"This collection of essays is intended to showcase the potentially wide applicability of Strategi... more "This collection of essays is intended to showcase the potentially wide applicability of Strategic Foresight and Warning approaches and concepts. These provide a suite of useful analytical tools for busy analysts within and outside government. Such tools may well be timely as policy analysts everywhere face the demanding task of having to make sense of an often bewildering variety of often- linked transnational security threats, challenges and opportunities that comprise the complex milieu within which Singapore and other countries find themselves inextricably a part of." Extract of Foreword By Dr. Kumar Ramakrishna Associate Professor
Content: 1- Strategic Foresight and Warning: An Introduction by Helene Lavoix 2- Risks and Opportunities: The Role of Strategic Foresight and Warning by Jan Eichstedt 3- Cognitive Biases: What We Think Affects the World -The Case of Climate Change and Terrorism by Marc Villot 4- The future of food security: complexity and a systemic approach by Ya-Yi Ong 5- Strategic foresight and warning, the United States (U.S.) Department of Defense and counterinsugency in Iraq by Justin M. Goldman 6- Framing the Future for ASEAN by Loh Woon Liang 7- Typhoon Ketsana and the effects of cognitive biases in a government’s strategic foresight and early warning capability by Gayedelle V. Florendo 8- Navigating Uncertainty: Understanding and Appreciating the Role of the Human Analyst by B.C. Tan
To understand the process linking nationalism and genocide, this study follows how nation-ness wa... more To understand the process linking nationalism and genocide, this study follows how nation-ness was created then evolved, tracing the dynamic content of Kampuchean-ness. It seeks thereby to comprehend why a genocidal process occurred in Cambodia from 1970 to 1979 and how Kampuchean-ness of 1970-1979 interacted with this genocidal process. The research is located within the conceptual framework of the English School of International Relations, which explicates the advent and imposition of the norm of nation-state upon the International Society and its members. It applies complexity theory, which explains the relationships between the parts and the whole. It considers nationalism and nation-ness as a property that emerges from the interactions between the parts, here the encounter between France and the Kampuchean polity, reaches the systemic level and from then imposes itself upon polities. The study analyses the process of this emergence/imposition and its evolution. Using archival data, this analysis argues that this process can be conceived as a feedback spiral between authority and opposition/rebellion. This feedback spiral is an ideal-type of a polity’s evolution that allows integrating emerging changes, notably in terms of beliefs, such as nationalism, and constituting the necessary and corresponding political authority. The feedback spiral results from the interactions between the actors’ ideas, analytically broken down as {belief; goal}s, that inform and create the actors’ understanding, and then prompt their actions and reactions. Out of this process, beliefs evolve, through which it is possible to trace the various elements of Kampuchean nation-ness. The study shows that a specific departure from the ideal-type, as happened in Cambodia between 1954 and 1970, led to a genocidal process, which is the genocidal version of the feedback spiral. The authority’s {belief; goal}s resulting from the abnormal feedback are a specific version of ‘normal’ nation-ness, contributing to genocidal actions.
The September 2022 Ukrainian counter-offensive against Russia is hailed as very successful. Ukrai... more The September 2022 Ukrainian counter-offensive against Russia is hailed as very successful. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky thanked the “true heroes” who allowed for a “very rapid liberation” of 8000 sq km by 14 September 22 “in the east, notably in the Kharkiv Oblast, and the south, notably in the Kherson oblast”, (e.g. BBC News, 12 September 22; CNN, 14 September 22).
Yet, U.S. President Joe Biden and other American officials, as well as Germany Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht first cautioned against a feeling of “premature victory”, of a “turning point in the war”, even though they acknowledge the territorial gains (Lolita Baldor and Ellen Knickmeyer, “US leaders avoid victory dance in Ukraine combat advances“, AP, 13 September 22; Reuters, “Too early to tell if Ukraine counter-offensive is turning point, Germany says“, 14 September 22). As time passed, on 18 September, President Biden appeared as far more confident in an interview, stating that “They’re defeating Russia” (Reuters, “Zelenskiy vows no let-up as Ukraine says troops cross Oskil river in northeast“, 19 September 2022).
What lies ahead?
With this article we shall first briefly stress why it is important to look at a comprehensive set of scenarios, and why it matters even more in the context of a war where information is degraded by the use of propaganda or psyops. Then, we shall focus not on the scenario favoured in the West, which predicts a victory of Ukraine, as this scenario is well-known, but describe another scenario, different from the most common narrative. We shall call it the Red Scenario, in reference to red teaming (taking the point of view of the enemy). We mainly present explanations rather than scenario narrative (story-telling), using maps tracking the evolution of the control of the terrain in Ukraine by the two protagonists and established daily by the Institute for the Study of War. First we present our key hypotheses and then develop an explanatory narrative according to phases during the war.
The whole world is caught in a battle of giants with the U.S. on the one hand and China on the ot... more The whole world is caught in a battle of giants with the U.S. on the one hand and China on the other. This confrontation takes place at different levels and through all forms and dimensions of power. The escalation towards war is at work. War is not inevitable, it is however likely. To best survive the escalation and possibly the war, we must understand its multiple aspects. State actors, for their part, should act according to their own national interest considering the forces at work. In this article we focus on the systemic and normative dimension of the conflict between China and the U.S.. First, we briefly explain the dimensions of the confrontation, systemic and interstate. We look then at two interrelated approaches for the systemic dimension: the evolution of the relative power of states and the struggle for norms and international order and consequences on war. Finally, we examine examples of Chinese global strategic communication (aka “propaganda“) at normative level, looking at seven short videos published on official Chinese Youtube channels dealing with various issues, from the ecology to NATO’s expansion through the U.S. essential wrongdoing.
... Sihanouk decreed the end of the dissidence on 20 June 1967, which was followed by a heavy she... more ... Sihanouk decreed the end of the dissidence on 20 June 1967, which was followed by a heavy shelling of the previously rebel villages, some “such as Beng Khtum, Thvak and Russey Preas were burnt to the ground” ***(Kiernan, 1982: 173; Osborne, 1979). ...
An update on the content of the American national interest for the first part of the Biden's pres... more An update on the content of the American national interest for the first part of the Biden's presidency. Besides highlighting classical enemies, this update seeks to make sense of the puzzle constituted by America's actions regarding allies, with the example of the case of the Franco-Australian submarines contract.
The paper is accompanied by a related video as means to vulgarise international relations understanding.
In this article, we present first what is information warfare, using mainly American doctrine. Th... more In this article, we present first what is information warfare, using mainly American doctrine. Then, we turn to Ukraine and some of the features of its information warfare, and give examples of its “strategic communications”. We highlight what can be seen as success, but also point out more worrying potential consequences.
This article addresses a very specific challenge the world and security institutions, notably tho... more This article addresses a very specific challenge the world and security institutions, notably those having as mission to provide intelligence, must currently face: their adaptation to a present and future conceptualized differently from the old Cold War worldview or from the following “Davos paradigm” and incorporating real life threats and dangers perceived as new.
It will show that such notions as energy, food, health, mineral resources, or ecosystem and environmental changes need to be reincorporated within the primary mission of intelligence, besides more traditional issues, not just because one needs to change but because those dangers and threats do belong to the very idea of security, and that to be able to do that in a timely fashion strategic foresight and warning must be fully integrated within intelligence. The first section of the article will set the general stage, going back to the basics of what security is, starting with its most straightforward definition and then showing
consequences in terms of political organization. The second section will emphasize the unbreakable relationship between security and intelligence, and revisit from this perspective existing definitions and characteristics of intelligence. Finally, building upon the two previous sections, the last part will focus on the integration of strategic foresight and warning within an intelligence function seen as the understanding capability of political authorities that needs to be implemented or reinforced to face the challenges of the present and future.
Historically, people and their governments have not understood or been prepared for the social, e... more Historically, people and their governments have not understood or been prepared for the social, economic, and political instability that can result from energy scarcity or deterioration of the environment. Rapa Nui (Easter Island) is an example from centuries ago where an isolated population irreversibly damaged its finite resources. The cutting of trees to move stone statues had a cascade effect on other resources and led to a dramatic decline in both population and prosperity (Diamond, 2005; Fagan, 2008; Pointing, 1991). More recently, in Darfur, human struggle over access to oil resources, compounded by problems wrought by persistent drought, produced both socioeconomic isolation and regional ethnic disconnection, magnifying a conflict that displaced nearly 2.5 million people (International Crisis Group — Sudan). We contend that disasters such as these can be mitigated or even averted if the complex connections and dependencies of the issues involved can be revealed and if there ...
The RSIS Working Paper series presents papers in a preliminary form and serves to stimulate comme... more The RSIS Working Paper series presents papers in a preliminary form and serves to stimulate comment and discussion. The views expressed are entirely the author's own and not that of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. If you have any comments, please send ...
"This collection of essays is intended to showcase the potentially wide applicability of Strategi... more "This collection of essays is intended to showcase the potentially wide applicability of Strategic Foresight and Warning approaches and concepts. These provide a suite of useful analytical tools for busy analysts within and outside government. Such tools may well be timely as policy analysts everywhere face the demanding task of having to make sense of an often bewildering variety of often- linked transnational security threats, challenges and opportunities that comprise the complex milieu within which Singapore and other countries find themselves inextricably a part of." Extract of Foreword By Dr. Kumar Ramakrishna Associate Professor
Content: 1- Strategic Foresight and Warning: An Introduction by Helene Lavoix 2- Risks and Opportunities: The Role of Strategic Foresight and Warning by Jan Eichstedt 3- Cognitive Biases: What We Think Affects the World -The Case of Climate Change and Terrorism by Marc Villot 4- The future of food security: complexity and a systemic approach by Ya-Yi Ong 5- Strategic foresight and warning, the United States (U.S.) Department of Defense and counterinsugency in Iraq by Justin M. Goldman 6- Framing the Future for ASEAN by Loh Woon Liang 7- Typhoon Ketsana and the effects of cognitive biases in a government’s strategic foresight and early warning capability by Gayedelle V. Florendo 8- Navigating Uncertainty: Understanding and Appreciating the Role of the Human Analyst by B.C. Tan
To understand the process linking nationalism and genocide, this study follows how nation-ness wa... more To understand the process linking nationalism and genocide, this study follows how nation-ness was created then evolved, tracing the dynamic content of Kampuchean-ness. It seeks thereby to comprehend why a genocidal process occurred in Cambodia from 1970 to 1979 and how Kampuchean-ness of 1970-1979 interacted with this genocidal process. The research is located within the conceptual framework of the English School of International Relations, which explicates the advent and imposition of the norm of nation-state upon the International Society and its members. It applies complexity theory, which explains the relationships between the parts and the whole. It considers nationalism and nation-ness as a property that emerges from the interactions between the parts, here the encounter between France and the Kampuchean polity, reaches the systemic level and from then imposes itself upon polities. The study analyses the process of this emergence/imposition and its evolution. Using archival data, this analysis argues that this process can be conceived as a feedback spiral between authority and opposition/rebellion. This feedback spiral is an ideal-type of a polity’s evolution that allows integrating emerging changes, notably in terms of beliefs, such as nationalism, and constituting the necessary and corresponding political authority. The feedback spiral results from the interactions between the actors’ ideas, analytically broken down as {belief; goal}s, that inform and create the actors’ understanding, and then prompt their actions and reactions. Out of this process, beliefs evolve, through which it is possible to trace the various elements of Kampuchean nation-ness. The study shows that a specific departure from the ideal-type, as happened in Cambodia between 1954 and 1970, led to a genocidal process, which is the genocidal version of the feedback spiral. The authority’s {belief; goal}s resulting from the abnormal feedback are a specific version of ‘normal’ nation-ness, contributing to genocidal actions.
The September 2022 Ukrainian counter-offensive against Russia is hailed as very successful. Ukrai... more The September 2022 Ukrainian counter-offensive against Russia is hailed as very successful. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky thanked the “true heroes” who allowed for a “very rapid liberation” of 8000 sq km by 14 September 22 “in the east, notably in the Kharkiv Oblast, and the south, notably in the Kherson oblast”, (e.g. BBC News, 12 September 22; CNN, 14 September 22).
Yet, U.S. President Joe Biden and other American officials, as well as Germany Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht first cautioned against a feeling of “premature victory”, of a “turning point in the war”, even though they acknowledge the territorial gains (Lolita Baldor and Ellen Knickmeyer, “US leaders avoid victory dance in Ukraine combat advances“, AP, 13 September 22; Reuters, “Too early to tell if Ukraine counter-offensive is turning point, Germany says“, 14 September 22). As time passed, on 18 September, President Biden appeared as far more confident in an interview, stating that “They’re defeating Russia” (Reuters, “Zelenskiy vows no let-up as Ukraine says troops cross Oskil river in northeast“, 19 September 2022).
What lies ahead?
With this article we shall first briefly stress why it is important to look at a comprehensive set of scenarios, and why it matters even more in the context of a war where information is degraded by the use of propaganda or psyops. Then, we shall focus not on the scenario favoured in the West, which predicts a victory of Ukraine, as this scenario is well-known, but describe another scenario, different from the most common narrative. We shall call it the Red Scenario, in reference to red teaming (taking the point of view of the enemy). We mainly present explanations rather than scenario narrative (story-telling), using maps tracking the evolution of the control of the terrain in Ukraine by the two protagonists and established daily by the Institute for the Study of War. First we present our key hypotheses and then develop an explanatory narrative according to phases during the war.
The whole world is caught in a battle of giants with the U.S. on the one hand and China on the ot... more The whole world is caught in a battle of giants with the U.S. on the one hand and China on the other. This confrontation takes place at different levels and through all forms and dimensions of power. The escalation towards war is at work. War is not inevitable, it is however likely. To best survive the escalation and possibly the war, we must understand its multiple aspects. State actors, for their part, should act according to their own national interest considering the forces at work. In this article we focus on the systemic and normative dimension of the conflict between China and the U.S.. First, we briefly explain the dimensions of the confrontation, systemic and interstate. We look then at two interrelated approaches for the systemic dimension: the evolution of the relative power of states and the struggle for norms and international order and consequences on war. Finally, we examine examples of Chinese global strategic communication (aka “propaganda“) at normative level, looking at seven short videos published on official Chinese Youtube channels dealing with various issues, from the ecology to NATO’s expansion through the U.S. essential wrongdoing.
... Sihanouk decreed the end of the dissidence on 20 June 1967, which was followed by a heavy she... more ... Sihanouk decreed the end of the dissidence on 20 June 1967, which was followed by a heavy shelling of the previously rebel villages, some “such as Beng Khtum, Thvak and Russey Preas were burnt to the ground” ***(Kiernan, 1982: 173; Osborne, 1979). ...
An update on the content of the American national interest for the first part of the Biden's pres... more An update on the content of the American national interest for the first part of the Biden's presidency. Besides highlighting classical enemies, this update seeks to make sense of the puzzle constituted by America's actions regarding allies, with the example of the case of the Franco-Australian submarines contract.
The paper is accompanied by a related video as means to vulgarise international relations understanding.
In this article, we present first what is information warfare, using mainly American doctrine. Th... more In this article, we present first what is information warfare, using mainly American doctrine. Then, we turn to Ukraine and some of the features of its information warfare, and give examples of its “strategic communications”. We highlight what can be seen as success, but also point out more worrying potential consequences.
This article addresses a very specific challenge the world and security institutions, notably tho... more This article addresses a very specific challenge the world and security institutions, notably those having as mission to provide intelligence, must currently face: their adaptation to a present and future conceptualized differently from the old Cold War worldview or from the following “Davos paradigm” and incorporating real life threats and dangers perceived as new.
It will show that such notions as energy, food, health, mineral resources, or ecosystem and environmental changes need to be reincorporated within the primary mission of intelligence, besides more traditional issues, not just because one needs to change but because those dangers and threats do belong to the very idea of security, and that to be able to do that in a timely fashion strategic foresight and warning must be fully integrated within intelligence. The first section of the article will set the general stage, going back to the basics of what security is, starting with its most straightforward definition and then showing
consequences in terms of political organization. The second section will emphasize the unbreakable relationship between security and intelligence, and revisit from this perspective existing definitions and characteristics of intelligence. Finally, building upon the two previous sections, the last part will focus on the integration of strategic foresight and warning within an intelligence function seen as the understanding capability of political authorities that needs to be implemented or reinforced to face the challenges of the present and future.
Historically, people and their governments have not understood or been prepared for the social, e... more Historically, people and their governments have not understood or been prepared for the social, economic, and political instability that can result from energy scarcity or deterioration of the environment. Rapa Nui (Easter Island) is an example from centuries ago where an isolated population irreversibly damaged its finite resources. The cutting of trees to move stone statues had a cascade effect on other resources and led to a dramatic decline in both population and prosperity (Diamond, 2005; Fagan, 2008; Pointing, 1991). More recently, in Darfur, human struggle over access to oil resources, compounded by problems wrought by persistent drought, produced both socioeconomic isolation and regional ethnic disconnection, magnifying a conflict that displaced nearly 2.5 million people (International Crisis Group — Sudan). We contend that disasters such as these can be mitigated or even averted if the complex connections and dependencies of the issues involved can be revealed and if there ...
The RSIS Working Paper series presents papers in a preliminary form and serves to stimulate comme... more The RSIS Working Paper series presents papers in a preliminary form and serves to stimulate comment and discussion. The views expressed are entirely the author's own and not that of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. If you have any comments, please send ...
Google has reportedly achieved the famous Quantum Supremacy, as the Financial Times first reporte... more Google has reportedly achieved the famous Quantum Supremacy, as the Financial Times first reported on 20 September 2019. Indeed, the NASA/Google claim “that our processor takes about 200 seconds to sample one instance of the quantum circuit 1 million times, a state-of-the-art supercomputer would require approximately 10,000 years to perform the equivalent task.” This would mean indeed quantum supremacy, i.e. out-powering even the most powerful classical computer with a quantum computer for a computing task (for more explanations, see The Coming Quantum Computing Disruption, Artificial Intelligence and Geopolitics (1)).
Foreseeing the Future Quantum-Artificial Intelligence World and Geopolitics The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly – 19 September 2019 Towards a U.S.-China War?(2): Military Tensions in the Warming Arctic Mapping the Chinese Private Actors Race to Quantum ★ The Chinese BATX in the Race to Quantum Computing: from Research to Venture Capital through Drugs and Fintech “Made in China 2025” in Trouble? – Signal Mapping the Race to Quantum Computing: The UK National Quantum Technologies Programme Cybersecurity, ANSSI 10th Anniversary and the Agora 41 The paper describing this achievement was, however, then removed from the NASA website, the initial publisher. We can find, of course, cached versions of the paper, for example here (Bing cache) and here (pdf on a google drive). Furthermore, Bing specified it cached the page in … 2006, possibly deepening the mystery. As a result, the web is abuzz with discussions regarding the validity of the claim (e.g. Hacker News).
One way or another, this reminds us that a world with quantum computers is about to be born. All actors need to take this new future into account, in all its dimensions. This is even truer for those concerned with international security at large.
This article is the first of a new series that focuses on understanding the coming quantum-AI world. How will this future world look like? What will be the impacts on geopolitics and international security? When will these changes take place?
Previously, we highlighted how crucial it is to foresee the future quantum-AI world. First, imagining this world of tomorrow drives forward investments in quantum, thus the position in the race for quantum technologies. Second, and relatedly, displaying the right vision of the world of tomorrow will allow for readiness. In turn, that readiness will impact states’ relative power in the international system.
Thus, those countries that will lag behind may well pay a very high price in terms of independence, economic development and wealth, security and capability to protect themselves and their citizens from foreign aggression, etc. Companies that do not foresee the forthcoming quantum-AI world and do not embrace it adequately could similarly have to face a very high cost, become obsolete, fail and disappear.
Foreseeing the future quantum-AI world is thus a geopolitical and security imperative. Yet foreseeing the future quantum-AI world is also particularly difficult. We explain why in the first part of this article. We then present a framework to move forward ...
The confrontation between the U.S. and China underline the immense interests involved. Notably, t... more The confrontation between the U.S. and China underline the immense interests involved. Notably, the new technologies, from artificial intelligence (AI) in its multiple forms to the internet of things (IoT) and communication, through the quantum information sciences (QIS) and technologies, participate in a paradigmatic change, which also includes governance, international power and the way wars may be fought and won. In this paper, we shall focus on such possible new faces of security in general and war in particular. These potential – and already operating – changes stem from the complex dynamics that have been unleashed. As we found out previously, the difficult march towards advanced robots, added to the strong interest stakeholders have in obtaining Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems, notably Deep-Learning (DL), which are operational and profitable, lead to an unexpected consequence. Human beings themselves are increasingly being dragged into the ecosystem of AI-agents. They are actually turned into the actuators of algorithms.
We shall first look at what is happening and explain how human beings become the actuators of AI-agents, giving examples. Then we shall sketch a scenario explaining how this evolution could lead to a dystopian future where a state actor mastering AI-agents could win a war in a new way.
Third, we shall turn to the digital and the material world and to the bridges between them. We shall highlight that the need to see AI developing will also lead to a further dematerialisation of the world, with, as extreme, virtual reality. However, we shall explain that total dematerialisation is impossible and comes with a major hidden cost, rising energy consumption, with thus impacts on climate-change. We shall also highlight how users’ countries bear the brunt of the burden and face major systemic threats. Finally, we shall identify a way for them to preempt these systemic threats, in an interesting strategic twist.
Our latest article seeks to assess the future of the Yellow Vest protest movement and of the situ... more Our latest article seeks to assess the future of the Yellow Vest protest movement and of the situation in France. It looks at the way the actions of political authorities can or could stabilise a protest movement. Then it applies this understanding to the French movement. Extract "Needless to say, the impact of a revolutionary France would be huge. Indeed, France has a permanent seat at the UN Security council, and is the 6th largest economic power (Business Today, 22 Nov 2018). It also has a crucial place and weight in the EU. It is thus imperative for all actors to closely monitor the events in France. Indeed, the basic rule of risk management or strategic foresight is to pay attention to high impact events, even if the probability to see such an event taking place is low (below 20%). And, in the case in France, as we shall show below, this likelihood is not that low, even if it is not highly probable (above 80%) either." Read more...
Sensors and "Expressors" for Deep Learning/AI:
Beyond hype and hatred, this article focuses on t... more Sensors and "Expressors" for Deep Learning/AI:
Beyond hype and hatred, this article focuses on the way Artificial Intelligence (AI) – actually Deep Learning – is integrated in reality. This operationalisation demands to develop a different way to look at AI and the resulting understanding allows highlighting the importance of sensors and “expressors”, the twin interface between AI and its environment. This interface is a potentially disruptive driver for AI.
I use two case studies to progressively explain what sensor and “expressor” are and thus details the twin interface between the AI-agent and its environment. As a result and third, we highlight that one understands best AI as a sequence. That understanding allows us envisioning a whole future world of economic activities. That world is, however, not without danger and we highlight that it will demand a new type of security. Finally, we shall point out the necessity to distinguish the types of reality the AI sequence bridges....
Ongoing scientific and technological innovations related to the quantum universe have the potenti... more Ongoing scientific and technological innovations related to the quantum universe have the potential to fundamentally alter the world as we know it, while also accelerating and even disrupting more specifically the field of artificial intelligence (AI). Advances in quantum technologies have been dubbed the “Second Quantum Revolution”. In this article we shall explain what is this quantum revolution, then narrow it down to where it interacts with AI, indeed potentially accelerating and disrupting current dynamics. This article is aimed at non-quantum physicists, from the analysts to decision-makers and policy-makers through interested and concerned readers, who need to understand Quantum technologies because the latter will revolutionise the world in general, and AI in particular, as well as governance, management, politics and geopolitics notably when combined with AI.
Strategic Foresight and Warning (SF&W), as an organized and systematic process to reduce uncertai... more Strategic Foresight and Warning (SF&W), as an organized and systematic process to reduce uncertainty regarding the future for conventional and unconventional national security, must help us identifying the frontiers of plausibility within which changes within our surroundings are most likely to take place within a specific period of time. It is thus imperative that SF&W considers the real world. Now, the world is increasingly described and thought about as complex, and complexity science is a growing multi-disciplinary discipline. Thus, if the world is (often) complex, then SF&W can ignore neither this complexity nor the science that studies it. Yet, complexity, notably in literature and advice related to approaches to the future, has sometimes been used to underline the unpredictability of the world. Thus, does considering the complex nature of the world defeat the very purpose of SF&W? We shall show that not only complexity does not undermine SF&W but, on the contrary, must be fully embraced to enhance results. We shall first address some of the pitfalls and dangers that may result from analogies with hard science and that may have implied this (false) belief in unpredictability, using the two examples of chaos and quantum science. We shall then go back to fundamentals of complexity science, and explain how and why they matter to SF&W, using notably the (past) example of nationalism. Finally we shall underline a few ways forward that would contribute to better link SF&W and complexity.
The world has become increasingly unpredictable, volatile and complex. Recent global events that ... more The world has become increasingly unpredictable, volatile and complex. Recent global events that support this perspective include September 11, SARS and H1N1, soaring energy prices, the 2007 global financial crisis, the 2008 food crisis, and the volcanic eruption that paralyzed air traffic in Europe. Governments have increasingly been caught off-guard by these and many other crises. In this operating landscape, the ability to anticipate strategic surprises becomes highly valuable.
In this lecture, Dr Helene Lavoix will introduce the concepts behind strategic anticipation as well as various tools for strategic foresight and warning. She will examine the practice of strategic anticipation within the context of the government, and review its challenges.
Considering the uncertainties and challenges of the century, this presentation, using the case of... more Considering the uncertainties and challenges of the century, this presentation, using the case of energy security, will argue that Strategic Foresight and Warning should not only increasingly be used and developed within governments but also that this should be done with full and active participation of the scholarly community, across all disciplines. After having presented “energy security” in its multidimensionality, pointing out the challenges faced while analyzing the issue and its impacts notably in the framework of policy –orientated research, we shall introduce Strategic Foresight and Warning, underlining how it can contribute to solve some of the difficulties previously identified. Finally, we shall focus on a real case study of strategic foresight applied to “energy security,” explaining methodology, challenges, and potential ways forward.
This presentation will outline some of the major challenges faced today by Strategic Early Warnin... more This presentation will outline some of the major challenges faced today by Strategic Early Warning Systems. These were identified in a study commissioned by the French ministère des Affaires Etrangères, Direction Générale de la Coopération Internationale et du Développement, Bureau de la Prévention des Conflits et de la Reconstruction, grounded in interviews with practitioners of warning. Current efforts at finding solutions will be presented with specific examples taken mainly from the French system. If we conceive of warning as a process, each of its main constitutive phases must face specific yet related challenges. While a world in transition stresses the necessity to define objectives and to care specifically for the foresight and reconnaissance phase, having to deal with global warning issues - i.e. interconnected across space and fields - creates particular difficulties. As a consequence, the designs underlying monitoring and surveillance systems will have to address problems linked to the models used and to organisation, collaboration being demanded by the global character of issues, strain on resources and emergence of new actors in the practice of warning. Finally, a few strategies used to best deliver warning to customers will be outlined.
The results of the evaluation of our 2012 predictions' sample show a widespread conventional view... more The results of the evaluation of our 2012 predictions' sample show a widespread conventional view of national security, whilst novel issues are being ignored; a relative inability to assess timing whilst our understanding of issues fares relatively well; the existence of major biases, notably regarding China, Russia, and the U.S; the difficulty of prediction for novel issues and old issues in new context.
This post presents the experiment - assessing a sample of open source "predictions" for the year ... more This post presents the experiment - assessing a sample of open source "predictions" for the year 2012 - addresses the methodological problems encountered while creating the evaluation itself, and underlines lessons learned.
A review of Taleb's points in The Black Swan that could be useful as rules for foresight and warn... more A review of Taleb's points in The Black Swan that could be useful as rules for foresight and warning analysis.
As the label "black swans" is increasingly used but with different interpretations, this post rev... more As the label "black swans" is increasingly used but with different interpretations, this post reviews Taleb's bestseller, the meaning of black swans events and evaluates if the author truly points to the absurdity of foresight.
The Economist shows the lead in a courageous yet hardly ever done exercise: going back to our own... more The Economist shows the lead in a courageous yet hardly ever done exercise: going back to our own foresight and assess, in the light of the present, what was right and what was wrong. It provides us with an example of how such lessons learned could be endeavoured, underlines questions that should be asked and key challenges for anticipation, and exemplifies how biases can derail foresight.
Assessing if we are about to see a paradigm shift is twice crucial. First, and foremost, as human... more Assessing if we are about to see a paradigm shift is twice crucial. First, and foremost, as human beings living within societies, if such a change happens, then we need to be ready for the upheavals that precede and accompany such deep revolutions, as stakes, both ideological and material, are at work to try blocking change. Second it must be integrated in any analysis if we are to understand current events.
We most probably need to get ready for a 2C global temperatures’ increase and its harsh impact on... more We most probably need to get ready for a 2C global temperatures’ increase and its harsh impact on the world relatively rapidly, as a temperatures’ rise of 6C – and above – by the end of the century is increasingly probable. Indeed, interests and current challenges and tensions are most likely to favour shale fuels’ production and policies and adversely affect “green efforts”. Other adverse ecological impacts on global security issues such as water and biodiversity may be enhanced and must be monitored. Citizens’ mobilization on those issues may evolve as trade-offs will be done, and as impacts will be felt.
Following the 14 November 2012 strikes, the likely pattern that is emerging is a rising polarizat... more Following the 14 November 2012 strikes, the likely pattern that is emerging is a rising polarization within Western society – or societies – with more demonstrations and protests in the near future, which will probably expand in terms of participation, geographical scope and content of demands. Dismissal – easily interpreted as despise – absence of satisfying answer and feeling of unfairness will most likely enhance tension, opening the door to violence under various forms.
On 5th November 2012, through #OpVendetta and #OpJubilee, Anonymous plans to re-enact the final s... more On 5th November 2012, through #OpVendetta and #OpJubilee, Anonymous plans to re-enact the final scene of the film V for Vendetta in London (possibly Europe and North America) as protest against the policies made to answer the crisis. The mobilization itself shows an interesting political evolution of the movement.
The various protest movements happening throughout the world, notably the Western world, are read... more The various protest movements happening throughout the world, notably the Western world, are read and understood as part of a new opposition nexus. Out of the interactions between the new opposition nexus and the existing political authorities nexus (that includes all political actors that contributed to create the existing system, the system that needs to be changed) that the new needed socio-political organisation will be progressively created.
Lors de son intervention, Dr Lavoix explique les enjeux géopolitiques liés au dépassement des lim... more Lors de son intervention, Dr Lavoix explique les enjeux géopolitiques liés au dépassement des limites planétaires, de la compétition pour l'accès aux ressources à l'instabilité croissante du monde, sans oublier l'émergence de nouveaux espaces de compétition géopolitique, comme avec l'exemple des grands fonds marins.
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Books by Helene Lavoix
Content:
1- Strategic Foresight and Warning: An Introduction by Helene Lavoix
2- Risks and Opportunities: The Role of Strategic Foresight and Warning by Jan Eichstedt
3- Cognitive Biases: What We Think Affects the World -The Case of Climate Change and Terrorism by Marc Villot
4- The future of food security: complexity and a systemic approach by Ya-Yi Ong
5- Strategic foresight and warning, the United States (U.S.) Department of Defense and counterinsugency in Iraq by Justin M. Goldman
6- Framing the Future for ASEAN by Loh Woon Liang
7- Typhoon Ketsana and the effects of cognitive biases in a government’s strategic foresight and early warning capability by Gayedelle V. Florendo
8- Navigating Uncertainty: Understanding and Appreciating the Role of the Human Analyst by B.C. Tan
The research is located within the conceptual framework of the English School of International Relations, which explicates the advent and imposition of the norm of nation-state upon the International Society and its members. It applies complexity theory, which explains the relationships between the parts and the whole. It considers nationalism and nation-ness as a property that emerges from the interactions between the parts, here the encounter between France and the Kampuchean polity, reaches the systemic level and from then imposes itself upon polities. The study analyses the process of this emergence/imposition and its evolution.
Using archival data, this analysis argues that this process can be conceived as a feedback spiral between authority and opposition/rebellion. This feedback spiral is an ideal-type of a polity’s evolution that allows integrating emerging changes, notably in terms of beliefs, such as nationalism, and constituting the necessary and corresponding political authority. The feedback spiral results from the interactions between the actors’ ideas, analytically broken down as {belief; goal}s, that inform and create the actors’ understanding, and then prompt their actions and reactions. Out of this process, beliefs evolve, through which it is possible to trace the various elements of Kampuchean nation-ness.
The study shows that a specific departure from the ideal-type, as happened in Cambodia between 1954 and 1970, led to a genocidal process, which is the genocidal version of the feedback spiral. The authority’s {belief; goal}s resulting from the abnormal feedback are a specific version of ‘normal’ nation-ness, contributing to genocidal actions.
Papers by Helene Lavoix
Yet, U.S. President Joe Biden and other American officials, as well as Germany Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht first cautioned against a feeling of “premature victory”, of a “turning point in the war”, even though they acknowledge the territorial gains (Lolita Baldor and Ellen Knickmeyer, “US leaders avoid victory dance in Ukraine combat advances“, AP, 13 September 22; Reuters, “Too early to tell if Ukraine counter-offensive is turning point, Germany says“, 14 September 22). As time passed, on 18 September, President Biden appeared as far more confident in an interview, stating that “They’re defeating Russia” (Reuters, “Zelenskiy vows no let-up as Ukraine says troops cross Oskil river in northeast“, 19 September 2022).
What lies ahead?
With this article we shall first briefly stress why it is important to look at a comprehensive set of scenarios, and why it matters even more in the context of a war where information is degraded by the use of propaganda or psyops. Then, we shall focus not on the scenario favoured in the West, which predicts a victory of Ukraine, as this scenario is well-known, but describe another scenario, different from the most common narrative. We shall call it the Red Scenario, in reference to red teaming (taking the point of view of the enemy). We mainly present explanations rather than scenario narrative (story-telling), using maps tracking the evolution of the control of the terrain in Ukraine by the two protagonists and established daily by the Institute for the Study of War. First we present our key hypotheses and then develop an explanatory narrative according to phases during the war.
In this article we focus on the systemic and normative dimension of the conflict between China and the U.S..
First, we briefly explain the dimensions of the confrontation, systemic and interstate. We look then at two interrelated approaches for the systemic dimension: the evolution of the relative power of states and the struggle for norms and international order and consequences on war. Finally, we examine examples of Chinese global strategic communication (aka “propaganda“) at normative level, looking at seven short videos published on official Chinese Youtube channels dealing with various issues, from the ecology to NATO’s expansion through the U.S. essential wrongdoing.
The paper is accompanied by a related video as means to vulgarise international relations understanding.
It will show that such notions as energy, food, health, mineral resources, or ecosystem and environmental changes need to be reincorporated within the primary mission of intelligence, besides more traditional issues, not just because one needs to change but because those dangers and threats do belong to the very idea of security, and that to be able to do that in a timely fashion strategic foresight and warning must be fully integrated within intelligence. The first section of the article will set the general stage, going back to the basics of what security is, starting with its most straightforward definition and then showing
consequences in terms of political organization. The second section will emphasize the unbreakable relationship between security and intelligence, and revisit from this perspective existing definitions and characteristics of intelligence. Finally, building upon the two previous sections, the last part will focus on the integration of strategic foresight and warning within an intelligence function seen as the understanding capability of political authorities that needs to be implemented or reinforced to face the challenges of the present and future.
Content:
1- Strategic Foresight and Warning: An Introduction by Helene Lavoix
2- Risks and Opportunities: The Role of Strategic Foresight and Warning by Jan Eichstedt
3- Cognitive Biases: What We Think Affects the World -The Case of Climate Change and Terrorism by Marc Villot
4- The future of food security: complexity and a systemic approach by Ya-Yi Ong
5- Strategic foresight and warning, the United States (U.S.) Department of Defense and counterinsugency in Iraq by Justin M. Goldman
6- Framing the Future for ASEAN by Loh Woon Liang
7- Typhoon Ketsana and the effects of cognitive biases in a government’s strategic foresight and early warning capability by Gayedelle V. Florendo
8- Navigating Uncertainty: Understanding and Appreciating the Role of the Human Analyst by B.C. Tan
The research is located within the conceptual framework of the English School of International Relations, which explicates the advent and imposition of the norm of nation-state upon the International Society and its members. It applies complexity theory, which explains the relationships between the parts and the whole. It considers nationalism and nation-ness as a property that emerges from the interactions between the parts, here the encounter between France and the Kampuchean polity, reaches the systemic level and from then imposes itself upon polities. The study analyses the process of this emergence/imposition and its evolution.
Using archival data, this analysis argues that this process can be conceived as a feedback spiral between authority and opposition/rebellion. This feedback spiral is an ideal-type of a polity’s evolution that allows integrating emerging changes, notably in terms of beliefs, such as nationalism, and constituting the necessary and corresponding political authority. The feedback spiral results from the interactions between the actors’ ideas, analytically broken down as {belief; goal}s, that inform and create the actors’ understanding, and then prompt their actions and reactions. Out of this process, beliefs evolve, through which it is possible to trace the various elements of Kampuchean nation-ness.
The study shows that a specific departure from the ideal-type, as happened in Cambodia between 1954 and 1970, led to a genocidal process, which is the genocidal version of the feedback spiral. The authority’s {belief; goal}s resulting from the abnormal feedback are a specific version of ‘normal’ nation-ness, contributing to genocidal actions.
Yet, U.S. President Joe Biden and other American officials, as well as Germany Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht first cautioned against a feeling of “premature victory”, of a “turning point in the war”, even though they acknowledge the territorial gains (Lolita Baldor and Ellen Knickmeyer, “US leaders avoid victory dance in Ukraine combat advances“, AP, 13 September 22; Reuters, “Too early to tell if Ukraine counter-offensive is turning point, Germany says“, 14 September 22). As time passed, on 18 September, President Biden appeared as far more confident in an interview, stating that “They’re defeating Russia” (Reuters, “Zelenskiy vows no let-up as Ukraine says troops cross Oskil river in northeast“, 19 September 2022).
What lies ahead?
With this article we shall first briefly stress why it is important to look at a comprehensive set of scenarios, and why it matters even more in the context of a war where information is degraded by the use of propaganda or psyops. Then, we shall focus not on the scenario favoured in the West, which predicts a victory of Ukraine, as this scenario is well-known, but describe another scenario, different from the most common narrative. We shall call it the Red Scenario, in reference to red teaming (taking the point of view of the enemy). We mainly present explanations rather than scenario narrative (story-telling), using maps tracking the evolution of the control of the terrain in Ukraine by the two protagonists and established daily by the Institute for the Study of War. First we present our key hypotheses and then develop an explanatory narrative according to phases during the war.
In this article we focus on the systemic and normative dimension of the conflict between China and the U.S..
First, we briefly explain the dimensions of the confrontation, systemic and interstate. We look then at two interrelated approaches for the systemic dimension: the evolution of the relative power of states and the struggle for norms and international order and consequences on war. Finally, we examine examples of Chinese global strategic communication (aka “propaganda“) at normative level, looking at seven short videos published on official Chinese Youtube channels dealing with various issues, from the ecology to NATO’s expansion through the U.S. essential wrongdoing.
The paper is accompanied by a related video as means to vulgarise international relations understanding.
It will show that such notions as energy, food, health, mineral resources, or ecosystem and environmental changes need to be reincorporated within the primary mission of intelligence, besides more traditional issues, not just because one needs to change but because those dangers and threats do belong to the very idea of security, and that to be able to do that in a timely fashion strategic foresight and warning must be fully integrated within intelligence. The first section of the article will set the general stage, going back to the basics of what security is, starting with its most straightforward definition and then showing
consequences in terms of political organization. The second section will emphasize the unbreakable relationship between security and intelligence, and revisit from this perspective existing definitions and characteristics of intelligence. Finally, building upon the two previous sections, the last part will focus on the integration of strategic foresight and warning within an intelligence function seen as the understanding capability of political authorities that needs to be implemented or reinforced to face the challenges of the present and future.
Foreseeing the Future Quantum-Artificial Intelligence World and Geopolitics
The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly – 19 September 2019
Towards a U.S.-China War?(2): Military Tensions in the Warming Arctic
Mapping the Chinese Private Actors Race to Quantum
★ The Chinese BATX in the Race to Quantum Computing: from Research to Venture Capital through Drugs and Fintech
“Made in China 2025” in Trouble? – Signal
Mapping the Race to Quantum Computing: The UK National Quantum Technologies Programme
Cybersecurity, ANSSI 10th Anniversary and the Agora 41
The paper describing this achievement was, however, then removed from the NASA website, the initial publisher. We can find, of course, cached versions of the paper, for example here (Bing cache) and here (pdf on a google drive). Furthermore, Bing specified it cached the page in … 2006, possibly deepening the mystery. As a result, the web is abuzz with discussions regarding the validity of the claim (e.g. Hacker News).
One way or another, this reminds us that a world with quantum computers is about to be born. All actors need to take this new future into account, in all its dimensions. This is even truer for those concerned with international security at large.
This article is the first of a new series that focuses on understanding the coming quantum-AI world. How will this future world look like? What will be the impacts on geopolitics and international security? When will these changes take place?
Previously, we highlighted how crucial it is to foresee the future quantum-AI world. First, imagining this world of tomorrow drives forward investments in quantum, thus the position in the race for quantum technologies. Second, and relatedly, displaying the right vision of the world of tomorrow will allow for readiness. In turn, that readiness will impact states’ relative power in the international system.
Thus, those countries that will lag behind may well pay a very high price in terms of independence, economic development and wealth, security and capability to protect themselves and their citizens from foreign aggression, etc. Companies that do not foresee the forthcoming quantum-AI world and do not embrace it adequately could similarly have to face a very high cost, become obsolete, fail and disappear.
Foreseeing the future quantum-AI world is thus a geopolitical and security imperative. Yet foreseeing the future quantum-AI world is also particularly difficult. We explain why in the first part of this article. We then present a framework to move forward ...
In this paper, we shall focus on such possible new faces of security in general and war in particular. These potential – and already operating – changes stem from the complex dynamics that have been unleashed. As we found out previously, the difficult march towards advanced robots, added to the strong interest stakeholders have in obtaining Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems, notably Deep-Learning (DL), which are operational and profitable, lead to an unexpected consequence. Human beings themselves are increasingly being dragged into the ecosystem of AI-agents. They are actually turned into the actuators of algorithms.
We shall first look at what is happening and explain how human beings become the actuators of AI-agents, giving examples. Then we shall sketch a scenario explaining how this evolution could lead to a dystopian future where a state actor mastering AI-agents could win a war in a new way.
Third, we shall turn to the digital and the material world and to the bridges between them. We shall highlight that the need to see AI developing will also lead to a further dematerialisation of the world, with, as extreme, virtual reality. However, we shall explain that total dematerialisation is impossible and comes with a major hidden cost, rising energy consumption, with thus impacts on climate-change. We shall also highlight how users’ countries bear the brunt of the burden and face major systemic threats. Finally, we shall identify a way for them to preempt these systemic threats, in an interesting strategic twist.
Extract "Needless to say, the impact of a revolutionary France would be huge. Indeed, France has a permanent seat at the UN Security council, and is the 6th largest economic power (Business Today, 22 Nov 2018). It also has a crucial place and weight in the EU. It is thus imperative for all actors to closely monitor the events in France. Indeed, the basic rule of risk management or strategic foresight is to pay attention to high impact events, even if the probability to see such an event taking place is low (below 20%). And, in the case in France, as we shall show below, this likelihood is not that low, even if it is not highly probable (above 80%) either." Read more...
Beyond hype and hatred, this article focuses on the way Artificial Intelligence (AI) – actually Deep Learning – is integrated in reality. This operationalisation demands to develop a different way to look at AI and the resulting understanding allows highlighting the importance of sensors and “expressors”, the twin interface between AI and its environment. This interface is a potentially disruptive driver for AI.
I use two case studies to progressively explain what sensor and “expressor” are and thus details the twin interface between the AI-agent and its environment. As a result and third, we highlight that one understands best AI as a sequence. That understanding allows us envisioning a whole future world of economic activities. That world is, however, not without danger and we highlight that it will demand a new type of security. Finally, we shall point out the necessity to distinguish the types of reality the AI sequence bridges....
In this article we shall explain what is this quantum revolution, then narrow it down to where it interacts with AI, indeed potentially accelerating and disrupting current dynamics.
This article is aimed at non-quantum physicists, from the analysts to decision-makers and policy-makers through interested and concerned readers, who need to understand Quantum technologies because the latter will revolutionise the world in general, and AI in particular, as well as governance, management, politics and geopolitics notably when combined with AI.
In this lecture, Dr Helene Lavoix will introduce the concepts behind strategic anticipation as well as various tools for strategic foresight and warning. She will examine the practice of strategic anticipation within the context of the government, and review its challenges.
If we conceive of warning as a process, each of its main constitutive phases must face specific yet related challenges. While a world in transition stresses the necessity to define objectives and to care specifically for the foresight and reconnaissance phase, having to deal with global warning issues - i.e. interconnected across space and fields - creates particular difficulties. As a consequence, the designs underlying monitoring and surveillance systems will have to address problems linked to the models used and to organisation, collaboration being demanded by the global character of issues, strain on resources and emergence of new actors in the practice of warning. Finally, a few strategies used to best deliver warning to customers will be outlined.