The men’s season-opener and a chance to see all the kit and bikes sparkle in bright sunshine. This is often a surprisingly subtle race where the winning move can be a sprint for a time bonus rather than a blazing attack.
Here’s a look at the stages, the contenders and the daily finish times.
Stage 1
A sprint stage but with over 2,000m of vertical gain so if it’s ridden hard – big if – then some will be tired by the finish. The early mountains and intermediate sprints can count. “Berry Hill” is just Cudlee Creek road, it’s the main road and only steep for a moment.
- Forecast finish: 3.20pm / 05.50am CET / 04.50am GMT / D-1 11.50pm EST
Stage 2
A trip through the Barossa vineyards and a likely sprint finish in Tanuda. This route is a regular and Mengler’s Hill rarely troubles the sprinters.
- Forecast finish: 2.30pm / 05.00am CET / 04.00am GMT / D-1 11.00pm EST
Stage 3
3,200m of climbing, almost a mountain stage, especially in January. While the race tackles many of the same roads and this stage has many familiar features, this includes the new climb of Knotts Hill, 2km at 8% but with a drag that goes on after the top, in total it’s almost 5km long. Climbed twice, the finish line is close by each time meaning valuable time bonuses, first for the intermediate and then for the stage.
- Forecast finish: 3.00pm / 05.30am CET / 04.30am GMT / D-1 11.30pm EST
Stage 4
The coastal stage to Victor Harbor, almost a copy of 2023’s stage. The crossing of the Fleurieu Peninsula can cause trouble if the wind is up as it’s often on exposed scrubland. The race almost reaches the finish only to head out for a lap around Mount Billy and the Nettle Hill KoM point which is mainly on a big road north before turning at the top onto a backroad to go south and for the traditional finish in Victor Harbor, complete with the unmarked but gentle climb of Greenhills road and then the right bend-left bend in the final kilometre. The weather forecast a few days out says a calm day so a sprint looks likely but there’s room to attack.
- Forecast finish: 3.20pm / 05.50am CET / 04.50am GMT / D-1 11.50pm EST
Stage 5
The classic Willunga stage, laps of the vineyards before climbing Old Willunga hill twice, once to roll through the finish line, the second time as the summit finish. Willunga Hill is the key, it’s 3km at an average if 7.5%, a steady gradient and a wide road most of the way and exposed if there’s any wind. It’s a tactical climb, being on the right wheel matters as the speed is so high, the idea is to ride the slipstream of your rival and then strike out as late as possible, but before everyone else.
- Forecast finish: 2.50pm / 05.20am CET / 04.20am GMT / D-1 11.20pm EST
Stage 6
A return to the old format of a criterium-style race in the streets of Adelaide where no stage profile is needed as it’s nearly flat but there are two intermediate sprints during the 90km on the 4.5km circuit.
- Forecast finish: 3.30pm / 06.00am CET / 05.00am GMT / D-1 midnight EST
Time bonuses
These often define the final result, 3-2-1 seconds at the intermediate sprints, 10-6-4 seconds for the first three at the stage finish.
The Contenders
Knotts Hill and Willunga should be decisive days. The archetypal winner can match rivals on these climbs and then clean up in the sprint for the stage after, and even poach time at other points along the way. This makes home home Luke Plapp (Jayco) a harder picker as he’s got the power but has he got the racecraft to poach time bonuses? The team are talking up Mauro Schmid who is a talented rider but Chris Harper is in form but he’d have to find a way to go solo as he’s normally a climber suited to longer Alpine efforts.
Jay Vine and Jhonatan Narváez make a good combo for UAE, Vine second in the Australian time trial championships and Narváez is one of the few who can say they took on and beat Tadej Pogačar last year and it’s his range that makes him a pick.
A year ago IPT won the race with Stephen Williams but their original plan was to back Corbin Strong only for him to crash. Strong is worth watching as he sprint and almost match the best on the short climbs while Flèche Wallonne winner Williams can repeat again.
Oscar Onley (Picnic-PostNL) won on Willunga last year but remember Richie Porte? Porte won on Willunga seven times but only one of these times did he also win the race overall; he won another overall title after finishing second on Willunga. So again climbing strong is necessary but how can Onley pick up the time bonuses.
Another Brit, a similar story for Thomas Gloag (Visma-LAB) who leadership and is a due a result. A good climber and punchy, there’s a path to victory but it’s probably got to be the direct route via Knotts Hill and Willunga and not easy.
Finn Fisher-Black fits the bill for a winner and so does Laurence Pithie, both new signings at Red Bull and if both might want to shine later in the season, Pithie showed you can win Down Under and then have a strong classics campaign in 2024.
Lidl-Trek come with a strong team with Andrea Bagioli as a candidate but form unknown and he’s hardly a prolific winner. Albert Philipsen though has been looked strong on some of the climbs in the Adelaide hills on Strava but can he also show the positioning and tactics needed? One to watch certainly because he can climb, time trial and sprint.
Ineos knew that 2024 was a poor year for them and hatched plans to make amends for this long ago and part of this included starting 2025 with a result but how? Lucas Hamilton is the local recruit but a tough ask to win. Magnus Sheffield is full of potential and Michał Kwiatkokwsi excels at crafty racing but aged 34 can he land a result?
Junior Lecerf is a handy rider here for Soudal-Quickstep. At his best Paul Lapeira (Decathlon) could be a contender but is the form there? Probably not. British tandem Max Walker and Lukas Nerurkar seem unlikely to win but the first is one to watch this season and the latter had a strong first year as a pro in 2024 and seems suited to short climbs.
XDS-Astana start their crucial year and come with an ambitious team. Alberto Bettiol has been a stage winner here before but how to win overall, he’s not the fastest in a sprint so it’s solo or bust and by barging away when others are tired rather than in a direct uphill contest. One thing to watch will be cohesion with more rider on the team capable of scoring, Sergio Higuita and Ide Schelling are outsiders for a stage win, can they also guide Aaron Gate towards time bonuses?
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Narvaez, Williams |
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Plapp, Vine, Onley |
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Strong, Gloag, Lecerf, Fisher-Black |
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Bettiol, Sheffield, Nerurkar |
TV: it’s live on Seven for Australians (free streaming, email sign up required) and VPN users looking for English coverage. Eurosport for most of Europe, it’s on Peacock in the US and for French readers, it’s on L’Equipe TV too.
Notes
- The stage finish times vary each day
- The weather forecast looks warm but not scorching
- 500 UCI points to the winner, 60 to a stage winner
Thanks for the great preview! I understand that for European audiences this race isn’t that interesting but it’s pretty exciting for Australian cycling fans. Should be a great week, just wish I was there.
The arrival times listed above are partly so I can set my alarm, it’s worth getting up for. But at the same time it’s also very predictable, you can get up, watch 10-15 minutes and go back to bed knowing the result. As blogged before I’d prefer a race that compels me to set the alarm even earlier, that has unmissable final hours.
I think that’s just the nature of the terrain – no long climbs which draw your attention, and the presence of the national team means that even the breakaways seem to establish without too much effort, as the WT pros know they can catch the local escapees.
Maybe also the heat. Four or five hours of full-on racing in 40 degrees perhaps not so attractive at this stage of the season.
I think the race needs at least one more stage … probably a time trial (sans time trial bikes).
Stage three looks like fun. Here in California it’s prime-time viewing, like Monday Night Football for cycling geeks. Can’t wait to see who steps up, but wouldn’t be surprised at all if Stevie Williams backs up last year with another great result.
It’s nice to be back though I’m seeing results on PCS with breakfast rather than watching the insomniac – though free – L’Equipe21 TV.
Stage 1: Welsford went early and held on despite fading. Brennan closing fast and just needing another 50m for a WT win at nineteen. Walls will be encouraged after a miserable 2024.
Stage 2: Welsford again, or Brennan?
For any VPN viewers L’Equipe has a very good picture quality (you can choose the bitrate).
I like to see the “up and comers” and that us what the big teams tend to send here … Brennan being a case in point.
As a local, Stage 3 with Knotts Hill twice is an absolute bugger. A look at the Strava leaderboard shows who is taking this climb seriously with Woods, Williams and Strong from IPT and Rudy Porter (Jayco-Alula) leading the top 10 with 6:25-6:26 up the climb in recent days.
This will be the day that the GC is whittled down with Willunga to confirm it.
Looking fwd to both Stage 3 & 5 !!
I’m really looking forward to Stage 3 especially. Are you going to get out to see any of the action in person?
Welsford’s leadout man should certainly have had a yellow card. He looked and then blocked Welsford’s competitors. (Van Poppel, I think.)
Oh, he now has.
Danny van Poppel (Red Bull – BORA – hansgrohe). Irregular sprint. 500CHF fine; yellow card; relegation to last place in the rider’s group; 7 point penalty in points classification and 3 point penalty in the KOM classification.
Small price to pay for ensuring the victory. I’d have DQ’d him from the race, as that’s a greater deterrent, but we’ll see if this card system improves behaviour.
I thought about the yellow card as soon as I saw the (very effective) deviation. We’ll see how well it works, but it’s nice to see more repercussions than a small fine and a shrug.