Papers by Mikolaj Malinowski
This article presents per capita GDP and income distribution estimates for preindustrial Poland. ... more This article presents per capita GDP and income distribution estimates for preindustrial Poland. It is based on a social table for the Voivodeship of Cracow in 1578. Our evidence indicates that income in Poland was distributed more equally than in contemporary Holland. However, the extraction rate was much higher than in the North Sea area. Furthermore, income inequality in the countryside of the Voivodeship was higher than inequality in Cracow. This can be explained by the demesne economy based on serfdom that was prevalent in agriculture. Using trends in real wages and urbanisation, we also project Polish GDP forwards and backwards in time. Our results indicate that Polish per capita GDP was below that of Western Europe as early as the fifteenth century. This gap persisted despite moderate growth of the Polish economy in the sixteenth century. In the seventeenth century, Poland impoverished and became even poorer than Asian economies for which similar estimates are available. Poland recovered slightly in the eighteenth century but continued to lag behind Western Europe.
I demonstrated that the Polish rye and labor market disintegrated in the seventeenth century afte... more I demonstrated that the Polish rye and labor market disintegrated in the seventeenth century after a period of a relative integration. I advanced evidence that the disintegration was brought about by a separation of the landlocked cities from the cities located on the Vistula, and demonstrated that the cities on the river remained integrated. This separation was probably linked to the destruction of trade infrastructure – in the form of the network of small towns – during the wars of the mid-seventeenth century. The disintegration crisis possibly coincided with segmentation of the labor market. As a result, the increase in Malthusian pressure on the segmented landlocked market was not offset by market forces. In turn, cities located off the Vistula were impoverished. Given that the majority of Poland was landlocked, the disintegration and segmentation crisis could have contributed to the country’s economic stagnation in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries.
I investigate the relation between institutions, markets, and preindustrial economic growth. In p... more I investigate the relation between institutions, markets, and preindustrial economic growth. In particular, I analyze the impact of coercive agricultural class structures on urban population growth in Poland. My main point is that the impact of the demesne economy based on serfdom on urban growth was neither inherently negative nor positive. Instead, I suggest that the effect of serfdom depended on market conditions. I propose a new mechanism that explains how higher monetary and labor duties charged by landlords to their enserfed tenant farmers could have made urban settlements more resilient to a market crisis. I find empirical support for this idea with use of new database on urban settlements.
I contribute to the debate on the timing of the Little Divergence within pre-industrial Europe. I... more I contribute to the debate on the timing of the Little Divergence within pre-industrial Europe. I add Polish real wages to the comparative framework by comparing them with the English and Italian series. I compile existing data for Poznań, Lublin, and the Polish agricultural sector. I add this information to the internationally available evidence for Cracow, Gdańsk, Warsaw, and Lviv. I demonstrate that the more processed grains, i.e., beer and bread, feature in a basket used to deflate wages, the greater the observed superiority of London over the Polish cities. I also show that Poland was characterised by the widest income gap between the urban and rural sectors. I account for income differences between sectors by weighting the income series by occupational structures. The evidence suggests that England was richer than Poland by 1500. The countries converged around 1600. Subsequently, Poland began to lag behind from the seventeenth century onwards.
In this paper I investigate commodity market integration, market efficiency and market performanc... more In this paper I investigate commodity market integration, market efficiency and market performance in preindustrial Eastern Europe. In particular, I look at the Polish rye market between 1500 and 1772. I analyse annual rye price data from seven cities. The results suggest that market conditions in Poland in the sixteenth century were relatively favourable. The market disintegrated in the seventeenth century. Afterwards, Polish markets remained relatively segmented, in contrast to many Western European countries whose markets thrived in the eighteenth century. This supports the hypothesis that even before the Industrial Revolution there was the Little Divergence in economic development between western and eastern Europe. The disintegration crisis in Poland was linked to the separation of landlocked cities from the common market. After the seventeenth century, cities located on the Vistula river enjoyed better market conditions and remained better integrated than the landlocked ones. The long-term market crisis may have resulted from the devastating warfare in the mid-seventeenth century.
This paper presents estimates of the level of per capita GDP and of the distribution of income of... more This paper presents estimates of the level of per capita GDP and of the distribution of income of preindustrial Poland. This is based on a reconstruction of a social table of the Voivodeship of Cracow for 1578. Our evidence indicates that income in Poland was distributed more equally than in contemporary Holland. However, the extraction rate in the Voivodeship was much higher than in the North Sea area. Furthermore, income inequality in the countryside of the Voivodeship was higher than inequality in Cracow. This can be linked to the demesne economy based on serfdom that was prevalent in the agricultural sector. Moreover, on the basis of trends in real wages and urbanisation levels, we project Polish GDP forwards and backwards in time. Our results indicate that by as early as the 15th century, Polish per capita GDP was below that of other Western European countries. This persisted despite a moderate growth of the Polish economy in the 16th century. Subsequently, due to a strong contraction, Poland in the 17th century became even poorer than Asian economies for which similar estimates are available. In the 18th century Poland recovered slightly but continued to lag behind the rest of Western Europe.
We investigate a link between state formation and market development in preindustrial Poland. We ... more We investigate a link between state formation and market development in preindustrial Poland. We argue that constraining executive power in the late 16th century contributed to a paralysis of Parliament in the late 17th century. The Polish republican model failed because of economic inequality within the landed nobility. The weakening of the position of the king upset the balance between the major coalitions of power. The uncontested elite used its influence to accumulate land and to gain special property rights. This process accelerated during the wars of the middle of the 17th century. The elite translated economic inequality into political dominance by becoming patrons of impoverished nobles. They influenced local representative institutions to elect their clients as delegates to Parliament in order to corrupt the only remaining central institution capable of constraining their rent-seeking practices. Political devolution limited state capacity. This resulted in coordination failures and, in turn, disintegration of the rye market. Polish rye markets remained disintegrated in the 18th century – a period of an alleged overall improvement in market conditions in Western Europe. This dissimilarity could be a reason behind the underdevelopment of contemporary Eastern Europe.
Books by Mikolaj Malinowski
Drafts by Mikolaj Malinowski
In the early modern era, most European states experienced gradual territorial consolidation and p... more In the early modern era, most European states experienced gradual territorial consolidation and political centralisation that led to greater capacity of their central governments to raise taxes and impose regulations. By analysing the activity of the Polish parliament, this article demonstrates that the increase in legal state capacity was positively associated with domestic commodity market integration. Conversely anarchy, understood as governmental inaction, was associated with a rise in exchange costs on the market. The findings suggest a crucial role of legal state capacity for long-term economic development.
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Papers by Mikolaj Malinowski
Books by Mikolaj Malinowski
Drafts by Mikolaj Malinowski