This study finds the relationship between increases in precipitable water vapor (PWV), and intens... more This study finds the relationship between increases in precipitable water vapor (PWV), and intense rainfall events in four different climatological regions of South America’s equatorial northwest: the coast, Andes valley, high mountains, and Amazon. First, the PWV was derived from tropospheric zenith delay measured by Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) instrumentation located near meteorological stations within the regions of interest using hourly data from the year 2014. A harmonic analysis approach through continuous wavelet cross-spectrum and coherence, as well as discrete wavelets, was used to determine a measure of the lags found between PWV and specific heavy rain events and then compared with satellite IR images and meteorological anomalies. The link between PWV peaks and rainfall was the most evident on the coast, and less discernible in the other stations possibly due to local dynamic factors. The results showed a lag of 11 h between the preceding PWV increase and an...
Extreme weather conditions, including intense heat stress due to higher temperatures, could trigg... more Extreme weather conditions, including intense heat stress due to higher temperatures, could trigger an increase in mortality risk. One way to evaluate the increase in mortality risk due to higher temperatures is the high risk warming (HRW) index, which evaluates the difference between the future and base period of a given percentile of daily maximum temperature (Tmax). Another is to calculate the future increase in the number of days over the temperature of such percentile, named high risk days (HRD) index. Previous studies point to the 84th percentile as the optimum temperature. Thus, this study aims to evaluate HRW and HRD indexes in Ecuador from 2011 to 2070 over the three natural climate zones, e.g., Coast, Andes, and Amazon. This climate analysis is based on historical data from meteorological stations and projections from CSIRO-MK36, GISS-E2, and IPSL-CM5A-MR, CMIP5 global climate models with dynamical scale reduction through weather research forecasting (WRF). The representat...
La siguiente investigación, describe dos tipos de estudios acerca del clima y tiempo del Ecuador,... more La siguiente investigación, describe dos tipos de estudios acerca del clima y tiempo del Ecuador, implementando los modelos numéricos MM5 (Mesoescale Model versión 5) y WRF (Weather Research Forecasting Model), mostrando sus características principales e instalación para ajustarlo a las condiciones ecuatoriales. Los estudios que se realizan corresponden al pronóstico del tiempo del país, utilizando el modelo MM5 en variables como la temperatura, velocidad de viento y precipitaciones. El estudio de validación se lo hace sobre las precipitaciones de la ciudad de Quito a través de tablas de contingencia, estudiando los meses de agosto a octubre. Se logra así un POD (Probability of Detection) del 93,5% y un FAR (False Alarm Ratio) del 14%, evidenciando la temporada inusualmente seca que se registró en esas fechas. Asimismo se presenta la primera parte del estudio de la reconstrucción de la atmósfera ecuatorial, utilizando el modelo WRF, mostrando el estudio de los perfiles verticales de...
El objetivo de la presente investigación es establecer el impacto que ha tenido el cambio climáti... more El objetivo de la presente investigación es establecer el impacto que ha tenido el cambio climático y la variabilidad climática sobre el Distrito Metropolitano de Quito (DMQ) y sus alrededores en los últimos años. De esta manera, se han realizado dos tipos de análisis de tendencias sobre 30 años de datos proporcionados por el INAMHI (Instituto Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología): el primero busca evidenciar cambios graduales, a través del análisis de datos mensuales de temperaturas máximas, mínimas, precipitación, heliofanía, humedad relativa y nubosidad; utilizando una regresión lineal por el método de mínimos cuadrados más una prueba F para determinar su significancia estadística. El segundo estudio se realizó con el objetivo de analizar el comportamiento de los eventos extremos, sobre datos diarios en las variables de temperaturas máximas, mínimas y de precipitación, a través del paquete computacional RClimDex para el cálculo de índices de cambio climático recomendados por el ...
Esta investigación analiza eventos extremos a nivel diario de temperaturas mínimas, máximas y llu... more Esta investigación analiza eventos extremos a nivel diario de temperaturas mínimas, máximas y lluvias en el Distrito Metropolitano de Quito utilizando datos con más de 30 años de la red meteorológica del INAMHI (Instituto Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología de Ecuador), y utilizando el programa R-ClimDex. Se presentan escenarios el año 2032 combinando resultados estadísticos de eventos extremos con el forzamiento físico de los escenarios A2 y B2 del modelo de cambio climático PRECIS A2 y B2, y utilizando la teoría de valores extremos del programa extReme. Los resultados mostraron un incremento en los valores mensuales mínimos y máximos de temperatura tanto en magnitud y frecuencia; además de un aumento en la intensidad de lluvias extremas. Las proyecciones para 2032 mantienen este comportamiento, con resultados que deben ser tomados en cuenta por los tomadores de decisión y científicos debido al peligro que significan para el ecosistema de Quito.
The present research aims to determine the advantages and disadvantages of two climate change mod... more The present research aims to determine the advantages and disadvantages of two climate change models. The hydrostatic model PRECIS and the non-hydrostatic model TL959 were used to validate precipitation and extreme temperatures on Ecuador’s weather. The main hypothesis establishes that if the climate change model adequately reconstruct the climate through each of their initial climatology conditions, then their projections into the future will be more accurate. We divided the surface of Ecuador in a 11x11 matrix allowing a regional study and determined statistical estimators for each cell every month for both the weather and the models. The differences between the model and the climatology increase in highlands regions, suggesting an improvement of the physical parametrization in Andes regions.
The present study aims to determine the effects of climate change in the weather variability in t... more The present study aims to determine the effects of climate change in the weather variability in the Metropolitan District of Quito and its surroundings in the last 30 years. For this purpose, using data from the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (Instituto Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología - INAMHI), two statistical treatments were performed. First, a trend analysis of the maximum and minimum monthly temperatures, precipitation, heliophany, relative humidity and cloudiness using a standard least squares linear regression method and its associated F-test to determine the statistical significance of the model was done. The second treatment, looking for extreme events, we analyzed daily data in order to determine temperature and precipitation extremes using RclimDex package following the ECTCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices) recommendations. The results shows increases in trends and anomalous behavior that may be considered as a result of the e...
ABSTRACT The present report describes two types of studies about the climate and weather in Ecuad... more ABSTRACT The present report describes two types of studies about the climate and weather in Ecuador by implementing the following numerical models: Mesoescale Mesoescale Model version 5 (MM5) and Weather Research Forecasting Model (WRF) showing its principal characteristics and installation by adjusting to equatorial conditions. These studies correspond to the weather forecasting in Ecuador, using MM5 model in variables like the temperature, wind speed and precipitations. The validation study is done on precipitations forecast of Quito by means of contingency tables, studying the months of august to october, thereby obtaining a POD (Probability of Detection) of 93.5% and a FAR (False Alarm Ratio) of 14%, having demonstrated the unusually dry season that was registered at those dates. Also present the first part of the recon- struction of the equatorial atmosphere using WRF model, showing the study of the vertical profiles with wind speeds, in order to conclude this study will be necessary to examine the time series of at least 30 years. Preliminary results are obtained with a 17-kilometer zone of maximum winds, visualizing over this level a diminution of their intensity.
This research analyzes extreme events of minimum, maximum temperatures and rain in the Metropolit... more This research analyzes extreme events of minimum, maximum temperatures and rain in the Metropolitan District of Quito (DMQ) using data of 30 years from the meteorological network of INAMHI (Instituto Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología de Ecuador) using the R- ClimDex computer program. Also, is presented a projection to the year 2022 combining the statistical results of extreme events and physical forcing from PRECIS scenarios A2 and B2; using the extreme value theory from extReme computer program. The results showed an increase in extreme minimum and maximum temperature values in both, magnitude and frequency; and an increase in the intensity of heavy rainfall (over the 99th percentile). Projections showed an increase in this behavior, with results that should be taken into account by policy makers and scientist because of the danger they could mean for the population of Quito in infrastructure, health, agriculture and biodiversity
The self-organized criticality (SOC) is a recent proposed theoretical model for complex systems. ... more The self-organized criticality (SOC) is a recent proposed theoretical model for complex systems. Critical phenomena occur near phase transitions. According to this theory, when an ordered parameter increases as a power law, a tuning parameter crosses a critical value. When these parameters couple, the critical point becomes an attractor and the result is a SOC phenomenon. As a characteristic, their scale diverge. Although this concept has been applied in many different processes, ranging from geophysics to economy; in meteorology the physical process is still being considered as chaotic systems. In this case the behavior, marked by the quasi-equilibrium (Arakawa y Schubert, 1974) is far from being self-organized, with uncertainties that grow exponentially. In this context, the present review aims to propose an effective formalism to intense precipitation phenomena using SOC and continuous phase transitions theory. We suggested that the achievement of a critical value of water vapor ...
Solar radiation is an important natural factor for terrestrial life because it shapes the climate... more Solar radiation is an important natural factor for terrestrial life because it shapes the climate of the Earth and has a significant influence on the environment. A part of this is, the ultraviolet radiation (UV) which is comprised of the electromagnetic spectrum between 100 and 400 nm. A moderate exposure to UV radiation generated some cardiovascular benefits and vitamin D calcification (Marin, 2007). However, hazardous biological effects that can result considerable, for this, ultraviolet radiation is usually divided into three bands: UVC (100-280 nm) which is very dangerous to living things and is completely absorbed by the atmosphere, the radiation UVB (280-315 nm) that comes in a small proportion to the surface because it is absorbed about 90% and can generate ridges, skin cancer, cataracts and pterygium, and which comes full to the earth's surface is UVA (315-400 nm) which cause premature skin aging and darkening (Marin, 2007). All this effects of solar radiation are cumul...
This study finds the relationship between increases in precipitable water vapor (PWV), and intens... more This study finds the relationship between increases in precipitable water vapor (PWV), and intense rainfall events in four different climatological regions of South America’s equatorial northwest: the coast, Andes valley, high mountains, and Amazon. First, the PWV was derived from tropospheric zenith delay measured by Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) instrumentation located near meteorological stations within the regions of interest using hourly data from the year 2014. A harmonic analysis approach through continuous wavelet cross-spectrum and coherence, as well as discrete wavelets, was used to determine a measure of the lags found between PWV and specific heavy rain events and then compared with satellite IR images and meteorological anomalies. The link between PWV peaks and rainfall was the most evident on the coast, and less discernible in the other stations possibly due to local dynamic factors. The results showed a lag of 11 h between the preceding PWV increase and an...
Extreme weather conditions, including intense heat stress due to higher temperatures, could trigg... more Extreme weather conditions, including intense heat stress due to higher temperatures, could trigger an increase in mortality risk. One way to evaluate the increase in mortality risk due to higher temperatures is the high risk warming (HRW) index, which evaluates the difference between the future and base period of a given percentile of daily maximum temperature (Tmax). Another is to calculate the future increase in the number of days over the temperature of such percentile, named high risk days (HRD) index. Previous studies point to the 84th percentile as the optimum temperature. Thus, this study aims to evaluate HRW and HRD indexes in Ecuador from 2011 to 2070 over the three natural climate zones, e.g., Coast, Andes, and Amazon. This climate analysis is based on historical data from meteorological stations and projections from CSIRO-MK36, GISS-E2, and IPSL-CM5A-MR, CMIP5 global climate models with dynamical scale reduction through weather research forecasting (WRF). The representat...
La siguiente investigación, describe dos tipos de estudios acerca del clima y tiempo del Ecuador,... more La siguiente investigación, describe dos tipos de estudios acerca del clima y tiempo del Ecuador, implementando los modelos numéricos MM5 (Mesoescale Model versión 5) y WRF (Weather Research Forecasting Model), mostrando sus características principales e instalación para ajustarlo a las condiciones ecuatoriales. Los estudios que se realizan corresponden al pronóstico del tiempo del país, utilizando el modelo MM5 en variables como la temperatura, velocidad de viento y precipitaciones. El estudio de validación se lo hace sobre las precipitaciones de la ciudad de Quito a través de tablas de contingencia, estudiando los meses de agosto a octubre. Se logra así un POD (Probability of Detection) del 93,5% y un FAR (False Alarm Ratio) del 14%, evidenciando la temporada inusualmente seca que se registró en esas fechas. Asimismo se presenta la primera parte del estudio de la reconstrucción de la atmósfera ecuatorial, utilizando el modelo WRF, mostrando el estudio de los perfiles verticales de...
El objetivo de la presente investigación es establecer el impacto que ha tenido el cambio climáti... more El objetivo de la presente investigación es establecer el impacto que ha tenido el cambio climático y la variabilidad climática sobre el Distrito Metropolitano de Quito (DMQ) y sus alrededores en los últimos años. De esta manera, se han realizado dos tipos de análisis de tendencias sobre 30 años de datos proporcionados por el INAMHI (Instituto Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología): el primero busca evidenciar cambios graduales, a través del análisis de datos mensuales de temperaturas máximas, mínimas, precipitación, heliofanía, humedad relativa y nubosidad; utilizando una regresión lineal por el método de mínimos cuadrados más una prueba F para determinar su significancia estadística. El segundo estudio se realizó con el objetivo de analizar el comportamiento de los eventos extremos, sobre datos diarios en las variables de temperaturas máximas, mínimas y de precipitación, a través del paquete computacional RClimDex para el cálculo de índices de cambio climático recomendados por el ...
Esta investigación analiza eventos extremos a nivel diario de temperaturas mínimas, máximas y llu... more Esta investigación analiza eventos extremos a nivel diario de temperaturas mínimas, máximas y lluvias en el Distrito Metropolitano de Quito utilizando datos con más de 30 años de la red meteorológica del INAMHI (Instituto Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología de Ecuador), y utilizando el programa R-ClimDex. Se presentan escenarios el año 2032 combinando resultados estadísticos de eventos extremos con el forzamiento físico de los escenarios A2 y B2 del modelo de cambio climático PRECIS A2 y B2, y utilizando la teoría de valores extremos del programa extReme. Los resultados mostraron un incremento en los valores mensuales mínimos y máximos de temperatura tanto en magnitud y frecuencia; además de un aumento en la intensidad de lluvias extremas. Las proyecciones para 2032 mantienen este comportamiento, con resultados que deben ser tomados en cuenta por los tomadores de decisión y científicos debido al peligro que significan para el ecosistema de Quito.
The present research aims to determine the advantages and disadvantages of two climate change mod... more The present research aims to determine the advantages and disadvantages of two climate change models. The hydrostatic model PRECIS and the non-hydrostatic model TL959 were used to validate precipitation and extreme temperatures on Ecuador’s weather. The main hypothesis establishes that if the climate change model adequately reconstruct the climate through each of their initial climatology conditions, then their projections into the future will be more accurate. We divided the surface of Ecuador in a 11x11 matrix allowing a regional study and determined statistical estimators for each cell every month for both the weather and the models. The differences between the model and the climatology increase in highlands regions, suggesting an improvement of the physical parametrization in Andes regions.
The present study aims to determine the effects of climate change in the weather variability in t... more The present study aims to determine the effects of climate change in the weather variability in the Metropolitan District of Quito and its surroundings in the last 30 years. For this purpose, using data from the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (Instituto Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología - INAMHI), two statistical treatments were performed. First, a trend analysis of the maximum and minimum monthly temperatures, precipitation, heliophany, relative humidity and cloudiness using a standard least squares linear regression method and its associated F-test to determine the statistical significance of the model was done. The second treatment, looking for extreme events, we analyzed daily data in order to determine temperature and precipitation extremes using RclimDex package following the ECTCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices) recommendations. The results shows increases in trends and anomalous behavior that may be considered as a result of the e...
ABSTRACT The present report describes two types of studies about the climate and weather in Ecuad... more ABSTRACT The present report describes two types of studies about the climate and weather in Ecuador by implementing the following numerical models: Mesoescale Mesoescale Model version 5 (MM5) and Weather Research Forecasting Model (WRF) showing its principal characteristics and installation by adjusting to equatorial conditions. These studies correspond to the weather forecasting in Ecuador, using MM5 model in variables like the temperature, wind speed and precipitations. The validation study is done on precipitations forecast of Quito by means of contingency tables, studying the months of august to october, thereby obtaining a POD (Probability of Detection) of 93.5% and a FAR (False Alarm Ratio) of 14%, having demonstrated the unusually dry season that was registered at those dates. Also present the first part of the recon- struction of the equatorial atmosphere using WRF model, showing the study of the vertical profiles with wind speeds, in order to conclude this study will be necessary to examine the time series of at least 30 years. Preliminary results are obtained with a 17-kilometer zone of maximum winds, visualizing over this level a diminution of their intensity.
This research analyzes extreme events of minimum, maximum temperatures and rain in the Metropolit... more This research analyzes extreme events of minimum, maximum temperatures and rain in the Metropolitan District of Quito (DMQ) using data of 30 years from the meteorological network of INAMHI (Instituto Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología de Ecuador) using the R- ClimDex computer program. Also, is presented a projection to the year 2022 combining the statistical results of extreme events and physical forcing from PRECIS scenarios A2 and B2; using the extreme value theory from extReme computer program. The results showed an increase in extreme minimum and maximum temperature values in both, magnitude and frequency; and an increase in the intensity of heavy rainfall (over the 99th percentile). Projections showed an increase in this behavior, with results that should be taken into account by policy makers and scientist because of the danger they could mean for the population of Quito in infrastructure, health, agriculture and biodiversity
The self-organized criticality (SOC) is a recent proposed theoretical model for complex systems. ... more The self-organized criticality (SOC) is a recent proposed theoretical model for complex systems. Critical phenomena occur near phase transitions. According to this theory, when an ordered parameter increases as a power law, a tuning parameter crosses a critical value. When these parameters couple, the critical point becomes an attractor and the result is a SOC phenomenon. As a characteristic, their scale diverge. Although this concept has been applied in many different processes, ranging from geophysics to economy; in meteorology the physical process is still being considered as chaotic systems. In this case the behavior, marked by the quasi-equilibrium (Arakawa y Schubert, 1974) is far from being self-organized, with uncertainties that grow exponentially. In this context, the present review aims to propose an effective formalism to intense precipitation phenomena using SOC and continuous phase transitions theory. We suggested that the achievement of a critical value of water vapor ...
Solar radiation is an important natural factor for terrestrial life because it shapes the climate... more Solar radiation is an important natural factor for terrestrial life because it shapes the climate of the Earth and has a significant influence on the environment. A part of this is, the ultraviolet radiation (UV) which is comprised of the electromagnetic spectrum between 100 and 400 nm. A moderate exposure to UV radiation generated some cardiovascular benefits and vitamin D calcification (Marin, 2007). However, hazardous biological effects that can result considerable, for this, ultraviolet radiation is usually divided into three bands: UVC (100-280 nm) which is very dangerous to living things and is completely absorbed by the atmosphere, the radiation UVB (280-315 nm) that comes in a small proportion to the surface because it is absorbed about 90% and can generate ridges, skin cancer, cataracts and pterygium, and which comes full to the earth's surface is UVA (315-400 nm) which cause premature skin aging and darkening (Marin, 2007). All this effects of solar radiation are cumul...
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