Trade has been playing a significant part as an engine of growth for almost every nation on the g... more Trade has been playing a significant part as an engine of growth for almost every nation on the globe. Each country attempts to have bilateral, regional, free trade, or preferential trade agreements to boost its economic growth and potential. The study focuses on investigating the bilateral trade potential of Pakistan with selected Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries specifically with the United Kingdom, Japan, Australia, Sweden, Switzerland, and Norway, through Panel data analysis. The sample period is taken from the year 1982-2021. Variables used are economic growth (GDP), economic development (GDP per capita), the exchange rate (exr), inflation (inf), and foreign direct investment (FDI) are empirically researched on bilateral trade. Unit root test is applied to test the stationarity. Following the stationarity estimations descriptive analysis is conducted. Simple panel OLS regression, random and fixed effects are applied. Hausman is conducted a...
This paper analyzes Pakistan's monetary policy transmission mechanism by considering these ch... more This paper analyzes Pakistan's monetary policy transmission mechanism by considering these channels: Interest rate Channel, Credit Channel, and Risk channel. In this study, an innovative channel, Risk Channel, is introduced to measure its impact on the monetary policy transmission mechanism by covering the annual time data from 1995 to 2020for Pakistan. This paper aims to examine the long-run and the short-run relationship between foreign debt, bank capital, and monetary policy transmission mechanism. To fulfill this objective, we intended to use Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to investigate long-run and short-run relations. As per the result, the risk channel represents that it is not following the cointegration benchmark. The coefficient is negative, but the probability is more significant than 0.05, which is statistically insignificant; therefore, there is no long-run relationship between the model variables. The interest rate channel represents that it ensures t...
This article examines the association between inflation and exports & imports in perspective ... more This article examines the association between inflation and exports & imports in perspective of the Pakistani economy. The researchers have taken month-to-month data of CPI (the indicator of inflation), imports and exports from July 2001 through June 2017. For the analysis purpose, researchers have employed error correction model to examine the short- run association amongst the variables; however, Johansen cointegration was used to investigate the long run association amongst the variables. The Granger causality approach has been applied to check the causal directionality between the pair of variables. Results of analysis exhibited that in a long run 1% increase in exports and imports cause 0.63% and 0.57% increase in the CPI (inflation) correspondingly. However, the coefficient of predictable error correlation signifies that approximately 1.18% deviance of inflation rate through the long run level of equilibrium has been adjusted every year. Whereas, the outcomes of variance decomposition analysis (VDA) demonstrated that exports employed the highest innovation influence on the CPI (inflation) amongst all three indicators in the overall arrangement of inflation. Lastly, the outcomes of Granger causality and Toda Yamamoto causality does not find evidence for the hypotheses that the monthly changes of export and import do not cause the monthly modification in inflation in case of Pakistani economy.
International Journal of Social Science & Entrepreneurship
The meditation of this study is to realizeunemploymentin Pakistan with the perspective of macroec... more The meditation of this study is to realizeunemploymentin Pakistan with the perspective of macroeconomic factors, including FDI,private investment,exports and government expenditure.Annual dataused in this study from 1985 to 2019was obtained from different issues of economic surveys and official website of the Pakistan’s Central Bank. The prerequisite required to exploretime series model is to check the stationarity, we apply ADF and PP tests to identify stationary series among our macroeconomic series. All variables are used log transformation in order to smooth the series. The results reveal that at level only unemployment is stationary while remaining series are stationary at first difference. Therefore,the appropriate time series model for different stationary series is Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. We apply four different ARDL models to detectthe long-run connection between unemployment and other macroeconomic series employed in this paper. Out of four, three mode...
International Journal of Social Science & Entrepreneurship
Corruption hurts various factors of a country, including welfare systems, governments and, most i... more Corruption hurts various factors of a country, including welfare systems, governments and, most importantly, economic growth. This paper investigates the relationship between economic growth and corruption in Pakistan from 1998 to 2021. We used time series models to check this relationship. The prerequisite of the time series model is the unit root test. We use the augmented dicky fuller (ADF) and Philips-Perron (PP) tests. To check the short-run and long-run relationship between economic growth and corruption, along with other macroeconomic variables, ARDL was used. As per our findings, the effects of crime and interest rates on economic growth (LGDP) are positive and statistically significant. However, the short-run association between LED and LGCF with LGDP is not statistically significant. Furthermore, corruption and gross capital formation truly influence economic growth over the long-term for this specific data, yet LED, and LIR factors are statistically insignificant, suggest...
The undertaken study is conducted to forecast the inflation of Pakistan for the financial year FY... more The undertaken study is conducted to forecast the inflation of Pakistan for the financial year FY2018-19 using two different time series techniques. In this research, we used consumer price index (CPI) and wholesale price index (WPI) with their subgroups as inflation indicators for Pakistan. The undertaken research analyzes the proficiency of two important econometrics time series approaches such as Autoregressive (AR) with seasonal dummies, and Autoregressive integrated moving averaged (ARIMA) models by using root mean square (RMSE) criteria. In any economy, inflation and its forecasting are an imperative factor for the fiscal and monetary policies. The study is pertinent, as the forecasted figures of inflation start before the FY2018-19, which helps the policy makers to set the inflation target for FY2018-19. The month-to-month data has been considered for this study for the period from July 2008 to June 2018, and this research is concentrated on forecasting for the year 2018-19. In order to forecast CPI, we use 12 subgroups and for WPI we use 5 subgroups in both baskets for the 2007-08 base year. The result of this study reveals that the forecasted value of period average of CPI for the period FY2018-19 is 6.23 percent, however, for WPI is 8.96 percent.
The purpose of the undertaken research study is to examine the influence of crude oil and gold pr... more The purpose of the undertaken research study is to examine the influence of crude oil and gold prices on the equity returns of Baltic and South Asian stock markets. The study comprises of daily data from January 1, 2010, to June 30, 201 6. Nasdaq Baltic market (LOMXBBGI) data time series is stationary at level; however, rest of the data series became stationary at first difference by employing Philips-Perron and Augmented Dickey-Fuller approach es. Results of Johansen cointegration illustrated an ab sence of the cointegration amongst the considered e conomic indicators, therefore; we could not establish the long haul association am idst the equity returns of Baltic and South Asian m arkets, and crude oil and gold prices. The outcomes of VEC Granger Causality/Block Exogene ity Wald approach suggested unidirectional causalit y from LCOP to LKSE100 and LGP to LKSE100. Hence, it has been established that there is no causal affiliation amongst the variabl es. However, it is further concl...
The objective of this research was to forecast the sectorial energy consumption of Pakistan for f... more The objective of this research was to forecast the sectorial energy consumption of Pakistan for five fiscal years, i.e., from FY18 to FY23 using two different time series techniques and explore the causal relationship between total energy consumption and its sectorial components, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The study further analyzed the efficiency of two different time series models, such as the Autoregressive model (AR with seasonal dummies) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (ARIMA/ARMA). In any economy, forecasting energy consumption and its relationship with GDP is paramount to ensure the economic development and fiscal policies. This study used components of total energy consumption (TEC) such as domestic energy consumption (DEC), commercial energy consumption (CEC), industrial energy consumption (IEC), agricultural energy consumption (AEC), transport energy consumption (TrEC) and other government energy consumption (OGEC). The data is taken from FY1977 t...
The objective of this research paper is to examine the relationship between relative price variab... more The objective of this research paper is to examine the relationship between relative price variability and inflation by using consumer price index (CPI) of Pakistan. The outcomes of the research further divided into food and non-food groups too. The monthly data of CPI was taken from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, from August 2001 to July 2011 (with 2000-01 base) for 92 composite commodities with 12 sub-groups. We employed the Granger causality testing approach for the evaluation of any possible influence of one indicator to another. In this scenario, it is viable to state that there is a presence of causality and bidirectional feedback between the variables or the two variables are independent. The major issue is to identify a suitable statistical method that enables us to analyze the association among the variables. The findings of this study demonstrated that there is a probable relationship between inflation (DPt) and both un-weighted measures of price variability (VPt and S...
Trade has been playing a significant part as an engine of growth for almost every nation on the g... more Trade has been playing a significant part as an engine of growth for almost every nation on the globe. Each country attempts to have bilateral, regional, free trade, or preferential trade agreements to boost its economic growth and potential. The study focuses on investigating the bilateral trade potential of Pakistan with selected Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries specifically with the United Kingdom, Japan, Australia, Sweden, Switzerland, and Norway, through Panel data analysis. The sample period is taken from the year 1982-2021. Variables used are economic growth (GDP), economic development (GDP per capita), the exchange rate (exr), inflation (inf), and foreign direct investment (FDI) are empirically researched on bilateral trade. Unit root test is applied to test the stationarity. Following the stationarity estimations descriptive analysis is conducted. Simple panel OLS regression, random and fixed effects are applied. Hausman is conducted a...
This paper analyzes Pakistan's monetary policy transmission mechanism by considering these ch... more This paper analyzes Pakistan's monetary policy transmission mechanism by considering these channels: Interest rate Channel, Credit Channel, and Risk channel. In this study, an innovative channel, Risk Channel, is introduced to measure its impact on the monetary policy transmission mechanism by covering the annual time data from 1995 to 2020for Pakistan. This paper aims to examine the long-run and the short-run relationship between foreign debt, bank capital, and monetary policy transmission mechanism. To fulfill this objective, we intended to use Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to investigate long-run and short-run relations. As per the result, the risk channel represents that it is not following the cointegration benchmark. The coefficient is negative, but the probability is more significant than 0.05, which is statistically insignificant; therefore, there is no long-run relationship between the model variables. The interest rate channel represents that it ensures t...
This article examines the association between inflation and exports & imports in perspective ... more This article examines the association between inflation and exports & imports in perspective of the Pakistani economy. The researchers have taken month-to-month data of CPI (the indicator of inflation), imports and exports from July 2001 through June 2017. For the analysis purpose, researchers have employed error correction model to examine the short- run association amongst the variables; however, Johansen cointegration was used to investigate the long run association amongst the variables. The Granger causality approach has been applied to check the causal directionality between the pair of variables. Results of analysis exhibited that in a long run 1% increase in exports and imports cause 0.63% and 0.57% increase in the CPI (inflation) correspondingly. However, the coefficient of predictable error correlation signifies that approximately 1.18% deviance of inflation rate through the long run level of equilibrium has been adjusted every year. Whereas, the outcomes of variance decomposition analysis (VDA) demonstrated that exports employed the highest innovation influence on the CPI (inflation) amongst all three indicators in the overall arrangement of inflation. Lastly, the outcomes of Granger causality and Toda Yamamoto causality does not find evidence for the hypotheses that the monthly changes of export and import do not cause the monthly modification in inflation in case of Pakistani economy.
International Journal of Social Science & Entrepreneurship
The meditation of this study is to realizeunemploymentin Pakistan with the perspective of macroec... more The meditation of this study is to realizeunemploymentin Pakistan with the perspective of macroeconomic factors, including FDI,private investment,exports and government expenditure.Annual dataused in this study from 1985 to 2019was obtained from different issues of economic surveys and official website of the Pakistan’s Central Bank. The prerequisite required to exploretime series model is to check the stationarity, we apply ADF and PP tests to identify stationary series among our macroeconomic series. All variables are used log transformation in order to smooth the series. The results reveal that at level only unemployment is stationary while remaining series are stationary at first difference. Therefore,the appropriate time series model for different stationary series is Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. We apply four different ARDL models to detectthe long-run connection between unemployment and other macroeconomic series employed in this paper. Out of four, three mode...
International Journal of Social Science & Entrepreneurship
Corruption hurts various factors of a country, including welfare systems, governments and, most i... more Corruption hurts various factors of a country, including welfare systems, governments and, most importantly, economic growth. This paper investigates the relationship between economic growth and corruption in Pakistan from 1998 to 2021. We used time series models to check this relationship. The prerequisite of the time series model is the unit root test. We use the augmented dicky fuller (ADF) and Philips-Perron (PP) tests. To check the short-run and long-run relationship between economic growth and corruption, along with other macroeconomic variables, ARDL was used. As per our findings, the effects of crime and interest rates on economic growth (LGDP) are positive and statistically significant. However, the short-run association between LED and LGCF with LGDP is not statistically significant. Furthermore, corruption and gross capital formation truly influence economic growth over the long-term for this specific data, yet LED, and LIR factors are statistically insignificant, suggest...
The undertaken study is conducted to forecast the inflation of Pakistan for the financial year FY... more The undertaken study is conducted to forecast the inflation of Pakistan for the financial year FY2018-19 using two different time series techniques. In this research, we used consumer price index (CPI) and wholesale price index (WPI) with their subgroups as inflation indicators for Pakistan. The undertaken research analyzes the proficiency of two important econometrics time series approaches such as Autoregressive (AR) with seasonal dummies, and Autoregressive integrated moving averaged (ARIMA) models by using root mean square (RMSE) criteria. In any economy, inflation and its forecasting are an imperative factor for the fiscal and monetary policies. The study is pertinent, as the forecasted figures of inflation start before the FY2018-19, which helps the policy makers to set the inflation target for FY2018-19. The month-to-month data has been considered for this study for the period from July 2008 to June 2018, and this research is concentrated on forecasting for the year 2018-19. In order to forecast CPI, we use 12 subgroups and for WPI we use 5 subgroups in both baskets for the 2007-08 base year. The result of this study reveals that the forecasted value of period average of CPI for the period FY2018-19 is 6.23 percent, however, for WPI is 8.96 percent.
The purpose of the undertaken research study is to examine the influence of crude oil and gold pr... more The purpose of the undertaken research study is to examine the influence of crude oil and gold prices on the equity returns of Baltic and South Asian stock markets. The study comprises of daily data from January 1, 2010, to June 30, 201 6. Nasdaq Baltic market (LOMXBBGI) data time series is stationary at level; however, rest of the data series became stationary at first difference by employing Philips-Perron and Augmented Dickey-Fuller approach es. Results of Johansen cointegration illustrated an ab sence of the cointegration amongst the considered e conomic indicators, therefore; we could not establish the long haul association am idst the equity returns of Baltic and South Asian m arkets, and crude oil and gold prices. The outcomes of VEC Granger Causality/Block Exogene ity Wald approach suggested unidirectional causalit y from LCOP to LKSE100 and LGP to LKSE100. Hence, it has been established that there is no causal affiliation amongst the variabl es. However, it is further concl...
The objective of this research was to forecast the sectorial energy consumption of Pakistan for f... more The objective of this research was to forecast the sectorial energy consumption of Pakistan for five fiscal years, i.e., from FY18 to FY23 using two different time series techniques and explore the causal relationship between total energy consumption and its sectorial components, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The study further analyzed the efficiency of two different time series models, such as the Autoregressive model (AR with seasonal dummies) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (ARIMA/ARMA). In any economy, forecasting energy consumption and its relationship with GDP is paramount to ensure the economic development and fiscal policies. This study used components of total energy consumption (TEC) such as domestic energy consumption (DEC), commercial energy consumption (CEC), industrial energy consumption (IEC), agricultural energy consumption (AEC), transport energy consumption (TrEC) and other government energy consumption (OGEC). The data is taken from FY1977 t...
The objective of this research paper is to examine the relationship between relative price variab... more The objective of this research paper is to examine the relationship between relative price variability and inflation by using consumer price index (CPI) of Pakistan. The outcomes of the research further divided into food and non-food groups too. The monthly data of CPI was taken from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, from August 2001 to July 2011 (with 2000-01 base) for 92 composite commodities with 12 sub-groups. We employed the Granger causality testing approach for the evaluation of any possible influence of one indicator to another. In this scenario, it is viable to state that there is a presence of causality and bidirectional feedback between the variables or the two variables are independent. The major issue is to identify a suitable statistical method that enables us to analyze the association among the variables. The findings of this study demonstrated that there is a probable relationship between inflation (DPt) and both un-weighted measures of price variability (VPt and S...
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