Resumo Este artigo analisa comparativamente o apoio dos portugueses ao sistema politico democrati... more Resumo Este artigo analisa comparativamente o apoio dos portugueses ao sistema politico democratico. Tres conclusoes fundamentais sobre o caso portugues sustentam a ideia da necessidade de reformas no sistema de representacao politica. Primeiro, ha uma forte adesao dos cidadaos aos principios basicos da democracia. Segundo, ha um forte criticismo face a classe politica, uma insatisfacao crescente com o desempenho da democracia e um elevado afastamento face ao poder. Terceiro, o perfil evolutivo e as causas do abstencionismo eleitoral indicam que nao estamos perante efeitos de normalizacao da democracia.
This article tests the economic voting hypothesis in Portugal during the three most recent first-... more This article tests the economic voting hypothesis in Portugal during the three most recent first-order elections (2002, 2005, 2009), trying to make sense of the multiplicity of choices in the Portuguese party system. We observed that positive sociotropic perceptions increase the probability to vote for the incumbent, even when we control for long-term factors of vote choice; egotropic effects are weaker. Negative economic perceptions not only lead to a higher probability to vote for the major opposition party, but, in some cases, increase the probabilities to vote for small parties or to refrain from voting. Sociotropic effects are actually quite constant in this timeframe, but their strength to explain the vote is lower than that of ideology and (before 2009) religiosity.
The present paper analyses the June 5th, 2011, parliamentary elections in Portugal, and begins by... more The present paper analyses the June 5th, 2011, parliamentary elections in Portugal, and begins by introducing the reader to the background of the 2011 national elections: the exercise of power in the XI Legislature, the economic crisis, the Bailout Agreement for Portugal, and the electoral campaign. Then, the 2011 electoral results are described and compared with previous national elections. Overall, the picture displays a strong defeat of the left that paved the way for the most neoliberal government in the Portuguese history. Voters also voted for stability: the right-wing parties declared that they were willing to cooperate (and in fact they formed a coalition government very quickly), whereas the left-wing parties have shown in several occasions that they are unable and unwilling to cooperate. Cet article analyse les élections parlementaires portugaises du 5 juin 2011. Il en présente l’arrière-plan issu de la législature précédente, de la crise économique, du renflouement de la dette portugaise et de la campagne électorale. Il décrit ensuite les résultats électoraux en les comparant avec les élections nationales précédentes. Globalement, le scrutin se solde par une nette défaite de la gauche laissant place au gouvernement le plus néolibéral de l’histoire du Portugal. Les électeurs semblent également avoir primé la stabilité puisque les partis de droite affichèrent leur volonté de coopérer, formant rapidement une coalition gouvernementale, alors que les partis de gauche ont montré leur incapacité à coopérer entre eux.
... (d) CDU (pre-electoral coalition: 19872002) - PCP, PEV. Page 3. there were severe limitation... more ... (d) CDU (pre-electoral coalition: 19872002) - PCP, PEV. Page 3. there were severe limitations to their functioning as democratic political regimes. Elections were, at best, only semi-competitive, and did not operate as a mechanism for government alternation. ...
Using data from the European Election Study 2014, this article focuses on workers’ EU political a... more Using data from the European Election Study 2014, this article focuses on workers’ EU political alignments during the Great Recession. It deals with two research questions. First, how does the attitude of (manual) workers towards the EU compare to that of the middle and upper classes in the aftermath of the Great Recession? Second, when it comes to workers’ support for the EU, are there systematic differences between countries affected by the crisis? The article finds that, on the one hand, in terms of patterns of workers’ EU political alignments, there are no systematic differences between countries affected to varying degrees by the Great Recession. On the other hand, workers still feel fundamentally detached from the EU, especially when it comes to the manual workers. However, high levels of generalised detachment from the EU are not clearly translated into preferences for Eurosceptic parties, since there are high levels of vote fragmentation.
By comparing the Baltic States with Greece, Portugal and Spain, we seek to discover whether the t... more By comparing the Baltic States with Greece, Portugal and Spain, we seek to discover whether the type of authoritarian legacy and regime transition has any effect on the way citizens think about the left-right (L-R) divide in new democracies. We argue that while the authoritarian legacy is important, the type of transition and, particularly, the kind of political alliances and party-politicization of issues during the new regime's formative years is more important. Evidence confirms our expectations, even after several cross-validating tests.
Resumo Este artigo analisa comparativamente o apoio dos portugueses ao sistema politico democrati... more Resumo Este artigo analisa comparativamente o apoio dos portugueses ao sistema politico democratico. Tres conclusoes fundamentais sobre o caso portugues sustentam a ideia da necessidade de reformas no sistema de representacao politica. Primeiro, ha uma forte adesao dos cidadaos aos principios basicos da democracia. Segundo, ha um forte criticismo face a classe politica, uma insatisfacao crescente com o desempenho da democracia e um elevado afastamento face ao poder. Terceiro, o perfil evolutivo e as causas do abstencionismo eleitoral indicam que nao estamos perante efeitos de normalizacao da democracia.
This article tests the economic voting hypothesis in Portugal during the three most recent first-... more This article tests the economic voting hypothesis in Portugal during the three most recent first-order elections (2002, 2005, 2009), trying to make sense of the multiplicity of choices in the Portuguese party system. We observed that positive sociotropic perceptions increase the probability to vote for the incumbent, even when we control for long-term factors of vote choice; egotropic effects are weaker. Negative economic perceptions not only lead to a higher probability to vote for the major opposition party, but, in some cases, increase the probabilities to vote for small parties or to refrain from voting. Sociotropic effects are actually quite constant in this timeframe, but their strength to explain the vote is lower than that of ideology and (before 2009) religiosity.
The present paper analyses the June 5th, 2011, parliamentary elections in Portugal, and begins by... more The present paper analyses the June 5th, 2011, parliamentary elections in Portugal, and begins by introducing the reader to the background of the 2011 national elections: the exercise of power in the XI Legislature, the economic crisis, the Bailout Agreement for Portugal, and the electoral campaign. Then, the 2011 electoral results are described and compared with previous national elections. Overall, the picture displays a strong defeat of the left that paved the way for the most neoliberal government in the Portuguese history. Voters also voted for stability: the right-wing parties declared that they were willing to cooperate (and in fact they formed a coalition government very quickly), whereas the left-wing parties have shown in several occasions that they are unable and unwilling to cooperate. Cet article analyse les élections parlementaires portugaises du 5 juin 2011. Il en présente l’arrière-plan issu de la législature précédente, de la crise économique, du renflouement de la dette portugaise et de la campagne électorale. Il décrit ensuite les résultats électoraux en les comparant avec les élections nationales précédentes. Globalement, le scrutin se solde par une nette défaite de la gauche laissant place au gouvernement le plus néolibéral de l’histoire du Portugal. Les électeurs semblent également avoir primé la stabilité puisque les partis de droite affichèrent leur volonté de coopérer, formant rapidement une coalition gouvernementale, alors que les partis de gauche ont montré leur incapacité à coopérer entre eux.
... (d) CDU (pre-electoral coalition: 19872002) - PCP, PEV. Page 3. there were severe limitation... more ... (d) CDU (pre-electoral coalition: 19872002) - PCP, PEV. Page 3. there were severe limitations to their functioning as democratic political regimes. Elections were, at best, only semi-competitive, and did not operate as a mechanism for government alternation. ...
Using data from the European Election Study 2014, this article focuses on workers’ EU political a... more Using data from the European Election Study 2014, this article focuses on workers’ EU political alignments during the Great Recession. It deals with two research questions. First, how does the attitude of (manual) workers towards the EU compare to that of the middle and upper classes in the aftermath of the Great Recession? Second, when it comes to workers’ support for the EU, are there systematic differences between countries affected by the crisis? The article finds that, on the one hand, in terms of patterns of workers’ EU political alignments, there are no systematic differences between countries affected to varying degrees by the Great Recession. On the other hand, workers still feel fundamentally detached from the EU, especially when it comes to the manual workers. However, high levels of generalised detachment from the EU are not clearly translated into preferences for Eurosceptic parties, since there are high levels of vote fragmentation.
By comparing the Baltic States with Greece, Portugal and Spain, we seek to discover whether the t... more By comparing the Baltic States with Greece, Portugal and Spain, we seek to discover whether the type of authoritarian legacy and regime transition has any effect on the way citizens think about the left-right (L-R) divide in new democracies. We argue that while the authoritarian legacy is important, the type of transition and, particularly, the kind of political alliances and party-politicization of issues during the new regime's formative years is more important. Evidence confirms our expectations, even after several cross-validating tests.
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