Abstract
The sunspot number (SSN) is an important – albeit nuanced – parameter that can be used as an indirect measure of solar activity. Predictions of upcoming active intervals, including the peak and timing of solar maximum, can have important implications for space-weather planning. Forecasts for the strength of Solar Cycle 25 have varied considerably, from being very weak to one of the strongest cycles in recorded history. In this study, we develop a novel quantile-based superposed-epoch analysis that currently predicts that Solar Cycle 25 will be very modest (within the lowest 25th percentile of all numbered cycles), with a monthly averaged (13-month average) peak of ≈ 130 (110) likely occurring in December 2024. We validate the model by performing retrospective forecasts (hindcasts) for the previous 24 cycles, finding that it outperforms the baseline (reference) model (the “average cycle”) 75% of the time.
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Data Availability
All data analysed in this study can be downloaded from www.sidc.be/silso/datafiles. However, for convenience, and to the extent that these data may change, we are also making the data available with the source code at the following GitHub repository: github.com/predsci/QSEA-ssn-prediction.
Code Availability
All code necessary to reproduce the figures and analysis presented here is being made available through the following GitHub repository: github.com/predsci/QSEA-ssn-prediction.
Change history
17 June 2023
The original online version of this article was revised to incorporate the editor’s correction that were accidentally missed before online publication.
15 June 2023
A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-023-02181-y
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Funding
The author gratefully acknowledges support from NASA (80NSSC18K0100, NNX16AG86G, 80NSSC18K1129, 80NSSC18K0101, 80NSSC20K1285, 80NSSC18K1201, and NNN06AA01C), NOAA (NA18NWS4680081), and the US Air Force (FA9550-15-C-0001).
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P. Riley conceived of the study, performed all analyses, and wrote and reviewed the manuscript.
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The original online version of this article was revised to incorporate the editor’s correction that were accidentally missed before online publication.
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Riley, P. On the Strength and Duration of Solar Cycle 25: A Novel Quantile-Based Superposed-Epoch Analysis. Sol Phys 298, 66 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-023-02165-y
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-023-02165-y