I am currently Professor and Chair at the Department of Economics, American University of Beirut and a Research Fellow at the Centre for Economic Policy Research in London, UK. My research interests are in the areas of dynamic macroeconomic analysis, business cycles, and structural econometrics. I began my career by trying to formulate and test the econometric implications of a Real Business Cycle driven by a single technology shock, and I have continued my research on the econometric analysis of intertemporal models of consumption and labor under complete markets as well as a variety of theoretical and empirical models of investment, business cycles, and growth. My latest research covers topics such as the role of ambiguity and ambiguity aversion on business cycles and studying methods for forecasting inflation and developing coincident and leading financial indicators for emerging economies.
AbstractThe literature on business cycles is vast. In this book, I have offered a perspective bas... more AbstractThe literature on business cycles is vast. In this book, I have offered a perspective based on my own perceptions and mindsets. Nevertheless, even the experience of reviewing some of this literature shows that it is lively, at times contentious, but always thought-provoking. There are many other topics of interest that we could have discussed regarding business cycles. For one, I have omitted a discussion of multi-sector models in generating business cycle behavior. For example, it may be that shocks are concentrated in a particular sector and are propagated to the rest of the economy from that sector.1 In such cases, one needs to consider multi-sector models since the one-sector growth model does not allow for a consideration of these issues. However, multi-sector models may also have shortcomings because they typically imply that overall expansions in the economy are associated with contractions in one sector…
AbstractThe following sections are included:A SMALL OPEN-ECONOMY MODEL OF EMERGING MARKET BUSINES... more AbstractThe following sections are included:A SMALL OPEN-ECONOMY MODEL OF EMERGING MARKET BUSINESS CYCLESDO SHOCKS TO TREND PRODUCTIVITY EXPLAIN BUSINESS CYCLES IN EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES?
AbstractThe following sections are included:DYNAMIC FACTOR ANALYSISMeasures of Fit for Calibrated... more AbstractThe following sections are included:DYNAMIC FACTOR ANALYSISMeasures of Fit for Calibrated ModelsOther ApplicationsGMM ESTIMATION APPROACHESTHE CALIBRATION VERSUS ESTIMATION DEBATEThe Dynamics of OutputCalibration as EstimationNonlinearity in Macroeconomic Time SeriesThe Debate ReconsideredDSGE MODELING
AbstractThe literature on business cycles is vast. In this book, I have offered a perspective bas... more AbstractThe literature on business cycles is vast. In this book, I have offered a perspective based on my own perceptions and mindsets. Nevertheless, even the experience of reviewing some of this literature shows that it is lively, at times contentious, but always thought-provoking. There are many other topics of interest that we could have discussed regarding business cycles. For one, I have omitted a discussion of multi-sector models in generating business cycle behavior. For example, it may be that shocks are concentrated in a particular sector and are propagated to the rest of the economy from that sector.1 In such cases, one needs to consider multi-sector models since the one-sector growth model does not allow for a consideration of these issues. However, multi-sector models may also have shortcomings because they typically imply that overall expansions in the economy are associated with contractions in one sector…
AbstractThe following sections are included:A SMALL OPEN-ECONOMY MODEL OF EMERGING MARKET BUSINES... more AbstractThe following sections are included:A SMALL OPEN-ECONOMY MODEL OF EMERGING MARKET BUSINESS CYCLESDO SHOCKS TO TREND PRODUCTIVITY EXPLAIN BUSINESS CYCLES IN EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES?
AbstractThe following sections are included:DYNAMIC FACTOR ANALYSISMeasures of Fit for Calibrated... more AbstractThe following sections are included:DYNAMIC FACTOR ANALYSISMeasures of Fit for Calibrated ModelsOther ApplicationsGMM ESTIMATION APPROACHESTHE CALIBRATION VERSUS ESTIMATION DEBATEThe Dynamics of OutputCalibration as EstimationNonlinearity in Macroeconomic Time SeriesThe Debate ReconsideredDSGE MODELING
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