The growth of citizen science presents a valuable potential source of calibration and validation ... more The growth of citizen science presents a valuable potential source of calibration and validation data for environmental remote sensing at greater spatial and temporal scales, and with greater cost efficiency than is achievable by professional in situ reference-data collection alone. However, the frequent mismatch between in situ data-quality requirements for remote-sensing-product development and current data quality assurance in citizen science presents a significant challenge if widespread use of these complementary data sources is to be achieved. To evaluate the scope of this challenge, we conducted a targeted literature review into the nature of data-quality issues faced by citizen-science projects for routine incorporation into terrestrial environmental-monitoring systems. From the literature, we identify the challenges and trade-offs to inform best-practice implementation of data quality assurance in citizen-science projects. To assist practitioners in implementing our finding...
Representation within the National Reserve System 2015 for Vascular Plants as a function of curre... more Representation within the National Reserve System 2015 for Vascular Plants as a function of current climate and climate change based on Generalised Dissimilarity Modelling (GDM) of compositional turnover. This metric represents a measure of the support provided for the ecological environments of each grid cell by the NRS. A full description of the project can be found in the report "Assessing the ecological representativeness of Australia's terrestrial National Reserve System: A community-level modelling approach" by KJ Williams, TD Harwood & S Ferrier (2016) at https://publications.csiro.au/rpr/pub?pid=csiro:EP163634 Four subfolders are provided: 1. P maps: 9s resolution mapping of cellwise P metric for representation of the environment of each cell within the NRS based on a GDM model of Vascular Plants. 2. IBRA maps: 9s resolution mapping of summary statistics (17: proportion 17% represented and Geometric Mean: P metric summarised by region) with single value applied to all cells within each IBRA bioregion. 3. IBRASUB maps: 9s resolution mapping of summary statistics (17: proportion 17% represented and Geometric Mean: P metric summarised by region) with single value applied to all cells within each IBRA subregion. Format ESRI float grids 4. Summary statistics: Regional statistics and histograms of distribution of values within IBRA bioregions and IBRA subregions. Format: Microsoft Excel spreadsheets. Files contain a row for each numbered region. Statistics files show the Geometric and Arithmetic Mean, the proportion of each region achieving target representation and the Maximum and Minimum cellwise representation within each region.
Novel ecological environments for Vascular Plants as a function of change in long term (30 year a... more Novel ecological environments for Vascular Plants as a function of change in long term (30 year average) climates between the present (1990 centred) and projected future (2050 centred) under the CanESM2 model (RCP 8.5) based on Generalised Dissimilarity Modelling (GDM) of compositional turnover. This metric describes the nature of the projected 2050 centred future environmental conditions for each 9s grid square. Using a Generalised Dissimilarity Model of compositional turnover (the effects of changing environment on changing species), each future location is compared with the continent in the present. For each cell, the metric looks out to all other cells in the continent, and records the ecological similarity of the future state of the cell to the most similar cell in the present. A value of 1 indicates that the future environment is similar to a current location in the present, and perfect analogue can found somewhere in Australia. A value of 0 indicates that the most similar environment to be found in the present is ecologically so different that we would expect no species in common, i.e. there are no current analogues for this environment; it is novel. Intermediate values show how ecologically similar the most similar cell is. However, no weight is given to the proximity of the most similar cell. The environment may be similar, but the cells thousands of kilometres apart. This metric was developed along with others for use in an assessment of the efficacy of the protected area system for biodiversity under climate change at continental and global scales, presented at the IUCN World Parks Congress 2014. It is described in the AdaptNRM Guide "Implications of Climate Change for Biodiversity: a community-level modelling approach", available online at: www.adaptnrm.org. Data are provided in two forms: 1. Zipped ESRI float grids: Binary float grids (*.flt) with associated ESRI header files (*.hdr) and projection files (*.prj). After extracting from the zip archive, these files can be imported into most GIS s [...]
Potential degree of ecological change in Vascular Plants as a function of change in long term (30... more Potential degree of ecological change in Vascular Plants as a function of change in long term (30 year average) climates between the present (1990 centred) and projected future (2050 centred) under the CanESM2 model (RCP 8.5) based on Generalised Dissimilarity Modelling (GDM) of compositional turnover. This metric describes the change in long term average environmental conditions at a single location (9s grid square) from the present (1990 centred) to a 2050 centred future, scaled in terms of its expected effects on the turnover of species. Compositional turnover patterns in amphibian species across continental Australia were derived using Generalised Dissimilarity Modelling (GDM). These models use best-available biological data extracted from the Atlas of Living Australia (ALA) in 2013, and spatial environmental predictor data compiled at 9 second resolution. GDM-scaled environmental grids were used as the basis for pairwise cell comparisons across space and time using the highly parallel CSIRO Muru software to derive the potential degree of ecological change. Each location is compared with its future state. The difference in environment is presented as an expected ecological similarity, ranging from 1 (completely similar) to 0, for which we would expect no species in common. If this environmental difference was observed in a different spatial location within the present, we would expect to observe such a difference if we visited both sites. This metric was developed along with others for use in an assessment of the efficacy of the protected area system for biodiversity under climate change at continental and global scales, presented at the IUCN World Parks Congress 2014. It is described in the AdaptNRM Guide "Implications of Climate Change for Biodiversity: a community-level modelling approach", available online at: www.adaptnrm.org. Data are provided in two forms: 1. Zipped ESRI float grids: Binary float grids (*.flt) with associated ESRI header files (*.hdr) and projection files (*.prj). After extractin [...]
International Journal of Geographical Information Science, Aug 26, 2015
The Atlas of Living Australia (ALA: http://www.ala.org.au) provides the largest free and open rep... more The Atlas of Living Australia (ALA: http://www.ala.org.au) provides the largest free and open repository of integrated biological and environmental information in a consistent format for the Australian region. As of June 2015, the ALA contained over 55 million records (10% of Global Biodiversity Information Facility’s (GBIF’s) total), consisting of 150,000+ native and alien species, nearly 500 layers of gridded and polygonal bio-environmental data, 39+ million pages of biological literature, and 45,000+ images of species and other integrated biological data. The development of the research interface to the ALA (http://spatial.ala.org.au) was the trigger to develop an architecture designed to tightly integrate environmental data for online use with biological data. Environmental layers are classed as environmental (gridded with continuous values) or contextual (polygonal with discrete class values). A suite of analysis and visualization tools have been developed to demonstrate the value of integrating the ALA’s biological and environmental data. This paper outlines the purpose and process of establishing the ALA and discusses the integration of environmental data relevant to biodiversity research in the Australian region and the vision for continually improved services for research, area management, education, and citizen science. The ALA’s environmental infrastructure addresses current needs but increased data types, volumes, and resolution suggests new directions are needed to provide quality services into the future. The experience of building the ALA has relevance for other agencies setting up similar infrastructure which supports integrated access to and use of their national biological and environmental information.
Summary Consistent and repeatable estimation of habitat condition for biodiversity assessment acr... more Summary Consistent and repeatable estimation of habitat condition for biodiversity assessment across large areas (i.e. regional to global) with limited field observations presents a major challenge for remote sensing (RS). RS can describe what a site looks like and how it behaves (using time series), but is unable to distinguish anthropogenic impacts from natural dynamics. Consequently, it is possible to mistake a heavily degraded habitat for a natural habitat, for example a logged forest may appear identical to an intact open woodland. This problem is compounded by the existence of multiple natural states in any given environment, and spatial variation in the natural composition and structure of vegetation as a function of variation in environment. Uncertainty in assessing habitat condition from RS is often further exacerbated by sparseness in the spatial coverage of training data. We describe a novel generic, RS‐based algorithm called Habitat Condition Assessment System, designed to address the above sources of uncertainty and to be highly flexible in its application. It allows for variability in the definition of condition and in the type and quantity of input data employed. Here, we demonstrate the mechanics of the new algorithm in a simple worked example and its practical application in a case study using inferred ‘natural‐only’ reference data, reflective remotely sensed data, and associated environmental data, to map condition for Australia at a 0·01° resolution. We assess the behaviour and shortcomings of the method, and compare the national case study with estimates from two existing national data sets, and field measured condition data observed at 16 967 sites across the State of Victoria. The modelled predictions outperform both of the existing national data sets, explaining 52% of the variability in field observations for well‐sampled cells (relative to 8% and 12% for the existing products). The methodology can potentially address some of the key pitfalls of condition modelling and could be applied in other regions with sufficient coverage of reference data. The approach also has good potential to be extended to work with reference data for which condition is measured on a continuous scale, for example from field‐based condition assessment initiatives.
Globally, collapse of ecosystems—potentially irreversible change to ecosystem structure, composit... more Globally, collapse of ecosystems—potentially irreversible change to ecosystem structure, composition and function—imperils biodiversity, human health and well‐being. We examine the current state and recent trajectories of 19 ecosystems, spanning 58° of latitude across 7.7 M km2, from Australia's coral reefs to terrestrial Antarctica. Pressures from global climate change and regional human impacts, occurring as chronic ‘presses’ and/or acute ‘pulses’, drive ecosystem collapse. Ecosystem responses to 5–17 pressures were categorised as four collapse profiles—abrupt, smooth, stepped and fluctuating. The manifestation of widespread ecosystem collapse is a stark warning of the necessity to take action. We present a three‐step assessment and management framework (3As Pathway Awareness, Anticipation and Action) to aid strategic and effective mitigation to alleviate further degradation to help secure our future.
AimA key ecological debate is whether ecosystem functions are distinctly influenced by biological... more AimA key ecological debate is whether ecosystem functions are distinctly influenced by biological diversity across broad scales. Although recent work has emphasized the importance of links between ecosystem functions and measures of ecological specialization as proxies of biodiversity, few studies have analysed macroecological relationships empirically in diverse environments. We tested whether gross primary productivity (GPP) in the Australian Wet Tropics (WT) was distinctly related to community‐level measures of the ecological specialization of component tree species across climate space, after accounting for climate drivers.LocationWet Tropics, Australia.Time period1976–2012.Major taxa studiedNine hundred and forty‐eight WT tree species.MethodsUsing all geographically valid herbarium records for WT trees, we quantified the realized climatic niche widths using continental surfaces for maximum temperature of the warmest period and total annual rainfall. The median realized niche wi...
Freshwater aquatic ecosystems are in decline due to intensifying land use, salinisation, water ab... more Freshwater aquatic ecosystems are in decline due to intensifying land use, salinisation, water abstraction and climate change. Understanding compositional patterns in aquatic biota is a useful step towards better management of aquatic ecosystems. We used generalised dissimilarity modelling (GDM) to predict compositional turnover in riverine invertebrate fauna (primarily insects) as a function of environment. Conceptual understanding of major drivers of aquatic invertebrate species distribution helped decide which predictor variables to source and include. Five groups of environmental variables—waterscape, local habitat, climate, landscape and disturbance—were derived from either spatial layers or in situ (site) measurements. Predictive models and variance partitioning tests of variable groups demonstrated the importance of representing all conceptual drivers of ecological pattern and process. As expected, waterscape variables were independently the most important group, followed by local habitat and landscape variables; with complex interactions between groups. Climate variables independently contributed the least. To determine the information content for mapping patterns, we investigated the independent and combined contribution of site-measured and spatial predictors. Even though predictive models developed using only site-measured variables or only spatial variables explained around the same amount of deviance (DE), combined they increased explained model DE by 11.2%. Compositional dissimilarities between the 51 surveyed site pairs predicted by the model using only spatial variables were highly correlated (r2 = .85) with dissimilarities predicted using site and spatial variables. These results support the use of the spatial model for conservation decisions. The spatial model was used to evaluate representativeness of both the conservation reserve network and biological monitoring locations. The location of aquatic monitoring sites was uneven, with comprehensive coverage south and coastward, and less representative of inland environments. Proportional protection of ecological environments (scaled by riverine invertebrate taxa) was found to vary between 20% and 30%, being higher in southern parts where more land has been allocated to reserves and less in northern and inland parts. This demonstrated local progress towards achieving the Convention on Biological Diversity's Aichi Target 11 for inland waters. These results provide a focus for improving the robustness of information used in decisions affecting the conservation of aquatic biodiversity, including places to target to fill gaps in the reserve network and additional aquatic monitoring locations (supporting Convention on Biological Diversity's Aichi Target 19). The GDM-based approach to characterising ecological environments, provided a first quantitative foundation for comprehensively evaluating the conservation status of freshwater ecosystems in south-western Australia. Potential future applications include assessing the ecological implications of land use and climate change.
AimSpatial turnover in plant species composition reflects the interplay between species’ environm... more AimSpatial turnover in plant species composition reflects the interplay between species’ environmental requirements and their dispersal dynamics. However, its origins are also historical, arising from speciation, extinction and past range dynamics. Here, we test the effects of current environmental gradients and geographical distance on regional species turnover. Using a new approach, we then interpret residual turnover patterns, unexplained by these factors.LocationNative vegetation in the wheatbelt of the Southwest Australian Floristic Region (SWAFR).MethodsWe fitted a generalized dissimilarity model of species turnover across 650 floristic inventory plots as a function of current climate, topography, soils and inter‐plot distances. We then decomposed the model errors into independent axes of residual variation, representing unexplained species turnover. We mapped the spatial patterns evident on the main residual axes, and interpreted these using ancillary data on the life form an...
ABSTRACT Global agroecosystems can contribute to both climate change mitigation and biodiversity ... more ABSTRACT Global agroecosystems can contribute to both climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation, and market mechanisms provide a highly prospective means of achieving these outcomes. However, the ability of markets to motivate the supply of carbon sequestration and biodiversity services from agricultural land is uncertain, especially given the future changes in environmental, economic, and social drivers. We quantified the potential supply of these services from the intensive agricultural land of Australia from 2013 to 2050 under four global outlooks in response to a carbon price and biodiversity payment scheme. Each global outlook specified emissions pathways, climate, food demand, energy price, and carbon price modeled using the Global Integrated Assessment Model (GIAM). Using a simplified version of the Land Use Trade-Offs (LUTO) model, economic returns to agriculture, carbon plantings, and environmental plantings were calculated each year. The supply of carbon sequestration and biodiversity services was then quantified given potential land use change under each global outlook, and the sensitivity of the results to key parameters was assessed. We found that carbon supply curves were similar across global outlooks. Sharp increases in carbon sequestration supply occurred at carbon prices exceeding 50 $ tCO2−1 in 2015 and exceeding 65 $ tCO2−1 in 2050. Based on GIAM-modeled carbon prices, little carbon sequestration was expected at 2015 under any global outlook. However, at 2050 expected carbon supply under each outlook differed markedly, ranging from 0 to 189 MtCO2 yr−1. Biodiversity services of 3.32% of the maximum may be achieved in 2050 for a 1 $B investment under median scenario settings. We conclude that a carbon market can motivate supply of substantial carbon sequestration but only modest amounts of biodiversity services from agricultural land. A complementary biodiversity payment can synergistically increase the supply of biodiversity services but will not provide much additional carbon sequestration. The results were sensitive to global drivers, especially the carbon price, and the domestic drivers of adoption hurdle rate and agricultural productivity. The results can inform the design of an effective national policy and institutional portfolio addressing the dual objectives of climate change and biodiversity conservation that is robust to future uncertainty in both national and global drivers.
The growth of citizen science presents a valuable potential source of calibration and validation ... more The growth of citizen science presents a valuable potential source of calibration and validation data for environmental remote sensing at greater spatial and temporal scales, and with greater cost efficiency than is achievable by professional in situ reference-data collection alone. However, the frequent mismatch between in situ data-quality requirements for remote-sensing-product development and current data quality assurance in citizen science presents a significant challenge if widespread use of these complementary data sources is to be achieved. To evaluate the scope of this challenge, we conducted a targeted literature review into the nature of data-quality issues faced by citizen-science projects for routine incorporation into terrestrial environmental-monitoring systems. From the literature, we identify the challenges and trade-offs to inform best-practice implementation of data quality assurance in citizen-science projects. To assist practitioners in implementing our finding...
Representation within the National Reserve System 2015 for Vascular Plants as a function of curre... more Representation within the National Reserve System 2015 for Vascular Plants as a function of current climate and climate change based on Generalised Dissimilarity Modelling (GDM) of compositional turnover. This metric represents a measure of the support provided for the ecological environments of each grid cell by the NRS. A full description of the project can be found in the report "Assessing the ecological representativeness of Australia's terrestrial National Reserve System: A community-level modelling approach" by KJ Williams, TD Harwood & S Ferrier (2016) at https://publications.csiro.au/rpr/pub?pid=csiro:EP163634 Four subfolders are provided: 1. P maps: 9s resolution mapping of cellwise P metric for representation of the environment of each cell within the NRS based on a GDM model of Vascular Plants. 2. IBRA maps: 9s resolution mapping of summary statistics (17: proportion 17% represented and Geometric Mean: P metric summarised by region) with single value applied to all cells within each IBRA bioregion. 3. IBRASUB maps: 9s resolution mapping of summary statistics (17: proportion 17% represented and Geometric Mean: P metric summarised by region) with single value applied to all cells within each IBRA subregion. Format ESRI float grids 4. Summary statistics: Regional statistics and histograms of distribution of values within IBRA bioregions and IBRA subregions. Format: Microsoft Excel spreadsheets. Files contain a row for each numbered region. Statistics files show the Geometric and Arithmetic Mean, the proportion of each region achieving target representation and the Maximum and Minimum cellwise representation within each region.
Novel ecological environments for Vascular Plants as a function of change in long term (30 year a... more Novel ecological environments for Vascular Plants as a function of change in long term (30 year average) climates between the present (1990 centred) and projected future (2050 centred) under the CanESM2 model (RCP 8.5) based on Generalised Dissimilarity Modelling (GDM) of compositional turnover. This metric describes the nature of the projected 2050 centred future environmental conditions for each 9s grid square. Using a Generalised Dissimilarity Model of compositional turnover (the effects of changing environment on changing species), each future location is compared with the continent in the present. For each cell, the metric looks out to all other cells in the continent, and records the ecological similarity of the future state of the cell to the most similar cell in the present. A value of 1 indicates that the future environment is similar to a current location in the present, and perfect analogue can found somewhere in Australia. A value of 0 indicates that the most similar environment to be found in the present is ecologically so different that we would expect no species in common, i.e. there are no current analogues for this environment; it is novel. Intermediate values show how ecologically similar the most similar cell is. However, no weight is given to the proximity of the most similar cell. The environment may be similar, but the cells thousands of kilometres apart. This metric was developed along with others for use in an assessment of the efficacy of the protected area system for biodiversity under climate change at continental and global scales, presented at the IUCN World Parks Congress 2014. It is described in the AdaptNRM Guide "Implications of Climate Change for Biodiversity: a community-level modelling approach", available online at: www.adaptnrm.org. Data are provided in two forms: 1. Zipped ESRI float grids: Binary float grids (*.flt) with associated ESRI header files (*.hdr) and projection files (*.prj). After extracting from the zip archive, these files can be imported into most GIS s [...]
Potential degree of ecological change in Vascular Plants as a function of change in long term (30... more Potential degree of ecological change in Vascular Plants as a function of change in long term (30 year average) climates between the present (1990 centred) and projected future (2050 centred) under the CanESM2 model (RCP 8.5) based on Generalised Dissimilarity Modelling (GDM) of compositional turnover. This metric describes the change in long term average environmental conditions at a single location (9s grid square) from the present (1990 centred) to a 2050 centred future, scaled in terms of its expected effects on the turnover of species. Compositional turnover patterns in amphibian species across continental Australia were derived using Generalised Dissimilarity Modelling (GDM). These models use best-available biological data extracted from the Atlas of Living Australia (ALA) in 2013, and spatial environmental predictor data compiled at 9 second resolution. GDM-scaled environmental grids were used as the basis for pairwise cell comparisons across space and time using the highly parallel CSIRO Muru software to derive the potential degree of ecological change. Each location is compared with its future state. The difference in environment is presented as an expected ecological similarity, ranging from 1 (completely similar) to 0, for which we would expect no species in common. If this environmental difference was observed in a different spatial location within the present, we would expect to observe such a difference if we visited both sites. This metric was developed along with others for use in an assessment of the efficacy of the protected area system for biodiversity under climate change at continental and global scales, presented at the IUCN World Parks Congress 2014. It is described in the AdaptNRM Guide "Implications of Climate Change for Biodiversity: a community-level modelling approach", available online at: www.adaptnrm.org. Data are provided in two forms: 1. Zipped ESRI float grids: Binary float grids (*.flt) with associated ESRI header files (*.hdr) and projection files (*.prj). After extractin [...]
International Journal of Geographical Information Science, Aug 26, 2015
The Atlas of Living Australia (ALA: http://www.ala.org.au) provides the largest free and open rep... more The Atlas of Living Australia (ALA: http://www.ala.org.au) provides the largest free and open repository of integrated biological and environmental information in a consistent format for the Australian region. As of June 2015, the ALA contained over 55 million records (10% of Global Biodiversity Information Facility’s (GBIF’s) total), consisting of 150,000+ native and alien species, nearly 500 layers of gridded and polygonal bio-environmental data, 39+ million pages of biological literature, and 45,000+ images of species and other integrated biological data. The development of the research interface to the ALA (http://spatial.ala.org.au) was the trigger to develop an architecture designed to tightly integrate environmental data for online use with biological data. Environmental layers are classed as environmental (gridded with continuous values) or contextual (polygonal with discrete class values). A suite of analysis and visualization tools have been developed to demonstrate the value of integrating the ALA’s biological and environmental data. This paper outlines the purpose and process of establishing the ALA and discusses the integration of environmental data relevant to biodiversity research in the Australian region and the vision for continually improved services for research, area management, education, and citizen science. The ALA’s environmental infrastructure addresses current needs but increased data types, volumes, and resolution suggests new directions are needed to provide quality services into the future. The experience of building the ALA has relevance for other agencies setting up similar infrastructure which supports integrated access to and use of their national biological and environmental information.
Summary Consistent and repeatable estimation of habitat condition for biodiversity assessment acr... more Summary Consistent and repeatable estimation of habitat condition for biodiversity assessment across large areas (i.e. regional to global) with limited field observations presents a major challenge for remote sensing (RS). RS can describe what a site looks like and how it behaves (using time series), but is unable to distinguish anthropogenic impacts from natural dynamics. Consequently, it is possible to mistake a heavily degraded habitat for a natural habitat, for example a logged forest may appear identical to an intact open woodland. This problem is compounded by the existence of multiple natural states in any given environment, and spatial variation in the natural composition and structure of vegetation as a function of variation in environment. Uncertainty in assessing habitat condition from RS is often further exacerbated by sparseness in the spatial coverage of training data. We describe a novel generic, RS‐based algorithm called Habitat Condition Assessment System, designed to address the above sources of uncertainty and to be highly flexible in its application. It allows for variability in the definition of condition and in the type and quantity of input data employed. Here, we demonstrate the mechanics of the new algorithm in a simple worked example and its practical application in a case study using inferred ‘natural‐only’ reference data, reflective remotely sensed data, and associated environmental data, to map condition for Australia at a 0·01° resolution. We assess the behaviour and shortcomings of the method, and compare the national case study with estimates from two existing national data sets, and field measured condition data observed at 16 967 sites across the State of Victoria. The modelled predictions outperform both of the existing national data sets, explaining 52% of the variability in field observations for well‐sampled cells (relative to 8% and 12% for the existing products). The methodology can potentially address some of the key pitfalls of condition modelling and could be applied in other regions with sufficient coverage of reference data. The approach also has good potential to be extended to work with reference data for which condition is measured on a continuous scale, for example from field‐based condition assessment initiatives.
Globally, collapse of ecosystems—potentially irreversible change to ecosystem structure, composit... more Globally, collapse of ecosystems—potentially irreversible change to ecosystem structure, composition and function—imperils biodiversity, human health and well‐being. We examine the current state and recent trajectories of 19 ecosystems, spanning 58° of latitude across 7.7 M km2, from Australia's coral reefs to terrestrial Antarctica. Pressures from global climate change and regional human impacts, occurring as chronic ‘presses’ and/or acute ‘pulses’, drive ecosystem collapse. Ecosystem responses to 5–17 pressures were categorised as four collapse profiles—abrupt, smooth, stepped and fluctuating. The manifestation of widespread ecosystem collapse is a stark warning of the necessity to take action. We present a three‐step assessment and management framework (3As Pathway Awareness, Anticipation and Action) to aid strategic and effective mitigation to alleviate further degradation to help secure our future.
AimA key ecological debate is whether ecosystem functions are distinctly influenced by biological... more AimA key ecological debate is whether ecosystem functions are distinctly influenced by biological diversity across broad scales. Although recent work has emphasized the importance of links between ecosystem functions and measures of ecological specialization as proxies of biodiversity, few studies have analysed macroecological relationships empirically in diverse environments. We tested whether gross primary productivity (GPP) in the Australian Wet Tropics (WT) was distinctly related to community‐level measures of the ecological specialization of component tree species across climate space, after accounting for climate drivers.LocationWet Tropics, Australia.Time period1976–2012.Major taxa studiedNine hundred and forty‐eight WT tree species.MethodsUsing all geographically valid herbarium records for WT trees, we quantified the realized climatic niche widths using continental surfaces for maximum temperature of the warmest period and total annual rainfall. The median realized niche wi...
Freshwater aquatic ecosystems are in decline due to intensifying land use, salinisation, water ab... more Freshwater aquatic ecosystems are in decline due to intensifying land use, salinisation, water abstraction and climate change. Understanding compositional patterns in aquatic biota is a useful step towards better management of aquatic ecosystems. We used generalised dissimilarity modelling (GDM) to predict compositional turnover in riverine invertebrate fauna (primarily insects) as a function of environment. Conceptual understanding of major drivers of aquatic invertebrate species distribution helped decide which predictor variables to source and include. Five groups of environmental variables—waterscape, local habitat, climate, landscape and disturbance—were derived from either spatial layers or in situ (site) measurements. Predictive models and variance partitioning tests of variable groups demonstrated the importance of representing all conceptual drivers of ecological pattern and process. As expected, waterscape variables were independently the most important group, followed by local habitat and landscape variables; with complex interactions between groups. Climate variables independently contributed the least. To determine the information content for mapping patterns, we investigated the independent and combined contribution of site-measured and spatial predictors. Even though predictive models developed using only site-measured variables or only spatial variables explained around the same amount of deviance (DE), combined they increased explained model DE by 11.2%. Compositional dissimilarities between the 51 surveyed site pairs predicted by the model using only spatial variables were highly correlated (r2 = .85) with dissimilarities predicted using site and spatial variables. These results support the use of the spatial model for conservation decisions. The spatial model was used to evaluate representativeness of both the conservation reserve network and biological monitoring locations. The location of aquatic monitoring sites was uneven, with comprehensive coverage south and coastward, and less representative of inland environments. Proportional protection of ecological environments (scaled by riverine invertebrate taxa) was found to vary between 20% and 30%, being higher in southern parts where more land has been allocated to reserves and less in northern and inland parts. This demonstrated local progress towards achieving the Convention on Biological Diversity's Aichi Target 11 for inland waters. These results provide a focus for improving the robustness of information used in decisions affecting the conservation of aquatic biodiversity, including places to target to fill gaps in the reserve network and additional aquatic monitoring locations (supporting Convention on Biological Diversity's Aichi Target 19). The GDM-based approach to characterising ecological environments, provided a first quantitative foundation for comprehensively evaluating the conservation status of freshwater ecosystems in south-western Australia. Potential future applications include assessing the ecological implications of land use and climate change.
AimSpatial turnover in plant species composition reflects the interplay between species’ environm... more AimSpatial turnover in plant species composition reflects the interplay between species’ environmental requirements and their dispersal dynamics. However, its origins are also historical, arising from speciation, extinction and past range dynamics. Here, we test the effects of current environmental gradients and geographical distance on regional species turnover. Using a new approach, we then interpret residual turnover patterns, unexplained by these factors.LocationNative vegetation in the wheatbelt of the Southwest Australian Floristic Region (SWAFR).MethodsWe fitted a generalized dissimilarity model of species turnover across 650 floristic inventory plots as a function of current climate, topography, soils and inter‐plot distances. We then decomposed the model errors into independent axes of residual variation, representing unexplained species turnover. We mapped the spatial patterns evident on the main residual axes, and interpreted these using ancillary data on the life form an...
ABSTRACT Global agroecosystems can contribute to both climate change mitigation and biodiversity ... more ABSTRACT Global agroecosystems can contribute to both climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation, and market mechanisms provide a highly prospective means of achieving these outcomes. However, the ability of markets to motivate the supply of carbon sequestration and biodiversity services from agricultural land is uncertain, especially given the future changes in environmental, economic, and social drivers. We quantified the potential supply of these services from the intensive agricultural land of Australia from 2013 to 2050 under four global outlooks in response to a carbon price and biodiversity payment scheme. Each global outlook specified emissions pathways, climate, food demand, energy price, and carbon price modeled using the Global Integrated Assessment Model (GIAM). Using a simplified version of the Land Use Trade-Offs (LUTO) model, economic returns to agriculture, carbon plantings, and environmental plantings were calculated each year. The supply of carbon sequestration and biodiversity services was then quantified given potential land use change under each global outlook, and the sensitivity of the results to key parameters was assessed. We found that carbon supply curves were similar across global outlooks. Sharp increases in carbon sequestration supply occurred at carbon prices exceeding 50 $ tCO2−1 in 2015 and exceeding 65 $ tCO2−1 in 2050. Based on GIAM-modeled carbon prices, little carbon sequestration was expected at 2015 under any global outlook. However, at 2050 expected carbon supply under each outlook differed markedly, ranging from 0 to 189 MtCO2 yr−1. Biodiversity services of 3.32% of the maximum may be achieved in 2050 for a 1 $B investment under median scenario settings. We conclude that a carbon market can motivate supply of substantial carbon sequestration but only modest amounts of biodiversity services from agricultural land. A complementary biodiversity payment can synergistically increase the supply of biodiversity services but will not provide much additional carbon sequestration. The results were sensitive to global drivers, especially the carbon price, and the domestic drivers of adoption hurdle rate and agricultural productivity. The results can inform the design of an effective national policy and institutional portfolio addressing the dual objectives of climate change and biodiversity conservation that is robust to future uncertainty in both national and global drivers.
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Papers by Kristen Williams