Questioning the use of global estimates of reproduction numbers, with implications for policy

PK Kollepara, JC Miller - arXiv preprint arXiv:2112.05437, 2021 - arxiv.org
PK Kollepara, JC Miller
arXiv preprint arXiv:2112.05437, 2021arxiv.org
The basic reproduction number, $ R_0 $ is an important and widely used concept in the
study of infectious diseases. We briefly review the recent trend of calculating the average of
various $ R_0 $ estimates in systematic reviews aimed at estimating the basic reproduction
number of SARS-CoV-2, and discuss the drawbacks and implications of using such
averaging methods. Additionally, we argue that even a theoretically grounded approach
such as next generation matrix could have practical impediments in its use. More generally …
The basic reproduction number, is an important and widely used concept in the study of infectious diseases. We briefly review the recent trend of calculating the average of various estimates in systematic reviews aimed at estimating the basic reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2, and discuss the drawbacks and implications of using such averaging methods. Additionally, we argue that even a theoretically grounded approach such as next generation matrix could have practical impediments in its use. More generally, the practice of associating an infectious disease with a single value of is problematic, when the disease can, in fact have different reproduction numbers in various populations.
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