Think globally, act locally: A deep neural network approach to high-dimensional time series forecasting

R Sen, HF Yu, IS Dhillon - Advances in neural information …, 2019 - proceedings.neurips.cc
Advances in neural information processing systems, 2019proceedings.neurips.cc
Forecasting high-dimensional time series plays a crucial role in many applications such as
demand forecasting and financial predictions. Modern datasets can have millions of
correlated time-series that evolve together, ie they are extremely high dimensional (one
dimension for each individual time-series). There is a need for exploiting global patterns and
coupling them with local calibration for better prediction. However, most recent deep
learning approaches in the literature are one-dimensional, ie, even though they are trained …
Abstract
Forecasting high-dimensional time series plays a crucial role in many applications such as demand forecasting and financial predictions. Modern datasets can have millions of correlated time-series that evolve together, ie they are extremely high dimensional (one dimension for each individual time-series). There is a need for exploiting global patterns and coupling them with local calibration for better prediction. However, most recent deep learning approaches in the literature are one-dimensional, ie, even though they are trained on the whole dataset, during prediction, the future forecast for a single dimension mainly depends on past values from the same dimension. In this paper, we seek to correct this deficiency and propose DeepGLO, a deep forecasting model which thinks globally and acts locally. In particular, DeepGLO is a hybrid model that combines a global matrix factorization model regularized by a temporal convolution network, along with another temporal network that can capture local properties of each time-series and associated covariates. Our model can be trained effectively on high-dimensional but diverse time series, where different time series can have vastly different scales, without a priori normalization or rescaling. Empirical results demonstrate that DeepGLO can outperform state-of-the-art approaches; for example, we see more than 25% improvement in WAPE over other methods on a public dataset that contains more than 100K-dimensional time series.
proceedings.neurips.cc