When the future evolution of demographic processes is described in a stochastic setting, the chal... more When the future evolution of demographic processes is described in a stochastic setting, the challenge is to communicate the meaning of forecast uncertainty in an understandable way, to decision makers and public at large. For the purpose of risk communication, a formal setting is developed in which the roles of the demographic processes on point forecasts, and more generally, on predictive distributions, can be elucidated. The communication problem becomes central in fiscal decision making, when eventual forecast errors have differential implications on the value of the policy options being considered. Tax rate that is required to maintain financial sustainability, until a given target year, is used for illustration.
Journal of the American Statistical Association, Jun 1, 1985
"Errors in population forecasts arise from errors in the jump-off population and errors ... more "Errors in population forecasts arise from errors in the jump-off population and errors in the predictions of future vital rates. The propagation of these errors through the linear (Leslie) growth model is studied, and prediction intervals for future population are developed. For U.S. national forecasts, the prediction intervals are compared with the U.S. Census Bureau's high-low intervals." In order to assess the accuracy of the predictions of vital rates, the authors "derive the predictions from a parametric statistical model and estimate the extent of model misspecification and errors in parameter estimates. Subjective, expert opinion, so important in real forecasting, is incorporated with the technique of mixed estimation. A robust regression model is used to assess the effects of model misspecification."
"Official forecasts of mortality depend on assumptions about target values for the futur... more "Official forecasts of mortality depend on assumptions about target values for the future rates of decline in mortality rates. Smooth functions connect the jump-off (base-year) mortality to the level implied by the targets. Three alternative sets of targets are assumed, leading to high, middle, and low forecasts. We show that this process can be closely modeled using simple linear statistical models. These explicit models allow us to analyze the error structure of the forecasts. We show that the current assumption of perfect correlation between errors in different ages, at different forecast years, and for different causes of death, is erroneous. An alternative correlation structure is suggested, and we show how its parameters can be estimated from the past data. The effect of the level of aggregation on the accuracy of mortality forecasts is considered." The geographical focus is on the United States. (SUMMARY IN FRE)
Numerical procedures for calculating likelihood ratio test and score test based confidence interv... more Numerical procedures for calculating likelihood ratio test and score test based confidence intervals in generalized linear models are considered. Newton's method appears to have better convergence properties than the secant method in the likelihood ratio test case. However, the secant method may be easier to program for models with link functions that are not natural. Similarly, the secant method is easier to implement for the computation of score test based intervals. The practical implementation of the procedures in GLIM is illustrated.
International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioral Sciences, 2001
Small area usually refers to an administrative unit that is part of a larger unit, such as a coun... more Small area usually refers to an administrative unit that is part of a larger unit, such as a county, province, city, or municipality within a state. In some cases one is interested in domains defined by other criteria, such as age, sex, educational level, etc. In the case of municipalities or city blocks, populations can be small in the sense that they vary considerably from year to year. Large cities or counties may have stable populations, but their share of a national sample may be too small for direct estimation. Both types of data may have similar administrative uses, the allocation of funds, for example. In some countries direct estimates of small area populations can be continuously available from population registers. In countries that rely on censuses, demographic book keeping, administrative records, or sampling techniques are used for intercensal small area estimation. The methods used include synthetic methods that impute large area characteristics to small areas, and composite methods (such as Empirical Bayes and Hierarchical Bayes) that combine direct estimates and synthetic estimates. Forecasts of the populations of small areas differ from those of national populations because of the larger effect of migration. The handling of migration flows separates the different techniques of forecasting. Multistate methods are promising but require a lot of data. A new development in small area estimation and forecasting is the introduction of the geographic information systems (GIS). When all housing units are given geographic coordinates, new aggregates can be defined that are independent of existing administrative boundaries.
Female life expectancy has almost universally been higher than male life expectancy. But, both ha... more Female life expectancy has almost universally been higher than male life expectancy. But, both have increased rapidly during the past century. European countries differ as regards the magnitude and time trends of the female-male difference. In countries that can be characterised as Egalitarian from the point of view of gender equality, the difference increased rapidly after World War II. It is thought that a major factor in this was then wider adoption of smoking on the part of males. Subsequently the gap has clearly narrowed, and it is believed that the narrowing continues. In countries that can be characterised as Traditional from the point of view of gender equality, the gap started to widen already a century ago, with acceleration after World War II. these countries show only limited evidence of subsequent narrowing. In former socialist countries the gap has been large, and shows little narrowing. These developments are described in detail by graphical displays. It is shown that...
When the future evolution of demographic processes is described in a stochastic setting, the chal... more When the future evolution of demographic processes is described in a stochastic setting, the challenge is to communicate the meaning of forecast uncertainty in an understandable way, to decision makers and public at large. For the purpose of risk communication, a formal setting is developed in which the roles of the demographic processes on point forecasts, and more generally, on predictive distributions, can be elucidated. The communication problem becomes central in fiscal decision making, when eventual forecast errors have differential implications on the value of the policy options being considered. Tax rate that is required to maintain financial sustainability, until a given target year, is used for illustration.
Journal of the American Statistical Association, Jun 1, 1985
"Errors in population forecasts arise from errors in the jump-off population and errors ... more "Errors in population forecasts arise from errors in the jump-off population and errors in the predictions of future vital rates. The propagation of these errors through the linear (Leslie) growth model is studied, and prediction intervals for future population are developed. For U.S. national forecasts, the prediction intervals are compared with the U.S. Census Bureau's high-low intervals." In order to assess the accuracy of the predictions of vital rates, the authors "derive the predictions from a parametric statistical model and estimate the extent of model misspecification and errors in parameter estimates. Subjective, expert opinion, so important in real forecasting, is incorporated with the technique of mixed estimation. A robust regression model is used to assess the effects of model misspecification."
"Official forecasts of mortality depend on assumptions about target values for the futur... more "Official forecasts of mortality depend on assumptions about target values for the future rates of decline in mortality rates. Smooth functions connect the jump-off (base-year) mortality to the level implied by the targets. Three alternative sets of targets are assumed, leading to high, middle, and low forecasts. We show that this process can be closely modeled using simple linear statistical models. These explicit models allow us to analyze the error structure of the forecasts. We show that the current assumption of perfect correlation between errors in different ages, at different forecast years, and for different causes of death, is erroneous. An alternative correlation structure is suggested, and we show how its parameters can be estimated from the past data. The effect of the level of aggregation on the accuracy of mortality forecasts is considered." The geographical focus is on the United States. (SUMMARY IN FRE)
Numerical procedures for calculating likelihood ratio test and score test based confidence interv... more Numerical procedures for calculating likelihood ratio test and score test based confidence intervals in generalized linear models are considered. Newton's method appears to have better convergence properties than the secant method in the likelihood ratio test case. However, the secant method may be easier to program for models with link functions that are not natural. Similarly, the secant method is easier to implement for the computation of score test based intervals. The practical implementation of the procedures in GLIM is illustrated.
International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioral Sciences, 2001
Small area usually refers to an administrative unit that is part of a larger unit, such as a coun... more Small area usually refers to an administrative unit that is part of a larger unit, such as a county, province, city, or municipality within a state. In some cases one is interested in domains defined by other criteria, such as age, sex, educational level, etc. In the case of municipalities or city blocks, populations can be small in the sense that they vary considerably from year to year. Large cities or counties may have stable populations, but their share of a national sample may be too small for direct estimation. Both types of data may have similar administrative uses, the allocation of funds, for example. In some countries direct estimates of small area populations can be continuously available from population registers. In countries that rely on censuses, demographic book keeping, administrative records, or sampling techniques are used for intercensal small area estimation. The methods used include synthetic methods that impute large area characteristics to small areas, and composite methods (such as Empirical Bayes and Hierarchical Bayes) that combine direct estimates and synthetic estimates. Forecasts of the populations of small areas differ from those of national populations because of the larger effect of migration. The handling of migration flows separates the different techniques of forecasting. Multistate methods are promising but require a lot of data. A new development in small area estimation and forecasting is the introduction of the geographic information systems (GIS). When all housing units are given geographic coordinates, new aggregates can be defined that are independent of existing administrative boundaries.
Female life expectancy has almost universally been higher than male life expectancy. But, both ha... more Female life expectancy has almost universally been higher than male life expectancy. But, both have increased rapidly during the past century. European countries differ as regards the magnitude and time trends of the female-male difference. In countries that can be characterised as Egalitarian from the point of view of gender equality, the difference increased rapidly after World War II. It is thought that a major factor in this was then wider adoption of smoking on the part of males. Subsequently the gap has clearly narrowed, and it is believed that the narrowing continues. In countries that can be characterised as Traditional from the point of view of gender equality, the gap started to widen already a century ago, with acceleration after World War II. these countries show only limited evidence of subsequent narrowing. In former socialist countries the gap has been large, and shows little narrowing. These developments are described in detail by graphical displays. It is shown that...
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Papers by Juha Alho