Le couronnement de Charles III est un aléa supplémentaire pour le Royaume-Uni, mais aussi une opp... more Le couronnement de Charles III est un aléa supplémentaire pour le Royaume-Uni, mais aussi une opportunité. Aléa parce que cette monarchie est encore fragile, dépendante, vacillante sans le soutien de certaines forces économiques irritées par un écologisme perturbant la cohérence du message productiviste britannique – cette « communication stratégique » chère à Churchill... mais opportunité car les sondages montrent un alignement de la population britannique sur les chiffres continentaux en matière d’inquiétude face au changement climatique et d’efforts à fournir dans sa vie personnelle pour tenter de réparer les dommages faits à la nature...
Academics have recently shown how social media hatred “can act as a propagation mechanism with re... more Academics have recently shown how social media hatred “can act as a propagation mechanism with real-life violent crime.” The data my team has collected, via the FBI, OSCE’s Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR), and EU’s Fundamental Rights Agency (FRA) websites, does not demonstrate this correlation regarding antisemitism, but it gives an idea of the trajectory that violence against Jews has taken over the past fifteen years across the West...
Amongst the thorniest subjects that the Brexitian shadow covers, that of the next EU budget is on... more Amongst the thorniest subjects that the Brexitian shadow covers, that of the next EU budget is one of the most strategic and most ominous in Brussels - volume, spending priorities, resources, conditionality... Our visualisations may help all sides in that discussion, as well as inform EU citizens who wish to understand where their money is going.
Reaching back to the 1970s, this inquiry delves into the calculations that have led many EU membe... more Reaching back to the 1970s, this inquiry delves into the calculations that have led many EU member states to today’s failure to act decisively: • the EU’s oscillation between pro-democracy and pro-dictatorship tendencies, • EU tools to identify and support like-minded partners, • the EU’s ability to leverage this support to alter decisions taken by local stakeholders.
Over the past 15 years, western powers have been engaged in numerous battles in which technology ... more Over the past 15 years, western powers have been engaged in numerous battles in which technology has eventually prevailed over a patient but daring field presence. Today's adversaries, such as islamic State, are well aware of this cultural bias: they are using our post 9/11 exhaustion to grab territories and spread offensive ideology. western countries have no choice but to adapt partly to its adversaries' methods. Stability and peace will require cold cultural compromises as the pursuit of our interests and values requires a new tolerance threshold towards violence. Keywords west | warfare | Conflict responses | Courage | resilience | islamic State | russia | iran
“The French are frustratingly irresponsible, individualistic” is one complaint sometimes heard in... more “The French are frustratingly irresponsible, individualistic” is one complaint sometimes heard in diplomatic quarters. Foreign Policy recently doubled down with an opinion piece complaining that France was accommodating imperial Russia and forcing Europe into its (alleged) socialistic views.
This outrage reveals a well-known difficulty in understanding my country’s perspective. France has realised (around two centuries ago) it is no great power anymore – unlike Brexit-prone UK – but its geography remains exposed to all winds, with islands and partnerships spread across the world. “The curse of having 36.000 communes, two seas and countless borders to deal with”, wrote historian Fernand Braudel...
En anticipant la reprise de Kaboul par les talibans en août 2021, l’ambassadeur de France David M... more En anticipant la reprise de Kaboul par les talibans en août 2021, l’ambassadeur de France David Martinon a sauvé des vies. Pourtant, le diplomate était isolé face à plusieurs agences de renseignement américaines feignant l’optimisme, à des officiels européens jouant la montre, à une communauté française sur place ne comprenant pas le rapport de forces, à de nombreuses figures parisiennes semant le doute un peu partout. Son livre Les 15 jours qui ont fait basculer l'Afghanistan permet de cerner une méthode d'anticipation, mais aussi quelques limites...
Le couronnement de Charles III est un aléa supplémentaire pour le Royaume-Uni, mais aussi une opp... more Le couronnement de Charles III est un aléa supplémentaire pour le Royaume-Uni, mais aussi une opportunité. Aléa parce que cette monarchie est encore fragile, dépendante, vacillante sans le soutien de certaines forces économiques irritées par un écologisme perturbant la cohérence du message productiviste britannique – cette « communication stratégique » chère à Churchill... mais opportunité car les sondages montrent un alignement de la population britannique sur les chiffres continentaux en matière d’inquiétude face au changement climatique et d’efforts à fournir dans sa vie personnelle pour tenter de réparer les dommages faits à la nature...
Academics have recently shown how social media hatred “can act as a propagation mechanism with re... more Academics have recently shown how social media hatred “can act as a propagation mechanism with real-life violent crime.” The data my team has collected, via the FBI, OSCE’s Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR), and EU’s Fundamental Rights Agency (FRA) websites, does not demonstrate this correlation regarding antisemitism, but it gives an idea of the trajectory that violence against Jews has taken over the past fifteen years across the West...
Amongst the thorniest subjects that the Brexitian shadow covers, that of the next EU budget is on... more Amongst the thorniest subjects that the Brexitian shadow covers, that of the next EU budget is one of the most strategic and most ominous in Brussels - volume, spending priorities, resources, conditionality... Our visualisations may help all sides in that discussion, as well as inform EU citizens who wish to understand where their money is going.
Reaching back to the 1970s, this inquiry delves into the calculations that have led many EU membe... more Reaching back to the 1970s, this inquiry delves into the calculations that have led many EU member states to today’s failure to act decisively: • the EU’s oscillation between pro-democracy and pro-dictatorship tendencies, • EU tools to identify and support like-minded partners, • the EU’s ability to leverage this support to alter decisions taken by local stakeholders.
Over the past 15 years, western powers have been engaged in numerous battles in which technology ... more Over the past 15 years, western powers have been engaged in numerous battles in which technology has eventually prevailed over a patient but daring field presence. Today's adversaries, such as islamic State, are well aware of this cultural bias: they are using our post 9/11 exhaustion to grab territories and spread offensive ideology. western countries have no choice but to adapt partly to its adversaries' methods. Stability and peace will require cold cultural compromises as the pursuit of our interests and values requires a new tolerance threshold towards violence. Keywords west | warfare | Conflict responses | Courage | resilience | islamic State | russia | iran
“The French are frustratingly irresponsible, individualistic” is one complaint sometimes heard in... more “The French are frustratingly irresponsible, individualistic” is one complaint sometimes heard in diplomatic quarters. Foreign Policy recently doubled down with an opinion piece complaining that France was accommodating imperial Russia and forcing Europe into its (alleged) socialistic views.
This outrage reveals a well-known difficulty in understanding my country’s perspective. France has realised (around two centuries ago) it is no great power anymore – unlike Brexit-prone UK – but its geography remains exposed to all winds, with islands and partnerships spread across the world. “The curse of having 36.000 communes, two seas and countless borders to deal with”, wrote historian Fernand Braudel...
En anticipant la reprise de Kaboul par les talibans en août 2021, l’ambassadeur de France David M... more En anticipant la reprise de Kaboul par les talibans en août 2021, l’ambassadeur de France David Martinon a sauvé des vies. Pourtant, le diplomate était isolé face à plusieurs agences de renseignement américaines feignant l’optimisme, à des officiels européens jouant la montre, à une communauté française sur place ne comprenant pas le rapport de forces, à de nombreuses figures parisiennes semant le doute un peu partout. Son livre Les 15 jours qui ont fait basculer l'Afghanistan permet de cerner une méthode d'anticipation, mais aussi quelques limites...
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• the EU’s oscillation between pro-democracy and pro-dictatorship tendencies,
• EU tools to identify and support like-minded partners,
• the EU’s ability to leverage this support to alter decisions taken by local stakeholders.
This outrage reveals a well-known difficulty in understanding my country’s perspective. France has realised (around two centuries ago) it is no great power anymore – unlike Brexit-prone UK – but its geography remains exposed to all winds, with islands and partnerships spread across the world. “The curse of having 36.000 communes, two seas and countless borders to deal with”, wrote historian Fernand Braudel...
• the EU’s oscillation between pro-democracy and pro-dictatorship tendencies,
• EU tools to identify and support like-minded partners,
• the EU’s ability to leverage this support to alter decisions taken by local stakeholders.
This outrage reveals a well-known difficulty in understanding my country’s perspective. France has realised (around two centuries ago) it is no great power anymore – unlike Brexit-prone UK – but its geography remains exposed to all winds, with islands and partnerships spread across the world. “The curse of having 36.000 communes, two seas and countless borders to deal with”, wrote historian Fernand Braudel...