ABSTRACT In poverty reduction programs, a significant number of beneficiaries change program stat... more ABSTRACT In poverty reduction programs, a significant number of beneficiaries change program status. An analysis of Oportunidades’ data from urban Mexico shows that beneficiaries that drop out for behavioral and administrative reasons are those who are marginally eligible, improving targeting through minimizing errors of inclusion. Results also indicate that the very poorest recipients, particularly in large urban areas and less marginal communities, are more likely to drop out, increasing the errors of omission. Households deemed ineligible through a recertification process were those that had obtained basic durables or changed their demographic composition implying that Oportunidades’ retargeting is based on limited information.
In the 1980s and 1990s the issue of non-stationarity in economic time series has been in the cont... more In the 1980s and 1990s the issue of non-stationarity in economic time series has been in the context of unit roots vs. mean trends in AR(p) models. More recently this perspective has been extended to include structural breaks. In this paper we take a much broader perspective by viewing the problem as one of misspecification testing: assessing the stationarity of the underlying process. The proposed misspecification testing procedure relies on resampling techniques to enhance the informational content of the observed data in an attempt to capture heterogeneity `locally' using rolling window estimators of the primary moments of the stochastic process. The effectiveness of the testing procedure is assessed using extensive Monte Carlo simulations
ABSTRACT This paper proposes the Student's t Dynamic Linear Regression (St-DLR) model as ... more ABSTRACT This paper proposes the Student's t Dynamic Linear Regression (St-DLR) model as an alternative to the various extensions/modifications of the ARCH type volatility model. The St-DLR differs from the latter models of volatility because it can incorporate exogenous variables in the conditional variance in a natural way. Moreover, it also addresses the following issues: (i) apparent long memory of the conditional variance, (ii) distributional assumption of the error, (iii) existence of higher moments, and (iv) coefficient positivity restrictions. The model is illustrated using Dow Jones data and the three-month T-bill rate. The empirical results seem promising, as the contemporaneous variable appears to account for a large portion of the volatility.
This paper reports on experiments where individuals are asked to make risky decisions for themsel... more This paper reports on experiments where individuals are asked to make risky decisions for themselves, and to predict the risky decisions of others. Prior research shows that people predict women to be more risk averse than men, a result we confirm. We investigate whether differences in physical prowess underlie actual and perceived gender differences, a hypothesis suggested by both evolutionary and economic theories. Overall we find that perceptions of others’ risk attitudes reflect stereotypes about gender and strength but tend to exaggerate the underlying relationships. Physically stronger and taller people and those perceived as attractive are predicted to be more risk tolerant, while women are perceived to be more risk averse. The impact of gender and physical prowess measures on actual gamble choices is much weaker. Sources of prediction bias are examined, showing that specific characteristics of the target and predictor lead to systematic over-prediction or under-prediction of risk aversion.
ABSTRACT In poverty reduction programs, a significant number of beneficiaries change program stat... more ABSTRACT In poverty reduction programs, a significant number of beneficiaries change program status. An analysis of Oportunidades’ data from urban Mexico shows that beneficiaries that drop out for behavioral and administrative reasons are those who are marginally eligible, improving targeting through minimizing errors of inclusion. Results also indicate that the very poorest recipients, particularly in large urban areas and less marginal communities, are more likely to drop out, increasing the errors of omission. Households deemed ineligible through a recertification process were those that had obtained basic durables or changed their demographic composition implying that Oportunidades’ retargeting is based on limited information.
In the 1980s and 1990s the issue of non-stationarity in economic time series has been in the cont... more In the 1980s and 1990s the issue of non-stationarity in economic time series has been in the context of unit roots vs. mean trends in AR(p) models. More recently this perspective has been extended to include structural breaks. In this paper we take a much broader perspective by viewing the problem as one of misspecification testing: assessing the stationarity of the underlying process. The proposed misspecification testing procedure relies on resampling techniques to enhance the informational content of the observed data in an attempt to capture heterogeneity `locally' using rolling window estimators of the primary moments of the stochastic process. The effectiveness of the testing procedure is assessed using extensive Monte Carlo simulations
ABSTRACT This paper proposes the Student's t Dynamic Linear Regression (St-DLR) model as ... more ABSTRACT This paper proposes the Student's t Dynamic Linear Regression (St-DLR) model as an alternative to the various extensions/modifications of the ARCH type volatility model. The St-DLR differs from the latter models of volatility because it can incorporate exogenous variables in the conditional variance in a natural way. Moreover, it also addresses the following issues: (i) apparent long memory of the conditional variance, (ii) distributional assumption of the error, (iii) existence of higher moments, and (iv) coefficient positivity restrictions. The model is illustrated using Dow Jones data and the three-month T-bill rate. The empirical results seem promising, as the contemporaneous variable appears to account for a large portion of the volatility.
This paper reports on experiments where individuals are asked to make risky decisions for themsel... more This paper reports on experiments where individuals are asked to make risky decisions for themselves, and to predict the risky decisions of others. Prior research shows that people predict women to be more risk averse than men, a result we confirm. We investigate whether differences in physical prowess underlie actual and perceived gender differences, a hypothesis suggested by both evolutionary and economic theories. Overall we find that perceptions of others’ risk attitudes reflect stereotypes about gender and strength but tend to exaggerate the underlying relationships. Physically stronger and taller people and those perceived as attractive are predicted to be more risk tolerant, while women are perceived to be more risk averse. The impact of gender and physical prowess measures on actual gamble choices is much weaker. Sources of prediction bias are examined, showing that specific characteristics of the target and predictor lead to systematic over-prediction or under-prediction of risk aversion.
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Papers by maria Heracleous