In most developed countries, the acceleration of coastal urbanization during the second half of t... more In most developed countries, the acceleration of coastal urbanization during the second half of the twentieth century has gradually resulted in a concentration of residential housing and associated infrastructure and facilities along a narrow coastal strip, along with various environmental, functional and social impacts. This has led certain countries, such as France, to adopt protection legislation with respect to their coastlines. However, while numerous studies describe and analyse the consequences of urbanization on the coastal environment, few of them examine the influence of the coast on urbanization. This paper focuses on the residential development process, considering the coastline as both a pull factor on account of its amenities, and as a constraint due to the legislation put in place to protect it. Our study aims to build a database describing the factors that influence the probability of housing development on vacant land and to analyse the spatiotemporal evolution through a logistic regression modelling approach. While controlling the factors usually mentioned in the scientific literature on urban sprawl and suburbanization, this method is also able to isolate the effects of coastal attractiveness, taking laws and bylaws regulating urbanization in such areas into consideration. It shows in particular that, since the early 2000s, the gradual implementation of a land planning framework specific to the coastal zone has led to improved regulation of housing development in the study area. Throughout the country, the French Coastal Law limited available land for housing development, particularly in coastal areas, by enforcing building restrictions in accordance with conservation principles. The paper concludes with potential improvements to our models, e.g. the integration of local economic factors, such as land costs or changes in taxation, all of which influence housing choices and could potentially regulate suburbanization.
Land use and land cover evolution was contributing to the emergence of geographical information s... more Land use and land cover evolution was contributing to the emergence of geographical information systems. Today, most applications benefit from sophisticated technologies for gathering and analysing data, which is of great value for urban and regional planning. This paper presents a typology and conceptual frameworks for the specification of several levels of paradigms for analysing land use evolution. It distinguishes various degrees of abstraction ranging from description to understanding of phenomena, with modelling, hypotheses validation, forecasting and explanation as intermediate levels. Conceptual diagrams are developed. It relates scientific approaches and levels of knowledge in order to better focus on research objectives, choose appropriate analytical procedures and assess the potential for generalizing results with due consideration of closely related domains of knowledge. An example of spatial diffusion model illustrates how this framework could enhance linkage with classical theoretical models. Its strengths and weaknesses are discussed, with linkage to the typology and appropriateness for urban and regional planning.
Abstract In this paper, the competition between, on the one hand, regional and super-regional sho... more Abstract In this paper, the competition between, on the one hand, regional and super-regional shopping centers and, on the other hand, "category killers" and "big boxes" is analyzed using discrete choice modeling (logistic regression). An extensive Origin-Destination phone survey in the Quebec Metropolitan Area in 2001 provides detailed information on both households' socioeconomic and demographic profiles and daily trip patterns, making it is possible to identify and model customers' shopping destination choices. The findings suggest that several trip and household attributes impact customers' choice for either big boxes or traditional shopping centers: trip purpose, transportation mode and car ownership, day of the week, departure time and place as well as trip length and, finally, respondent's gender, age and type of household. (ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.) This paper looks at the competition between traditional shopping centers and newly emerging shopping facilities which, since the early 1990s, have spread all over North America. Commonly referred to as "big boxes" and "category killers" (Grantz and Mintz, 1998), often grouped into "power centers,"1 the latter are threatening the long established equilibrium prevailing in the retail sector in much the same way as downtown commercial streets were outmatched by suburban regional and superregional shopping centers in the late 1950s, early 1960s. Behind this phenomenon lies the changing structure of consumers' professional, household and mobility profiles which, in turn, affects their shopping patterns. The originality of this study rests on the availability of a transportation-oriented methodology currently used for planning purposes in Canadian metropolitan areas, the Origin-Destination (O-D) survey. In contrast with typical marketing surveys that emphasize consumption patterns, O-D surveys focus on daily trip patterns and provide unique and detailed information on trip purpose, mode and timing, as well as on individual and household characteristics. Moreover, the sample size used for O-D surveys, which ranges from 5% to 10% of regional populations, makes it possible to breakdown shopping trip patterns to an extent that ordinary surveys cannot match. Context and Problematics of the Study Since the middle of twentieth century, the retail trade sector has experienced a growing degree of concentration resulting in fewer and larger stores. The design of retail structure in urban areas has changed significantly, expanding from individual stores located on traditional commercial streets to very large and car-oriented shopping centers and, later on, isolated mega-stores, or big boxes. According to authors, several internal and external factors affecting retail facilities may be brought forward as possible explanations for this concentration. Many of the changes have been linked to metropolitan growth patterns, changes in urban transportation systems including the rising dominance of the automobile, as well as evolving retail marketing techniques (Beyard and O'Mara, 1999). Similarly, changing shopping behavior choices of households would affect the shaping of the retail sector. These are expressed through household mobility, as well as through their purchasing power and preferences for retail trade forms that offer a large diversity of products and services (Baker, 2000; and Gobillon, Selod and Zenou, 2003). The expansion of shopping centers and, more recently of big box outlets and power centers in North American and West European urban areas is a major feature of the retail trade sector development. After the first shopping malls appeared in the 1950s, enclosed, regional and super-regional malls experienced their largest growth during the 1970s and 1980s. Their success stemmed from putting together a large number of diversified stores. By addressing the strong competition in the retail trade sector, such a marketing strategy, referred to as retail mix, significantly reduced the risk of mall operators while also leading to a growing homogeneity among shopping centers. …
This paper presents a modelling and simulation procedure to evaluate optimal routes (minimising i... more This paper presents a modelling and simulation procedure to evaluate optimal routes (minimising impedance costs) and to compute travel times for each individual trip of an OD survey database. Canadian postal codes provide accurate locations within street blocks for each trip beginning and end point. Using TransCAD GIS software, the procedure finds the best routes through a topological road network. Each road (link in the network) is characterised by a maximal speed related to the functional class of the road, to its location in rural or urban areas, and to the distance from the nearest school. Turn and transfer penalties govern movements at the intersections. Moreover, the procedure calculates the number of persons travelling on every road (network link) to estimate a traffic map which is used to detect topological errors in the network and to estimate traffic congestion. Simulation results are totally dis-aggregated, making them suitable to model the mobility behaviour of individua...
As in most western countries, feminisation has probably been the most significant change occurrin... more As in most western countries, feminisation has probably been the most significant change occurring in the Quebec labour market in the last twenty years. The rise of female-headed single-parent families contributes to the resulting need for women to be “breadwinners”. However, there still is a strong wage differential between men and women, and part of it may be due to the spatial conditions that affect access to employment. In this paper, we examine the relations between spatial mobility of women, job accessibility and occupational mobility over the last twenty years in the Quebec urban region. Results show that better job accessibility, longer female work commutes and better car access had a significant effect on the female employment rate and on the upward occupational mobility of women between 1977 and 1996.
When choosing their home, households are willing to maximize their satisfaction and utility while... more When choosing their home, households are willing to maximize their satisfaction and utility while trying to avoid noise and inconvenience. Along with economic constraints, this decision process involves several types of criteria, including preferences and perception of environment in the neighbourhood. Previous research in spatial economy has addressed the impact of vegetation and environment quality on single-family house values, using hedonic price models. However, assessing the economic valuation of trees is not sufficient to fully understand the choice-setting mechanisms behind the conversion of environmental preferences into residential location choices. New modelling approaches integrating behaviour, attitudes, tradeoffs and motivations could certainly improve our understanding of people’s valuation of nature. This paper develops such a behavioural model considering a housing market which was firstly analysed using the hedonic modelling approach. Logistic regression was then u...
This paper focuses on a particular form of high mobility, namely the long journeys to work genera... more This paper focuses on a particular form of high mobility, namely the long journeys to work generated by cross-border job market. More precisely, it studies the impact of such behaviors on well-being by analyzing the relationships between mode choice, transport-related attitudes, socio-demographic and spatial attributes, and the level of satisfaction in the context of cross-border long commutes to Luxembourg. The statistical modelling is rooted to a conceptual framework that emphasizes the mutual dependencies between attitudes, mode choice, and satisfaction. Based on a survey among long-distance commuters (N = 3093) held in 2010 and 2011, two ordered logistic regressions, one of which including latent constructs of transport-related attitudes derived from a structural equation modelling, are developed to explain satisfaction in commuting. Main findings are: (1) Travel-related attitudes influence satisfaction with travel more than socio-demographic attributes; (2) public transport use...
Centrographic measures of spatial dispersion, such as the standard distance, provide a numerical ... more Centrographic measures of spatial dispersion, such as the standard distance, provide a numerical value to summarize the radial scattering of a set of points around their centre of gravity or centroid. This paper develops a procedure to test for the statistical significance of differences in dispersion between two sets of phenomena intertwined in space. The significance test is implemented using a resampling randomization procedure based on the pooled locations from both sets to estimate the sampling distribution of their differences. Repeated thousands of times, that yields empirical frequency thresholds of the sampling distributions to assess the statistical significance of the observed differences. Case studies based on residential locations of lone-parent families and retired couples in the Quebec City Metropolitan Area illustrate the procedure. This paper shows how randomization procedures can be used to adapt classical tests to assess the statistical significance of differences between indices of spatial dispersion. Les mesures centrographiques de dispersion spatiale, telles que la distance-type, fournissent une valeur numérique pour synthétiser la diffusion radiale d’un ensemble de points autour de leur centre de gravité ou barycentre. Cet article développe une procédure pour tester la signification statistique des différences de dispersion entre deux ensembles de phénomènes qui s’entrecroisent dans l’espace. Le test de signification utilise un procédé de rééchantillonnage par randomisation qui combine les localisations des deux ensembles pour estimer les distributions d’échantillonnage des différences. En répétant des milliers de fois, on obtient des seuils empiriques de fréquence dans les distributions d’échantillonnage afin d’établir la signification statistique des différences observées. Des études de cas fondées sur la localisation résidentielle des familles monoparentales et des couples retraités de la région métropolitaine de Québec illustrent la procédure. L’article montre comment des procédés de randomisation permettent d’adapter des tests classiques pour évaluer la signification statistique des différences entre les indices de dispersion spatiale.
Abstract: Progress in integrating GIS, multiple criteria decision-making methods and planning sup... more Abstract: Progress in integrating GIS, multiple criteria decision-making methods and planning support systems are promising and could help reduce information gap and avoid potential landuse disputes. However, land planning has gradually moved into the public arena where various lobby groups promote their points of view. Fair and legitimate environmental risk management involves a balanced proportioning between considerations, on the one hand, of the physical impact on natural ecosystems and, on the other, psycho-social effects which affect the perception of, as well as any reaction to, disturbances in the surroundings. This paper develops a methodology for assessing perceived risks using a procedure which is compatible with indicators of the state of the physical environment. It uses GIS technology to detect conflictprone areas. In order to assess the relative importance of perceptual factors, this text combines a public opinion poll conducted among a sampling of the Portneuf population with a GIS presenting the distribution of features and activities across the region. Statistical analysis synthesised the information and made it possible to build behavioural models. It was carried out in three stages: contingency tests, spatial autocorrelation assessment, and discriminant analysis of respondents ’ opinions. Models yield typical profiles distinguishing the factors
The expansion of large shopping centres and, more recently, of ibig boxi outlets and ipower centr... more The expansion of large shopping centres and, more recently, of ibig boxi outlets and ipower centresi in North-American and West European urban areas is a major feature of the retail trade sector development. While several internal and external factors affecting retail facilities design and location may be brought forward as possible explanations for this concentration, customersi behaviour in terms of shopping destination choices emerges as one of the main determinants of retail competition. In this paper, the competition between, on the one hand, regional and superregional shopping centres and, on the other hand, icategory killersi and ibig boxesi is analyzed using discrete choice modelling (logistic regression). Thanks to an extensive Origin-Destination phone survey carried out in the Quebec Metropolitan Area in 2001 for transportation planning purposes and providing detailed information on both householdsi socioeconomic and demographic profiles and daily trip patterns, it is possible to identify and model customersi shopping choices with respect to the type of retail facilities they favour. Findings suggest that several household and trip attributes do impact upon customersi choice for either big boxes or traditional shopping centres. These are: customeris gender and age, trip purpose, car ownership, day of the week, departure time and place, transportation mode, type of household and trip length.
In most developed countries, the acceleration of coastal urbanization during the second half of t... more In most developed countries, the acceleration of coastal urbanization during the second half of the twentieth century has gradually resulted in a concentration of residential housing and associated infrastructure and facilities along a narrow coastal strip, along with various environmental, functional and social impacts. This has led certain countries, such as France, to adopt protection legislation with respect to their coastlines. However, while numerous studies describe and analyse the consequences of urbanization on the coastal environment, few of them examine the influence of the coast on urbanization. This paper focuses on the residential development process, considering the coastline as both a pull factor on account of its amenities, and as a constraint due to the legislation put in place to protect it. Our study aims to build a database describing the factors that influence the probability of housing development on vacant land and to analyse the spatiotemporal evolution through a logistic regression modelling approach. While controlling the factors usually mentioned in the scientific literature on urban sprawl and suburbanization, this method is also able to isolate the effects of coastal attractiveness, taking laws and bylaws regulating urbanization in such areas into consideration. It shows in particular that, since the early 2000s, the gradual implementation of a land planning framework specific to the coastal zone has led to improved regulation of housing development in the study area. Throughout the country, the French Coastal Law limited available land for housing development, particularly in coastal areas, by enforcing building restrictions in accordance with conservation principles. The paper concludes with potential improvements to our models, e.g. the integration of local economic factors, such as land costs or changes in taxation, all of which influence housing choices and could potentially regulate suburbanization.
Land use and land cover evolution was contributing to the emergence of geographical information s... more Land use and land cover evolution was contributing to the emergence of geographical information systems. Today, most applications benefit from sophisticated technologies for gathering and analysing data, which is of great value for urban and regional planning. This paper presents a typology and conceptual frameworks for the specification of several levels of paradigms for analysing land use evolution. It distinguishes various degrees of abstraction ranging from description to understanding of phenomena, with modelling, hypotheses validation, forecasting and explanation as intermediate levels. Conceptual diagrams are developed. It relates scientific approaches and levels of knowledge in order to better focus on research objectives, choose appropriate analytical procedures and assess the potential for generalizing results with due consideration of closely related domains of knowledge. An example of spatial diffusion model illustrates how this framework could enhance linkage with classical theoretical models. Its strengths and weaknesses are discussed, with linkage to the typology and appropriateness for urban and regional planning.
Abstract In this paper, the competition between, on the one hand, regional and super-regional sho... more Abstract In this paper, the competition between, on the one hand, regional and super-regional shopping centers and, on the other hand, "category killers" and "big boxes" is analyzed using discrete choice modeling (logistic regression). An extensive Origin-Destination phone survey in the Quebec Metropolitan Area in 2001 provides detailed information on both households' socioeconomic and demographic profiles and daily trip patterns, making it is possible to identify and model customers' shopping destination choices. The findings suggest that several trip and household attributes impact customers' choice for either big boxes or traditional shopping centers: trip purpose, transportation mode and car ownership, day of the week, departure time and place as well as trip length and, finally, respondent's gender, age and type of household. (ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.) This paper looks at the competition between traditional shopping centers and newly emerging shopping facilities which, since the early 1990s, have spread all over North America. Commonly referred to as "big boxes" and "category killers" (Grantz and Mintz, 1998), often grouped into "power centers,"1 the latter are threatening the long established equilibrium prevailing in the retail sector in much the same way as downtown commercial streets were outmatched by suburban regional and superregional shopping centers in the late 1950s, early 1960s. Behind this phenomenon lies the changing structure of consumers' professional, household and mobility profiles which, in turn, affects their shopping patterns. The originality of this study rests on the availability of a transportation-oriented methodology currently used for planning purposes in Canadian metropolitan areas, the Origin-Destination (O-D) survey. In contrast with typical marketing surveys that emphasize consumption patterns, O-D surveys focus on daily trip patterns and provide unique and detailed information on trip purpose, mode and timing, as well as on individual and household characteristics. Moreover, the sample size used for O-D surveys, which ranges from 5% to 10% of regional populations, makes it possible to breakdown shopping trip patterns to an extent that ordinary surveys cannot match. Context and Problematics of the Study Since the middle of twentieth century, the retail trade sector has experienced a growing degree of concentration resulting in fewer and larger stores. The design of retail structure in urban areas has changed significantly, expanding from individual stores located on traditional commercial streets to very large and car-oriented shopping centers and, later on, isolated mega-stores, or big boxes. According to authors, several internal and external factors affecting retail facilities may be brought forward as possible explanations for this concentration. Many of the changes have been linked to metropolitan growth patterns, changes in urban transportation systems including the rising dominance of the automobile, as well as evolving retail marketing techniques (Beyard and O'Mara, 1999). Similarly, changing shopping behavior choices of households would affect the shaping of the retail sector. These are expressed through household mobility, as well as through their purchasing power and preferences for retail trade forms that offer a large diversity of products and services (Baker, 2000; and Gobillon, Selod and Zenou, 2003). The expansion of shopping centers and, more recently of big box outlets and power centers in North American and West European urban areas is a major feature of the retail trade sector development. After the first shopping malls appeared in the 1950s, enclosed, regional and super-regional malls experienced their largest growth during the 1970s and 1980s. Their success stemmed from putting together a large number of diversified stores. By addressing the strong competition in the retail trade sector, such a marketing strategy, referred to as retail mix, significantly reduced the risk of mall operators while also leading to a growing homogeneity among shopping centers. …
This paper presents a modelling and simulation procedure to evaluate optimal routes (minimising i... more This paper presents a modelling and simulation procedure to evaluate optimal routes (minimising impedance costs) and to compute travel times for each individual trip of an OD survey database. Canadian postal codes provide accurate locations within street blocks for each trip beginning and end point. Using TransCAD GIS software, the procedure finds the best routes through a topological road network. Each road (link in the network) is characterised by a maximal speed related to the functional class of the road, to its location in rural or urban areas, and to the distance from the nearest school. Turn and transfer penalties govern movements at the intersections. Moreover, the procedure calculates the number of persons travelling on every road (network link) to estimate a traffic map which is used to detect topological errors in the network and to estimate traffic congestion. Simulation results are totally dis-aggregated, making them suitable to model the mobility behaviour of individua...
As in most western countries, feminisation has probably been the most significant change occurrin... more As in most western countries, feminisation has probably been the most significant change occurring in the Quebec labour market in the last twenty years. The rise of female-headed single-parent families contributes to the resulting need for women to be “breadwinners”. However, there still is a strong wage differential between men and women, and part of it may be due to the spatial conditions that affect access to employment. In this paper, we examine the relations between spatial mobility of women, job accessibility and occupational mobility over the last twenty years in the Quebec urban region. Results show that better job accessibility, longer female work commutes and better car access had a significant effect on the female employment rate and on the upward occupational mobility of women between 1977 and 1996.
When choosing their home, households are willing to maximize their satisfaction and utility while... more When choosing their home, households are willing to maximize their satisfaction and utility while trying to avoid noise and inconvenience. Along with economic constraints, this decision process involves several types of criteria, including preferences and perception of environment in the neighbourhood. Previous research in spatial economy has addressed the impact of vegetation and environment quality on single-family house values, using hedonic price models. However, assessing the economic valuation of trees is not sufficient to fully understand the choice-setting mechanisms behind the conversion of environmental preferences into residential location choices. New modelling approaches integrating behaviour, attitudes, tradeoffs and motivations could certainly improve our understanding of people’s valuation of nature. This paper develops such a behavioural model considering a housing market which was firstly analysed using the hedonic modelling approach. Logistic regression was then u...
This paper focuses on a particular form of high mobility, namely the long journeys to work genera... more This paper focuses on a particular form of high mobility, namely the long journeys to work generated by cross-border job market. More precisely, it studies the impact of such behaviors on well-being by analyzing the relationships between mode choice, transport-related attitudes, socio-demographic and spatial attributes, and the level of satisfaction in the context of cross-border long commutes to Luxembourg. The statistical modelling is rooted to a conceptual framework that emphasizes the mutual dependencies between attitudes, mode choice, and satisfaction. Based on a survey among long-distance commuters (N = 3093) held in 2010 and 2011, two ordered logistic regressions, one of which including latent constructs of transport-related attitudes derived from a structural equation modelling, are developed to explain satisfaction in commuting. Main findings are: (1) Travel-related attitudes influence satisfaction with travel more than socio-demographic attributes; (2) public transport use...
Centrographic measures of spatial dispersion, such as the standard distance, provide a numerical ... more Centrographic measures of spatial dispersion, such as the standard distance, provide a numerical value to summarize the radial scattering of a set of points around their centre of gravity or centroid. This paper develops a procedure to test for the statistical significance of differences in dispersion between two sets of phenomena intertwined in space. The significance test is implemented using a resampling randomization procedure based on the pooled locations from both sets to estimate the sampling distribution of their differences. Repeated thousands of times, that yields empirical frequency thresholds of the sampling distributions to assess the statistical significance of the observed differences. Case studies based on residential locations of lone-parent families and retired couples in the Quebec City Metropolitan Area illustrate the procedure. This paper shows how randomization procedures can be used to adapt classical tests to assess the statistical significance of differences between indices of spatial dispersion. Les mesures centrographiques de dispersion spatiale, telles que la distance-type, fournissent une valeur numérique pour synthétiser la diffusion radiale d’un ensemble de points autour de leur centre de gravité ou barycentre. Cet article développe une procédure pour tester la signification statistique des différences de dispersion entre deux ensembles de phénomènes qui s’entrecroisent dans l’espace. Le test de signification utilise un procédé de rééchantillonnage par randomisation qui combine les localisations des deux ensembles pour estimer les distributions d’échantillonnage des différences. En répétant des milliers de fois, on obtient des seuils empiriques de fréquence dans les distributions d’échantillonnage afin d’établir la signification statistique des différences observées. Des études de cas fondées sur la localisation résidentielle des familles monoparentales et des couples retraités de la région métropolitaine de Québec illustrent la procédure. L’article montre comment des procédés de randomisation permettent d’adapter des tests classiques pour évaluer la signification statistique des différences entre les indices de dispersion spatiale.
Abstract: Progress in integrating GIS, multiple criteria decision-making methods and planning sup... more Abstract: Progress in integrating GIS, multiple criteria decision-making methods and planning support systems are promising and could help reduce information gap and avoid potential landuse disputes. However, land planning has gradually moved into the public arena where various lobby groups promote their points of view. Fair and legitimate environmental risk management involves a balanced proportioning between considerations, on the one hand, of the physical impact on natural ecosystems and, on the other, psycho-social effects which affect the perception of, as well as any reaction to, disturbances in the surroundings. This paper develops a methodology for assessing perceived risks using a procedure which is compatible with indicators of the state of the physical environment. It uses GIS technology to detect conflictprone areas. In order to assess the relative importance of perceptual factors, this text combines a public opinion poll conducted among a sampling of the Portneuf population with a GIS presenting the distribution of features and activities across the region. Statistical analysis synthesised the information and made it possible to build behavioural models. It was carried out in three stages: contingency tests, spatial autocorrelation assessment, and discriminant analysis of respondents ’ opinions. Models yield typical profiles distinguishing the factors
The expansion of large shopping centres and, more recently, of ibig boxi outlets and ipower centr... more The expansion of large shopping centres and, more recently, of ibig boxi outlets and ipower centresi in North-American and West European urban areas is a major feature of the retail trade sector development. While several internal and external factors affecting retail facilities design and location may be brought forward as possible explanations for this concentration, customersi behaviour in terms of shopping destination choices emerges as one of the main determinants of retail competition. In this paper, the competition between, on the one hand, regional and superregional shopping centres and, on the other hand, icategory killersi and ibig boxesi is analyzed using discrete choice modelling (logistic regression). Thanks to an extensive Origin-Destination phone survey carried out in the Quebec Metropolitan Area in 2001 for transportation planning purposes and providing detailed information on both householdsi socioeconomic and demographic profiles and daily trip patterns, it is possible to identify and model customersi shopping choices with respect to the type of retail facilities they favour. Findings suggest that several household and trip attributes do impact upon customersi choice for either big boxes or traditional shopping centres. These are: customeris gender and age, trip purpose, car ownership, day of the week, departure time and place, transportation mode, type of household and trip length.
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Papers by Marius Theriault