With the inclusion of demographic characteristics of the population living in vulnerable areas, a... more With the inclusion of demographic characteristics of the population living in vulnerable areas, a combination of empirical and climate models was used to project changes to climate and in hydro-geo-meteorological disasters in Brazil. This study investigated the effect of extreme rainfall changes and the risk of floods and landslides under 1.5, 2.0, and 4.0°C global warming levels (GWLs). Projections from a large ensemble of pre-CMIP6 models and different warming levels show a remarkable change in heavy precipitation. As a result, with increasing warming this enhances the risk of landslides and flash floods in the context of climate change. Comparisons of vulnerability and change in potential impacts of landslides and floods show that three regions, highly densely populated areas, are the most exposed to landslides and floods. The Southern and Southeastern of Brazil stand out, including metropolitan regions with high economic development and densely populated, which may be those wher...
Soil moisture information is essential to monitoring of the intensity of droughts, the start of t... more Soil moisture information is essential to monitoring of the intensity of droughts, the start of the rainy season, planting dates and early warnings of yield losses. We assess spatial and temporal trends of drought over the Brazilian semiarid region by combining soil moisture observations from 360 stations, root zone soil moisture from a leading land surface model, and a vegetation health index from remote sensing. The soil moisture dataset was obtained from the network of stations maintained by the National Center of Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (Cemaden), in Brazil. Soil water content at 10 to 35 cm depth, for the period 1979–2018, was obtained from running the JULES land surface model (the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator). The modelled soil moisture was correlated with measurements in the common period of 2015–2018, resulting in an average correlation coefficient of 0.48 across the domain. The standardized soil moisture anomaly (SMA) was calculated for the...
A workshop on enhancing climate change indices in South America was held in Maceió, Brazil, in Au... more A workshop on enhancing climate change indices in South America was held in Maceió, Brazil, in August 2004. Scientists from eight southern countries brought daily climatological data from their region for a meticulous assessment of data quality and homogeneity, and for the preparation of climate change indices that can be used for analyses of changes in climate extremes. This study presents an examination of the trends over 1960–2000 in the indices of daily temperature extremes. The results indicate no consistent changes in the indices based on daily maximum temperature while significant trends were found in the indices based on daily minimum temperature. Significant increasing trends in the percentage of warm nights and decreasing trends in the percentage of cold nights were observed at many stations. It seems that this warming is mostly due to more warm nights and fewer cold nights during the summer (December–February) and fall (March–May). The stations with significant trends app...
The Pantanal region in South America is one of the world's largest wetlands. Since 2019, the ... more The Pantanal region in South America is one of the world's largest wetlands. Since 2019, the Pantanal has suffered a prolonged drought that has spelled disaster for the region, and subsequent fires have engulfed hundreds of thousands of hectares. The lack of rainfall during the summers of 2019 and 2020 was caused by reduced transport of warm and humid summer air from Amazonia into the Pantanal. Instead, a predominance of warmer and drier air masses from subtropical latitudes contributed to a scarcity of summer rainfall at the peak of the monsoon season. This led to prolonged extreme drought conditions across the region. This drought had severe impacts on the hydrology of the Pantanal. Hydrometric levels fell all along the Paraguay River. In 2020, river levels reached extremely low values, and in some sections of this river, transportation had to be restricted. Very low river levels affected the mobility of people and shipping of soybeans and minerals to the Atlantic Ocean by the...
Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 2020
Since 2012, the semiarid region of Northeast Brazil (NEB) has been experiencing a continuous dry ... more Since 2012, the semiarid region of Northeast Brazil (NEB) has been experiencing a continuous dry condition imposing significant social impacts and economic losses. Characterizing the recent extreme drought events and uncovering the influence from the surrounding oceans remain to be big challenges. The physical mechanisms of extreme drought events in the NEB are due to varying interacting time scales from the surrounding tropical oceans (Pacific and Atlantic). From time series observations, we propose a three-step strategy to establish the episodic coupling directions on intraseasonal time scales from the ocean to the precipitation patterns in the NEB, focusing on the distinctive roles of the oceans during the recent extreme drought events of 2012–2013 and 2015–2016. Our algorithm involves the following: (i) computing drought period length from daily precipitation anomalies to capture extreme drought events; (ii) characterizing the episodic coupling delays from the surrounding oceans...
Amazon tropical forests and the semiarid Northeast Brazil (NEB) region have registered very sever... more Amazon tropical forests and the semiarid Northeast Brazil (NEB) region have registered very severe droughts during the last two decades, with a frequency that may have exceeded natural climate variability. Severe droughts impact the physiological response of Amazon forests, decreasing the availability to absorb atmospheric CO2, as well as biodiversity and increasing risk of fires. Droughts on this region also affect population by isolating them due to anomalous low river levels. Impacts of droughts over NEB region are related to water and energy security and subsistence agriculture. Most drought episodes over Amazonia and NEB are associated with El Niño (EN) events, anomalous warming over the Tropical North Atlantic (TNA), and even an overlapping among them. However, not all the dry episodes showed a large‐scale pattern linked to a canonical EN event or warm TNA episodes. For instance, dry episodes linked to EN events present distinct spatial patterns of precipitation anomalies depe...
With the inclusion of demographic characteristics of the population living in vulnerable areas, a... more With the inclusion of demographic characteristics of the population living in vulnerable areas, a combination of empirical and climate models was used to project changes to climate and in hydro-geo-meteorological disasters in Brazil. This study investigated the effect of extreme rainfall changes and the risk of floods and landslides under 1.5, 2.0, and 4.0°C global warming levels (GWLs). Projections from a large ensemble of pre-CMIP6 models and different warming levels show a remarkable change in heavy precipitation. As a result, with increasing warming this enhances the risk of landslides and flash floods in the context of climate change. Comparisons of vulnerability and change in potential impacts of landslides and floods show that three regions, highly densely populated areas, are the most exposed to landslides and floods. The Southern and Southeastern of Brazil stand out, including metropolitan regions with high economic development and densely populated, which may be those wher...
Soil moisture information is essential to monitoring of the intensity of droughts, the start of t... more Soil moisture information is essential to monitoring of the intensity of droughts, the start of the rainy season, planting dates and early warnings of yield losses. We assess spatial and temporal trends of drought over the Brazilian semiarid region by combining soil moisture observations from 360 stations, root zone soil moisture from a leading land surface model, and a vegetation health index from remote sensing. The soil moisture dataset was obtained from the network of stations maintained by the National Center of Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (Cemaden), in Brazil. Soil water content at 10 to 35 cm depth, for the period 1979–2018, was obtained from running the JULES land surface model (the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator). The modelled soil moisture was correlated with measurements in the common period of 2015–2018, resulting in an average correlation coefficient of 0.48 across the domain. The standardized soil moisture anomaly (SMA) was calculated for the...
A workshop on enhancing climate change indices in South America was held in Maceió, Brazil, in Au... more A workshop on enhancing climate change indices in South America was held in Maceió, Brazil, in August 2004. Scientists from eight southern countries brought daily climatological data from their region for a meticulous assessment of data quality and homogeneity, and for the preparation of climate change indices that can be used for analyses of changes in climate extremes. This study presents an examination of the trends over 1960–2000 in the indices of daily temperature extremes. The results indicate no consistent changes in the indices based on daily maximum temperature while significant trends were found in the indices based on daily minimum temperature. Significant increasing trends in the percentage of warm nights and decreasing trends in the percentage of cold nights were observed at many stations. It seems that this warming is mostly due to more warm nights and fewer cold nights during the summer (December–February) and fall (March–May). The stations with significant trends app...
The Pantanal region in South America is one of the world's largest wetlands. Since 2019, the ... more The Pantanal region in South America is one of the world's largest wetlands. Since 2019, the Pantanal has suffered a prolonged drought that has spelled disaster for the region, and subsequent fires have engulfed hundreds of thousands of hectares. The lack of rainfall during the summers of 2019 and 2020 was caused by reduced transport of warm and humid summer air from Amazonia into the Pantanal. Instead, a predominance of warmer and drier air masses from subtropical latitudes contributed to a scarcity of summer rainfall at the peak of the monsoon season. This led to prolonged extreme drought conditions across the region. This drought had severe impacts on the hydrology of the Pantanal. Hydrometric levels fell all along the Paraguay River. In 2020, river levels reached extremely low values, and in some sections of this river, transportation had to be restricted. Very low river levels affected the mobility of people and shipping of soybeans and minerals to the Atlantic Ocean by the...
Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 2020
Since 2012, the semiarid region of Northeast Brazil (NEB) has been experiencing a continuous dry ... more Since 2012, the semiarid region of Northeast Brazil (NEB) has been experiencing a continuous dry condition imposing significant social impacts and economic losses. Characterizing the recent extreme drought events and uncovering the influence from the surrounding oceans remain to be big challenges. The physical mechanisms of extreme drought events in the NEB are due to varying interacting time scales from the surrounding tropical oceans (Pacific and Atlantic). From time series observations, we propose a three-step strategy to establish the episodic coupling directions on intraseasonal time scales from the ocean to the precipitation patterns in the NEB, focusing on the distinctive roles of the oceans during the recent extreme drought events of 2012–2013 and 2015–2016. Our algorithm involves the following: (i) computing drought period length from daily precipitation anomalies to capture extreme drought events; (ii) characterizing the episodic coupling delays from the surrounding oceans...
Amazon tropical forests and the semiarid Northeast Brazil (NEB) region have registered very sever... more Amazon tropical forests and the semiarid Northeast Brazil (NEB) region have registered very severe droughts during the last two decades, with a frequency that may have exceeded natural climate variability. Severe droughts impact the physiological response of Amazon forests, decreasing the availability to absorb atmospheric CO2, as well as biodiversity and increasing risk of fires. Droughts on this region also affect population by isolating them due to anomalous low river levels. Impacts of droughts over NEB region are related to water and energy security and subsistence agriculture. Most drought episodes over Amazonia and NEB are associated with El Niño (EN) events, anomalous warming over the Tropical North Atlantic (TNA), and even an overlapping among them. However, not all the dry episodes showed a large‐scale pattern linked to a canonical EN event or warm TNA episodes. For instance, dry episodes linked to EN events present distinct spatial patterns of precipitation anomalies depe...
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Papers by Jose Marengo