Location via proxy:   [ UP ]  
[Report a bug]   [Manage cookies]                

Stochastic analysis of COVID-19 by a SEIR model with Lévy noise

Chaos. 2021 Apr;31(4):043132. doi: 10.1063/5.0021108.

Abstract

We propose a Lévy noise-driven susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered model incorporating media coverage to analyze the outbreak of COVID-19. We conduct a theoretical analysis of the stochastic model by the suitable Lyapunov function, including the existence and uniqueness of the positive solution, the dynamic properties around the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium; we deduce a stochastic basic reproduction number R0 s for the extinction of disease, that is, if R0 s≤1, the disease will go to extinction. Particularly, we fit the data from Brazil to predict the trend of the epidemic. Our main findings include the following: (i) stochastic perturbation may affect the dynamic behavior of the disease, and larger noise will be more beneficial to control its spread; (ii) strengthening social isolation, increasing the cure rate and media coverage can effectively control the spread of disease. Our results support the feasible ways of containing the outbreak of the epidemic.

MeSH terms

  • Basic Reproduction Number
  • COVID-19*
  • Disease Outbreaks
  • Epidemics*
  • Humans
  • SARS-CoV-2