Abstract
Although living organisms are affected by many interrelated and unidentified variables, this complexity does not automatically impose a fundamental limitation on statistical inference. Nor need one invoke such complexity as an explanation of the “Truth Wears Off” or “decline” effect; similar “decline” effects occur with far simpler systems studied in physics. Selective reporting and publication bias, and scientists’ biases in favor of reporting eye-catching results (in general) or conforming to others’ results (in physics) better explain this feature of the “Truth Wears Off” effect than Rabin’s suggested limitation on statistical inference.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Fanelli, D.: How many scientists fabricate and falsify research? A systematic review and meta-analysis of survey data. PLoS ONE 4, e5738 (2009)
Glymour, C., Scheines, R.: Causal modeling with the TETRAD program. Synthese 68, 37–63 (1986)
Glymour, C.: What went wrong? Reflections on science by observation and The Bell Curve. Philos. Sci. 65, 1–32 (1998)
Henrion, M., Fischhoff, B.: Assessing uncertainty in physical constants. Am. J. Phys. 54, 791–798 (1986)
John, L.K., Loewenstein, G., Prelec, D.: Measuring the prevalence of questionable research practices with incentives for truth telling. Psychol. Sci. 23, 524–532 (2012)
Landsheer, J.A.: The specification of causal models with Tetrad IV: a review. Struct. Equ. Model. 17, 703–711 (2010)
Lehrer, J.: The truth wears off. The New Yorker, Annals of Science, December 13, 52 (2010)
Massart, P.: The tight constant in the Dvoretzky-Kiefer-Wolfowitz inequality. Ann. Probab. 18, 1269–1283 (1990)
Nichols, B.: Does the truth wear off in physics? In: Process Revolution. http://billnichols.wordpress.com/2011/01/18/does-the-truth-wear-off-in-physics/ (2011). Cited 10 December 2011
Rabin, Y.: Fundamental limitation on applicability of statistical methods to study of living organisms and other complex systems. J. Stat. Phys. 144, 213–216 (2011)
Spirtes, P., Glymour, C., Scheines, R.: Causation, Prediction, and Search, 2nd edn. MIT Press, Cambridge (2001)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Thomas, D.M. A Not-So-Fundamental Limitation on Studying Complex Systems with Statistics: Comment on Rabin (2011). J Stat Phys 149, 1168–1171 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10955-012-0647-y
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10955-012-0647-y