Diesel vehicles offer greater fuel-efficiency and lower greenhouse gas emissions at a time when n... more Diesel vehicles offer greater fuel-efficiency and lower greenhouse gas emissions at a time when national governments seek to reduce the energy and climate impacts of the vehicle fleet. Policies that promote diesels like preferential fuel taxes, fuel economy standards and greenhouse gas emission standards can produce higher emissions of diesel particulate matter if diesel particulate filters or equivalent emission control technology is not in place. This can undermine the expected climate benefits of dieselization and increase impacts on public health. This paper takes a historical look at Europe to illustrate the degree to which dieselization and lax controls on particulate matter can undermine the potential benefits sought from diesel vehicles. We show that countries on the dieselization pathway can fully capture the value of diesels with the adoption of tailpipe emission standards equivalent to Euro 6 or Tier 2 for passenger cars, and fuel quality standards that limit the sulfur content of diesel fuel to no greater than 15 ppm. Adoption of these policies before or in parallel with adoption of fuel consumption and greenhouse gas standards can avert the negative impacts of dieselization.
We quantify the concentration changes and Radiative Forcing (RF) of short-lived atmospheric pollu... more We quantify the concentration changes and Radiative Forcing (RF) of short-lived atmospheric pollutants due to shipping emissions of NO , SO , CO, NMVOCs, BC and OC. We use high resolution ship emission inventories for the Arctic that are more suitable for regional scale evaluation than those used in former studies. A chemical transport model and a RF model are used to evaluate the time period 2004–2030, when we expect increasing traffic in the Arctic region. Two datasets for ship emissions are used that characterize the potential impact from shipping and the degree to which shipping controls may mitigate impacts: a high (HIGH) scenario and a low scenario with Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR) of black carbon in the Arctic. In MFR, BC emissions in the Arctic are reduced with 70 % representing a combination technology performance and/or reasonable advances in single-technology performance. Both scenarios result in moderate to substantial increases in concentrations of pollutants both globally and in the Arctic. Exceptions are black carbon in the MFR scenario, and sulfur species and organic carbon in both scenarios due to the future phase- in of current regulation that reduces fuel sulfur content. In the season with potential transit traffic through the Arctic in 2030 we find increased concentrations of all pollutants in large parts of the Arctic. Net global RFs from 2004–2030 of 53 mW m−2 (HIGH) and 73 mW m−2 (MFR) are similar to those found for preindustrial to present net global aircraft RF. The found warming contrasts with the cooling from his- torical ship emissions. The reason for this difference and the higher global forcing for the MFR scenario is mainly the reduced future fuel sulfur content resulting in less cooling from sulfate aerosols. The Arctic RF is largest in the HIGH scenario. In the HIGH scenario ozone dominates the RF during the transit season (August-October). RF due to BC in air, and snow and ice becomes significant during Arctic spring. For the HIGH scenario the net Arctic RF during Spring is 5 times higher than in winter.
Black carbon (BC) is strongly light-absorbing carbonaceous material emitted as solid particulate ... more Black carbon (BC) is strongly light-absorbing carbonaceous material emitted as solid particulate matter created through incomplete combustion of carbon-based fuels. BC contains more than 80 percent carbon by mass, a high fraction of which is sp2-bonded carbon, and when emitted forms aggregates of primary spherules between 20 and 50 nm in aerodynamic diameter.
Diesel vehicles offer greater fuel-efficiency and lower greenhouse gas emissions at a time when n... more Diesel vehicles offer greater fuel-efficiency and lower greenhouse gas emissions at a time when national governments seek to reduce the energy and climate impacts of the vehicle fleet. Policies that promote diesels like preferential fuel taxes, fuel economy standards and greenhouse gas emission standards can produce higher emissions of diesel particulate matter if diesel particulate filters or equivalent emission control technology is not in place. This can undermine the expected climate benefits of dieselization and increase impacts on public health. This paper takes a historical look at Europe to illustrate the degree to which dieselization and lax controls on particulate matter can undermine the potential benefits sought from diesel vehicles. We show that countries on the dieselization pathway can fully capture the value of diesels with the adoption of tailpipe emission standards equivalent to Euro 6 or Tier 2 for passenger cars, and fuel quality standards that limit the sulfur content of diesel fuel to no greater than 15 ppm. Adoption of these policies before or in parallel with adoption of fuel consumption and greenhouse gas standards can avert the negative impacts of dieselization.
We quantify the concentration changes and Radiative Forcing (RF) of short-lived atmospheric pollu... more We quantify the concentration changes and Radiative Forcing (RF) of short-lived atmospheric pollutants due to shipping emissions of NO , SO , CO, NMVOCs, BC and OC. We use high resolution ship emission inventories for the Arctic that are more suitable for regional scale evaluation than those used in former studies. A chemical transport model and a RF model are used to evaluate the time period 2004–2030, when we expect increasing traffic in the Arctic region. Two datasets for ship emissions are used that characterize the potential impact from shipping and the degree to which shipping controls may mitigate impacts: a high (HIGH) scenario and a low scenario with Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR) of black carbon in the Arctic. In MFR, BC emissions in the Arctic are reduced with 70 % representing a combination technology performance and/or reasonable advances in single-technology performance. Both scenarios result in moderate to substantial increases in concentrations of pollutants both globally and in the Arctic. Exceptions are black carbon in the MFR scenario, and sulfur species and organic carbon in both scenarios due to the future phase- in of current regulation that reduces fuel sulfur content. In the season with potential transit traffic through the Arctic in 2030 we find increased concentrations of all pollutants in large parts of the Arctic. Net global RFs from 2004–2030 of 53 mW m−2 (HIGH) and 73 mW m−2 (MFR) are similar to those found for preindustrial to present net global aircraft RF. The found warming contrasts with the cooling from his- torical ship emissions. The reason for this difference and the higher global forcing for the MFR scenario is mainly the reduced future fuel sulfur content resulting in less cooling from sulfate aerosols. The Arctic RF is largest in the HIGH scenario. In the HIGH scenario ozone dominates the RF during the transit season (August-October). RF due to BC in air, and snow and ice becomes significant during Arctic spring. For the HIGH scenario the net Arctic RF during Spring is 5 times higher than in winter.
Black carbon (BC) is strongly light-absorbing carbonaceous material emitted as solid particulate ... more Black carbon (BC) is strongly light-absorbing carbonaceous material emitted as solid particulate matter created through incomplete combustion of carbon-based fuels. BC contains more than 80 percent carbon by mass, a high fraction of which is sp2-bonded carbon, and when emitted forms aggregates of primary spherules between 20 and 50 nm in aerodynamic diameter.
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Papers by Ray Minjares