The knowledge-gradient policy for correlated normal beliefs

P Frazier, W Powell, S Dayanik - INFORMS journal on …, 2009 - pubsonline.informs.org
INFORMS journal on Computing, 2009pubsonline.informs.org
We consider a Bayesian ranking and selection problem with independent normal rewards
and a correlated multivariate normal belief on the mean values of these rewards. Because
this formulation of the ranking and selection problem models dependence between
alternatives' mean values, algorithms may use this dependence to perform efficiently even
when the number of alternatives is very large. We propose a fully sequential sampling policy
called the knowledge-gradient policy, which is provably optimal in some special cases and …
We consider a Bayesian ranking and selection problem with independent normal rewards and a correlated multivariate normal belief on the mean values of these rewards. Because this formulation of the ranking and selection problem models dependence between alternatives' mean values, algorithms may use this dependence to perform efficiently even when the number of alternatives is very large. We propose a fully sequential sampling policy called the knowledge-gradient policy, which is provably optimal in some special cases and has bounded suboptimality in all others. We then demonstrate how this policy may be applied to efficiently maximize a continuous function on a continuous domain while constrained to a fixed number of noisy measurements.
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