Climate change induced crop failure is becoming a more frequent phenomenon with large uncertainty... more Climate change induced crop failure is becoming a more frequent phenomenon with large uncertainty as to the degree and character of future impacts. An overwhelming number of these impacts are projected to be within the tropical belt; an already highly capital constrained region, where issues related to health, agriculture, and infrastructure are still among the many perennial problems. With such limited capital, the opportunity cost of inefficient investments is massive. Thus, it is necessary to address the uncertainty of climate change and pinpoint which adaptation strategies are optimal for the region. This study focuses on maize and bean growing smallholders in the region of Chiquimula, Guatemala. A region which, over the past two decades, has proven to be among the world's most vulnerable; as the frequency and intensity of drought has increased, the region has proven itself unable to provide sufficient disaster relief nor food aid.
While climate impact and adaptation studies are not in a short supply, the vast majority of these studies focus on a global or national scale and fail to address the farm level. The following research specifically assesses the uncertainty of climate change at the farm level. By modeling the economic impact of projected climate change and analyzing optimal adaptation strategies given economic constraints, this thesis will suggest that genotype mixes augmented with various degrees of fertilization and irrigation are the optimal strategies for smallholders in Chiquimula, Guatemala to counter the effects of climate change. This study will draw on historical weather data and down-scaled General Circulation Model projections to simulate the meteorological effects of climate change in the region. The projections will be considered given the IPCC A2 scenario, as well as split between El Ni\~{n}o and La Ni\~{n}a years. This data will then be used to simulate the effects on maize and bean yields using DSSAT to determine the adaptation impact and principle constraints. Next, a linear programming model will be employed to determine optimal irrigation, fertilizer, genotype, and intercropping combinations given the region's economic constraints.
Despite Canada’s position as both a developed nation and a leader in human rights, the nation has... more Despite Canada’s position as both a developed nation and a leader in human rights, the nation has failed to develop a domestic social food policy. Not only does Canada stand out among its counterparts as the only western nation without a federally-funded food policy, but the nation is experiencing growing food insecurity. This paper argues that it is not for lack of need or will by citizens, but that the guiding political ideology is deaf to such demands. This is due to a paradigm shift which began during the Mulroney period and directed Canada's political agenda away from social support towards a supply side approach in sync with the neoliberal geopolitical climate.
Climate change induced crop failure is becoming a more frequent phenomenon with large uncertainty... more Climate change induced crop failure is becoming a more frequent phenomenon with large uncertainty as to the degree and character of future impacts. An overwhelming number of these impacts are projected to be within the tropical belt; an already highly capital constrained region, where issues related to health, agriculture, and infrastructure are still among the many perennial problems. With such limited capital, the opportunity cost of inefficient investments is massive. Thus, it is necessary to address the uncertainty of climate change and pinpoint which adaptation strategies are optimal for the region. This study focuses on maize and bean growing smallholders in the region of Chiquimula, Guatemala. A region which, over the past two decades, has proven to be among the world's most vulnerable; as the frequency and intensity of drought has increased, the region has proven itself unable to provide sufficient disaster relief nor food aid.
While climate impact and adaptation studies are not in a short supply, the vast majority of these studies focus on a global or national scale and fail to address the farm level. The following research specifically assesses the uncertainty of climate change at the farm level. By modeling the economic impact of projected climate change and analyzing optimal adaptation strategies given economic constraints, this thesis will suggest that genotype mixes augmented with various degrees of fertilization and irrigation are the optimal strategies for smallholders in Chiquimula, Guatemala to counter the effects of climate change. This study will draw on historical weather data and down-scaled General Circulation Model projections to simulate the meteorological effects of climate change in the region. The projections will be considered given the IPCC A2 scenario, as well as split between El Ni\~{n}o and La Ni\~{n}a years. This data will then be used to simulate the effects on maize and bean yields using DSSAT to determine the adaptation impact and principle constraints. Next, a linear programming model will be employed to determine optimal irrigation, fertilizer, genotype, and intercropping combinations given the region's economic constraints.
Despite Canada’s position as both a developed nation and a leader in human rights, the nation has... more Despite Canada’s position as both a developed nation and a leader in human rights, the nation has failed to develop a domestic social food policy. Not only does Canada stand out among its counterparts as the only western nation without a federally-funded food policy, but the nation is experiencing growing food insecurity. This paper argues that it is not for lack of need or will by citizens, but that the guiding political ideology is deaf to such demands. This is due to a paradigm shift which began during the Mulroney period and directed Canada's political agenda away from social support towards a supply side approach in sync with the neoliberal geopolitical climate.
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While climate impact and adaptation studies are not in a short supply, the vast majority of these studies focus on a global or national scale and fail to address the farm level. The following research specifically assesses the uncertainty of climate change at the farm level. By modeling the economic impact of projected climate change and analyzing optimal adaptation strategies given economic constraints, this thesis will suggest that genotype mixes augmented with various degrees of fertilization and irrigation are the optimal strategies for smallholders in Chiquimula, Guatemala to counter the effects of climate change. This study will draw on historical weather data and down-scaled General Circulation Model projections to simulate the meteorological effects of climate change in the region. The projections will be considered given the IPCC A2 scenario, as well as split between El Ni\~{n}o and La Ni\~{n}a years. This data will then be used to simulate the effects on maize and bean yields using DSSAT to determine the adaptation impact and principle constraints. Next, a linear programming model will be employed to determine optimal irrigation, fertilizer, genotype, and intercropping combinations given the region's economic constraints.
While climate impact and adaptation studies are not in a short supply, the vast majority of these studies focus on a global or national scale and fail to address the farm level. The following research specifically assesses the uncertainty of climate change at the farm level. By modeling the economic impact of projected climate change and analyzing optimal adaptation strategies given economic constraints, this thesis will suggest that genotype mixes augmented with various degrees of fertilization and irrigation are the optimal strategies for smallholders in Chiquimula, Guatemala to counter the effects of climate change. This study will draw on historical weather data and down-scaled General Circulation Model projections to simulate the meteorological effects of climate change in the region. The projections will be considered given the IPCC A2 scenario, as well as split between El Ni\~{n}o and La Ni\~{n}a years. This data will then be used to simulate the effects on maize and bean yields using DSSAT to determine the adaptation impact and principle constraints. Next, a linear programming model will be employed to determine optimal irrigation, fertilizer, genotype, and intercropping combinations given the region's economic constraints.