Primary care is the main source of health care in many health systems, including the UK National ... more Primary care is the main source of health care in many health systems, including the UK National Health Service (NHS), but few objective data exist for the volume and nature of primary care activity. With rising concerns that NHS primary care workload has increased substantially, we aimed to assess the direct clinical workload of general practitioners (GPs) and practice nurses in primary care in the UK. We did a retrospective analysis of GP and nurse consultations of non-temporary patients registered at 398 English general practices between April, 2007, and March, 2014. We used data from electronic health records routinely entered in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, and linked CPRD data to national datasets. Trends in age-standardised and sex-standardised consultation rates were modelled with joinpoint regression analysis. The dataset comprised 101 818 352 consultations and 20 626 297 person-years of observation. The crude annual consultation rate per person increased by 10·...
Computer methods and programs in biomedicine, Jan 28, 2015
The development of adequate mathematical models for blood glucose dynamics may improve early diag... more The development of adequate mathematical models for blood glucose dynamics may improve early diagnosis and control of diabetes mellitus (DM). We have developed a stochastic nonlinear second order differential equation to describe the response of blood glucose concentration to food intake using continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) data. A variational Bayesian learning scheme was applied to define the number and values of the system's parameters by iterative optimisation of free energy. The model has the minimal order and number of parameters to successfully describe blood glucose dynamics in people with and without DM. The model accounts for the nonlinearity and stochasticity of the underlying glucose-insulin dynamic process. Being data-driven, it takes full advantage of available CGM data and, at the same time, reflects the intrinsic characteristics of the glucose-insulin system without detailed knowledge of the physiological mechanisms. We have shown that the dynamics of some po...
The NHS Care Records Service (CRS) is a major goal of the National Health Service (NHS) Modernisa... more The NHS Care Records Service (CRS) is a major goal of the National Health Service (NHS) Modernisation Programme. It will provide for 24-hour access by clinicians to electronic patient records and the integration of information from previously separate databases, reducing the 'seams' between primary and secondary care, between out-of-hours and ordinary working hours, and ultimately between health and social care. Such integration is likely to affect not only individual patient care, but also public health including disease surveillance, and the monitoring of clinical activities including the achievement of clinical governance targets. The potential benefits for patients, practitioners and managers are numerous. However, the process raises issues over confidentiality, data protection and data quality. During 2003 a project was undertaken in South Warwickshire to develop an NHS CRS widely available to primary care clinicians in the region. This was part of a wider initiative fu...
Telephone triage is an increasingly common means of handling requests for same-day appointments i... more Telephone triage is an increasingly common means of handling requests for same-day appointments in general practice. To determine whether telephone triage (GP-led or nurse-led) reduces clinician-patient contact time on the day of the request (the index day), compared with usual care. A total of 42 practices in England recruited to the ESTEEM trial. Duration of initial contact (following the appointment request) was measured for all ESTEEM trial patients consenting to case notes review, and that of a sample of subsequent face-to-face consultations, to produce composite estimates of overall clinician time during the index day. Data were available from 16 711 initial clinician-patient contacts, plus 1290 GP, and 176 nurse face-to-face consultations. The mean (standard deviation) duration of initial contacts in each arm was: GP triage 4.0 (2.8) minutes; nurse triage 6.6 (3.8) minutes; and usual care 9.5 (5.0) minutes. Estimated overall contact duration (including subsequent contacts on the same day) was 10.3 minutes for GP triage, 14.8 minutes for nurse triage, and 9.6 minutes for usual care. In nurse triage, more than half the duration of clinician contact (7.7 minutes) was with a GP. This was less than the 9.0 minutes of GP time used in GP triage. Telephone triage is not associated with a reduction in overall clinician contact time during the index day. Nurse-led triage is associated with a reduction in GP contact time but with an overall increase in clinician contact time. Individual practices may wish to interpret the findings in the context of the available skill mix of clinicians.
Nurse-led telephone triage is increasingly used to manage demand for general practitioner consult... more Nurse-led telephone triage is increasingly used to manage demand for general practitioner consultations in UK general practice. Previous studies are equivocal about the relationship between clinical experience and the call outcomes of nurse triage. Most research is limited to investigating nurse telephone triage in out-of-hours settings. To investigate whether the professional characteristics of primary care nurses undertaking computer decision supported software telephone triage are related to call disposition. Questionnaire survey of nurses delivering the nurse intervention arm of the ESTEEM trial, to capture role type (practice nurse or nurse practitioner), prescriber status, number of years' nursing experience, graduate status, previous experience of triage, and perceived preparedness for triage. Our main outcome was the proportion of triaged patients recommended for follow-up within the practice (call disposition), including all contact types (face-to-face, telephone or home visit), by a general practitioner or nurse. 15 general practices and 7012 patients receiving the nurse triage intervention in four regions of the UK. 45 nurse practitioners and practice nurse trained in the use of clinical decision support software. We investigated the associations between nursing characteristics and triage call disposition for patient 'same-day' appointment requests in general practice using multivariable logistic regression modelling. Valid responses from 35 nurses (78%) from 14 practices: 31/35 (89%) had ≥10 years' experience with 24/35 (69%) having ≥20 years. Most patient contacts (3842/4605; 86%) were recommended for follow-up within the practice. Nurse practitioners were less likely to recommend patients for follow-up odds ratio 0.19, 95% confidence interval 0.07; 0.49 than practice nurses. Nurses who reported that their previous experience had prepared them less well for triage were more likely to recommend patients for follow-up (OR 3.17, 95% CI 1.18-5.55). Nurse characteristics were associated with disposition of triage calls to within practice follow-up. Nurse practitioners or those who reported feeling 'more prepared' for the role were more likely to manage the call definitively. Practices considering nurse triage should ensure that nurses transitioning into new roles feel adequately prepared. While standardised training is necessary, it may not be sufficient to ensure successful implementation.
Primary care is the main source of health care in many health systems, including the UK National ... more Primary care is the main source of health care in many health systems, including the UK National Health Service (NHS), but few objective data exist for the volume and nature of primary care activity. With rising concerns that NHS primary care workload has increased substantially, we aimed to assess the direct clinical workload of general practitioners (GPs) and practice nurses in primary care in the UK. We did a retrospective analysis of GP and nurse consultations of non-temporary patients registered at 398 English general practices between April, 2007, and March, 2014. We used data from electronic health records routinely entered in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, and linked CPRD data to national datasets. Trends in age-standardised and sex-standardised consultation rates were modelled with joinpoint regression analysis. The dataset comprised 101 818 352 consultations and 20 626 297 person-years of observation. The crude annual consultation rate per person increased by 10·...
Computer methods and programs in biomedicine, Jan 28, 2015
The development of adequate mathematical models for blood glucose dynamics may improve early diag... more The development of adequate mathematical models for blood glucose dynamics may improve early diagnosis and control of diabetes mellitus (DM). We have developed a stochastic nonlinear second order differential equation to describe the response of blood glucose concentration to food intake using continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) data. A variational Bayesian learning scheme was applied to define the number and values of the system's parameters by iterative optimisation of free energy. The model has the minimal order and number of parameters to successfully describe blood glucose dynamics in people with and without DM. The model accounts for the nonlinearity and stochasticity of the underlying glucose-insulin dynamic process. Being data-driven, it takes full advantage of available CGM data and, at the same time, reflects the intrinsic characteristics of the glucose-insulin system without detailed knowledge of the physiological mechanisms. We have shown that the dynamics of some po...
The NHS Care Records Service (CRS) is a major goal of the National Health Service (NHS) Modernisa... more The NHS Care Records Service (CRS) is a major goal of the National Health Service (NHS) Modernisation Programme. It will provide for 24-hour access by clinicians to electronic patient records and the integration of information from previously separate databases, reducing the 'seams' between primary and secondary care, between out-of-hours and ordinary working hours, and ultimately between health and social care. Such integration is likely to affect not only individual patient care, but also public health including disease surveillance, and the monitoring of clinical activities including the achievement of clinical governance targets. The potential benefits for patients, practitioners and managers are numerous. However, the process raises issues over confidentiality, data protection and data quality. During 2003 a project was undertaken in South Warwickshire to develop an NHS CRS widely available to primary care clinicians in the region. This was part of a wider initiative fu...
Telephone triage is an increasingly common means of handling requests for same-day appointments i... more Telephone triage is an increasingly common means of handling requests for same-day appointments in general practice. To determine whether telephone triage (GP-led or nurse-led) reduces clinician-patient contact time on the day of the request (the index day), compared with usual care. A total of 42 practices in England recruited to the ESTEEM trial. Duration of initial contact (following the appointment request) was measured for all ESTEEM trial patients consenting to case notes review, and that of a sample of subsequent face-to-face consultations, to produce composite estimates of overall clinician time during the index day. Data were available from 16 711 initial clinician-patient contacts, plus 1290 GP, and 176 nurse face-to-face consultations. The mean (standard deviation) duration of initial contacts in each arm was: GP triage 4.0 (2.8) minutes; nurse triage 6.6 (3.8) minutes; and usual care 9.5 (5.0) minutes. Estimated overall contact duration (including subsequent contacts on the same day) was 10.3 minutes for GP triage, 14.8 minutes for nurse triage, and 9.6 minutes for usual care. In nurse triage, more than half the duration of clinician contact (7.7 minutes) was with a GP. This was less than the 9.0 minutes of GP time used in GP triage. Telephone triage is not associated with a reduction in overall clinician contact time during the index day. Nurse-led triage is associated with a reduction in GP contact time but with an overall increase in clinician contact time. Individual practices may wish to interpret the findings in the context of the available skill mix of clinicians.
Nurse-led telephone triage is increasingly used to manage demand for general practitioner consult... more Nurse-led telephone triage is increasingly used to manage demand for general practitioner consultations in UK general practice. Previous studies are equivocal about the relationship between clinical experience and the call outcomes of nurse triage. Most research is limited to investigating nurse telephone triage in out-of-hours settings. To investigate whether the professional characteristics of primary care nurses undertaking computer decision supported software telephone triage are related to call disposition. Questionnaire survey of nurses delivering the nurse intervention arm of the ESTEEM trial, to capture role type (practice nurse or nurse practitioner), prescriber status, number of years' nursing experience, graduate status, previous experience of triage, and perceived preparedness for triage. Our main outcome was the proportion of triaged patients recommended for follow-up within the practice (call disposition), including all contact types (face-to-face, telephone or home visit), by a general practitioner or nurse. 15 general practices and 7012 patients receiving the nurse triage intervention in four regions of the UK. 45 nurse practitioners and practice nurse trained in the use of clinical decision support software. We investigated the associations between nursing characteristics and triage call disposition for patient 'same-day' appointment requests in general practice using multivariable logistic regression modelling. Valid responses from 35 nurses (78%) from 14 practices: 31/35 (89%) had ≥10 years' experience with 24/35 (69%) having ≥20 years. Most patient contacts (3842/4605; 86%) were recommended for follow-up within the practice. Nurse practitioners were less likely to recommend patients for follow-up odds ratio 0.19, 95% confidence interval 0.07; 0.49 than practice nurses. Nurses who reported that their previous experience had prepared them less well for triage were more likely to recommend patients for follow-up (OR 3.17, 95% CI 1.18-5.55). Nurse characteristics were associated with disposition of triage calls to within practice follow-up. Nurse practitioners or those who reported feeling 'more prepared' for the role were more likely to manage the call definitively. Practices considering nurse triage should ensure that nurses transitioning into new roles feel adequately prepared. While standardised training is necessary, it may not be sufficient to ensure successful implementation.
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