latitude of Ephemeral Regions as Indicator of Strength of Solar Cycles

AG Tlatov, AA Pevtsov - arXiv preprint arXiv:1008.0185, 2010 - arxiv.org
AG Tlatov, AA Pevtsov
arXiv preprint arXiv:1008.0185, 2010arxiv.org
Digitized images of full disk CaK spectroheliograms from two solar observatories were used
to study cycle variation of ephemeral regions (ERs) over ten solar cycles 14-23. We
calculate monthly averaged unsigned latitude of ERs and compare it with annual sunspot
number. We find that average latitude of ERs can be used as a predictor for strength of solar
cycle. For a short-term prediction (dT about 1-2 years), maximum latitude of ephemeral
regions (in current cycle) defines the amplitude of that cycle (higher is the latitude of ERs …
Digitized images of full disk CaK spectroheliograms from two solar observatories were used to study cycle variation of ephemeral regions (ERs) over ten solar cycles 14-23. We calculate monthly averaged unsigned latitude of ERs and compare it with annual sunspot number. We find that average latitude of ERs can be used as a predictor for strength of solar cycle. For a short-term prediction (dT about 1-2 years), maximum latitude of ephemeral regions (in current cycle) defines the amplitude of that cycle (higher is the latitude of ERs, larger are the amplitudes of sunspot cycle). For a long-term prediction (dT about 1.5 solar cycles), latitude of ERs at declining phase of n-th cycle determines the amplitude of (n+2)-th sunspot cycle (lower is the latitude of ERs, stronger is the cycle). Using this latter dependency, we forecast the amplitude of sunspot cycle 24 at W=92 +/- 13 (in units of annual sunspot number).
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