CentrePiece-The Magazine for Economic Performance, 2015
Every year for over half a century, the US opinion pollsters Gallup have asked Americans to say w... more Every year for over half a century, the US opinion pollsters Gallup have asked Americans to say which person they most admire. Alan Manning and Amar Shanghavi consider what their answers reveal about how public attitudes have and have not changed since the late 1940s.
This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views express... more This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. This paper assesses São Tomé and Príncipe’s monetary and exchange rate arrangements in light of the country’s monetary history and the relevant experience of comparable countries in Africa. The study highlights several structural characteristics of São Tomé and Príncipe including its very small size, high degree of openness, extensive use of foreign currencies, and inflexible product and factor markets in the consideration of an appropriate monetary and exchange regime. Firmly anchored currency arrangements, defined in this paper to include memberships in monetary unions or hard pegs, are found to be preferable to the status quo of a managed float. The pa...
This paper exploits a nearly year-long period of power rationing that took place in Colombia in 1... more This paper exploits a nearly year-long period of power rationing that took place in Colombia in 1992, to shed light on three interrelated questions. First, we show that power shortages can lead to higher fertility, causing mini baby booms. Second, we show that the increase in fertility had not been offset by having fewer children over the following 12 years. Third, we show that the fertility shock caused mothers worse socioeconomic outcomes 12 years later. Taken together, the results suggest that there are significant indirect social costs to poor public infrastructure.
This paper answers the question whether extreme power rationing can induce changes in human ferti... more This paper answers the question whether extreme power rationing can induce changes in human fertility and thus, generate “mini baby booms”. We study a period of extensive power rationing in Colombia that lasted for most of 1992 and see whether this has increased births in the subsequent year, exploiting variation from a newly constructed measure of the extent of power rationing. We find that power rationing increased the probability that a mother had a baby by 4 percent and establish that this effect is permanent as mothers who had a black out baby were not able to adjust their total long-run fertility. Exploiting this variation, we show that women who had a black-out baby find themselves in worse socio-economic conditions more than a decade later, highlighting potential social costs of unplanned motherhood.
CentrePiece-The Magazine for Economic Performance, 2015
Every year for over half a century, the US opinion pollsters Gallup have asked Americans to say w... more Every year for over half a century, the US opinion pollsters Gallup have asked Americans to say which person they most admire. Alan Manning and Amar Shanghavi consider what their answers reveal about how public attitudes have and have not changed since the late 1940s.
This paper exploits a nearly year-long period of power rationing that took place in Colombia in 1... more This paper exploits a nearly year-long period of power rationing that took place in Colombia in 1992, to shed light on three interrelated questions. First, we show that power shortages can lead to higher fertility, causing mini baby booms. Second, we show that the increase in fertility had not been offset by having fewer children over the following 12 years. Third, we show that the fertility shock caused mothers worse socioeconomic outcomes 12 years later. Taken together, the results suggest that there are significant indirect social costs to poor public infrastructure.
This thesis consists of three chapters that fall under the broad banner of applied microeconomics... more This thesis consists of three chapters that fall under the broad banner of applied microeconomics. The first chapter analyses the role of the 2008 amendment to the USA Lacey Act in combatting international trade in illegal timber. Comparing US timber imports over time and across countries and products, I show that the US timber imports fell after the introduction of the Lacey Act. I find the fall in timber imports is accompanied by a fall in illegal trade as measured by the difference between importer and exporter reported statistics. Finally, using the case of Indonesia, I provide suggestive evidence in favor of a reduction in deforestation as a result of the policy. The second chapter analyzes the effect of a year long rolling blackout in Colombia on mothers’ short and long run fertility behavior and socioeconomic outcomes. We use an extensive period of power rationing in Colombia throughout 1992 as a natural experiment and exploit exogenous spatial variation in the intensity of p...
Patterns of urbanization in Africa have been found to be different compared to the developed worl... more Patterns of urbanization in Africa have been found to be different compared to the developed world: urbanization in Africa is much more concentrated in a few large cities. This may be driven by political economy channels, which should weaken following institutional change. Using a wave of democratic transition during the 1990s we study whether urbanisation has become more evenly spread across cities in Africa. We find that following democratic transition there is significant catch-up growth in non-capital cities as measured by night lights data. We also document a significant improvement in delivery of education services in secondary cities relative to the capital city.
Since the 1940s Gallup has, every December, asked Americans about the living man and woman they m... more Since the 1940s Gallup has, every December, asked Americans about the living man and woman they most admire. This paper documents the way in which the types of people who are admired has changed and argues that the responses to this question tells us something about the way in which society has been evolving - the 65 years of data are probably the longest consistent series on social attitudes. We argue on theoretical grounds and show using empirical analysis that admiration can be linked to trust, and specifically that admiring the president is strongly related to trust in government. Using this link we can provide information on trends in trust on a consistent basis back to the late 1940s, earlier than most other data sources. Finally, the paper investigates the link between admiration and media mentions. We show that people who receive a relatively large number of mentions in newspapers in particular year and state are also more likely to be admired by people.
A rolling blackout in Colombia in the early 1990s led to a rise in unplanned births, according to... more A rolling blackout in Colombia in the early 1990s led to a rise in unplanned births, according to research by Amar Shanghavi and colleagues. What's more, young women who became mothers after the blackout had worse outcomes in later life. The impact of power outages on fertility is an important policy issue. For example, barriers of access to family planning may translate a temporary increase in fertility into a permanent increase in the population. In addition, if a woman is at a critical stage of life, say in her teens or early adulthood, having an unintended birth could damage her educational attainment, her career development and even her romantic relationships.
This paper answers the question whether extreme power rationing can induce changes in human ferti... more This paper answers the question whether extreme power rationing can induce changes in human fertility and thus, generate "mini baby booms". We study a period of extensive power rationing in Colombia that lasted for most of 1992 and see whether this has increased births in the subsequent year, exploiting variation from a newly constructed measure of the extent of power rationing. We find that power rationing increased the probability that a mother had a baby by 4 percent and establish that this effect is permanent as mothers who had a black out baby were not able to adjust their total long-run fertility. Exploiting this variation, we show that women who had a black-out baby find themselves in worse socio-economic conditions more than a decade later, highlighting potential social costs of unplanned motherhood.
CentrePiece-The Magazine for Economic Performance, 2015
Every year for over half a century, the US opinion pollsters Gallup have asked Americans to say w... more Every year for over half a century, the US opinion pollsters Gallup have asked Americans to say which person they most admire. Alan Manning and Amar Shanghavi consider what their answers reveal about how public attitudes have and have not changed since the late 1940s.
This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views express... more This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. This paper assesses São Tomé and Príncipe’s monetary and exchange rate arrangements in light of the country’s monetary history and the relevant experience of comparable countries in Africa. The study highlights several structural characteristics of São Tomé and Príncipe including its very small size, high degree of openness, extensive use of foreign currencies, and inflexible product and factor markets in the consideration of an appropriate monetary and exchange regime. Firmly anchored currency arrangements, defined in this paper to include memberships in monetary unions or hard pegs, are found to be preferable to the status quo of a managed float. The pa...
This paper exploits a nearly year-long period of power rationing that took place in Colombia in 1... more This paper exploits a nearly year-long period of power rationing that took place in Colombia in 1992, to shed light on three interrelated questions. First, we show that power shortages can lead to higher fertility, causing mini baby booms. Second, we show that the increase in fertility had not been offset by having fewer children over the following 12 years. Third, we show that the fertility shock caused mothers worse socioeconomic outcomes 12 years later. Taken together, the results suggest that there are significant indirect social costs to poor public infrastructure.
This paper answers the question whether extreme power rationing can induce changes in human ferti... more This paper answers the question whether extreme power rationing can induce changes in human fertility and thus, generate “mini baby booms”. We study a period of extensive power rationing in Colombia that lasted for most of 1992 and see whether this has increased births in the subsequent year, exploiting variation from a newly constructed measure of the extent of power rationing. We find that power rationing increased the probability that a mother had a baby by 4 percent and establish that this effect is permanent as mothers who had a black out baby were not able to adjust their total long-run fertility. Exploiting this variation, we show that women who had a black-out baby find themselves in worse socio-economic conditions more than a decade later, highlighting potential social costs of unplanned motherhood.
CentrePiece-The Magazine for Economic Performance, 2015
Every year for over half a century, the US opinion pollsters Gallup have asked Americans to say w... more Every year for over half a century, the US opinion pollsters Gallup have asked Americans to say which person they most admire. Alan Manning and Amar Shanghavi consider what their answers reveal about how public attitudes have and have not changed since the late 1940s.
This paper exploits a nearly year-long period of power rationing that took place in Colombia in 1... more This paper exploits a nearly year-long period of power rationing that took place in Colombia in 1992, to shed light on three interrelated questions. First, we show that power shortages can lead to higher fertility, causing mini baby booms. Second, we show that the increase in fertility had not been offset by having fewer children over the following 12 years. Third, we show that the fertility shock caused mothers worse socioeconomic outcomes 12 years later. Taken together, the results suggest that there are significant indirect social costs to poor public infrastructure.
This thesis consists of three chapters that fall under the broad banner of applied microeconomics... more This thesis consists of three chapters that fall under the broad banner of applied microeconomics. The first chapter analyses the role of the 2008 amendment to the USA Lacey Act in combatting international trade in illegal timber. Comparing US timber imports over time and across countries and products, I show that the US timber imports fell after the introduction of the Lacey Act. I find the fall in timber imports is accompanied by a fall in illegal trade as measured by the difference between importer and exporter reported statistics. Finally, using the case of Indonesia, I provide suggestive evidence in favor of a reduction in deforestation as a result of the policy. The second chapter analyzes the effect of a year long rolling blackout in Colombia on mothers’ short and long run fertility behavior and socioeconomic outcomes. We use an extensive period of power rationing in Colombia throughout 1992 as a natural experiment and exploit exogenous spatial variation in the intensity of p...
Patterns of urbanization in Africa have been found to be different compared to the developed worl... more Patterns of urbanization in Africa have been found to be different compared to the developed world: urbanization in Africa is much more concentrated in a few large cities. This may be driven by political economy channels, which should weaken following institutional change. Using a wave of democratic transition during the 1990s we study whether urbanisation has become more evenly spread across cities in Africa. We find that following democratic transition there is significant catch-up growth in non-capital cities as measured by night lights data. We also document a significant improvement in delivery of education services in secondary cities relative to the capital city.
Since the 1940s Gallup has, every December, asked Americans about the living man and woman they m... more Since the 1940s Gallup has, every December, asked Americans about the living man and woman they most admire. This paper documents the way in which the types of people who are admired has changed and argues that the responses to this question tells us something about the way in which society has been evolving - the 65 years of data are probably the longest consistent series on social attitudes. We argue on theoretical grounds and show using empirical analysis that admiration can be linked to trust, and specifically that admiring the president is strongly related to trust in government. Using this link we can provide information on trends in trust on a consistent basis back to the late 1940s, earlier than most other data sources. Finally, the paper investigates the link between admiration and media mentions. We show that people who receive a relatively large number of mentions in newspapers in particular year and state are also more likely to be admired by people.
A rolling blackout in Colombia in the early 1990s led to a rise in unplanned births, according to... more A rolling blackout in Colombia in the early 1990s led to a rise in unplanned births, according to research by Amar Shanghavi and colleagues. What's more, young women who became mothers after the blackout had worse outcomes in later life. The impact of power outages on fertility is an important policy issue. For example, barriers of access to family planning may translate a temporary increase in fertility into a permanent increase in the population. In addition, if a woman is at a critical stage of life, say in her teens or early adulthood, having an unintended birth could damage her educational attainment, her career development and even her romantic relationships.
This paper answers the question whether extreme power rationing can induce changes in human ferti... more This paper answers the question whether extreme power rationing can induce changes in human fertility and thus, generate "mini baby booms". We study a period of extensive power rationing in Colombia that lasted for most of 1992 and see whether this has increased births in the subsequent year, exploiting variation from a newly constructed measure of the extent of power rationing. We find that power rationing increased the probability that a mother had a baby by 4 percent and establish that this effect is permanent as mothers who had a black out baby were not able to adjust their total long-run fertility. Exploiting this variation, we show that women who had a black-out baby find themselves in worse socio-economic conditions more than a decade later, highlighting potential social costs of unplanned motherhood.
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