Introduction: Following TIA, there is an increased risk for ischemic stroke. Admission to the hos... more Introduction: Following TIA, there is an increased risk for ischemic stroke. Admission to the hospital is advocated for observation, rapid performance of diagnostic tests, and potential acute intervention. The American Heart Association (AHA) recommends admission following a TIA for patients with ABCD 2 scores greater than 3. We aimed to determine the relationship between ABCD 2 scores and acute neurologic deterioration (TIA or stroke) during hospitalization. Methods: We reviewed consecutive patients admitted to our institution following a TIA between August 1, 2006 and March 31, 2011. TIA was defined as transient focal neurological symptoms that could be attributed to a specific vascular distribution and lasted < 24 hours. We collected data on demographics, clinical symptoms, duration, risk factors, and in-hospital treatments and outcomes. Results: Of 251 patients (mean age 64 years; 45% male), the median ABCD 2 score was 4. The majority had motor symptoms (58.6%) and/or speech/...
Background Data sparsity is a major limitation to estimating national and global dementia burden.... more Background Data sparsity is a major limitation to estimating national and global dementia burden. Surveys with full diagnostic evaluations of dementia prevalence are prohibitively resource-intensive in many settings. However, validation samples from nationally representative surveys allow for the development of algorithms for the prediction of dementia prevalence nationally. Methods Using cognitive testing data and data on functional limitations from Wave A (2001–2003) of the ADAMS study (n = 744) and the 2000 wave of the HRS study (n = 6358) we estimated a two-dimensional item response theory model to calculate cognition and function scores for all individuals over 70. Based on diagnostic information from the formal clinical adjudication in ADAMS, we fit a logistic regression model for the classification of dementia status using cognition and function scores and applied this algorithm to the full HRS sample to calculate dementia prevalence by age and sex. Results Our algorithm had ...
P133 Background and Purpose: Isolated systolic hypertension (ISH) is frequently observed in elder... more P133 Background and Purpose: Isolated systolic hypertension (ISH) is frequently observed in elderly persons. The effect of ISH on the long-term risk for stroke and stroke subtypes is unclear. We performed this study to evaluate the long-term risk of stroke in persons with ISH. METHODS: We evaluated the incidence of stroke and stroke subtypes(ischemic and hemorrhagic) in a nationally representative cohort of 14,047 adults who participated in the First National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey during the 20-year follow-up. ISH was defined as a systolic blood pressure(BP)>160mmHg and diastolic BP<90mmHg. RESULTS: A total of 376 persons with ISH, 8985 persons with normotension, and 4686 persons with classic hypertension were followed. During the follow-up period, the annual incidences of ischemic stroke and intracerebral hemorrhage for patients with ISH were 1.7% and .05% respectively. After adjusting for differences in age, race,and gender, the risk for ischemic stroke was...
BACKGROUND Transport-related injuries (TIs) are a substantial public health concern for all regio... more BACKGROUND Transport-related injuries (TIs) are a substantial public health concern for all regions of the world. The present study quantified the burden of TIs and deaths in the Eastern Mediterranean region (EMR) in 2017 by sex and age. METHODS TIs and deaths were estimated by age, sex, country, and year using Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) and DisMod-MR 2.1. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), which quantify the total burden of years lost due to premature death or disability, were also estimated per 100000 population. All estimates were reported along with their corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). RESULTS In 2017, there were 5.5 million (UI 4.9-6.2) transport-related incident cases in the EMR - a substantial increase from 1990 (2.8 million; UI 2.5-3.1). The age-standardized incidence rate for the EMR in 2017 was 787 (UI 705.5-876.2) per 100000, which has not changed significantly since 1990 (-0.9%; UI -4.7 to 3). These rates differed remarkably between co...
Background Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health ser... more Background Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0–100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target—1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023—we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023. Findings Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2–47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7–61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9–3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010–2019 relative to 1990–2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6–421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0–3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5–1040·3]) residing in south Asia. Interpretation The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people—the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for…
Background Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential huma... more Background Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce highresolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities. Methods We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs. Findings Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40•0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39•4-40•7) to 50•3% (50•0-50•5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46•3% (95% UI 46•1-46•5) in 2017, compared with 28•7% (28•5-29•0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (&gt;80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88•6% (95% UI 87•2-89•7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664-711) of the 1830 (1797-1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76•1% (95% UI 71•6-80•7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53•9% (50•6-59•6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017. Interpretation Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation. Funding Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation.
ObjectivesThe onset of ischemic stroke symptoms has been established to have a diurnal variation,... more ObjectivesThe onset of ischemic stroke symptoms has been established to have a diurnal variation, with a sizeable proportion (8–28%) occurring during sleep. Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) has been established as an important risk factor for ischemic stroke. However, data on the relationship between OSA and wake-up stroke (WUS) has been scarce. The aim of our study is to determine the relationship between OSA and WUS.MethodsThis is a case-control study conducted on acute stroke patients who presented to one of two major medical centers in Riyadh of Saudi Arabia. Those who woke up with the symptoms were labeled as WUS, and those whose stroke occurred while awake were labeled as non wake-up stroke (NWUS). The Berlin Questionnaire, which was submitted to either the patient or his/her partner, was used to determine the frequency of OSA in the two groups.ResultsOne hundred seven patients (60% males) with acute stroke were admitted between March 2016 and March 2017. Of the 40 patients with WUS, 29 (72.5%) had underlying OSA based on the Berlin Questionnaire, whereas only 30 (45%) of the 67 patients with NWUS have underlying OSA. Logistic regression analysis showed OSA is highly prevalent in the patients with WUS (OR = 3.25; 95% CI = 1.397–8.38; p = 0.0053).ConclusionOSA is an important risk factor for ischemic stroke during sleep. Health care providers must be vigilant in inquiring about symptoms suggestive of OSA in every ischemic stroke patient, especially the patient whose stroke occurred during sleep.
Introduction: Following TIA, there is an increased risk for ischemic stroke. Admission to the hos... more Introduction: Following TIA, there is an increased risk for ischemic stroke. Admission to the hospital is advocated for observation, rapid performance of diagnostic tests, and potential acute intervention. The American Heart Association (AHA) recommends admission following a TIA for patients with ABCD 2 scores greater than 3. We aimed to determine the relationship between ABCD 2 scores and acute neurologic deterioration (TIA or stroke) during hospitalization. Methods: We reviewed consecutive patients admitted to our institution following a TIA between August 1, 2006 and March 31, 2011. TIA was defined as transient focal neurological symptoms that could be attributed to a specific vascular distribution and lasted < 24 hours. We collected data on demographics, clinical symptoms, duration, risk factors, and in-hospital treatments and outcomes. Results: Of 251 patients (mean age 64 years; 45% male), the median ABCD 2 score was 4. The majority had motor symptoms (58.6%) and/or speech/...
Background Data sparsity is a major limitation to estimating national and global dementia burden.... more Background Data sparsity is a major limitation to estimating national and global dementia burden. Surveys with full diagnostic evaluations of dementia prevalence are prohibitively resource-intensive in many settings. However, validation samples from nationally representative surveys allow for the development of algorithms for the prediction of dementia prevalence nationally. Methods Using cognitive testing data and data on functional limitations from Wave A (2001–2003) of the ADAMS study (n = 744) and the 2000 wave of the HRS study (n = 6358) we estimated a two-dimensional item response theory model to calculate cognition and function scores for all individuals over 70. Based on diagnostic information from the formal clinical adjudication in ADAMS, we fit a logistic regression model for the classification of dementia status using cognition and function scores and applied this algorithm to the full HRS sample to calculate dementia prevalence by age and sex. Results Our algorithm had ...
P133 Background and Purpose: Isolated systolic hypertension (ISH) is frequently observed in elder... more P133 Background and Purpose: Isolated systolic hypertension (ISH) is frequently observed in elderly persons. The effect of ISH on the long-term risk for stroke and stroke subtypes is unclear. We performed this study to evaluate the long-term risk of stroke in persons with ISH. METHODS: We evaluated the incidence of stroke and stroke subtypes(ischemic and hemorrhagic) in a nationally representative cohort of 14,047 adults who participated in the First National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey during the 20-year follow-up. ISH was defined as a systolic blood pressure(BP)>160mmHg and diastolic BP<90mmHg. RESULTS: A total of 376 persons with ISH, 8985 persons with normotension, and 4686 persons with classic hypertension were followed. During the follow-up period, the annual incidences of ischemic stroke and intracerebral hemorrhage for patients with ISH were 1.7% and .05% respectively. After adjusting for differences in age, race,and gender, the risk for ischemic stroke was...
BACKGROUND Transport-related injuries (TIs) are a substantial public health concern for all regio... more BACKGROUND Transport-related injuries (TIs) are a substantial public health concern for all regions of the world. The present study quantified the burden of TIs and deaths in the Eastern Mediterranean region (EMR) in 2017 by sex and age. METHODS TIs and deaths were estimated by age, sex, country, and year using Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) and DisMod-MR 2.1. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), which quantify the total burden of years lost due to premature death or disability, were also estimated per 100000 population. All estimates were reported along with their corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). RESULTS In 2017, there were 5.5 million (UI 4.9-6.2) transport-related incident cases in the EMR - a substantial increase from 1990 (2.8 million; UI 2.5-3.1). The age-standardized incidence rate for the EMR in 2017 was 787 (UI 705.5-876.2) per 100000, which has not changed significantly since 1990 (-0.9%; UI -4.7 to 3). These rates differed remarkably between co...
Background Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health ser... more Background Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0–100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target—1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023—we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023. Findings Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2–47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7–61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9–3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010–2019 relative to 1990–2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6–421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0–3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5–1040·3]) residing in south Asia. Interpretation The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people—the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for…
Background Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential huma... more Background Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce highresolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities. Methods We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs. Findings Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40•0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39•4-40•7) to 50•3% (50•0-50•5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46•3% (95% UI 46•1-46•5) in 2017, compared with 28•7% (28•5-29•0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (&gt;80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88•6% (95% UI 87•2-89•7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664-711) of the 1830 (1797-1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76•1% (95% UI 71•6-80•7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53•9% (50•6-59•6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017. Interpretation Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation. Funding Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation.
ObjectivesThe onset of ischemic stroke symptoms has been established to have a diurnal variation,... more ObjectivesThe onset of ischemic stroke symptoms has been established to have a diurnal variation, with a sizeable proportion (8–28%) occurring during sleep. Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) has been established as an important risk factor for ischemic stroke. However, data on the relationship between OSA and wake-up stroke (WUS) has been scarce. The aim of our study is to determine the relationship between OSA and WUS.MethodsThis is a case-control study conducted on acute stroke patients who presented to one of two major medical centers in Riyadh of Saudi Arabia. Those who woke up with the symptoms were labeled as WUS, and those whose stroke occurred while awake were labeled as non wake-up stroke (NWUS). The Berlin Questionnaire, which was submitted to either the patient or his/her partner, was used to determine the frequency of OSA in the two groups.ResultsOne hundred seven patients (60% males) with acute stroke were admitted between March 2016 and March 2017. Of the 40 patients with WUS, 29 (72.5%) had underlying OSA based on the Berlin Questionnaire, whereas only 30 (45%) of the 67 patients with NWUS have underlying OSA. Logistic regression analysis showed OSA is highly prevalent in the patients with WUS (OR = 3.25; 95% CI = 1.397–8.38; p = 0.0053).ConclusionOSA is an important risk factor for ischemic stroke during sleep. Health care providers must be vigilant in inquiring about symptoms suggestive of OSA in every ischemic stroke patient, especially the patient whose stroke occurred during sleep.
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