U radu se definira iterativni postupak kojim je moguce odrediti vrstu i položaj netipicnih vrijed... more U radu se definira iterativni postupak kojim je moguce odrediti vrstu i položaj netipicnih vrijednosti u vremenskom nizu. Analiziraju se dvije osnovne vrste netipicnih vrijednosti: aditivna (AO) i inovacijska (IO). Pokazuje se da se njihovom linearnom kombinacijom mogu veoma dobro aproksimirati modeli koji u sebi ukljucuju utjecaj proizvoljnih egzogenih intervencija. Osim toga, modeli koji se definiraju na osnovi AO i IO netipicnih vrijednosti, relativno su jednostavni, sto rezultira i jednostavnoscu izraza predloženih modela i kao takvi oni predstavljaju bazicne modele za daljnju statisticko ekonometrijsku analizu. Nakon definiranja osnovnih vrsta netipicnih vrijednosti dan je kriterij najvece vjerodostojnosti za otkrivanje pozicije i vrste netipicnih vrijednosti. Kriterij se provodi u koracima dok se ne lociraju i procjene sve netipicne vrijednosti u podacima. Primjenom iterativnog postupka u radu se analizira vremenska serija industrijske proizvodnje Republike Hrvatske u kojoj se pronalaze cetiri inovacijske (rujan 1991., kolovoz 1991., srpanj 1992. i sijecanj 1991) i jedna aditivna (prosinac 1990.) netipicna vrijednost. Predefiniranjem modela, koji ukljucuje utjecaj svih detektiranih netipicnih vrijednosti, dobiva se model s boljim statistickim karakteristikama.
The impact of exchange rate fluctuatins on merchandise volume has been a major issue for policyma... more The impact of exchange rate fluctuatins on merchandise volume has been a major issue for policymarkers and professional economists since the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system. Nowadays economists agree that exchange rates of major currencies have a high degree of volatility and uncertainty. However, they do not agree on the economic consequences of exchange rate volatility. The overall empirical evidence is ambiguous, depicting negative, positive, or an inconclusive relationship between exchange rate volatility and volume of trade. The results are sensitive to the choices of the sample period, model specification, volatility measures and countries. We analysed the long-run and the short-run relationships between merchandise export volume and its determinants namely ; foreign income, real exchange rate and volatility of real exchange rate using techniques of cointegration and error correction. It showed that the exchange rate volatility has no effect on the volume of trade in the long run.
Zbornik radova. Autori: Arnerić, Josip; Erjavec, Nataša. ... Izvornik: Proceedings of the 5th Int... more Zbornik radova. Autori: Arnerić, Josip; Erjavec, Nataša. ... Izvornik: Proceedings of the 5th International Conference An Enterprise Odyssey : From Crisis to Prosperity - Challenges for Government and Business / Galetić, L., Spremić, M., Ivanov, M. (ur.). ...
The article studies the relationship between economic complexity and income inequality across EU ... more The article studies the relationship between economic complexity and income inequality across EU countries from 1995 to 2020. The analysed period characterises high globalisation in which “new” EU countries experienced a high transformation of their productive structure. Production structure largely determines income distribution and, thus, income inequality. We employed panel data methodology to assess the relationship between economic complexity and income inequality. To control for economic activity and education, GDP per capita and average years of secondary schooling are also included in the analysis. Expectedly, our findings point to the correlation between economic complexity and income inequality in EU countries. However, the results also indicate an opposite effect between the “old” EU member states and a group of “new” EU member states. This finding suggests that “new” EU members needed more economic complexity in the observed period to reduce income inequality.
The goal of this paper is to investigate relationships between macroeconomic variables and stock ... more The goal of this paper is to investigate relationships between macroeconomic variables and stock market returns in Croatia. The impact of macroeconomic variables on Croatian stock market is analysed through the impact of domestic and international macroeconomic variables in the short and the long run. The long run relationship is based on the present value model (PVM) which links stock prices and the future discount rate of expected cash flows. PVM should tell us if stock markets are leading indicators of economic activity. The USA is selected as an international factor of global influence and Germany is selected as an international factor of local (European) influence. Germany is one of Croatia’ s main trading partners, too. Using cointegration and causality techniques it is proved that domestic economic activity, measured through industrial production, has significant influence on Croatian stock market and that the international economic activity does not have a significant influe...
Udžbenik obrađuje najcesce koristene metode, algoritme i programe za analizu kvantitativnih i kva... more Udžbenik obrađuje najcesce koristene metode, algoritme i programe za analizu kvantitativnih i kvalitativnih promjena. Osmisljen je kao monografija koja opisuje paket programskih proizvoda. U njoj je analizirano ukupno 20 MACRO programa, napisanih u verziji 4.04 GENSTAT jezika i to 9 za analizu kvantitativnih i 11 za analizu kvalitativnih promjena. Programi su potpuno ulazno neovisni i svaki od njih, ili vise njih zajedno, mogu biti pozvani odgovarajucim REFERENCE programom, koji prenosi ulazne podatke i potreban broj ulaznih parametara. Nadalje, za svaki je macro program napisan i algoritam koji je tim programom implementiran. Algoritmu prethodi uvodni tekst u kome se na neformalan nacin objasnjena sustina metode i grupa problema koji se s tom metodom mogu rijesiti. Metode i algoritmi koji su implementirani u programske proizvode izabrani su u skladu s dva kriterija. Prvi je bio jednostavnost, a time i dostupnost korisnicima koji imaju osrednju metodolosku naobrazbu. Drugi kriterij ...
U radu se definira iterativni postupak kojim je moguce odrediti vrstu i položaj netipicnih vrijed... more U radu se definira iterativni postupak kojim je moguce odrediti vrstu i položaj netipicnih vrijednosti u vremenskom nizu. Analiziraju se dvije osnovne vrste netipicnih vrijednosti: aditivna (AO) i inovacijska (IO). Pokazuje se da se njihovom linearnom kombinacijom mogu veoma dobro aproksimirati modeli koji u sebi ukljucuju utjecaj proizvoljnih egzogenih intervencija. Osim toga, modeli koji se definiraju na osnovi AO i IO netipicnih vrijednosti, relativno su jednostavni, sto rezultira i jednostavnoscu izraza predloženih modela i kao takvi oni predstavljaju bazicne modele za daljnju statisticko ekonometrijsku analizu. Nakon definiranja osnovnih vrsta netipicnih vrijednosti dan je kriterij najvece vjerodostojnosti za otkrivanje pozicije i vrste netipicnih vrijednosti. Kriterij se provodi u koracima dok se ne lociraju i procjene sve netipicne vrijednosti u podacima. Primjenom iterativnog postupka u radu se analizira vremenska serija industrijske proizvodnje Republike Hrvatske u kojoj se pronalaze cetiri inovacijske (rujan 1991., kolovoz 1991., srpanj 1992. i sijecanj 1991) i jedna aditivna (prosinac 1990.) netipicna vrijednost. Predefiniranjem modela, koji ukljucuje utjecaj svih detektiranih netipicnih vrijednosti, dobiva se model s boljim statistickim karakteristikama.
The impact of exchange rate fluctuatins on merchandise volume has been a major issue for policyma... more The impact of exchange rate fluctuatins on merchandise volume has been a major issue for policymarkers and professional economists since the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system. Nowadays economists agree that exchange rates of major currencies have a high degree of volatility and uncertainty. However, they do not agree on the economic consequences of exchange rate volatility. The overall empirical evidence is ambiguous, depicting negative, positive, or an inconclusive relationship between exchange rate volatility and volume of trade. The results are sensitive to the choices of the sample period, model specification, volatility measures and countries. We analysed the long-run and the short-run relationships between merchandise export volume and its determinants namely ; foreign income, real exchange rate and volatility of real exchange rate using techniques of cointegration and error correction. It showed that the exchange rate volatility has no effect on the volume of trade in the long run.
Zbornik radova. Autori: Arnerić, Josip; Erjavec, Nataša. ... Izvornik: Proceedings of the 5th Int... more Zbornik radova. Autori: Arnerić, Josip; Erjavec, Nataša. ... Izvornik: Proceedings of the 5th International Conference An Enterprise Odyssey : From Crisis to Prosperity - Challenges for Government and Business / Galetić, L., Spremić, M., Ivanov, M. (ur.). ...
The article studies the relationship between economic complexity and income inequality across EU ... more The article studies the relationship between economic complexity and income inequality across EU countries from 1995 to 2020. The analysed period characterises high globalisation in which “new” EU countries experienced a high transformation of their productive structure. Production structure largely determines income distribution and, thus, income inequality. We employed panel data methodology to assess the relationship between economic complexity and income inequality. To control for economic activity and education, GDP per capita and average years of secondary schooling are also included in the analysis. Expectedly, our findings point to the correlation between economic complexity and income inequality in EU countries. However, the results also indicate an opposite effect between the “old” EU member states and a group of “new” EU member states. This finding suggests that “new” EU members needed more economic complexity in the observed period to reduce income inequality.
The goal of this paper is to investigate relationships between macroeconomic variables and stock ... more The goal of this paper is to investigate relationships between macroeconomic variables and stock market returns in Croatia. The impact of macroeconomic variables on Croatian stock market is analysed through the impact of domestic and international macroeconomic variables in the short and the long run. The long run relationship is based on the present value model (PVM) which links stock prices and the future discount rate of expected cash flows. PVM should tell us if stock markets are leading indicators of economic activity. The USA is selected as an international factor of global influence and Germany is selected as an international factor of local (European) influence. Germany is one of Croatia’ s main trading partners, too. Using cointegration and causality techniques it is proved that domestic economic activity, measured through industrial production, has significant influence on Croatian stock market and that the international economic activity does not have a significant influe...
Udžbenik obrađuje najcesce koristene metode, algoritme i programe za analizu kvantitativnih i kva... more Udžbenik obrađuje najcesce koristene metode, algoritme i programe za analizu kvantitativnih i kvalitativnih promjena. Osmisljen je kao monografija koja opisuje paket programskih proizvoda. U njoj je analizirano ukupno 20 MACRO programa, napisanih u verziji 4.04 GENSTAT jezika i to 9 za analizu kvantitativnih i 11 za analizu kvalitativnih promjena. Programi su potpuno ulazno neovisni i svaki od njih, ili vise njih zajedno, mogu biti pozvani odgovarajucim REFERENCE programom, koji prenosi ulazne podatke i potreban broj ulaznih parametara. Nadalje, za svaki je macro program napisan i algoritam koji je tim programom implementiran. Algoritmu prethodi uvodni tekst u kome se na neformalan nacin objasnjena sustina metode i grupa problema koji se s tom metodom mogu rijesiti. Metode i algoritmi koji su implementirani u programske proizvode izabrani su u skladu s dva kriterija. Prvi je bio jednostavnost, a time i dostupnost korisnicima koji imaju osrednju metodolosku naobrazbu. Drugi kriterij ...
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