How should the Fermi paradox affect an estimate of humankind's likelihood and best means
of long-term survival? A significant probability that many other civilizations have been in our
situation but failed to become spacefaring increases the probability that our optimal
existential risk strategies are costly, likely to fail, likely to leave traces if they do fail, and
might require talents that mankind has but that other scientifically advanced species lack.
The Fermi paradox implies that we should seek scientific data based on astronomical …