessments. We discuss this, and other likely reasons, for the difference between GRACE ocean mass and land ice trends.
There is widespread, but often indirect, evidence that a significant fraction of the bed beneath ... more There is widespread, but often indirect, evidence that a significant fraction of the bed beneath the Greenland Ice Sheet is thawed (at or above the pressure melting point for ice). This includes the beds of major outlet glaciers and their tributaries and a large area around the NorthGRIP borehole in the ice-sheet interior. The ice-sheet scale distribution of basal water is, however, poorly constrained by existing observations. In principle, airborne radio-echo sounding (RES) enables the detection of basal water from bed-echo reflectivity, but unambiguous mapping is limited by uncertainty in signal attenuation within the ice. Here we introduce a new, RES diagnostic for basal water that is associated with wet-dry transitions in bed material: bed-echo reflectivity variability. This technique acts as a form of edge detector and is a sufficient, but not necessary, criteria for basal water. However, the technique has the advantage of being attenuation-insensitive and suited to data combination enabling combined analysis of over a decade of Operation IceBridge survey data.The basal water predictions are compared with existing analyses of the basal thermal state (frozen and thawed beds) and geothermal heat flux. In addition to the outlet glaciers, we demonstrate widespread water storage in the northern and eastern interior. Notably, we observe a quasi-linear 'corridor' of basal water extending from NorthGRIP to Petermann glacier that spatially correlates with elevated heat flux predicted by a recent magnetic model. Finally, with a general aim to stimulate regional- and process-specific investigations, the basal water predictions are compared with bed topography, subglacial flow paths, and ice-sheet motion. The basal water distribution, and its relationship with the thermal state, provides a new constraint for numerical models.
Large uncertainties remain in the current and future contribution to sea level rise from Antarcti... more Large uncertainties remain in the current and future contribution to sea level rise from Antarctica. Climate warming may increase snowfall in the continent's interior, but enhance glacier discharge at the coast where warmer air and ocean temperatures erode the buttressing ice shelves. Here, we use satellite interferometric synthetic-aperture radar observations from 1992 to 2006 covering 85% of Antarctica's coastline to estimate the total mass flux into the ocean. We compare the mass fluxes from large drainage basin units with interior snow accumulation calculated from a regional atmospheric climate model for 1980 to 2004. In East Antarctica, small glacier losses in Wilkes Land and glacier gains at the mouths of the Filchner and Ross ice shelves combine to a near-zero loss of 4 ± 61 Gt/yr. In West Antarctica, widespread losses along the Bellingshausen and Amundsen seas increased the ice sheet loss by 59% in 10 years to reach 132 ± 60 Gt/yr in 2006. In the Peninsula, losses increased by 140% to reach 60 ± 46 Gt/yr in 2006. Losses are concentrated along narrow channels occupied by outlet glaciers and are caused by ongoing and past glacier acceleration. Changes in glacier flow therefore have a significant, if not dominant impact on ice sheet mass balance.
Within the last decade, the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and its surroundings have experienced reco... more Within the last decade, the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and its surroundings have experienced record high surface temperatures (Mote, 2007, doi:10.1029/2007GL031976; Box et al., 2010), ice sheet melt extent (Fettweis et al., 2011, doi:10.5194/tc-5-359-2011) and record-low summer sea-ice extent (Nghiem et al., 2007, doi:10.1029/2007GL031138). Using three independent data sets, we derive, for the first time, consistent ice-mass trends and temporal variations within seven major drainage basins from gravity fields from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE; Tapley et al., 2004, doi:10.1029/2004GL019920), surface-ice velocities from Inteferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR; Rignot and Kanagaratnam, 2006, doi:10.1126/science.1121381) together with output of the regional atmospheric climate modelling (RACMO2/ GR; Ettema et al., 2009, doi:10.1029/2009GL038110), and surface-elevation changes from the Ice, cloud and land elevation satellite (ICESat; Sorensen et al., 2011, doi:10.5194/tc-5-173-2011). We show that changing ice discharge (D), surface melting and subsequent run-off (M/R) and precipitation (P) all contribute, in a complex and regionally variable interplay, to the increasingly negative mass balance of the GrIS observed within the last decade. Interannual variability in P along the northwest and west coasts of the GrIS largely explains the apparent regional mass loss increase during 2002-2010, and obscures increasing M/R and D since the 1990s. In winter 2002/2003 and 2008/2009, accumulation anomalies in the east and southeast temporarily outweighed the losses by M/R and D that prevailed during 2003-2008, and after summer 2010. Overall, for all basins of the GrIS, the decadal variability of anomalies in P, M/R and D between 1958 and 2010 (w.r.t. 1961-1990) was significantly exceeded by the regional trends observed during the GRACE period (2002-2011).
A major uncertainty in determining the mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet from measurements ... more A major uncertainty in determining the mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet from measurements of satellite gravimetry, and to a lesser extent satellite altimetry, is the poorly known correction for the ongoing deformation of the solid Earth caused by glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). In the past decade, much progress has been made in consistently modelling the ice sheet and solid Earth interactions; however, forward-modelling solutions of GIA in Antarctica remain uncertain due to the sparsity of constraints on the ice sheet evolution, as well as the Earth's rheological properties. An alternative approach towards estimating GIA is the joint inversion of multiple satellite data – namely, satellite gravimetry, satellite altimetry and GPS, which reflect, with different sensitivities, trends of recent glacial changes and GIA. Crucial to the success of this approach is the accuracy of the space-geodetic data sets. Here, we present reprocessed rates of surface-ice elevation ...
Clouds have an important controlling influence on the radiative balance, and as a consequence abl... more Clouds have an important controlling influence on the radiative balance, and as a consequence ablation rates, over the Greenland ice sheet. In addition, to derive reliable estimates of surface albedo, temperature and radiative fluxes from satellite data, it is necessary to adequately identify clouds in imagery. Energy balance models (EBM) for the ice sheet have been developed that use both parameterizations for cloud cover and numerical weather prediction re-analysis data. Little is known, however, about the true cloud cover characteristics over Greenland to assess the quality of these EBM inputs. Here, we attempt to address this knowledge gap by examining cloud characteristics, as determined by three different satellites sensors: AVHRR, ATSR-2 and MODIS. The first provides a multi-decadal time series of clouds, albedo and surface temperature and is available as a homogeneous, consistent data set from 1982. AVHRR data, however, is also the most challenging to cloud clear over snow-c...
Increasingly rapid ice sheet melting Glaciers on the Southern Antarctic Peninsula have begun losi... more Increasingly rapid ice sheet melting Glaciers on the Southern Antarctic Peninsula have begun losing mass at a rapid and accelerating rate. Wouters et al. documented the dramatic thinning of the land-based ice, which began in 2009, using satellite altimetry and gravity observations. The melting and weakening of ice shelves reduce their buttressing effect, allowing the glaciers to flow more quickly to the sea. Science , this issue p. 899
Grid-based calculations of balance flux and velocity have been widely used to understand the larg... more Grid-based calculations of balance flux and velocity have been widely used to understand the large-scale dynamics of ice masses and as indicators of their state of balance. This research investigates a number of issues relating to their calculation for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (see below for further details): 1) different topography smoothing techniques; 2) different grid based flow-apportioning algorithms; 3) the source of the flow direction, whether from smoothed topography, or smoothed gravitational driving stress; 4) different flux routing techniques and 5) the impact of different topographic datasets. The different algorithms described below lead to significant differences in both ice stream margins and values of fluxes within them. This encourages caution in the use of grid-based balance flux/velocity distributions and values, especially when considering the state of balance of individual ice streams. 1) Most previous calculations have used the same numerical scheme (Budd ...
<p>Bedrock and other data as described and published in the paper:</p> <p>Bambe... more <p>Bedrock and other data as described and published in the paper:</p> <p>Bamber, J. L., et al. (2013), A new bed elevation dataset for Greenland, The Cryosphere, 7(2), 499-510. The file is zipped and is in netcdf format. If you would prefer it as a geotiff, this is also available on request to j.bamber@bristol.ac.uk</p
We have assessed and synthesised land ice mass trend results published, primarily, since the IPCC... more We have assessed and synthesised land ice mass trend results published, primarily, since the IPCC AR5 (2013) to produce a consistent estimate of land ice mass trends during the satellite era (1992 to 2016). Our resulting synthesis is both consistent and rigorous, drawing on i) the published literature, ii) expert assessment of that literature, and iii) a new analysis of Arctic glacier and ice cap trends combined with statistical modelling.In the associated paper (Bamber et al 2018) we present annual and pentad (five-year mean) time series for the East, West Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets and glaciers separately and combined. When averaged over pentads, covering the entire period considered, we obtain a monotonic trend in mass contribution to the oceans, increasing from 0.31±0.35 mm of sea level equivalent for 1992-1996 to 1.85±0.13 for 2012-2016. Our integrated land ice trend is lower than many estimates of GRACE-derived ocean mass change for the same periods. This is due, in part, to a smaller estimate for glacier and ice cap mass trends compared to previous assessments. We discuss this, and other likely reasons, for the difference between GRACE ocean mass and land ice trends.
There is widespread, but often indirect, evidence that a significant fraction of the bed beneath ... more There is widespread, but often indirect, evidence that a significant fraction of the bed beneath the Greenland Ice Sheet is thawed (at or above the pressure melting point for ice). This includes the beds of major outlet glaciers and their tributaries and a large area around the NorthGRIP borehole in the ice-sheet interior. The ice-sheet scale distribution of basal water is, however, poorly constrained by existing observations. In principle, airborne radio-echo sounding (RES) enables the detection of basal water from bed-echo reflectivity, but unambiguous mapping is limited by uncertainty in signal attenuation within the ice. Here we introduce a new, RES diagnostic for basal water that is associated with wet-dry transitions in bed material: bed-echo reflectivity variability. This technique acts as a form of edge detector and is a sufficient, but not necessary, criteria for basal water. However, the technique has the advantage of being attenuation-insensitive and suited to data combination enabling combined analysis of over a decade of Operation IceBridge survey data.The basal water predictions are compared with existing analyses of the basal thermal state (frozen and thawed beds) and geothermal heat flux. In addition to the outlet glaciers, we demonstrate widespread water storage in the northern and eastern interior. Notably, we observe a quasi-linear 'corridor' of basal water extending from NorthGRIP to Petermann glacier that spatially correlates with elevated heat flux predicted by a recent magnetic model. Finally, with a general aim to stimulate regional- and process-specific investigations, the basal water predictions are compared with bed topography, subglacial flow paths, and ice-sheet motion. The basal water distribution, and its relationship with the thermal state, provides a new constraint for numerical models.
Large uncertainties remain in the current and future contribution to sea level rise from Antarcti... more Large uncertainties remain in the current and future contribution to sea level rise from Antarctica. Climate warming may increase snowfall in the continent's interior, but enhance glacier discharge at the coast where warmer air and ocean temperatures erode the buttressing ice shelves. Here, we use satellite interferometric synthetic-aperture radar observations from 1992 to 2006 covering 85% of Antarctica's coastline to estimate the total mass flux into the ocean. We compare the mass fluxes from large drainage basin units with interior snow accumulation calculated from a regional atmospheric climate model for 1980 to 2004. In East Antarctica, small glacier losses in Wilkes Land and glacier gains at the mouths of the Filchner and Ross ice shelves combine to a near-zero loss of 4 ± 61 Gt/yr. In West Antarctica, widespread losses along the Bellingshausen and Amundsen seas increased the ice sheet loss by 59% in 10 years to reach 132 ± 60 Gt/yr in 2006. In the Peninsula, losses increased by 140% to reach 60 ± 46 Gt/yr in 2006. Losses are concentrated along narrow channels occupied by outlet glaciers and are caused by ongoing and past glacier acceleration. Changes in glacier flow therefore have a significant, if not dominant impact on ice sheet mass balance.
Within the last decade, the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and its surroundings have experienced reco... more Within the last decade, the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and its surroundings have experienced record high surface temperatures (Mote, 2007, doi:10.1029/2007GL031976; Box et al., 2010), ice sheet melt extent (Fettweis et al., 2011, doi:10.5194/tc-5-359-2011) and record-low summer sea-ice extent (Nghiem et al., 2007, doi:10.1029/2007GL031138). Using three independent data sets, we derive, for the first time, consistent ice-mass trends and temporal variations within seven major drainage basins from gravity fields from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE; Tapley et al., 2004, doi:10.1029/2004GL019920), surface-ice velocities from Inteferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR; Rignot and Kanagaratnam, 2006, doi:10.1126/science.1121381) together with output of the regional atmospheric climate modelling (RACMO2/ GR; Ettema et al., 2009, doi:10.1029/2009GL038110), and surface-elevation changes from the Ice, cloud and land elevation satellite (ICESat; Sorensen et al., 2011, doi:10.5194/tc-5-173-2011). We show that changing ice discharge (D), surface melting and subsequent run-off (M/R) and precipitation (P) all contribute, in a complex and regionally variable interplay, to the increasingly negative mass balance of the GrIS observed within the last decade. Interannual variability in P along the northwest and west coasts of the GrIS largely explains the apparent regional mass loss increase during 2002-2010, and obscures increasing M/R and D since the 1990s. In winter 2002/2003 and 2008/2009, accumulation anomalies in the east and southeast temporarily outweighed the losses by M/R and D that prevailed during 2003-2008, and after summer 2010. Overall, for all basins of the GrIS, the decadal variability of anomalies in P, M/R and D between 1958 and 2010 (w.r.t. 1961-1990) was significantly exceeded by the regional trends observed during the GRACE period (2002-2011).
A major uncertainty in determining the mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet from measurements ... more A major uncertainty in determining the mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet from measurements of satellite gravimetry, and to a lesser extent satellite altimetry, is the poorly known correction for the ongoing deformation of the solid Earth caused by glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). In the past decade, much progress has been made in consistently modelling the ice sheet and solid Earth interactions; however, forward-modelling solutions of GIA in Antarctica remain uncertain due to the sparsity of constraints on the ice sheet evolution, as well as the Earth's rheological properties. An alternative approach towards estimating GIA is the joint inversion of multiple satellite data – namely, satellite gravimetry, satellite altimetry and GPS, which reflect, with different sensitivities, trends of recent glacial changes and GIA. Crucial to the success of this approach is the accuracy of the space-geodetic data sets. Here, we present reprocessed rates of surface-ice elevation ...
Clouds have an important controlling influence on the radiative balance, and as a consequence abl... more Clouds have an important controlling influence on the radiative balance, and as a consequence ablation rates, over the Greenland ice sheet. In addition, to derive reliable estimates of surface albedo, temperature and radiative fluxes from satellite data, it is necessary to adequately identify clouds in imagery. Energy balance models (EBM) for the ice sheet have been developed that use both parameterizations for cloud cover and numerical weather prediction re-analysis data. Little is known, however, about the true cloud cover characteristics over Greenland to assess the quality of these EBM inputs. Here, we attempt to address this knowledge gap by examining cloud characteristics, as determined by three different satellites sensors: AVHRR, ATSR-2 and MODIS. The first provides a multi-decadal time series of clouds, albedo and surface temperature and is available as a homogeneous, consistent data set from 1982. AVHRR data, however, is also the most challenging to cloud clear over snow-c...
Increasingly rapid ice sheet melting Glaciers on the Southern Antarctic Peninsula have begun losi... more Increasingly rapid ice sheet melting Glaciers on the Southern Antarctic Peninsula have begun losing mass at a rapid and accelerating rate. Wouters et al. documented the dramatic thinning of the land-based ice, which began in 2009, using satellite altimetry and gravity observations. The melting and weakening of ice shelves reduce their buttressing effect, allowing the glaciers to flow more quickly to the sea. Science , this issue p. 899
Grid-based calculations of balance flux and velocity have been widely used to understand the larg... more Grid-based calculations of balance flux and velocity have been widely used to understand the large-scale dynamics of ice masses and as indicators of their state of balance. This research investigates a number of issues relating to their calculation for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (see below for further details): 1) different topography smoothing techniques; 2) different grid based flow-apportioning algorithms; 3) the source of the flow direction, whether from smoothed topography, or smoothed gravitational driving stress; 4) different flux routing techniques and 5) the impact of different topographic datasets. The different algorithms described below lead to significant differences in both ice stream margins and values of fluxes within them. This encourages caution in the use of grid-based balance flux/velocity distributions and values, especially when considering the state of balance of individual ice streams. 1) Most previous calculations have used the same numerical scheme (Budd ...
<p>Bedrock and other data as described and published in the paper:</p> <p>Bambe... more <p>Bedrock and other data as described and published in the paper:</p> <p>Bamber, J. L., et al. (2013), A new bed elevation dataset for Greenland, The Cryosphere, 7(2), 499-510. The file is zipped and is in netcdf format. If you would prefer it as a geotiff, this is also available on request to j.bamber@bristol.ac.uk</p
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Papers by Jonathan Bamber