This chapter is devoted to the presentation of the scenario results. It first reports aggregate r... more This chapter is devoted to the presentation of the scenario results. It first reports aggregate results on the average annual growth rates for the EU27, and for the two large blocks of countries, the OLD15 and the NEW12 countries, under each scenario. As will be shown, the four scenarios exhibit rather different growth trajectories, and they highlight interesting aspects: the
This chapter examines the potential new role and style of regional policies in the European Union... more This chapter examines the potential new role and style of regional policies in the European Union (EU) in the context of the different globalization strategies highlighted in the previous chapters. Regional policy suggestions are derived deductively from interpretations of the results of the empirical analysis on both the past and the simulation exercise. The latter has been based on different
As explained in the introductory chapter, the interest of this study is not only in the success f... more As explained in the introductory chapter, the interest of this study is not only in the success factors of benefiting regions in the past, but mainly concerns what will happen to benefiting and global regions once different and alternative assumptions are made on how globalization will continue to affect international markets.
In the first part of this book, close attention has been paid to the importance of a regional ana... more In the first part of this book, close attention has been paid to the importance of a regional analysis of globalization trends since these are expected to be spatially differentiated, and to have diverse impacts not only at the national, but especially at the regional level. This chapter takes up the challenge of describing the spatial patterns exhibited by globalization
ABSTRACT Over the past twenty years there has been a resurgence of interest in space among all fo... more ABSTRACT Over the past twenty years there has been a resurgence of interest in space among all forms of economic analysis, including empirical inquiry. The previous chapters have highlighted the theoretical development of space in local growth theories, preparing the ground for the conceptual framework used in the operational MASST model. This chapter describes how the treatment of space has developed in empirical analyses of regional growth, the specific aim being to link empirical techniques for the measurement of local growth determinants with the technical choices made in designing the MASST model.
The results of the descriptive analysis of globalization trends carried out in the previous chapt... more The results of the descriptive analysis of globalization trends carried out in the previous chapter evidence a European territory fragmented with respect to globalization in that some regions are more favoured than others as the natural locations for some globalization processes to occur. Whether or not the growth opportunities offered by globalization processes are grasped depends closely on a region’s
This chapter is devoted to presentation of the results for the three scenarios set out in the pre... more This chapter is devoted to presentation of the results for the three scenarios set out in the previous chapter: the baseline, the proactive, and the defensive scenarios. First of all, it reports aggregate results for Europe as a whole, and for Eastern and Western countries. As will be shown, the three scenarios exhibit rather different growth patterns, and they highlight
This part of the book is devoted to the creation of scenarios under different assumptions on how ... more This part of the book is devoted to the creation of scenarios under different assumptions on how globalization patterns will develop in the future.
As discussed in the previous chapter, high-quality and efficient territorial capital assets, toge... more As discussed in the previous chapter, high-quality and efficient territorial capital assets, together with high regional attractiveness, are the elements on which regional competitiveness is based. Territorial attractiveness therefore matters for regional growth, and this applies to all regions, regardless of their exposure to globalization processes. The continuous inflows of competitive and innovative economic factors, and mainly entrepreneurship and financial
International Regional Science Review, Jul 27, 2016
Regional growth forecasting models are back on the academic scene after a long time in which they... more Regional growth forecasting models are back on the academic scene after a long time in which they were no longer on the agenda of regional scientists. Launched in the 1970s, as a result of the enthusiasm stimulated by the creation of the first macroeconometric models of a typical Keynesian nature, during the 1980s, regional growth models were formulated in a different way, so as to emphasize supply-side elements. Since then, relatively little effort has been made to specify and estimate full-fledged econometric models of regional growth. However, decisive steps forward have been made in conceptualizing regional and local realities, capturing theoretical elements that have proved to be extremely useful in the interpretation of regional growth trajectories. In fact, new theoretical insights have characterized the past two decades. We refer first of all to the micro-founded economic models of regional growth based on firms’ increasing returns developed by the New Economic Geography (Krugman 1991) and by the stream of urban economics literature created by some seminal contributions (Glaeser et al. 1992; Combes, Duranton, and Gobillon 2011). But we also refer to the huge theoretical heritage of the endogenous development literature—industrial districts, milieux innovateurs, production clusters—aimed at better understanding the more selective pattern of regional growth through a more thorough interpretation
Cities are highlighted in traditional theories to be the most efficient drivers of economic growt... more Cities are highlighted in traditional theories to be the most efficient drivers of economic growth. Considered as sort of collective agents, implicitly or explicitly defining specific development trajectories, cities compete in the global economy for their attractiveness, building on their historical strengths and identifying opportunities for diversification and enlargement of their specializations by strengthening their know-how and knowledge base. Therefore, cities pro-act, and react, to economic volatility, by anticipating expectations on future economic trends and by absorbing the economic effects once they take place. This is true for both virtuous as well as declining cycles of development. The reasons for their static and dynamic efficiency lie in three main elements: the physical size, source of economies of scale; the functional specialisation in advanced value-added functions, source of creativity, learning, and knowledge; the urban system (or the network of cities) in which cities lie, where advantages of scale can easily be exploited avoiding hyper-concentration of production and residential activities. In the age of globalisation like the one we are going through nowadays, cities are areas able to grasp advantages of international competition from outside Europe, and they are expected to be the drivers of growth. In this paper, the aim is to analyse – with a prospective approach – the economic performance that European cities will manifest under different assumptions on the globalisation patterns that may develop in the future. With respect to the present literature, this paper contributes in two new directions: firstly, the aim is to highlight empirically the different actions and reactions that cities of different size, different functional specialisation and located in regions with different settlement structures have in front of a world economic integration; secondly, the aim is to analyse how cities act and react to alternative globalisation patterns, to different quality of competition from outside Europe, which may be sources of different opportunities and threats for different urban areas.
Sulla base della teoria delle localita centrali, questo lavoro paragona la performance delle 14 c... more Sulla base della teoria delle localita centrali, questo lavoro paragona la performance delle 14 citta metropolitane, istituite con la legge Delrio, al resto del Paese, per comprendere se tali citta si distacchino dal resto del Paese per posizionamento nella gerarchia urbana. I risultati suggeriscono che i criteri di applicazione della legge con cui si sono definiti i perimetri delle stesse con quelli delle province che hanno sostituito, non hanno dato luogo ad un gruppo coeso di citta per posizionamento relativo e performance all'interno della gerarchia urbana italiana.
This chapter is devoted to the presentation of the scenario results. It first reports aggregate r... more This chapter is devoted to the presentation of the scenario results. It first reports aggregate results on the average annual growth rates for the EU27, and for the two large blocks of countries, the OLD15 and the NEW12 countries, under each scenario. As will be shown, the four scenarios exhibit rather different growth trajectories, and they highlight interesting aspects: the
This chapter examines the potential new role and style of regional policies in the European Union... more This chapter examines the potential new role and style of regional policies in the European Union (EU) in the context of the different globalization strategies highlighted in the previous chapters. Regional policy suggestions are derived deductively from interpretations of the results of the empirical analysis on both the past and the simulation exercise. The latter has been based on different
As explained in the introductory chapter, the interest of this study is not only in the success f... more As explained in the introductory chapter, the interest of this study is not only in the success factors of benefiting regions in the past, but mainly concerns what will happen to benefiting and global regions once different and alternative assumptions are made on how globalization will continue to affect international markets.
In the first part of this book, close attention has been paid to the importance of a regional ana... more In the first part of this book, close attention has been paid to the importance of a regional analysis of globalization trends since these are expected to be spatially differentiated, and to have diverse impacts not only at the national, but especially at the regional level. This chapter takes up the challenge of describing the spatial patterns exhibited by globalization
ABSTRACT Over the past twenty years there has been a resurgence of interest in space among all fo... more ABSTRACT Over the past twenty years there has been a resurgence of interest in space among all forms of economic analysis, including empirical inquiry. The previous chapters have highlighted the theoretical development of space in local growth theories, preparing the ground for the conceptual framework used in the operational MASST model. This chapter describes how the treatment of space has developed in empirical analyses of regional growth, the specific aim being to link empirical techniques for the measurement of local growth determinants with the technical choices made in designing the MASST model.
The results of the descriptive analysis of globalization trends carried out in the previous chapt... more The results of the descriptive analysis of globalization trends carried out in the previous chapter evidence a European territory fragmented with respect to globalization in that some regions are more favoured than others as the natural locations for some globalization processes to occur. Whether or not the growth opportunities offered by globalization processes are grasped depends closely on a region’s
This chapter is devoted to presentation of the results for the three scenarios set out in the pre... more This chapter is devoted to presentation of the results for the three scenarios set out in the previous chapter: the baseline, the proactive, and the defensive scenarios. First of all, it reports aggregate results for Europe as a whole, and for Eastern and Western countries. As will be shown, the three scenarios exhibit rather different growth patterns, and they highlight
This part of the book is devoted to the creation of scenarios under different assumptions on how ... more This part of the book is devoted to the creation of scenarios under different assumptions on how globalization patterns will develop in the future.
As discussed in the previous chapter, high-quality and efficient territorial capital assets, toge... more As discussed in the previous chapter, high-quality and efficient territorial capital assets, together with high regional attractiveness, are the elements on which regional competitiveness is based. Territorial attractiveness therefore matters for regional growth, and this applies to all regions, regardless of their exposure to globalization processes. The continuous inflows of competitive and innovative economic factors, and mainly entrepreneurship and financial
International Regional Science Review, Jul 27, 2016
Regional growth forecasting models are back on the academic scene after a long time in which they... more Regional growth forecasting models are back on the academic scene after a long time in which they were no longer on the agenda of regional scientists. Launched in the 1970s, as a result of the enthusiasm stimulated by the creation of the first macroeconometric models of a typical Keynesian nature, during the 1980s, regional growth models were formulated in a different way, so as to emphasize supply-side elements. Since then, relatively little effort has been made to specify and estimate full-fledged econometric models of regional growth. However, decisive steps forward have been made in conceptualizing regional and local realities, capturing theoretical elements that have proved to be extremely useful in the interpretation of regional growth trajectories. In fact, new theoretical insights have characterized the past two decades. We refer first of all to the micro-founded economic models of regional growth based on firms’ increasing returns developed by the New Economic Geography (Krugman 1991) and by the stream of urban economics literature created by some seminal contributions (Glaeser et al. 1992; Combes, Duranton, and Gobillon 2011). But we also refer to the huge theoretical heritage of the endogenous development literature—industrial districts, milieux innovateurs, production clusters—aimed at better understanding the more selective pattern of regional growth through a more thorough interpretation
Cities are highlighted in traditional theories to be the most efficient drivers of economic growt... more Cities are highlighted in traditional theories to be the most efficient drivers of economic growth. Considered as sort of collective agents, implicitly or explicitly defining specific development trajectories, cities compete in the global economy for their attractiveness, building on their historical strengths and identifying opportunities for diversification and enlargement of their specializations by strengthening their know-how and knowledge base. Therefore, cities pro-act, and react, to economic volatility, by anticipating expectations on future economic trends and by absorbing the economic effects once they take place. This is true for both virtuous as well as declining cycles of development. The reasons for their static and dynamic efficiency lie in three main elements: the physical size, source of economies of scale; the functional specialisation in advanced value-added functions, source of creativity, learning, and knowledge; the urban system (or the network of cities) in which cities lie, where advantages of scale can easily be exploited avoiding hyper-concentration of production and residential activities. In the age of globalisation like the one we are going through nowadays, cities are areas able to grasp advantages of international competition from outside Europe, and they are expected to be the drivers of growth. In this paper, the aim is to analyse – with a prospective approach – the economic performance that European cities will manifest under different assumptions on the globalisation patterns that may develop in the future. With respect to the present literature, this paper contributes in two new directions: firstly, the aim is to highlight empirically the different actions and reactions that cities of different size, different functional specialisation and located in regions with different settlement structures have in front of a world economic integration; secondly, the aim is to analyse how cities act and react to alternative globalisation patterns, to different quality of competition from outside Europe, which may be sources of different opportunities and threats for different urban areas.
Sulla base della teoria delle localita centrali, questo lavoro paragona la performance delle 14 c... more Sulla base della teoria delle localita centrali, questo lavoro paragona la performance delle 14 citta metropolitane, istituite con la legge Delrio, al resto del Paese, per comprendere se tali citta si distacchino dal resto del Paese per posizionamento nella gerarchia urbana. I risultati suggeriscono che i criteri di applicazione della legge con cui si sono definiti i perimetri delle stesse con quelli delle province che hanno sostituito, non hanno dato luogo ad un gruppo coeso di citta per posizionamento relativo e performance all'interno della gerarchia urbana italiana.
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