ABSTRACT The risk perceived by investors is crucial in the decision to invest, in particular when... more ABSTRACT The risk perceived by investors is crucial in the decision to invest, in particular when it concerns a foreign country. The risk associated to any (foreign) investment is a multi-faceted element given that it reflects many aspects that are relevant to (foreign) investors, ...
ABSTRACT The risk perceived by investors is crucial in the decision to invest, in particular when... more ABSTRACT The risk perceived by investors is crucial in the decision to invest, in particular when it concerns a foreign country. The risk associated to any (foreign) investment is a multi-faceted element given that it reflects many aspects that are relevant to (foreign) investors, ...
Sanctions are a recurrent issue on the international scene that has gained relevance in recent de... more Sanctions are a recurrent issue on the international scene that has gained relevance in recent decades. This article intends to approach this matter in an innovative way by analyzing the relative importance of sanctions’ types and objectives, besides target countries’ characteristics, on sanctions outcomes. Unlike most previous studies, we use more comprehensive data and a competing risk discrete-time hazard model to analyze the differences between sanctions termination by target compliance and sender capitulation. Our results show that the determinants for the two outcomes differ and that there are differences in the efficacy of sanctions according to their type and objective. We conclude that while higher levels of political volatility, democracy, and equality in target countries increase the probability of compliance, higher levels of democracy and globalization increase the probability of sender capitulation. Smart sanctions seem to be more effective at targeting compliance, as ...
O avolumar de impactos negativos da crise económico-financeira nos países mais frágeis da Zona Eu... more O avolumar de impactos negativos da crise económico-financeira nos países mais frágeis da Zona Euro tem despoletado aceso debate sobre a viabilidade da arquitetura da União Monetária Europeia (UME), cuja imperfeição pode pôr em causa os objetivos últimos do processo de integração europeia. Com efeito, esta crise tem mostrado de forma eloquente que a UME teve lacunas graves no seu desenho e no quadro operacional que a suporta, o que não evitou efeitos penalizadores para alguns Estados-membros e alimentou a exigência de alterações estruturais no paradigma de governação da moeda única. Assim, foram surgindo diferentes iniciativas das instituições comunitárias, ancoradas em posições de autores bastante críticos sobre o processo de integração monetária europeia, e que paulatinamente têm vindo a transformar o modelo de governação da Zona Euro. Neste contexto, este artigo prossegue dois objetivos: por um lado, identificar e discutir a racionalidade e os fundamentos das principais mudanças ...
The economic and financial crisis that gripped Europe after 2008 had negative effects in some Eur... more The economic and financial crisis that gripped Europe after 2008 had negative effects in some Euro Zone countries, displaying structural flaws in the EMU’s design. These effects have threatened their social systems, undermining the political viability of European integration. In this context, at the end of 2012 the social dimension entered in the political debate trough the Five Presidents report, which brought new elements to ensure the Euro´s stability. Since then, other initiatives have taken place, recognizing that the Euro´s governance is still incomplete. The article discusses the need to include the social dimension in the EMU, evaluates the initiatives that have been taken in this area and approach the conditions to enable a central macroeconomic stabilization mechanisms to absorb specific shocks and improve resilience in the EU
A sincronização dos ciclos económicos está associada às chamadas áreas monetá- rias ótimas. Sendo... more A sincronização dos ciclos económicos está associada às chamadas áreas monetá- rias ótimas. Sendo um pré-requisito para a participação numa tal área, foi ques- tionada pela visão de que a sincronização dos ciclos económicos resultaria do próprio funcionamento da área monetária. Uma observação empírica dos ciclos económicos na Zona Euro parece, no entanto, mostrar que essa sincronização não aumentou, especialmente em relação aos chamados países periféricos, o que evidentemente levanta questões sobre aquela sincronização a posteriori. O capítulo procura, portanto, verificar se a sincronização dos ciclos económicos dos países da Zona Euro realmente aumentou ou, se diminuiu, e em que países tal ocorreu
The integration of financial markets is crucial in a monetary unification process, taking into ac... more The integration of financial markets is crucial in a monetary unification process, taking into account the ability to foster risk sharing and optimal allocation of savings and investments within the integrated space. After the creation of the single European currency in 1999, the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone questioned the model of monetary integration and its architecture because of its disparate impacts on member states, which called into question the viability of the Euro. In this chapter we evaluate the evolution of financial integration in the Eurozone and discuss the causes and effects of the crisis in the process of financial fragmentation. We conclude with identification of the aspects that we consider crucial to reform the paradigm of governance of the single currency
Resumo: A crise das dívidas soberanas na zona Euro colocou em causa o modelo de integração monetá... more Resumo: A crise das dívidas soberanas na zona Euro colocou em causa o modelo de integração monetária e a sua arquitetura. As manifestações de fragilidade de alguns países periféricos, devido ao endividamento público e privado e à perda de competitividade, estiveram na base de planos de resgate financeiro daqueles países. Criou-se uma espiral de contágio em que o risco bancário fez aumentar o risco da dívida pública e, sucessivamente, a subida deste afetou a capacidade dos bancos proverem crédito à economia real. Diversas iniciativas comunitárias tentaram debelar este círculo vicioso, sendo a mais promissora a criação da união bancária com tarefas de supervisão, resolução e garantia dos sistemas. Este artigo indaga sobre a génese deste processo e discute as condições para que a união bancária ajude a resolver esta crise e mantenha a integridade do Euro.Abstract:The Eurozone sovereign debt crisis has challenged the monetary integration model and its architecture. Signs of weakness on ...
ABSTRACT: This article aims to inquire about the conditioning reasons on the Maastricht Treaty on... more ABSTRACT: This article aims to inquire about the conditioning reasons on the Maastricht Treaty on the EMU. Taking as a reference the warnings raised by economic theory at the time (in particular, the optimal currency areas referential, e.g. Mundell, McKinnon), we try to understand whether the policy choice made has been the most correct one. We raise the hypothesis on the existence of a political deficit on the European project development, caused by the Maastricht Treaty. The European Union enlargement and the Euro zone creation have been trying to correct it, mainly through the frustrated attempt to create an European Constitution and through the limited scope of the Lisbon Treaty. On this basis we then try to establish the future challenges of the European construction and the sovereign debt crisis, attempting to answer the following questions: Are the Euro crisis challenges rooted on the constraints of the Maastricht Treaty? Is the Euro crisis the result of inadequate governance...
A adoção de uma moeda comum por um conjunto de países da União Europeia envolvia, a priori, múlti... more A adoção de uma moeda comum por um conjunto de países da União Europeia envolvia, a priori, múltiplos custos e benefícios no plano social e económico. A crise das Dívidas Soberanas que atingiu a Europa a partir de 2009 revelou falhas e debilidades estruturais do figurino institucional do Euro, as quais terão contribuído para um conjunto de reações sistémicas negativas. A insuficiente coordenação das políticas orçamentais e fiscais, a que acresce a ausência de mecanismos centrais de supervisão e resolução bancária, permitiu a difusão dos efeitos da crise do setor financeiro ao resto da economia e entre os vários países da Zona Euro. Neste contexto, têm sido avançados diferentes cenários sobre o futuro desta Zona, a qual se encontra agora numa encruzilhada e perante desafios que exigem respostas adequadas no plano socioeconómico e político-institucional. O artigo apresenta e discute a viabilidade de alguns dos cenários com que a Zona Euro se confronta, tendo por base as tendências ver...
A integração dos mercados financeiros é crucial num processo de unificação monetária, tendo em co... more A integração dos mercados financeiros é crucial num processo de unificação monetária, tendo em conta a capacidade de promover a partilha de riscos e a afetação ótima de poupanças e investimentos dentro do espaço integrado. Após a criação da moeda única em 1999, a crise da dívida soberana na Zona Euro levantou várias questões sobre o modelo de integração monetária e a sua arquitetura dados os seus impactos díspares sobre os estados membros, o que pôs em causa a viabilidade do Euro. Neste capítulo, avaliamos a evolução da integração financeira na Zona Euro e discutimos as causas e os efeitos da crise no processo de fragmentação financeira. Concluímos com a identificação dos aspetos que consideramos cruciais para reformar o paradigma de governação da moeda única.Este estudo foi financiado pelo Departamento da Economia, da Universidade de Évora, e, por fundos nacionais, através da FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, I.P., no âmbito dos projetos «UID/CPO/0758/2019» do CICP e «U...
Após algumas hesitações e tímidas respostas à crise, alguns governos da União Europeia (UE) reagi... more Após algumas hesitações e tímidas respostas à crise, alguns governos da União Europeia (UE) reagiram com vigor à pandemia da Covid-19 com estratégias múltiplas, conciliando o distanciamento social, a aplicação de testes de diagnóstico, a implementação de medidas de quarentena, bem como o encerramento das fronteiras. Porém, devido à forte interdependência entre as economias europeias numa crise com a amplitude desta, a coordenação das iniciativas era crucial para o bom funcionamento do mercado único e para a credibilidade da moeda única, enquanto bens comuns na UE
Os BRICS assumem dimensão económica e política crescente,com reflexos na nova ordem económica e p... more Os BRICS assumem dimensão económica e política crescente,com reflexos na nova ordem económica e política mundial que renova os fatores geopolíticos e geoeconómicos. Neste contexto, as relações da UE com os BRICS deverão valorizar mais do que a vertente meramente económica e envolver aspetos como a segurança, as migrações, a governança mundial ou as alterações climáticas. As Parcerias Estratégicas da UE com os BRICS são instrumento crucial da política externa da EU na projeção dos seus princípios e valores no sistema global. O artigo revisita aquelas Parcerias Estratégicas e reflete sobre as funções que estas desempenham, num contexto de crise social e económica, política e de legitimidade que a UE atravessa. Poderá o reforço de tais parcerias conceder à UE oportunidade para projetar a sua influência na ordem mundial
The recent enlargement of the European Union (EU) to Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC... more The recent enlargement of the European Union (EU) to Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC), and to the islands of Malta and Cyprus, is an unparalleled process in the life of the Union given the diversity and economic dimension of the countries involved. The membership of nations evolving from centrally planned to market economies is challenging and requires structural adjustments that are not possible without a high capacity of adaptation on the part of national agents and institutions. In this context, the project Ezoneplus – the Eastward Enlargement of the Eurozone, financed by the European Commission’s 5th framework program, emerged as a large scale research scheme, integrating a set of partners that include, apart from the Department of Economics of Évora University, a number of institutions from old and new EU members. The main objective of this research project was to evaluate the main consequences and implications from EU’s Eastern enlargement, in terms of goods, services and factors’ markets adjustments, and of the functioning of economic policies in the new institutional framework. Specific research tasks were assigned to the different consortium teams, and the Évora team assumed the responsibility of coordinating the research on the expected impacts upon international trade and foreign direct investments (FDI) flows. Within the three year framework of the project many dissemination activities were developed. Six international conferences were organised, various books edited and a number of papers were published in renowned journals. Twenty five working papers were produced and are available in the project’s internet site (http://www.ezoneplus.org/). As expected, the Évora team was deeply committed to this project, producing all the reports requested by the European Commission, and presenting its research results in working papers, in journal articles and in seminars and conferences. The present publication is another dissemination effort and its main purpose is the presentation, in a joint and integral version, of the documents produced on the expected impacts of the EU enlargement, in terms of trade and FDI. For methodological reasons the material is presented in the original form, trying to preserve the texts global coherence amidst the different requirements of the different phases of research. As a result, some statistic data and bibliographic references may have become somewhat out of date. The structure of the publication reflects the time developments of the research, highlighting the concluding elements of the distinct parts of the work developed. In an introductory note the main characteristics of the project are presented. Chapter 1 displays the early research tasks, comprehending our topic’s State of the Art from a theoretical and empirical point of view. It was completed in January 2002. Following this, the empirical assessments were developed, originating a report published by mid 2002, and reproduced in Chapter 2. The last chapter summarises the dynamics of trade and FDI flows during CEEC’ transition and accession to EU. The main opportunities and risks in the context of full membership are identified and an analysis of the future sustainability of new members’ development models is performed. This document, completed in April 2004, identifies some relevant aspects that are susceptible of being targeted for public authorities’ intervention and contains a number of economic policy recommendation
The process of international economic integration has been continuously reinforced over the past ... more The process of international economic integration has been continuously reinforced over the past decade. Such phenomenon is especially visible at the regional level, with the increase of Regional Integration Agreements (RIA), such as Mercosur, ASEAN, NAFTA and the project of European Union (EU) Eastern enlargement. Trade and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows are generally recognised as the two main channels of economic integration. Consequently, the most relevant issues in the debate on RIA relate to trade creation, trade diversion and to the possible reallocation of FDI and the respective economic effects. Since the beginning of the negotiation process for the Eastern enlargement of the EU, trade and FDI have played an important role in the approximation of member states and applicants. CEEC' transition phase to a market economy may now be considered as completed, since the geographical reorientation of trade seems to have reached its limits. Industrial recovery and rapidly...
In this paper we analyse the characteristics and evolution of the EU-CEEC trade in the last decad... more In this paper we analyse the characteristics and evolution of the EU-CEEC trade in the last decade, giving particular attention to trade relations among the CEEC. We study the determinants of both total and sectoral trade flows and investigate the potential bilateral trade among all the countries. The analysis is based on the gravity model approach using panel data from 1993 to 2001. The results highlight the sectoral differences in the EU-CEEC trade developments. Furthermore, it is possible to conclude that there is still scope for growth on bilateral trade flows between some CEEC and some of the EU countries and especially among the new EU members.
ABSTRACT The risk perceived by investors is crucial in the decision to invest, in particular when... more ABSTRACT The risk perceived by investors is crucial in the decision to invest, in particular when it concerns a foreign country. The risk associated to any (foreign) investment is a multi-faceted element given that it reflects many aspects that are relevant to (foreign) investors, ...
ABSTRACT The risk perceived by investors is crucial in the decision to invest, in particular when... more ABSTRACT The risk perceived by investors is crucial in the decision to invest, in particular when it concerns a foreign country. The risk associated to any (foreign) investment is a multi-faceted element given that it reflects many aspects that are relevant to (foreign) investors, ...
Sanctions are a recurrent issue on the international scene that has gained relevance in recent de... more Sanctions are a recurrent issue on the international scene that has gained relevance in recent decades. This article intends to approach this matter in an innovative way by analyzing the relative importance of sanctions’ types and objectives, besides target countries’ characteristics, on sanctions outcomes. Unlike most previous studies, we use more comprehensive data and a competing risk discrete-time hazard model to analyze the differences between sanctions termination by target compliance and sender capitulation. Our results show that the determinants for the two outcomes differ and that there are differences in the efficacy of sanctions according to their type and objective. We conclude that while higher levels of political volatility, democracy, and equality in target countries increase the probability of compliance, higher levels of democracy and globalization increase the probability of sender capitulation. Smart sanctions seem to be more effective at targeting compliance, as ...
O avolumar de impactos negativos da crise económico-financeira nos países mais frágeis da Zona Eu... more O avolumar de impactos negativos da crise económico-financeira nos países mais frágeis da Zona Euro tem despoletado aceso debate sobre a viabilidade da arquitetura da União Monetária Europeia (UME), cuja imperfeição pode pôr em causa os objetivos últimos do processo de integração europeia. Com efeito, esta crise tem mostrado de forma eloquente que a UME teve lacunas graves no seu desenho e no quadro operacional que a suporta, o que não evitou efeitos penalizadores para alguns Estados-membros e alimentou a exigência de alterações estruturais no paradigma de governação da moeda única. Assim, foram surgindo diferentes iniciativas das instituições comunitárias, ancoradas em posições de autores bastante críticos sobre o processo de integração monetária europeia, e que paulatinamente têm vindo a transformar o modelo de governação da Zona Euro. Neste contexto, este artigo prossegue dois objetivos: por um lado, identificar e discutir a racionalidade e os fundamentos das principais mudanças ...
The economic and financial crisis that gripped Europe after 2008 had negative effects in some Eur... more The economic and financial crisis that gripped Europe after 2008 had negative effects in some Euro Zone countries, displaying structural flaws in the EMU’s design. These effects have threatened their social systems, undermining the political viability of European integration. In this context, at the end of 2012 the social dimension entered in the political debate trough the Five Presidents report, which brought new elements to ensure the Euro´s stability. Since then, other initiatives have taken place, recognizing that the Euro´s governance is still incomplete. The article discusses the need to include the social dimension in the EMU, evaluates the initiatives that have been taken in this area and approach the conditions to enable a central macroeconomic stabilization mechanisms to absorb specific shocks and improve resilience in the EU
A sincronização dos ciclos económicos está associada às chamadas áreas monetá- rias ótimas. Sendo... more A sincronização dos ciclos económicos está associada às chamadas áreas monetá- rias ótimas. Sendo um pré-requisito para a participação numa tal área, foi ques- tionada pela visão de que a sincronização dos ciclos económicos resultaria do próprio funcionamento da área monetária. Uma observação empírica dos ciclos económicos na Zona Euro parece, no entanto, mostrar que essa sincronização não aumentou, especialmente em relação aos chamados países periféricos, o que evidentemente levanta questões sobre aquela sincronização a posteriori. O capítulo procura, portanto, verificar se a sincronização dos ciclos económicos dos países da Zona Euro realmente aumentou ou, se diminuiu, e em que países tal ocorreu
The integration of financial markets is crucial in a monetary unification process, taking into ac... more The integration of financial markets is crucial in a monetary unification process, taking into account the ability to foster risk sharing and optimal allocation of savings and investments within the integrated space. After the creation of the single European currency in 1999, the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone questioned the model of monetary integration and its architecture because of its disparate impacts on member states, which called into question the viability of the Euro. In this chapter we evaluate the evolution of financial integration in the Eurozone and discuss the causes and effects of the crisis in the process of financial fragmentation. We conclude with identification of the aspects that we consider crucial to reform the paradigm of governance of the single currency
Resumo: A crise das dívidas soberanas na zona Euro colocou em causa o modelo de integração monetá... more Resumo: A crise das dívidas soberanas na zona Euro colocou em causa o modelo de integração monetária e a sua arquitetura. As manifestações de fragilidade de alguns países periféricos, devido ao endividamento público e privado e à perda de competitividade, estiveram na base de planos de resgate financeiro daqueles países. Criou-se uma espiral de contágio em que o risco bancário fez aumentar o risco da dívida pública e, sucessivamente, a subida deste afetou a capacidade dos bancos proverem crédito à economia real. Diversas iniciativas comunitárias tentaram debelar este círculo vicioso, sendo a mais promissora a criação da união bancária com tarefas de supervisão, resolução e garantia dos sistemas. Este artigo indaga sobre a génese deste processo e discute as condições para que a união bancária ajude a resolver esta crise e mantenha a integridade do Euro.Abstract:The Eurozone sovereign debt crisis has challenged the monetary integration model and its architecture. Signs of weakness on ...
ABSTRACT: This article aims to inquire about the conditioning reasons on the Maastricht Treaty on... more ABSTRACT: This article aims to inquire about the conditioning reasons on the Maastricht Treaty on the EMU. Taking as a reference the warnings raised by economic theory at the time (in particular, the optimal currency areas referential, e.g. Mundell, McKinnon), we try to understand whether the policy choice made has been the most correct one. We raise the hypothesis on the existence of a political deficit on the European project development, caused by the Maastricht Treaty. The European Union enlargement and the Euro zone creation have been trying to correct it, mainly through the frustrated attempt to create an European Constitution and through the limited scope of the Lisbon Treaty. On this basis we then try to establish the future challenges of the European construction and the sovereign debt crisis, attempting to answer the following questions: Are the Euro crisis challenges rooted on the constraints of the Maastricht Treaty? Is the Euro crisis the result of inadequate governance...
A adoção de uma moeda comum por um conjunto de países da União Europeia envolvia, a priori, múlti... more A adoção de uma moeda comum por um conjunto de países da União Europeia envolvia, a priori, múltiplos custos e benefícios no plano social e económico. A crise das Dívidas Soberanas que atingiu a Europa a partir de 2009 revelou falhas e debilidades estruturais do figurino institucional do Euro, as quais terão contribuído para um conjunto de reações sistémicas negativas. A insuficiente coordenação das políticas orçamentais e fiscais, a que acresce a ausência de mecanismos centrais de supervisão e resolução bancária, permitiu a difusão dos efeitos da crise do setor financeiro ao resto da economia e entre os vários países da Zona Euro. Neste contexto, têm sido avançados diferentes cenários sobre o futuro desta Zona, a qual se encontra agora numa encruzilhada e perante desafios que exigem respostas adequadas no plano socioeconómico e político-institucional. O artigo apresenta e discute a viabilidade de alguns dos cenários com que a Zona Euro se confronta, tendo por base as tendências ver...
A integração dos mercados financeiros é crucial num processo de unificação monetária, tendo em co... more A integração dos mercados financeiros é crucial num processo de unificação monetária, tendo em conta a capacidade de promover a partilha de riscos e a afetação ótima de poupanças e investimentos dentro do espaço integrado. Após a criação da moeda única em 1999, a crise da dívida soberana na Zona Euro levantou várias questões sobre o modelo de integração monetária e a sua arquitetura dados os seus impactos díspares sobre os estados membros, o que pôs em causa a viabilidade do Euro. Neste capítulo, avaliamos a evolução da integração financeira na Zona Euro e discutimos as causas e os efeitos da crise no processo de fragmentação financeira. Concluímos com a identificação dos aspetos que consideramos cruciais para reformar o paradigma de governação da moeda única.Este estudo foi financiado pelo Departamento da Economia, da Universidade de Évora, e, por fundos nacionais, através da FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, I.P., no âmbito dos projetos «UID/CPO/0758/2019» do CICP e «U...
Após algumas hesitações e tímidas respostas à crise, alguns governos da União Europeia (UE) reagi... more Após algumas hesitações e tímidas respostas à crise, alguns governos da União Europeia (UE) reagiram com vigor à pandemia da Covid-19 com estratégias múltiplas, conciliando o distanciamento social, a aplicação de testes de diagnóstico, a implementação de medidas de quarentena, bem como o encerramento das fronteiras. Porém, devido à forte interdependência entre as economias europeias numa crise com a amplitude desta, a coordenação das iniciativas era crucial para o bom funcionamento do mercado único e para a credibilidade da moeda única, enquanto bens comuns na UE
Os BRICS assumem dimensão económica e política crescente,com reflexos na nova ordem económica e p... more Os BRICS assumem dimensão económica e política crescente,com reflexos na nova ordem económica e política mundial que renova os fatores geopolíticos e geoeconómicos. Neste contexto, as relações da UE com os BRICS deverão valorizar mais do que a vertente meramente económica e envolver aspetos como a segurança, as migrações, a governança mundial ou as alterações climáticas. As Parcerias Estratégicas da UE com os BRICS são instrumento crucial da política externa da EU na projeção dos seus princípios e valores no sistema global. O artigo revisita aquelas Parcerias Estratégicas e reflete sobre as funções que estas desempenham, num contexto de crise social e económica, política e de legitimidade que a UE atravessa. Poderá o reforço de tais parcerias conceder à UE oportunidade para projetar a sua influência na ordem mundial
The recent enlargement of the European Union (EU) to Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC... more The recent enlargement of the European Union (EU) to Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC), and to the islands of Malta and Cyprus, is an unparalleled process in the life of the Union given the diversity and economic dimension of the countries involved. The membership of nations evolving from centrally planned to market economies is challenging and requires structural adjustments that are not possible without a high capacity of adaptation on the part of national agents and institutions. In this context, the project Ezoneplus – the Eastward Enlargement of the Eurozone, financed by the European Commission’s 5th framework program, emerged as a large scale research scheme, integrating a set of partners that include, apart from the Department of Economics of Évora University, a number of institutions from old and new EU members. The main objective of this research project was to evaluate the main consequences and implications from EU’s Eastern enlargement, in terms of goods, services and factors’ markets adjustments, and of the functioning of economic policies in the new institutional framework. Specific research tasks were assigned to the different consortium teams, and the Évora team assumed the responsibility of coordinating the research on the expected impacts upon international trade and foreign direct investments (FDI) flows. Within the three year framework of the project many dissemination activities were developed. Six international conferences were organised, various books edited and a number of papers were published in renowned journals. Twenty five working papers were produced and are available in the project’s internet site (http://www.ezoneplus.org/). As expected, the Évora team was deeply committed to this project, producing all the reports requested by the European Commission, and presenting its research results in working papers, in journal articles and in seminars and conferences. The present publication is another dissemination effort and its main purpose is the presentation, in a joint and integral version, of the documents produced on the expected impacts of the EU enlargement, in terms of trade and FDI. For methodological reasons the material is presented in the original form, trying to preserve the texts global coherence amidst the different requirements of the different phases of research. As a result, some statistic data and bibliographic references may have become somewhat out of date. The structure of the publication reflects the time developments of the research, highlighting the concluding elements of the distinct parts of the work developed. In an introductory note the main characteristics of the project are presented. Chapter 1 displays the early research tasks, comprehending our topic’s State of the Art from a theoretical and empirical point of view. It was completed in January 2002. Following this, the empirical assessments were developed, originating a report published by mid 2002, and reproduced in Chapter 2. The last chapter summarises the dynamics of trade and FDI flows during CEEC’ transition and accession to EU. The main opportunities and risks in the context of full membership are identified and an analysis of the future sustainability of new members’ development models is performed. This document, completed in April 2004, identifies some relevant aspects that are susceptible of being targeted for public authorities’ intervention and contains a number of economic policy recommendation
The process of international economic integration has been continuously reinforced over the past ... more The process of international economic integration has been continuously reinforced over the past decade. Such phenomenon is especially visible at the regional level, with the increase of Regional Integration Agreements (RIA), such as Mercosur, ASEAN, NAFTA and the project of European Union (EU) Eastern enlargement. Trade and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows are generally recognised as the two main channels of economic integration. Consequently, the most relevant issues in the debate on RIA relate to trade creation, trade diversion and to the possible reallocation of FDI and the respective economic effects. Since the beginning of the negotiation process for the Eastern enlargement of the EU, trade and FDI have played an important role in the approximation of member states and applicants. CEEC' transition phase to a market economy may now be considered as completed, since the geographical reorientation of trade seems to have reached its limits. Industrial recovery and rapidly...
In this paper we analyse the characteristics and evolution of the EU-CEEC trade in the last decad... more In this paper we analyse the characteristics and evolution of the EU-CEEC trade in the last decade, giving particular attention to trade relations among the CEEC. We study the determinants of both total and sectoral trade flows and investigate the potential bilateral trade among all the countries. The analysis is based on the gravity model approach using panel data from 1993 to 2001. The results highlight the sectoral differences in the EU-CEEC trade developments. Furthermore, it is possible to conclude that there is still scope for growth on bilateral trade flows between some CEEC and some of the EU countries and especially among the new EU members.
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