Jeffrey Arnold
Oakland, California, United States
788 followers
500+ connections
Activity
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I'm #hiring senior data scientists to join the Customer Incentives team at Instacart! This is an exciting opportunity to work on one of Instacart's…
I'm #hiring senior data scientists to join the Customer Incentives team at Instacart! This is an exciting opportunity to work on one of Instacart's…
Liked by Jeffrey Arnold
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It was a treat to have Evan Miller from Anthropic give the inaugural talk in Klaviyo's new Data Science Seminar series! Evan gave a clear overview of…
It was a treat to have Evan Miller from Anthropic give the inaugural talk in Klaviyo's new Data Science Seminar series! Evan gave a clear overview of…
Liked by Jeffrey Arnold
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I'm excited to share that I've recently joined the Data Science team at Anthropic. After over five years at Instacart, my decision to leave was…
I'm excited to share that I've recently joined the Data Science team at Anthropic. After over five years at Instacart, my decision to leave was…
Liked by Jeffrey Arnold
Experience
Education
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University of Rochester
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- Developed a Bayesian method to identify change-points in time series and implemented it in Stan.
- Combined financial market, news, and casualty data to estimate the effect of battles on expectations of war outcome and duration using Bayesian time series and measurement models.
- Showed that contemporary financial markets assigned a 5-15% of the initiation of the onset of the American Civil War, a result that has implications for the unpredictability of war.
- Estimated the fame of…- Developed a Bayesian method to identify change-points in time series and implemented it in Stan.
- Combined financial market, news, and casualty data to estimate the effect of battles on expectations of war outcome and duration using Bayesian time series and measurement models.
- Showed that contemporary financial markets assigned a 5-15% of the initiation of the onset of the American Civil War, a result that has implications for the unpredictability of war.
- Estimated the fame of political leaders using Wikipedia articles in 10 languages using a factor model.
- Developed a Hidden Markov Model of civil war onset and termination. -
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Activities and Societies: John Sloan Dickey Center War and Peace Studies Fellow (2003-2004)
cum laude; High Honors in Economics, given to 4 students; James O. Freedman Presidential Scholar (2004); James O. Freedman Presidential Research Assistant (2002-2003)
Licenses & Certifications
Publications
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Covering the Campaign: News, Elections, and theInformation Environment in Emerging Democracies
SocArXiV
Scholars debate whether and how campaigns influence political behavior and electoral outcomes. No consistent theoretical framework, however, defines, measures, and analyzes election-related content from within the media's coverage, particularly in emerging democracies. We apply machine learning techniques on texts from nearly 100,000 news articles during South Africa's 2014 election, and use a theoretically-informed classification of election coverage to demonstrate how the conceptual scope of…
Scholars debate whether and how campaigns influence political behavior and electoral outcomes. No consistent theoretical framework, however, defines, measures, and analyzes election-related content from within the media's coverage, particularly in emerging democracies. We apply machine learning techniques on texts from nearly 100,000 news articles during South Africa's 2014 election, and use a theoretically-informed classification of election coverage to demonstrate how the conceptual scope of elections shapes voters' campaign information environment. Our results produce distinct representations of political actors and institutions during elections: a narrow classification provides heuristics cuing race, party, and incumbent performance; a broad definition reflects policy and service concerns parties debated. Topic models and word vectors show that campaign content clusters with parties and their associations with government performance and policies, but candidates vary in how much distinct coverage they obtain on valence issues. We provide methods and evidence to replicably study electoral news coverage across developing countries.
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Fast, Consistent Tokenization of Natural Language Text
Journal of Statistical Software
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Changes in the Timing Distribution of Fedwire Funds Transfers
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review
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The topology of interbank payment flows
Physica A
We explore the network topology of the interbank payments transferred between commercial banks over the Fedwire® Funds Service. We find that the network has both a low average path length and low connectivity. The network includes a tightly connected core of banks to which most other banks connect. The degree distribution is scale free over a substantial range. We find that the properties of the network changed considerably in the immediate aftermath of the events of September 11, 2001.
Other authorsSee publication
Patents
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Assigning variants of content to users while maintaining a stable experimental population
Issued US11314836B1
A variation testing system environment for performing variation testing of web pages and applications is disclosed. The variation testing system applies a weighted consistent hash function to user attributes of users to assign the users to a variant of a web page that is undergoing experimentation. The usage of the weighted consistent hash function allows for a stable experimental population.
Other inventorsSee patent
Projects
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Wikidit: Recommends edits to improve Wikipedia articles
A four-week data science project completed as part of the Insight Data Science Fellowship.
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R for Data Science: Exercise Solutions
- Present
Complete exercise solutions to "R for Data Science" by Grolemund and Wickham.
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pollstR
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Client for the HuffPost Pollster API, which provides access to U.S. polls on elections and political opinion.
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ggthemes
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Some extra themes, geoms, and scales for 'ggplot2'. Provides 'ggplot2' themes and scales that replicate the look of plots by Edward Tufte, Stephen Few, 'Fivethirtyeight', 'The Economist', 'Stata', 'Excel', and 'The Wall Street Journal', among others. Provides 'geoms' for Tufte's box plot and range frame.
Honors & Awards
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Sproull Fellowship
University of Rochester
Two year fellowship awarded to 12 graduate students at the University of Rochester.
More activity by Jeffrey
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Last week, scientists at Meta dropped a new blog post on how to do regression adjustment at Meta-scale. The article punchline is five…
Last week, scientists at Meta dropped a new blog post on how to do regression adjustment at Meta-scale. The article punchline is five…
Liked by Jeffrey Arnold
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Very excited about Aleix's new book! I had a chance to review an early version of it and love the content. Highly recommend checking it out.
Very excited about Aleix's new book! I had a chance to review an early version of it and love the content. Highly recommend checking it out.
Liked by Jeffrey Arnold
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This year, we're publishing a print magazine edition of Outperform with 150+ pages of some of the best experimentation content in the world. Want…
This year, we're publishing a print magazine edition of Outperform with 150+ pages of some of the best experimentation content in the world. Want…
Liked by Jeffrey Arnold
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A lot of data science projects start with prediction and, after some pain, shift toward causality. Early in my career, a stakeholder asked me to…
A lot of data science projects start with prediction and, after some pain, shift toward causality. Early in my career, a stakeholder asked me to…
Liked by Jeffrey Arnold
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