This report investigates the aggregate picture that emerges from these reports. We collected arou... more This report investigates the aggregate picture that emerges from these reports. We collected around 70 studies that were published by CERTs, security companies, and research organizations from 15 countries from the last few years. In three chapters, we look at what these reports say about the threats in cyber space. Chapter 2 gives a quantitative overview of cyber attacks. It focuses on the reporting itself, the general trends, perpetrators, targets, tools and techniques used, and their impact. Chapter 3 looks at some new trends mentioned in these reports, and gives a (non-exhaustive) overview of some trends that can help broaden our ‘cyber threat horizon’. In chapter 4, we zoom in on the responses to these threats from the private and public sector, and the public. Do we see gaps in the assessment of threats, and focus of the strategies in place? A final chapter lists the main conclusions of this report, with recommendations for the future.
Subject. We investigate determinants of fixed asset investment in the Russian fishery sector. Obj... more Subject. We investigate determinants of fixed asset investment in the Russian fishery sector. Objectives. The purpose is to unveil meaningful patterns and primary drivers of investment activity in the Russian fishing industry. Methods. The study draws on methods of comparative analysis, statistical analysis, economic modeling, graphical interpretation, and logical generalization. The informational base of the study includes statistical data of the FAO, IMF, OECD, Rosstat, and the Federal Agency for Fishery. Results. We examined determinants and investment trends in the Russian fishery sector from the 1990s to 2020. The main factor, influencing the investment trends, proved to be the pre-tax profits in the sector. It explains over eighty percent of changes in the level of investment in fixed assets. Another important, however, less significant factor was a trend towards decline in rates on loans. Both factors had the greatest impact, with the lag of one year. Conclusions. Our analysi...
Climate change is arguably the largest environmental challenge facing humankind. Though the impac... more Climate change is arguably the largest environmental challenge facing humankind. Though the impact will be gradual and difficult to predict, we slowly start to understand how this process will affect our planet. The study "Innovation in a Warming World" spells out these effects, specifically for Europe, and shows what research and development efforts happen where. Finally, it suggests technologies and research areas that deserve increased attention (from advanced vehicles and studies on ‘tipping points’, to geoengineering approaches like stratospheric aerosol and cloud brightening). Our report is complemented by a GeoRisQ Monitor, which assesses the overall vulnerability of countries worldwide to the impact of climate change. The Climate Change Vulnerability Index is based on the following three indicators: (i) the vulnerability to weather-related disasters; (ii) the vulnerability to sea level rise; and (iii) the expected loss of agricultural productivity.
As the Soviet Union broke up, Kaliningrad suddenly found itself separated from mainland Russia by... more As the Soviet Union broke up, Kaliningrad suddenly found itself separated from mainland Russia by new frontiers. Hardly any other Russian region has been hit as hard by the economic disruption as Kaliningrad. The geographical situation of the region meant that it was more highly exposed to the destabilising effects of post-communist economic transformation. Since then, a dramatic trade opening has occurred, and regional trade and production have undergone profound changes. Kaliningrad has experienced a major shift in its economic orientation towards the tertiary sector and a new industrial orientation based on its position as an intermediary in EU–Russian trade. In short, that is what this report is about: the present and future economic development of this Russian enclave during its integration into the world economy, its place in the international division of labour and in the Russian–EU economic interface. The major phenomenon relative to the economic development of the region is...
Politicians worldwide are fond of supporting high-technology indus-tries—that is, industries that... more Politicians worldwide are fond of supporting high-technology indus-tries—that is, industries that develop and deploy new technologies to cre-ate products or services not previously available. These industries, where expenditures on research and development (R&D) as a share of total sales are much higher than average, 1 are considered especially attractive be-cause demand for their products often grows rapidly. These industries also tend to pay wages substantially higher than average. Production pro-cesses often have less impact on the environment than some traditional industries. In some instances, R&D undertaken by high-technology indus-tries has spillover effects that benefit other sectors in the economy. Russia is no different. Both President Dmitri Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin envision increased output from high-technology industries as driving Russia's economic growth. 2 This chapter assesses whether these hopes are likely to be fulfilled. We first assess Russ...
In recent years, rapid technological progress has led to a wholesale destruction of middle-level ... more In recent years, rapid technological progress has led to a wholesale destruction of middle-level jobs and a substantial rise in income inequality. It could also bring an era of high structural unemployment. These impacts constitute a major challenge that cannot be ignored by policymakers. They affect the fundamentals of our labor market – and might severely shake the social structure and stability of our society. This new report examines the impacts of technology on the European labor market. The report documents that technological innovation brings not only immense benefits but also significant dislocations in the labor market by making many jobs redundant. HCSS calls upon policymakers to take the risks of job polarization, increased inequality and potentially high technological unemployment quite seriously and suggests some policy measures that could mitigate these risks.
This report investigates the aggregate picture that emerges from these reports. We collected arou... more This report investigates the aggregate picture that emerges from these reports. We collected around 70 studies that were published by CERTs, security companies, and research organizations from 15 countries from the last few years. In three chapters, we look at what these reports say about the threats in cyber space. Chapter 2 gives a quantitative overview of cyber attacks. It focuses on the reporting itself, the general trends, perpetrators, targets, tools and techniques used, and their impact. Chapter 3 looks at some new trends mentioned in these reports, and gives a (non-exhaustive) overview of some trends that can help broaden our ‘cyber threat horizon’. In chapter 4, we zoom in on the responses to these threats from the private and public sector, and the public. Do we see gaps in the assessment of threats, and focus of the strategies in place? A final chapter lists the main conclusions of this report, with recommendations for the future.
Subject. We investigate determinants of fixed asset investment in the Russian fishery sector. Obj... more Subject. We investigate determinants of fixed asset investment in the Russian fishery sector. Objectives. The purpose is to unveil meaningful patterns and primary drivers of investment activity in the Russian fishing industry. Methods. The study draws on methods of comparative analysis, statistical analysis, economic modeling, graphical interpretation, and logical generalization. The informational base of the study includes statistical data of the FAO, IMF, OECD, Rosstat, and the Federal Agency for Fishery. Results. We examined determinants and investment trends in the Russian fishery sector from the 1990s to 2020. The main factor, influencing the investment trends, proved to be the pre-tax profits in the sector. It explains over eighty percent of changes in the level of investment in fixed assets. Another important, however, less significant factor was a trend towards decline in rates on loans. Both factors had the greatest impact, with the lag of one year. Conclusions. Our analysi...
Climate change is arguably the largest environmental challenge facing humankind. Though the impac... more Climate change is arguably the largest environmental challenge facing humankind. Though the impact will be gradual and difficult to predict, we slowly start to understand how this process will affect our planet. The study "Innovation in a Warming World" spells out these effects, specifically for Europe, and shows what research and development efforts happen where. Finally, it suggests technologies and research areas that deserve increased attention (from advanced vehicles and studies on ‘tipping points’, to geoengineering approaches like stratospheric aerosol and cloud brightening). Our report is complemented by a GeoRisQ Monitor, which assesses the overall vulnerability of countries worldwide to the impact of climate change. The Climate Change Vulnerability Index is based on the following three indicators: (i) the vulnerability to weather-related disasters; (ii) the vulnerability to sea level rise; and (iii) the expected loss of agricultural productivity.
As the Soviet Union broke up, Kaliningrad suddenly found itself separated from mainland Russia by... more As the Soviet Union broke up, Kaliningrad suddenly found itself separated from mainland Russia by new frontiers. Hardly any other Russian region has been hit as hard by the economic disruption as Kaliningrad. The geographical situation of the region meant that it was more highly exposed to the destabilising effects of post-communist economic transformation. Since then, a dramatic trade opening has occurred, and regional trade and production have undergone profound changes. Kaliningrad has experienced a major shift in its economic orientation towards the tertiary sector and a new industrial orientation based on its position as an intermediary in EU–Russian trade. In short, that is what this report is about: the present and future economic development of this Russian enclave during its integration into the world economy, its place in the international division of labour and in the Russian–EU economic interface. The major phenomenon relative to the economic development of the region is...
Politicians worldwide are fond of supporting high-technology indus-tries—that is, industries that... more Politicians worldwide are fond of supporting high-technology indus-tries—that is, industries that develop and deploy new technologies to cre-ate products or services not previously available. These industries, where expenditures on research and development (R&D) as a share of total sales are much higher than average, 1 are considered especially attractive be-cause demand for their products often grows rapidly. These industries also tend to pay wages substantially higher than average. Production pro-cesses often have less impact on the environment than some traditional industries. In some instances, R&D undertaken by high-technology indus-tries has spillover effects that benefit other sectors in the economy. Russia is no different. Both President Dmitri Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin envision increased output from high-technology industries as driving Russia's economic growth. 2 This chapter assesses whether these hopes are likely to be fulfilled. We first assess Russ...
In recent years, rapid technological progress has led to a wholesale destruction of middle-level ... more In recent years, rapid technological progress has led to a wholesale destruction of middle-level jobs and a substantial rise in income inequality. It could also bring an era of high structural unemployment. These impacts constitute a major challenge that cannot be ignored by policymakers. They affect the fundamentals of our labor market – and might severely shake the social structure and stability of our society. This new report examines the impacts of technology on the European labor market. The report documents that technological innovation brings not only immense benefits but also significant dislocations in the labor market by making many jobs redundant. HCSS calls upon policymakers to take the risks of job polarization, increased inequality and potentially high technological unemployment quite seriously and suggests some policy measures that could mitigate these risks.
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Papers by Artur Usanov