Jeffrey Arnold

Jeffrey Arnold

Oakland, California, United States
788 followers 500+ connections

Activity

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Experience

  • Discord Graphic

    Discord

    San Francisco Bay Area

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    Oakland, California, United States

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    San Francisco, California, United States

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    San Francisco, California, United States

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    San Francisco, California, United States

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    San Francisco Bay Area

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    Greater Seattle Area

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    Seattle, WA

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    Seattle, WA

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    Greater Atlanta Area

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    Greater Atlanta Area

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    Greater New York City Area

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    Greater New York City Area

Education

  • University of Rochester Graphic

    University of Rochester

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    - Developed a Bayesian method to identify change-points in time series and implemented it in Stan.
    - Combined financial market, news, and casualty data to estimate the effect of battles on expectations of war outcome and duration using Bayesian time series and measurement models.
    - Showed that contemporary financial markets assigned a 5-15% of the initiation of the onset of the American Civil War, a result that has implications for the unpredictability of war.
    - Estimated the fame of…

    - Developed a Bayesian method to identify change-points in time series and implemented it in Stan.
    - Combined financial market, news, and casualty data to estimate the effect of battles on expectations of war outcome and duration using Bayesian time series and measurement models.
    - Showed that contemporary financial markets assigned a 5-15% of the initiation of the onset of the American Civil War, a result that has implications for the unpredictability of war.
    - Estimated the fame of political leaders using Wikipedia articles in 10 languages using a factor model.
    - Developed a Hidden Markov Model of civil war onset and termination.

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    Activities and Societies: John Sloan Dickey Center War and Peace Studies Fellow (2003-2004)

    cum laude; High Honors in Economics, given to 4 students; James O. Freedman Presidential Scholar (2004); James O. Freedman Presidential Research Assistant (2002-2003)

Licenses & Certifications

Publications

  • Covering the Campaign: News, Elections, and theInformation Environment in Emerging Democracies

    SocArXiV

    Scholars debate whether and how campaigns influence political behavior and electoral outcomes. No consistent theoretical framework, however, defines, measures, and analyzes election-related content from within the media's coverage, particularly in emerging democracies. We apply machine learning techniques on texts from nearly 100,000 news articles during South Africa's 2014 election, and use a theoretically-informed classification of election coverage to demonstrate how the conceptual scope of…

    Scholars debate whether and how campaigns influence political behavior and electoral outcomes. No consistent theoretical framework, however, defines, measures, and analyzes election-related content from within the media's coverage, particularly in emerging democracies. We apply machine learning techniques on texts from nearly 100,000 news articles during South Africa's 2014 election, and use a theoretically-informed classification of election coverage to demonstrate how the conceptual scope of elections shapes voters' campaign information environment. Our results produce distinct representations of political actors and institutions during elections: a narrow classification provides heuristics cuing race, party, and incumbent performance; a broad definition reflects policy and service concerns parties debated. Topic models and word vectors show that campaign content clusters with parties and their associations with government performance and policies, but candidates vary in how much distinct coverage they obtain on valence issues. We provide methods and evidence to replicably study electoral news coverage across developing countries.

    See publication
  • Changes in the Timing Distribution of Fedwire Funds Transfers

    Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review

    Other authors
    • Jamie McAndrews
    • Olivier Armantier
    See publication
  • The topology of interbank payment flows

    Physica A

    We explore the network topology of the interbank payments transferred between commercial banks over the Fedwire® Funds Service. We find that the network has both a low average path length and low connectivity. The network includes a tightly connected core of banks to which most other banks connect. The degree distribution is scale free over a substantial range. We find that the properties of the network changed considerably in the immediate aftermath of the events of September 11, 2001.

    Other authors
    See publication

Patents

  • Assigning variants of content to users while maintaining a stable experimental population

    Issued US11314836B1

    A variation testing system environment for performing variation testing of web pages and applications is disclosed. The variation testing system applies a weighted consistent hash function to user attributes of users to assign the users to a variant of a web page that is undergoing experimentation. The usage of the weighted consistent hash function allows for a stable experimental population.

    Other inventors
    See patent

Projects

Honors & Awards

  • Sproull Fellowship

    University of Rochester

    Two year fellowship awarded to 12 graduate students at the University of Rochester.

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