This paper assesses the prospects of trade in IT and IT-enabled services after ratification of In... more This paper assesses the prospects of trade in IT and IT-enabled services after ratification of India-Korea Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) by combining emerging development policy paradigms in both the countries.
This paper empirically examines the post-1991 trade dynamics in India in terms of their impact on... more This paper empirically examines the post-1991 trade dynamics in India in terms of their impact on foreign exchange reserves by estimating export and import functions for the period from January 1994 to October 2008. Implementing the Johansen (1995) maximum likelihood method of cointegration and vector error correction on monthly data, the study finds a long-run significant relationship among exports, world exports, and real effective exchange rate in the export function, and among imports, domestic demand and real effective exchange rate in the import function. These findings imply that the trade flows are sensitive to changes in demand and real exchange rate. The error correction mechanisms seem to be robust and respond faster to any short-run disequilibrium in the cointegrating systems. Impulse response functions indicate an average shock persistence of 12 months, except shock to imports by itself that does not tapper off over a 36-month time horizon. Further, the findings suggest...
This paper documents the progress in regional economic relations among the Indian Ocean Rim Assoc... more This paper documents the progress in regional economic relations among the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) countries particularly in the 2000s. IORA seems to have consolidated its efforts in reaping the benefits of higher trade and investment flows.
Trade facilitation infrastructure and systems in many countries of Asia and Africa are still far ... more Trade facilitation infrastructure and systems in many countries of Asia and Africa are still far from the global benchmarks. Regardless of the level of trade facilitation, most of those countries have registered significant growth in trade over the years, particularly the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) countries. With rapid trade liberalization intra-regional trade is growing in the IORA region. AAGC can lend support to deepening trade integration in Indo-Pacific region approximated by surging of trade among IORA countries. Modern trade facilitation infrastructure and application of information technology could be the game changer in enabling higher trade among Asian and African economies. AAGC countries can cooperate in technology upgradation, particularly single windows, risk management and customs valuation. While India performs well in IT applications and services, Japan, on the other hand, has efficient risk management system in the world which would provide synergistic le...
With comprehensive financial reforms in 1990s, Indian banking sector witnessed several mergers an... more With comprehensive financial reforms in 1990s, Indian banking sector witnessed several mergers and acquisitions, emergence of financial conglomerates, and wider participation of private and foreign banks. As a result, large and diversified financial entities, called universal banks, started offering traditional banking as well as value-added services including project consultancy, underwriting, investment banking, credit rating and other customized services under one-stop shop model. Complemented by an overall rise in economic activity demand for universal banking services has grown in leaps and bounds over last two decades. Despite encouraging response from industry and consumers universal banking has not yet received undisputed endorsement of policymakers and regulators as a sound and efficient model of financial services. This monograph is an attempt to quantify the extent of universalization among banks operating in India, and empirically measure their technical, allocative and ...
This paper attempts to identify the key determinants of foreign exchange reserves in India using ... more This paper attempts to identify the key determinants of foreign exchange reserves in India using Johansen (1995) Maximum-Likelihood Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) on monthly as well as annual data for reserves, imports and nominal exchange rate. The empirical results confirm that there exists a long-run cointegrating relationship among reserves, imports and nominal exchange rate. The shocks to imports and exchange rate have permanent effects on reserves, on level as well as volatility. Drawing inferences from these findings, it can be suggested that any target level of reserves could be only feasible in the short-run as the model produces a stationary equilibrium relationship among these three core variables of a standard reserve demand function.
This brief takes stock of the dominant perspectives on foreign exchange reserve management in Asi... more This brief takes stock of the dominant perspectives on foreign exchange reserve management in Asia especially in view of rapid accumulation of reserves in some crisis-hit economies in Asia and elsewhere.
Financial crises entail heavy adjustment costs on the global economy in the form of growth decele... more Financial crises entail heavy adjustment costs on the global economy in the form of growth deceleration, weak external sector, rising prices and high unemployment. Moreover, the affected economies witness distressed policy reversals which sometimes prove detrimental to the home economy in high growth periods, typical of East Asian tigers during the 1997 financial crisis. These negative externalities inflicted upon the society in event of such crises warrant the need for credible effective crisis detection and monitoring mechanisms. This article contributes to that debate by identifying the presence of synchronicity and contagion risk in Asia in a panel cointegration model involving select financial sector variables. Empirical findings of the study interestingly reveal a strong existence of cointegration among these set of variables for the full period, that is, 1990: Q1 to 2011: Q2 as well as for various sub-periods suggesting high risk of contagion in the region. Further, the artic...
would have provided for a more cohesive conclusion to an otherwise well-presented book. Security ... more would have provided for a more cohesive conclusion to an otherwise well-presented book. Security is undoubtedly an area of concern in South Asia. Regional answers to these issues of security are still in discussion. While individual governments attempt to provide as much security to its citizens, given the broadness of the term ‘security’ in today’s world, forming a cooperative security framework would be significant in ensuring better protection to all South Asian countries. However, if such a framework is not well planned and logically formulated, it could have severe consequences on the entire region. With the exception of the few shortcomings discussed thus far, this book is undoubtedly a stimulating and timely contribution to this ongoing debate on collective security in South Asia.
With two decades of functioning, G20 Process seems to be maturing with much wider scope of engage... more With two decades of functioning, G20 Process seems to be maturing with much wider scope of engagement among the member states. G20 Summit Agenda has diversified from a finance focus to hard-core development issues. While it is being viewed as a welcome step by the global community from the perspective of an alternative forum for deliberations on common issues affecting the world, there is suspicion over the legitimacy, ownership and effectiveness of G20 commitments by the member states and the third countries. The article discusses the evolution of G20 Agenda in that spirit.
This paper assesses the prospects of trade in IT and IT-enabled services after ratification of In... more This paper assesses the prospects of trade in IT and IT-enabled services after ratification of India-Korea Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) by combining emerging development policy paradigms in both the countries.
This paper empirically examines the post-1991 trade dynamics in India in terms of their impact on... more This paper empirically examines the post-1991 trade dynamics in India in terms of their impact on foreign exchange reserves by estimating export and import functions for the period from January 1994 to October 2008. Implementing the Johansen (1995) maximum likelihood method of cointegration and vector error correction on monthly data, the study finds a long-run significant relationship among exports, world exports, and real effective exchange rate in the export function, and among imports, domestic demand and real effective exchange rate in the import function. These findings imply that the trade flows are sensitive to changes in demand and real exchange rate. The error correction mechanisms seem to be robust and respond faster to any short-run disequilibrium in the cointegrating systems. Impulse response functions indicate an average shock persistence of 12 months, except shock to imports by itself that does not tapper off over a 36-month time horizon. Further, the findings suggest...
This paper documents the progress in regional economic relations among the Indian Ocean Rim Assoc... more This paper documents the progress in regional economic relations among the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) countries particularly in the 2000s. IORA seems to have consolidated its efforts in reaping the benefits of higher trade and investment flows.
Trade facilitation infrastructure and systems in many countries of Asia and Africa are still far ... more Trade facilitation infrastructure and systems in many countries of Asia and Africa are still far from the global benchmarks. Regardless of the level of trade facilitation, most of those countries have registered significant growth in trade over the years, particularly the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) countries. With rapid trade liberalization intra-regional trade is growing in the IORA region. AAGC can lend support to deepening trade integration in Indo-Pacific region approximated by surging of trade among IORA countries. Modern trade facilitation infrastructure and application of information technology could be the game changer in enabling higher trade among Asian and African economies. AAGC countries can cooperate in technology upgradation, particularly single windows, risk management and customs valuation. While India performs well in IT applications and services, Japan, on the other hand, has efficient risk management system in the world which would provide synergistic le...
With comprehensive financial reforms in 1990s, Indian banking sector witnessed several mergers an... more With comprehensive financial reforms in 1990s, Indian banking sector witnessed several mergers and acquisitions, emergence of financial conglomerates, and wider participation of private and foreign banks. As a result, large and diversified financial entities, called universal banks, started offering traditional banking as well as value-added services including project consultancy, underwriting, investment banking, credit rating and other customized services under one-stop shop model. Complemented by an overall rise in economic activity demand for universal banking services has grown in leaps and bounds over last two decades. Despite encouraging response from industry and consumers universal banking has not yet received undisputed endorsement of policymakers and regulators as a sound and efficient model of financial services. This monograph is an attempt to quantify the extent of universalization among banks operating in India, and empirically measure their technical, allocative and ...
This paper attempts to identify the key determinants of foreign exchange reserves in India using ... more This paper attempts to identify the key determinants of foreign exchange reserves in India using Johansen (1995) Maximum-Likelihood Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) on monthly as well as annual data for reserves, imports and nominal exchange rate. The empirical results confirm that there exists a long-run cointegrating relationship among reserves, imports and nominal exchange rate. The shocks to imports and exchange rate have permanent effects on reserves, on level as well as volatility. Drawing inferences from these findings, it can be suggested that any target level of reserves could be only feasible in the short-run as the model produces a stationary equilibrium relationship among these three core variables of a standard reserve demand function.
This brief takes stock of the dominant perspectives on foreign exchange reserve management in Asi... more This brief takes stock of the dominant perspectives on foreign exchange reserve management in Asia especially in view of rapid accumulation of reserves in some crisis-hit economies in Asia and elsewhere.
Financial crises entail heavy adjustment costs on the global economy in the form of growth decele... more Financial crises entail heavy adjustment costs on the global economy in the form of growth deceleration, weak external sector, rising prices and high unemployment. Moreover, the affected economies witness distressed policy reversals which sometimes prove detrimental to the home economy in high growth periods, typical of East Asian tigers during the 1997 financial crisis. These negative externalities inflicted upon the society in event of such crises warrant the need for credible effective crisis detection and monitoring mechanisms. This article contributes to that debate by identifying the presence of synchronicity and contagion risk in Asia in a panel cointegration model involving select financial sector variables. Empirical findings of the study interestingly reveal a strong existence of cointegration among these set of variables for the full period, that is, 1990: Q1 to 2011: Q2 as well as for various sub-periods suggesting high risk of contagion in the region. Further, the artic...
would have provided for a more cohesive conclusion to an otherwise well-presented book. Security ... more would have provided for a more cohesive conclusion to an otherwise well-presented book. Security is undoubtedly an area of concern in South Asia. Regional answers to these issues of security are still in discussion. While individual governments attempt to provide as much security to its citizens, given the broadness of the term ‘security’ in today’s world, forming a cooperative security framework would be significant in ensuring better protection to all South Asian countries. However, if such a framework is not well planned and logically formulated, it could have severe consequences on the entire region. With the exception of the few shortcomings discussed thus far, this book is undoubtedly a stimulating and timely contribution to this ongoing debate on collective security in South Asia.
With two decades of functioning, G20 Process seems to be maturing with much wider scope of engage... more With two decades of functioning, G20 Process seems to be maturing with much wider scope of engagement among the member states. G20 Summit Agenda has diversified from a finance focus to hard-core development issues. While it is being viewed as a welcome step by the global community from the perspective of an alternative forum for deliberations on common issues affecting the world, there is suspicion over the legitimacy, ownership and effectiveness of G20 commitments by the member states and the third countries. The article discusses the evolution of G20 Agenda in that spirit.
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