k= 0 ak (1+ z) kk!, a0≥ a1≥···≥ 0, and show that they are either constant or convex univalent in ... more k= 0 ak (1+ z) kk!, a0≥ a1≥···≥ 0, and show that they are either constant or convex univalent in the unit disk D. Note that this set of functions is invariant under differentiation. Our result generalizes a previous one of Suffridge, and we verify a number of general ...
Identifying the optimal switching point between different invasive alien species (IAS) management... more Identifying the optimal switching point between different invasive alien species (IAS) management policies is a very complex task and policy makers are in need of modelling tools to assist them. In this paper we develop an optimal control bioeconomic model to estimate the type of optimal policy and switching point of control efforts against a spreading IAS. We apply the models to the case study of Colorado potato beetle in the UK. The results demonstrate that eradication is optimal for small initial sizes of invasion at discovery. High capacity of the agency to reduce spread velocity for several years leads to smaller total overall costs of invasion and makes eradication optimal for larger sizes of initial invasion. In many cases, it is optimal to switch from control to acceptance within the time horizon. The switching point depends on the capacity of the agency, initial size of invasion, spread velocity of the IAS and the ratio of unit cost of damage and removal. We encourage the i...
Control of emerging animal diseases critically depends on their early detection. However, designi... more Control of emerging animal diseases critically depends on their early detection. However, designing surveillance programs for exotic and emerging diseases is very challenging because of knowledge gaps on the probability of incursion and mechanisms of spread. Using the example of Bluetongue Virus, which is exotic to the UK, we develop a metapopulation epidemic-economic modelling framework that considers the incursion, detection, spread and control of a disease in a livestock production system composed of heterogeneous subpopulations. The model is then embedded in an information gap (info-gap) framework to assess the robustness of surveillance and vaccination policies to unacceptable outbreaks losses and applied to the case of Bluetongue in the UK. The results show that active reporting of suspect clinical signs by farmers is a very robust way to reduce unacceptable outcomes. Vaccination of animals in high risk regions led to robustly protective programs. If vaccines are not available...
k= 0 ak (1+ z) kk!, a0≥ a1≥···≥ 0, and show that they are either constant or convex univalent in ... more k= 0 ak (1+ z) kk!, a0≥ a1≥···≥ 0, and show that they are either constant or convex univalent in the unit disk D. Note that this set of functions is invariant under differentiation. Our result generalizes a previous one of Suffridge, and we verify a number of general ...
Identifying the optimal switching point between different invasive alien species (IAS) management... more Identifying the optimal switching point between different invasive alien species (IAS) management policies is a very complex task and policy makers are in need of modelling tools to assist them. In this paper we develop an optimal control bioeconomic model to estimate the type of optimal policy and switching point of control efforts against a spreading IAS. We apply the models to the case study of Colorado potato beetle in the UK. The results demonstrate that eradication is optimal for small initial sizes of invasion at discovery. High capacity of the agency to reduce spread velocity for several years leads to smaller total overall costs of invasion and makes eradication optimal for larger sizes of initial invasion. In many cases, it is optimal to switch from control to acceptance within the time horizon. The switching point depends on the capacity of the agency, initial size of invasion, spread velocity of the IAS and the ratio of unit cost of damage and removal. We encourage the i...
Control of emerging animal diseases critically depends on their early detection. However, designi... more Control of emerging animal diseases critically depends on their early detection. However, designing surveillance programs for exotic and emerging diseases is very challenging because of knowledge gaps on the probability of incursion and mechanisms of spread. Using the example of Bluetongue Virus, which is exotic to the UK, we develop a metapopulation epidemic-economic modelling framework that considers the incursion, detection, spread and control of a disease in a livestock production system composed of heterogeneous subpopulations. The model is then embedded in an information gap (info-gap) framework to assess the robustness of surveillance and vaccination policies to unacceptable outbreaks losses and applied to the case of Bluetongue in the UK. The results show that active reporting of suspect clinical signs by farmers is a very robust way to reduce unacceptable outcomes. Vaccination of animals in high risk regions led to robustly protective programs. If vaccines are not available...
Uploads
Papers by L. Salinas