Dr. Jimmie McEver is the Program Manager for Cyber Capability Integration and Principal Scientist in the Cyber Operations Mission Area at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory. Dr. McEver has worked extensively on applying complex systems thinking and research to gain insight into the opportunities and challenges of emerging technologies in national security contexts, with a particular focus on capabilities for cyberspace operations. Address: United States
ABSTRACT This monograph stems from a project on long-term force planning for the Persian Gulf. Th... more ABSTRACT This monograph stems from a project on long-term force planning for the Persian Gulf. The project was commissioned by Lt General M. Esmond, who was then the Deputy Chief of Staff of the United States Air Force (USAF) for Air and Space Operations (AF/XO), and Lt General Charles Wald, commander of the 9th Air Force. The monograph presents analytical methods for capabilities-based planning of interdiction missions and models to implement the methods. It considers both the halt campaign and other counter-maneuver-force operations. Our purpose in this monograph is to help inform development of military strategies that are adaptive over time. U.S. operational capabilities for fighting a war today in the Persian Gulf region are adequate and well understood, but changes are on the horizon and uncertainties- such as anti-access strategies-loom. Planners are therefore interested in anticipating needed adaptations and in developing related hedge capabilities. No study is needed to Imow that bigger threats are more troublesome, that warning is important, that more stealth is desirable, or that advanced munitions are valuable. It is useful, however, to have quantitative methods for measuring the potential value of enhanced capabilities. Analysis can illuminate tradeoffs when it comes time to allocate resources and action priorities. The most valuable analysis sheds light on how flexible, adaptive, and robust a given capability would be across circum- stances and assumptions, and on how much of that capability would be enough. It follows that higher-level planning can benefit from exploratory analysis across the dimensions of un- certainty-so long as the analysis is fast, broad, flexible, and understandable. In what follows we develop a state-of-the-art model and methodology for such analysis. We also summarize insights from analysis to date.
Exploratory analysis uses a low-resolution model for broad survey work. High-resolution simulatio... more Exploratory analysis uses a low-resolution model for broad survey work. High-resolution simulation can sometimes be used to inform development and calibration of such a model. This paper is a case history of such an effort. The problem at issue was characterizing the effectiveness, in interdicting an invading army, of long-range precision fires. After observing puzzling results from high-resolution simulation, we
Exploratory analysis uses a low-resolution model for broad survey work. High-resolution simulatio... more Exploratory analysis uses a low-resolution model for broad survey work. High-resolution simulation can sometimes be used to inform development and calibration of such a model. This paper is a case history of such an effort. The problem at issue was characterizing the effectiveness, in interdicting an invading army, of long-range precision fires. After observing puzzling results from highresolution simulation, we developed a multiresolution personal-computer model called PEM to explain the phenomena analytically. We then studied the simulation data in depth to assess, adjust, and calibrate PEM, while at the same time discovering and accounting for various shortcomings or subtleties of the high-resolution simulation and data. The resulting PEM model clarified results and allowed us to explore a wide range of additional circumstances. It credibly predicted changes in effectiveness over two orders of magnitude, depending on situational factors involving C4ISR, maneuver patterns, missile...
No abstract is available for this document. ... Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 7.0 or higher fo... more No abstract is available for this document. ... Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 7.0 or higher for the best experience. ... This research brief describes work done for RAND Arroyo Center. ... This report is part of the RAND Corporation research brief series. RAND research ...
this report was sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD). The research was condu... more this report was sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD). The research was conducted in RAND's National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center supported by the OSD, the Joint Staff, the unified commands, and the defense agencies, Contract DASW01-95-C-0059. RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND is a registered trademark. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions or policies of its research sponsors. Copyright 1999 RAND All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. ISBN: 0-8330-2749-2 Published 1999 by RAND 1700 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1333 H St., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20005-4707 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order ...
The papers reprinted here originated in an effort to illustrate concretely how modeling and analy... more The papers reprinted here originated in an effort to illustrate concretely how modeling and analysis could and should be used to help inform efforts by the Department of Defense to understand and evaluate advanced concepts and define critical issues worthy of experimentation. A core element of our approach was the notion that analysis should use families of models and war games. It should not depend too heavily on work at any one level of resolution or with any single perspective of how to "look at " the issues. For our prototype problem we chose the challenge of interdicting and halting an invading army through the use of long-range precision fires delivered from aircraft and either sea-based or ground-based missiles. The first paper in this reprint volume describes the important concept of exploratory analysis, which seeks to gain a broad understanding of a problem domain before going into details for particular cases. For this one needs suitable low-resolution models th...
How will the network-centric operational concepts, organizational structure, and systems of this ... more How will the network-centric operational concepts, organizational structure, and systems of this new Army unit make it a more effective combat force? The authors of this report seek to understand how network-centric operations (NCO) capabilities are a source of combat power for the Army's Stryker brigade and determine how well the tenets of NCO are realized by the unit. They compared the performance of a Stryker brigade with that of a light infantry brigade in exercises and found that the new unit's NCO capabilities vastly improved performance. They determined that NCO capabilities made the unit a more effective combat force. They conclude by discussing the implications of the NCO capabilities for future Army forces.
: EXHALT is a relatively simple, uncertainty-sensitive, and optionally stochastic treatment of th... more : EXHALT is a relatively simple, uncertainty-sensitive, and optionally stochastic treatment of the halt phase of an operation in which an attacking force (Red) is advancing on an objective while its armored vehicles are being interdicted by Blue, who uses joint long-range fires in the form of Air Force, Navy, and Army air power and of Navy and Army long-range missiles.1 EXHALT is intended primarily for insight-oriented exploratory analysis. It is well suited to examining a broad scenario space (i.e., assumption space) because (1) it permits both parametric and probabilistic exploration (Davis and Hillestad, forthcoming); (2) it incorporates multiresolution modeling features, which allow users to work with more or less detail (Davis and Bigelow, 1998); and (3) it is interactive in somewhat the same way as a spreadsheet program. EXHALT is programmed in AnalyticaTM, a visual-modeling system that mns on either a Windows%-based per- sonal computer or a Macintosh computer. EXHALT is best ...
Analytical methods for capabilities-based planning of interdiction missions and models to impleme... more Analytical methods for capabilities-based planning of interdiction missions and models to implement the methods. This book discusses how U.S. capabilities for interdicting invading ground forces in the Persian Gulf can be adapted over time to maintain the ability to achieve an "early halt" or to counter maneuver forces in other plausible campaigns. The authors emphasize exploratory analysis under massive uncertainty about political and military developments and about the detailed circumstances of conflict. The book documents a specialized model used for "mission system analysis," which helps identify critical enablers of early-halt capability: deployment; immediate command-control, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance; ability to employ interdiction forces quickly; and weapon effectiveness. The United States should expect threatened or actual use of mass-casualty weapons against its forces and regional allies and enemy attempts to act quickly and with s...
This study was motivated by the results of high-resolution simulations of long-range precision fi... more This study was motivated by the results of high-resolution simulations of long-range precision fires that were employed against an invader marching through mixed terrain.
Complexity is nothing new to systems engineers and managers. The discipline of systems engineerin... more Complexity is nothing new to systems engineers and managers. The discipline of systems engineering evolved to improve our ability to deal with scale, interdependency, and complexity in systems development. Few systems engineers would doubt that complexity is increasing every year. The rate of change, the increasing interdependence and adaptability of systems, and the increasing ambitions of our clients ensure that complexity keeps expanding to the limits of our capacity to cope with it.
Development of and experimentation with ELICIT (Experimental Laboratory for Investigating Collabo... more Development of and experimentation with ELICIT (Experimental Laboratory for Investigating Collaboration, Information-sharing and Trust) is an ongoing activity of the U.S. DoD Command and Control Research Program (CCRP) within the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Networks and Information Integration (OASD/NII). A recent CCRP-sponsored effort has resulted in the design and instantiation of a configurable Sensemaking Agent to enable agent-based simulation experiments to investigate the effects of agent personality on team behavior and performance. Agentbased ELICIT (abELICIT) models multiple stages of information processing and collaboration behavior undertaken as the agents share, receive, and integrate information elements to determine attributes (who, what, when, where) of a pending attack. The agent instantiation includes modeling of the agent’s situational awareness. This paper will discuss specifics of the agent instantiation and provide suggestions for how the ag...
: While Joint network enabled operations promise the DoD benefits in terms of improved force agil... more : While Joint network enabled operations promise the DoD benefits in terms of improved force agility and effectiveness, these also pose significant challenges for decision makers faced with the job of identifying major gaps and the potential contribution of investment alternatives. Traditional analysis methods based on information exchange requirements have been found to be resource intensive, time consuming, and often limited by the experience of the supporting subject matter experts who are unable to anticipate either the situations that might arise or the manner in which new capabilities and business processes might evolve over time. This paper proposes a new but complementary approach for estimating future demand for network capability based on the premise that aggregate demand for network capability is driven by trends in communication devices used to access the network. The paper describes the Quantitative Capabilities Delivery Increments (QCDI) demand model developed to meet ...
ABSTRACT This monograph stems from a project on long-term force planning for the Persian Gulf. Th... more ABSTRACT This monograph stems from a project on long-term force planning for the Persian Gulf. The project was commissioned by Lt General M. Esmond, who was then the Deputy Chief of Staff of the United States Air Force (USAF) for Air and Space Operations (AF/XO), and Lt General Charles Wald, commander of the 9th Air Force. The monograph presents analytical methods for capabilities-based planning of interdiction missions and models to implement the methods. It considers both the halt campaign and other counter-maneuver-force operations. Our purpose in this monograph is to help inform development of military strategies that are adaptive over time. U.S. operational capabilities for fighting a war today in the Persian Gulf region are adequate and well understood, but changes are on the horizon and uncertainties- such as anti-access strategies-loom. Planners are therefore interested in anticipating needed adaptations and in developing related hedge capabilities. No study is needed to Imow that bigger threats are more troublesome, that warning is important, that more stealth is desirable, or that advanced munitions are valuable. It is useful, however, to have quantitative methods for measuring the potential value of enhanced capabilities. Analysis can illuminate tradeoffs when it comes time to allocate resources and action priorities. The most valuable analysis sheds light on how flexible, adaptive, and robust a given capability would be across circum- stances and assumptions, and on how much of that capability would be enough. It follows that higher-level planning can benefit from exploratory analysis across the dimensions of un- certainty-so long as the analysis is fast, broad, flexible, and understandable. In what follows we develop a state-of-the-art model and methodology for such analysis. We also summarize insights from analysis to date.
Exploratory analysis uses a low-resolution model for broad survey work. High-resolution simulatio... more Exploratory analysis uses a low-resolution model for broad survey work. High-resolution simulation can sometimes be used to inform development and calibration of such a model. This paper is a case history of such an effort. The problem at issue was characterizing the effectiveness, in interdicting an invading army, of long-range precision fires. After observing puzzling results from high-resolution simulation, we
Exploratory analysis uses a low-resolution model for broad survey work. High-resolution simulatio... more Exploratory analysis uses a low-resolution model for broad survey work. High-resolution simulation can sometimes be used to inform development and calibration of such a model. This paper is a case history of such an effort. The problem at issue was characterizing the effectiveness, in interdicting an invading army, of long-range precision fires. After observing puzzling results from highresolution simulation, we developed a multiresolution personal-computer model called PEM to explain the phenomena analytically. We then studied the simulation data in depth to assess, adjust, and calibrate PEM, while at the same time discovering and accounting for various shortcomings or subtleties of the high-resolution simulation and data. The resulting PEM model clarified results and allowed us to explore a wide range of additional circumstances. It credibly predicted changes in effectiveness over two orders of magnitude, depending on situational factors involving C4ISR, maneuver patterns, missile...
No abstract is available for this document. ... Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 7.0 or higher fo... more No abstract is available for this document. ... Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 7.0 or higher for the best experience. ... This research brief describes work done for RAND Arroyo Center. ... This report is part of the RAND Corporation research brief series. RAND research ...
this report was sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD). The research was condu... more this report was sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD). The research was conducted in RAND's National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center supported by the OSD, the Joint Staff, the unified commands, and the defense agencies, Contract DASW01-95-C-0059. RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND is a registered trademark. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions or policies of its research sponsors. Copyright 1999 RAND All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. ISBN: 0-8330-2749-2 Published 1999 by RAND 1700 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1333 H St., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20005-4707 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order ...
The papers reprinted here originated in an effort to illustrate concretely how modeling and analy... more The papers reprinted here originated in an effort to illustrate concretely how modeling and analysis could and should be used to help inform efforts by the Department of Defense to understand and evaluate advanced concepts and define critical issues worthy of experimentation. A core element of our approach was the notion that analysis should use families of models and war games. It should not depend too heavily on work at any one level of resolution or with any single perspective of how to "look at " the issues. For our prototype problem we chose the challenge of interdicting and halting an invading army through the use of long-range precision fires delivered from aircraft and either sea-based or ground-based missiles. The first paper in this reprint volume describes the important concept of exploratory analysis, which seeks to gain a broad understanding of a problem domain before going into details for particular cases. For this one needs suitable low-resolution models th...
How will the network-centric operational concepts, organizational structure, and systems of this ... more How will the network-centric operational concepts, organizational structure, and systems of this new Army unit make it a more effective combat force? The authors of this report seek to understand how network-centric operations (NCO) capabilities are a source of combat power for the Army's Stryker brigade and determine how well the tenets of NCO are realized by the unit. They compared the performance of a Stryker brigade with that of a light infantry brigade in exercises and found that the new unit's NCO capabilities vastly improved performance. They determined that NCO capabilities made the unit a more effective combat force. They conclude by discussing the implications of the NCO capabilities for future Army forces.
: EXHALT is a relatively simple, uncertainty-sensitive, and optionally stochastic treatment of th... more : EXHALT is a relatively simple, uncertainty-sensitive, and optionally stochastic treatment of the halt phase of an operation in which an attacking force (Red) is advancing on an objective while its armored vehicles are being interdicted by Blue, who uses joint long-range fires in the form of Air Force, Navy, and Army air power and of Navy and Army long-range missiles.1 EXHALT is intended primarily for insight-oriented exploratory analysis. It is well suited to examining a broad scenario space (i.e., assumption space) because (1) it permits both parametric and probabilistic exploration (Davis and Hillestad, forthcoming); (2) it incorporates multiresolution modeling features, which allow users to work with more or less detail (Davis and Bigelow, 1998); and (3) it is interactive in somewhat the same way as a spreadsheet program. EXHALT is programmed in AnalyticaTM, a visual-modeling system that mns on either a Windows%-based per- sonal computer or a Macintosh computer. EXHALT is best ...
Analytical methods for capabilities-based planning of interdiction missions and models to impleme... more Analytical methods for capabilities-based planning of interdiction missions and models to implement the methods. This book discusses how U.S. capabilities for interdicting invading ground forces in the Persian Gulf can be adapted over time to maintain the ability to achieve an "early halt" or to counter maneuver forces in other plausible campaigns. The authors emphasize exploratory analysis under massive uncertainty about political and military developments and about the detailed circumstances of conflict. The book documents a specialized model used for "mission system analysis," which helps identify critical enablers of early-halt capability: deployment; immediate command-control, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance; ability to employ interdiction forces quickly; and weapon effectiveness. The United States should expect threatened or actual use of mass-casualty weapons against its forces and regional allies and enemy attempts to act quickly and with s...
This study was motivated by the results of high-resolution simulations of long-range precision fi... more This study was motivated by the results of high-resolution simulations of long-range precision fires that were employed against an invader marching through mixed terrain.
Complexity is nothing new to systems engineers and managers. The discipline of systems engineerin... more Complexity is nothing new to systems engineers and managers. The discipline of systems engineering evolved to improve our ability to deal with scale, interdependency, and complexity in systems development. Few systems engineers would doubt that complexity is increasing every year. The rate of change, the increasing interdependence and adaptability of systems, and the increasing ambitions of our clients ensure that complexity keeps expanding to the limits of our capacity to cope with it.
Development of and experimentation with ELICIT (Experimental Laboratory for Investigating Collabo... more Development of and experimentation with ELICIT (Experimental Laboratory for Investigating Collaboration, Information-sharing and Trust) is an ongoing activity of the U.S. DoD Command and Control Research Program (CCRP) within the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Networks and Information Integration (OASD/NII). A recent CCRP-sponsored effort has resulted in the design and instantiation of a configurable Sensemaking Agent to enable agent-based simulation experiments to investigate the effects of agent personality on team behavior and performance. Agentbased ELICIT (abELICIT) models multiple stages of information processing and collaboration behavior undertaken as the agents share, receive, and integrate information elements to determine attributes (who, what, when, where) of a pending attack. The agent instantiation includes modeling of the agent’s situational awareness. This paper will discuss specifics of the agent instantiation and provide suggestions for how the ag...
: While Joint network enabled operations promise the DoD benefits in terms of improved force agil... more : While Joint network enabled operations promise the DoD benefits in terms of improved force agility and effectiveness, these also pose significant challenges for decision makers faced with the job of identifying major gaps and the potential contribution of investment alternatives. Traditional analysis methods based on information exchange requirements have been found to be resource intensive, time consuming, and often limited by the experience of the supporting subject matter experts who are unable to anticipate either the situations that might arise or the manner in which new capabilities and business processes might evolve over time. This paper proposes a new but complementary approach for estimating future demand for network capability based on the premise that aggregate demand for network capability is driven by trends in communication devices used to access the network. The paper describes the Quantitative Capabilities Delivery Increments (QCDI) demand model developed to meet ...
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