Abstract
Runoff at the three time scales (non-flooding season, flooding season and annual period) was simulated and tested from 1958 to 2005 at Tangnaihai (Yellow River Source Region: YeSR), Zhimenda (Yangtze River Source Region: YaSR) and Changdu (Lancang River Source Region: LcSR) by hydrological modeling, trend detection and comparative analysis. Also, future runoff variations from 2010 to 2039 at the three outlets were analyzed in A1B and B1 scenarios of CSIRO and NCAR climate model and the impact of climate change was tested. The results showed that the annual and non-flooding season runoff decreased significantly in YeSR, which decreased the water discharge to the midstream and downstream of the Yellow River, and intensified the water shortage in the Yellow River Basin, but the other two regions were not statistically significant in the last 48 years. Compared with the runoff in baseline (1990s), the runoff in YeSR would decrease in the following 30 years (2010–2039), especially in the non-flooding season. Thus the water shortage in the midstream and downstream of the Yellow River Basin would be serious continuously. The runoff in YaSR would increase, especially in the flooding season, thus the flood control situation would be severe. The runoff in LcSR would also be greater than the current runoff, and the annual and flooding season runoff would not change significantly, while the runoff variation in the non-flooding season is uncertain. It would increase significantly in the B1 scenario of CSIRO model but decrease significantly in B1 scenario of NCAR model. Furthermore, the most sensitive region to climate change is YaSR, followed by YeSR and LcSR.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Arnold J G, Williams J R, Nicks A D et al., 1990. SWRRB: A Basin Scale Simulation Model for Soil and Water Resources Management. Texas A&M Univ. Press, College Station, TX.
Cao Jianting, Qin Dahe, Luo Yong et al., 2007. Discharge changes of the Yangtze River in source area during 1956–2000. Advances in Water Science, 18(1): 29–33. (in Chinese)
Che Qian, 2006. Distributed hydrological simulation using SWAT in Yellow River Source Region [D]. Lanzhou: Lanzhou University. (in Chinese)
Chen Liqun, Liu Changming, 2007. Influence of climate and land-cover change on runoff of the source regions of Yellow River. China Environmental Science, 27(4): 559–565. (in Chinese)
Dong Suocheng, Zhou Changjin, Wang Haiying, 2002. Ecological crisis and countermeasures of the Three Rivers’ Headstream Region. Journal of Natural Resources, 17(6): 713–720. (in Chinese)
Fan Jiangwen, Shao Quanqin, Liu Jiyuan et al., 2010. Dynamic changes of grassland yield in Three River Headwater Region from 1988 to 2005. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 18(1): 5–10. (in Chinese)
Guo Xiaoyin, 2002. Remote sensing estimation of evapotranspiration in the Heihe river basin [D]. Lanzhou: Cold and Arid Regions Environment and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences. (in Chinese)
Hao Zhenchun, Wang Jiahu, Li Li et al., 2006. Impact of climate change on runoff in source region of Yellow River. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 28(1): 1–7. (in Chinese)
Huang Qinghua, Zhang Wanchang, 2004. Improvement and application of GIS-based distributed SWAT hydrological modeling on high altitude, cold, semi-arid catchment of Heihe River Basin, China. Journal of Nanjing Forestry University (Natural Sciences Edition): 28(2): 22–26. (in Chinese)
Li Daofeng, Tian Ying, Liu Changming et al., 2004. Impact of land-cover and climate changes on runoff of the source regions of the Yellow River. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 14(3): 330–338.
Li Lin, Li Fengxia, Guo Anhong et al., 2006. Study on the climate change trend and its catastrophe over “Sanjiangyuan” region in recent 43 years. Journal of Natural Resources, 21(1): 79–85. (in Chinese)
Li Lin, Shen Hongyan, Dai Sheng et al., 2011. Response to climate change and prediction of runoff in the source region of Yellow River. Acta Geographica Sinica, 66(9): 1261–1269. (in Chinese)
Li Lin, Zhu Xinde, Zhou Lusheng et al., 2004. Climatic changes over headwater of the Three-River-Area and Its effect on ecological environment. Meteorological Monthly, 30(8): 18–21. (in Chinese)
Liu Changming, Li Daofeng, Tian Ying et al., 2003. An application study of DEM based distributed hydrological model on macro-scale watershed. Progress in Geography, 22(5): 437–445. (in Chinese)
Mann HB 1945. Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica, 13(3): 245–259.
Neitsch S L, Arnold J G, Kiniry J R et al., 2002. Soil and Water Assessment Tool Theoretical Documentation Version 2000. Texas Water Resources Institute, College Station, Texas.
Ouyang W, Skidmore A K, Toxopeus A G et al., 2010. Long-term vegetation landscape pattern with non point source nutrient pollution in upper stream of Yellow River basin. Journal of Hydrology, 389(3/4): 373–380.
Qian S, Fu Y, Pan F F, 2010. Climate change tendency and grassland vegetation response during the growth season in Three-River Source Region. Science China (Earth Sciences), 53(10): 1506–1512.
Tang Hongyu, Yang Xiaodan, Wang Xijuan et al., 2007. Analyses of precipitation change in the source regions of Three Rivers during 1956–2004. Plateau Meteorology, 26(1): 47–54. (in Chinese)
Wang Genxu, Li Qi, Chen Guodong et al., 2001. Climate change and its impact on the eco-environment in the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers in recent 40 years. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 23(4): 346–352. (in Chinese)
Wang Zhonggen, Liu Changming, Huang Youbo, 2003. The theory of SWAT model and its application in Heihe Basin. Progress in Geography, 22(1): 79–86. (in Chinese)
Xiao Tong, Liu Jiyuan, Shao Quanqin, 2009. A simulation on changes in vegetation productivity in “Three River Sources” Nature Reserve, Qinghai Province over past 20 years. Journal of Geo-information Science, 11(5): 557–565. (in Chinese)
Xu Yinlong, Zhang Yinxian, Lin Wantao et al., 2007. Analyses on the climate change scenarios over the Three Rivers’ Headstream Region in China. Climatic and Environmental Research, 12(5): 667–675. (in Chinese)
Xu Z X, Zhao F F, Li J Y, 2009. Response of streamflow to climate change in the headwater catchment of the Yellow River Basin. Quaternary International, 208: 62–75.
Zhang Shifeng, Hua Dong, Meng Xiujing et al., 2011. Climate change and its driving effect on the runoff in the “Three-River Headwaters” Region. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 21(6): 963–978.
Zhang Y Y, Xia J, Shao Q X et al., 2011. Water quantity and quality simulation by improved SWAT in highly regulated Huai River Basin of China. Stochastic Environmental Research & Risk Assessment, doi: 10.1007/s00477-011-0546-9.
Zhang Y Y, Zhang S F, Xia J et al., 2012. Temporal and spatial variation of the main water balance components in the Three Rivers Source Region, China from 1960 to 2000. Environmental Earth Sciences, doi: 10.1007/s12665-012-1800-2.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Foundation: The National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program), No.2012CB955304; No.2009CB421403
Author: Zhang Yongyong (1981–), Ph.D, specialized in hydrological and environment modeling.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Zhang, Y., Zhang, S., Zhai, X. et al. Runoff variation and its response to climate change in the Three Rivers Source Region. J. Geogr. Sci. 22, 781–794 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-012-0963-9
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-012-0963-9