Oil, Gas & Energy Law OGEL 5 (2023), www.ogel.org URL: www.ogel.org/article.asp?key=4111, 2023
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has had significant implications for the regional and global ener... more The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has had significant implications for the regional and global energy sector, particularly concerning the possible export options of oil and gas from the Caspian region. This area is becoming a major producer of these resources, and the export routes are critical to the energy security of many countries, especially those in Europe. The war in Ukraine has disrupted existing export routes and caused a re-evaluation of future options for exporting Caspian oil and gas. This paper examines the impact of the war in Ukraine’s energy sector and beyond and on the geopolitical implications of main Caspian oil and gas export options.
T. Babali "The Impact of the War in Ukraine on the Energy Geopolitics
and Transition of the Caspian Connection: Future of Alternative
Routes" OGEL 5 (2023), www.ogel.org URL: www.ogel.org/article.asp?key=4111
Turkey, Present and Past: Turkey at the Energy Crossroads Published in the Spring 2009 Middle Eas... more Turkey, Present and Past: Turkey at the Energy Crossroads Published in the Spring 2009 Middle East Quarterly, pp. 25-33. Turkey is increasingly at the crossroads of the world energy trade. Because of tanker traffic through the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits, Turkey has become an important north-south oil transit route. The Baku-Tbilisi- Ceyhan (BTC) oil and Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum (BTE) natural gas pipelines make Turkey an important east-west route as well. Economic opportunities, however, can present diplomatic liabilities. As the importance of Turkey's energy sector has grown, Turkey has come under increasing pressure. Turkey finds itself caught between competing U.S. and Russian interests as a result of the August 2008 Georgia conflict. Turkish-Iranian energy trade has also brought Washington's ire down on Turkey. Turkey's efforts to minimize problems with its neighbors may make it popular with some, but it has led others to question the strength of the U.S. -Turkish s...
... On September 6, 2008, at the invitation of Armenian president Serzh Sargsyan, Turkey's p... more ... On September 6, 2008, at the invitation of Armenian president Serzh Sargsyan, Turkey's president Abdullah Gül visited Armeniaa country with which Turkey does not have diplomatic ... [4] "Trade with Turkey: 2007," Foreign Trade Statistics, US Census Bureau, accessed Jan. ...
Oil, Gas & Energy Law OGEL 5 (2023), www.ogel.org URL: www.ogel.org/article.asp?key=4111, 2023
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has had significant implications for the regional and global ener... more The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has had significant implications for the regional and global energy sector, particularly concerning the possible export options of oil and gas from the Caspian region. This area is becoming a major producer of these resources, and the export routes are critical to the energy security of many countries, especially those in Europe. The war in Ukraine has disrupted existing export routes and caused a re-evaluation of future options for exporting Caspian oil and gas. This paper examines the impact of the war in Ukraine’s energy sector and beyond and on the geopolitical implications of main Caspian oil and gas export options.
T. Babali "The Impact of the War in Ukraine on the Energy Geopolitics
and Transition of the Caspian Connection: Future of Alternative
Routes" OGEL 5 (2023), www.ogel.org URL: www.ogel.org/article.asp?key=4111
Turkey, Present and Past: Turkey at the Energy Crossroads Published in the Spring 2009 Middle Eas... more Turkey, Present and Past: Turkey at the Energy Crossroads Published in the Spring 2009 Middle East Quarterly, pp. 25-33. Turkey is increasingly at the crossroads of the world energy trade. Because of tanker traffic through the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits, Turkey has become an important north-south oil transit route. The Baku-Tbilisi- Ceyhan (BTC) oil and Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum (BTE) natural gas pipelines make Turkey an important east-west route as well. Economic opportunities, however, can present diplomatic liabilities. As the importance of Turkey's energy sector has grown, Turkey has come under increasing pressure. Turkey finds itself caught between competing U.S. and Russian interests as a result of the August 2008 Georgia conflict. Turkish-Iranian energy trade has also brought Washington's ire down on Turkey. Turkey's efforts to minimize problems with its neighbors may make it popular with some, but it has led others to question the strength of the U.S. -Turkish s...
... On September 6, 2008, at the invitation of Armenian president Serzh Sargsyan, Turkey's p... more ... On September 6, 2008, at the invitation of Armenian president Serzh Sargsyan, Turkey's president Abdullah Gül visited Armeniaa country with which Turkey does not have diplomatic ... [4] "Trade with Turkey: 2007," Foreign Trade Statistics, US Census Bureau, accessed Jan. ...
The Caspian region is considered to be one of the next oil and gas frontiers. Along with the re-d... more The Caspian region is considered to be one of the next oil and gas frontiers. Along with the re-distribution of political power and the emergence of new balances after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the continuous waves of change also have had significant effects on the prospects for development of energy
resources in the region.
The objective of this study is to develop a model in order to understand and predict the outcome of the policies of the major actors (governments and companies) in the development and marketing of Caspian Sea energy resources. More specifically, the purpose is to identify the principal factors and their interactions in selecting export routes for the energy resources of the Caspian Basin. My hypothesis in this study is that political factors are dominant in the region. In the final analysis, the political process is more important than economics in determining which pipeline is to be built. The principal inputs to the development of the model will be detailed analyses of;
(1) the development of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline project, and
(2) the determination of the export route for Kazakhstan’s giant Kashagan offshore oil field.
Such a predictive model can then be applied to other countries in the region, or other similar resource-rich regions of the world.
After studying the developments leading to BTC’s success, the promising oil and gas developments in Kazakhstan shall be examined. How will the Kashagan oil field be developed? What alternatives are available to the Kazakh government other than the Russian oil pipeline network? With regard to this question, I put forward the most likely outcome.
My methodology will modify Bruce Bueno de Mesquita’s (BDM) model of predicting political events in an attempt to find an answer to the abovementioned central question. Applicability of the BDM model will be tested in the context of energy development, which is different from the original and traditional fields of application for this model.
The Caspian region is considered to be one of the next oil and gas frontiers. Along with the re-d... more The Caspian region is considered to be one of the next oil and gas frontiers. Along with the re-distribution of political power and the emergence of new balances after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the continuous waves of change also have had significant effects on the prospects for development of energy resources in the region.
The objective of this study is to develop a model in order to understand and predict the outcome of the policies of the major actors (governments and companies) in the development and marketing of Caspian Sea energy resources. More specifically, the purpose is to identify the principal factors and their interactions in selecting export routes for the energy resources of the Caspian Basin. My hypothesis in this study is that political factors are dominant in the region. In the final analysis, the political process is more important than economics in determining which pipeline is to be built. The principal inputs to the development of the model will be detailed analyses of
(1) the development
of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline project, and
(2) the determination of the export route for Kazakhstan’s giant Kashagan offshore oil field. Such a predictive model can then be applied to other countries in the region, or other similar resource-rich regions of the world.
After studying the developments leading to BTC’s success, the promising oil and gas developments in Kazakhstan shall be examined. How will the Kashagan oil field be developed? What alternatives are available to the Kazakh government other than the Russian oil pipeline network? With regard to this question, I put forward the most likely outcome.
My methodology will modify Bruce Bueno de Mesquita’s (BDM) model of
predicting political events in an attempt to find an answer to the above mentioned central question. Applicability of the BDM model will be tested in the context of energy development, which is different from the original and traditional fields of application for this model.
This dissertation mainly concentrates on Turkish foreign policy toward Transcaucasia after the en... more This dissertation mainly concentrates on Turkish foreign policy toward Transcaucasia after the end of the Cold-War (1991-1995). It attempts to evaluate Turkeys Foreign Policy toward the region. The first part of the chapter one tries to assess how the transformation of the global scene has affected both Turkey's power and its policy. The second part of the chapter one attempts to analyse domestic context of Turkeys opening toward Transcaucasia and Central Asia. The last part of the chapter one tries to summarise Turkey's interests, initial perceptions and strategies toward the region. In the second and narrative chapter, it tries to asses actual policies towards the region including political, economic and military aspects of the relations between Turkey, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia. Here, most of the effort is given to the relations between Turkey and Azerbaijan, because of the latter's strategic importance for Turkey not only in its relations to Transcaucasia but in relations to Central Asian republics as well. The final chapter assess some of the problems which Turkey faces in the region and questions its existing and future role in the region by trying to draw up a balance sheet of initial perceptions and actual policies towards the region.
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has had significant implications for the regional and global ener... more The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has had significant implications for the regional and global energy sector, particularly concerning the possible export options of oil and gas from the Caspian region. This area is becoming a major producer of these resources, and the export routes are critical to the energy security of many countries, especially those in Europe. The war in Ukraine has disrupted existing export routes and caused a re-evaluation of future options for exporting Caspian oil and gas. This paper examines the impact of the war in Ukraine’s energy sector and beyond and on the geopolitical implications of main Caspian oil and gas export options.
Despite the Paris Climate Agreement, without new global energy steering bodies the world may fail... more Despite the Paris Climate Agreement, without new global energy steering bodies the world may fail to meet the challenge of preventing catastrophic climate change. Although the G20's potential in terms of global energy governance may still remain limited, the G20's recent actions and steering efforts show that the G20 does have a large ability to make progress in addressing some specific global energy issues.
The future of energy and its geopolitics can be discussed from many angles, including: advances i... more The future of energy and its geopolitics can be discussed from many angles, including: advances in innovation and technology, renewable energy, environmentally friendly applications, the impact of climate change, and Arctic and Eurasian promises. However, the shale gas revolution emerges above the rest as the one with the most realistic potential. Yet the realization of this potential greatly depends on North America (namely the US and Canada) becoming a responsible, more integrated and more transparent energy market. Coordination and timely cooperation with strategic vision between the US and Canada have the potential to create the world's largest and most reliable supply chain for hydrocarbon resources. This development might have serious implications over the search for a new world order as well. Failure to develop this potential can possibly lead to greater geopolitical and geoeconomical rivalries and shift alliances in conventional hydrocarbon energy geopolitics with significant implications for the new world (dis)order.
With the article, “The Shale Gas Revolution and its Impacts Over Global Energy Geopolitics: A Case for a Single North American Energy Market”, published in the May 2015 edition of Geopolitics of Energy – used as a backdrop and complementary-piece for this article, it has now become possible to better assess and stimulate more discussion on the shale gas revolution and its impact over global energy geopolitics.
The shale gas revolution is upon North America, it is the major energy development of the 21st ce... more The shale gas revolution is upon North America, it is the major energy development of the 21st century so far, and it can be exported to the rest of the world. These are the conclusions of Dr. Tuncay Babali, former Ambassador of Turkey to Canada, in this month’s GoE. On the third point, that the seeds of the revolution can be planted in other countries, Dr. Babali notes that over 6,000 Tcf of low-carbon shale gas is technically recoverable outside of North America. But certain conditions will need to be met for this to happen. First, nations need to develop production, transportation, and other infrastructure to support shale gas; they also must create an energy industry where landowners and other stakeholders are rewarded fairly for their cooperation and participation. In this sense, the world can look to North America’s successes and failures in building a workable shale gas industry in only a handful of years.
The reality of regional or sub-regional cooperation has increasingly become a fact of the 21st ce... more The reality of regional or sub-regional cooperation has increasingly become a fact of the 21st century as many nations move towards closer cultural, economic, and political interaction, if not integration, at the regional level. The Balkan region, which traditionally has been referred to as the region of fragmentation and disintegration, now has a chance to emerge as yet another sub-regional order.
The break-up of the Soviet Union ushered new political and economic dynamics in Eurasia. With Eur... more The break-up of the Soviet Union ushered new political and economic dynamics in Eurasia. With Eurasia’s vast geography, and its potential to promote European energy security and democratic transformation, its promise for the future has captured the attention of world leaders like never before.
Energy geopolitics, security and diplomacy of Turkey: opportunities and challenges based on curre... more Energy geopolitics, security and diplomacy of Turkey: opportunities and challenges based on current regional developments
“Turkey & EU Relations at the Crossroads: Implications for Post Crisis Governance” Internati... more “Turkey & EU Relations at the Crossroads: Implications for Post Crisis Governance” International Conferenece organized by International Policy and Leadership Institute, of Portugal, Center for Strategic Research of MFA ,Turkey, & Universiade Lusiada de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal, November 23rd, 2012
“Turkey & The EU: Problems & Prospects” Seminar organized by Hungarian Europe Society , IKV & CE... more “Turkey & The EU: Problems & Prospects” Seminar organized by Hungarian Europe Society , IKV & CENS (the Center for EU Enlargement Studies) at Central European University Budapest, Hungary, April 14, 2011
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Papers by Tuncay BABALI, Ph.D
T. Babali "The Impact of the War in Ukraine on the Energy Geopolitics
and Transition of the Caspian Connection: Future of Alternative
Routes" OGEL 5 (2023), www.ogel.org
URL: www.ogel.org/article.asp?key=4111
T. Babali "The Impact of the War in Ukraine on the Energy Geopolitics
and Transition of the Caspian Connection: Future of Alternative
Routes" OGEL 5 (2023), www.ogel.org
URL: www.ogel.org/article.asp?key=4111
resources in the region.
The objective of this study is to develop a model in order to understand and predict the outcome of the policies of the major actors (governments and companies) in the development and marketing of Caspian Sea energy resources. More specifically, the purpose is to identify the principal factors and their interactions in selecting export routes for the energy resources of the Caspian Basin. My hypothesis in this study is that political factors are dominant in the region. In the final analysis, the political process is more important than economics in determining which pipeline is to be built. The principal inputs to the development of the model will be detailed analyses of;
(1) the development of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline project, and
(2) the determination of the export route for Kazakhstan’s giant Kashagan offshore oil field.
Such a predictive model can then be applied to other countries in the region, or other similar resource-rich regions of the world.
After studying the developments leading to BTC’s success, the promising oil and gas developments in Kazakhstan shall be examined. How will the Kashagan oil field be developed? What alternatives are available to the Kazakh government other than the Russian oil pipeline network? With regard to this question, I put forward the most likely outcome.
My methodology will modify Bruce Bueno de Mesquita’s (BDM) model of predicting political events in an attempt to find an answer to the abovementioned central question. Applicability of the BDM model will be tested in the context of energy development, which is different from the original and traditional fields of application for this model.
The objective of this study is to develop a model in order to understand and predict the outcome of the policies of the major actors (governments and companies) in the development and marketing of Caspian Sea energy resources. More specifically, the purpose is to identify the principal factors and their interactions in selecting export routes for the energy resources of the Caspian Basin. My hypothesis in this study is that political factors are dominant in the region. In the final analysis, the political process is more important than economics in determining which pipeline is to be built. The principal inputs to the development of the model will be detailed analyses of
(1) the development
of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline project, and
(2) the determination of the export route for Kazakhstan’s giant Kashagan offshore oil field. Such a predictive model can then be applied to other countries in the region, or other similar resource-rich regions of the world.
After studying the developments leading to BTC’s success, the promising oil and gas developments in Kazakhstan shall be examined. How will the Kashagan oil field be developed? What alternatives are available to the Kazakh government other than the Russian oil pipeline network? With regard to this question, I put forward the most likely outcome.
My methodology will modify Bruce Bueno de Mesquita’s (BDM) model of
predicting political events in an attempt to find an answer to the above mentioned central question. Applicability of the BDM model will be tested in the context of energy development, which is different from the original and traditional fields of application for this model.
Although the G20's potential in terms of global energy governance may still remain limited, the G20's recent actions and steering efforts show that the G20 does have a large ability to make progress in addressing some specific global energy issues.
With the article, “The Shale Gas Revolution and its Impacts Over Global Energy Geopolitics: A Case for a Single North American Energy Market”, published in the May 2015 edition of Geopolitics of Energy – used as a backdrop and complementary-piece for this article, it has now become possible to better assess and stimulate more discussion on the shale gas revolution and its impact over global energy geopolitics.