Psychological research on the predictors of conspiracy theorizing—explaining important social and... more Psychological research on the predictors of conspiracy theorizing—explaining important social and political events or circumstances as secret plots by malevolent groups—has flourished in recent years. However, research has typically examined only a small number of predictors in one, or a small number of, national contexts. Such approaches make it difficult to examine the relative importance of predictors, and risk overlooking some potentially relevant variables altogether. To overcome this limitation, the present study used machine learning to rank‐order the importance of 115 individual‐ and country‐level variables in predicting conspiracy theorizing. Data were collected from 56,072 respondents across 28 countries during the early weeks of the COVID‐19 pandemic. Echoing previous findings, important predictors at the individual level included societal discontent, paranoia, and personal struggle. Contrary to prior research, important country‐level predictors included indicators of pol...
The COVID-19 pandemic has presented various responses in society. A number of individuals have be... more The COVID-19 pandemic has presented various responses in society. A number of individuals have believed in its existence and conducted health protocols properly, but there are also those who have done the opposite. During a pandemic, belief in science influences actions and responses in society. However, individuals often do not believe in scientific findings, such as the existence of the virus causing the COVID-19 pandemic (SARS-CoV-2). A number of previous studies have often assumed that science is in conflict with religion. But is religion truly the opposite of science? This article aims to look at the role of belief in science in Indonesian society, in responding to the COVID-19 pandemic, and is hoped to be read by various parties such as the general public, scientists, to policymakers. Furthermore, this article may help in understanding the position of science and religion under certain conditions, while also being able to examine the differences in responses that occur. In Ind...
The present paper examines longitudinally how subjective perceptions about COVID-19, one’s commun... more The present paper examines longitudinally how subjective perceptions about COVID-19, one’s community, and the government predict adherence to public health measures to reduce the spread of the virus. Using an international survey (N = 3040), we test how infection risk perception, trust in the governmental response and communications about COVID-19, conspiracy beliefs, social norms on distancing, tightness of culture, and community punishment predict various containment-related attitudes and behavior. Autoregressive analyses indicate that, at the personal level, personal hygiene behavior was predicted by personal infection risk perception. At social level, social distancing behaviors such as abstaining from face-to-face contact were predicted by perceived social norms. Support for behavioral mandates was predicted by confidence in the government and cultural tightness, whereas support for anti-lockdown protests was predicted by (lower) perceived clarity of communication about the vir...
Before vaccines for COVID-19 became available, a set of infection prevention behaviors constitute... more Before vaccines for COVID-19 became available, a set of infection prevention behaviors constituted the primary means to mitigate the virus spread. Our study aimed to identify important predictors of this set of behaviors. Whereas social and health psychological theories suggest a limited set of predictors, machine learning analyses can identify correlates from a larger pool of candidate predictors. We used random forests to rank 115 candidate correlates of infection prevention behavior in 56,072 participants across 28 countries, administered in March-May 2020. The machine-learning model predicted 52% of the variance in infection prevention behavior in a separate test sample—exceeding the performance of psychological models of health behavior. Results indicated the two most important predictors related to individual-level injunctive norms. Illustrating how data-driven methods can complement theory, some of the most important predictors were not derived from theories of health behavior—and some theoretically-derived predictors were relatively unimportant.
Supplemental material, sj-docx-1-psp-10.1177_01461672211036602 for Lockdown Lives: A Longitudinal... more Supplemental material, sj-docx-1-psp-10.1177_01461672211036602 for Lockdown Lives: A Longitudinal Study of Inter-Relationships Among Feelings of Loneliness, Social Contacts, and Solidarity During the COVID-19 Lockdown in Early 2020 by Jolien A. van Breen, Maja Kutlaca, Yasin Koç, Bertus F. Jeronimus, Anne Margit Reitsema, Veljko Jovanović, Maximilian Agostini, Jocelyn J. Bélanger, Ben Gützkow, Jannis Kreienkamp, Georgios Abakoumkin, Jamilah Hanum Abdul Khaiyom, Vjollca Ahmedi, Handan Akkas, Carlos A. Almenara, Mohsin Atta, Sabahat Cigdem Bagci, Sima Basel, Edona Berisha Kida, Allan B. I. Bernardo, Nicholas R. Buttrick, Phatthanakit Chobthamkit, Hoon-Seok Choi, Mioara Cristea, Sára Csaba, Kaja Damnjanovic, Ivan Danyliuk, Arobindu Dash, Daniela Di Santo, Karen M. Douglas, Violeta Enea, Daiane Gracieli Faller, Gavan Fitzsimons, Alexandra Gheorghiu, ángel Gómez, Ali Hamaidia, Qing Han, Mai Helmy, Joevarian Hudiyana, Ding-Yu Jiang, Željka Kamenov, Anna Kende, Shian-Ling Keng, Tra Thi Tha...
Current Research in Ecological and Social Psychology, 2021
Tightening social norms is thought to be adaptive for dealing with collective threat yet it may h... more Tightening social norms is thought to be adaptive for dealing with collective threat yet it may have negative consequences for increasing prejudice. The present research investigated the role of desire for cultural tightness, triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic, in increasing negative attitudes towards immigrants. We used participant-level data from 41 countries (N = 55,015) collected as part of the PsyCorona project, a cross-national longitudinal study on responses to COVID-19. Our predictions were tested through multilevel and SEM models, treating participants as nested within countries. Results showed that people's concern with COVID-19 threat was related to greater desire for tightness which, in turn, was linked to more negative attitudes towards immigrants. These findings were followed up with a longitudinal model (N = 2,349) which also showed that people's heightened concern with COVID-19 in an earlier stage of the pandemic was associated with an increase in their desire for tightness and negative attitudes towards immigrants later in time. Our findings offer insight into the trade-offs that tightening social norms under collective threat has for human groups.
Previous studies suggested that public trust in government is vital for implementations of social... more Previous studies suggested that public trust in government is vital for implementations of social policies that rely on public's behavioural responses. This study examined associations of trust in government regarding COVID-19 control with recommended health behaviours and prosocial behaviours. Data from an international survey with representative samples (N=23,733) of 23 countries were analysed. Specification curve analysis showed that higher trust in government was significantly associated with higher adoption of health and prosocial behaviours in all reasonable specifications of multilevel linear models (median standardised β=0.173 and 0.244, P<0.001). We further used structural equation modelling to explore potential determinants of trust in government regarding pandemic control. Governments perceived as well organised, disseminating clear messages and knowledge on COVID-19, and perceived fairness were positively associated with trust in government (standardised β=0.358, ...
This study explored the diversity of Muslim political attitudes by conducting a latent class anal... more This study explored the diversity of Muslim political attitudes by conducting a latent class analysis in the rarely investigated context of Indonesia—the largest Muslim country in the world. We surveyed a total of 1208 Indonesian Muslim participants from eight out of 33 Indonesian provinces. The latent class analysis revealed that there are six clusters of Muslim Individuals based on their political attitudes: Fundamentalist Muslim, Nationalist Muslim, Apolitical Muslim, Hijrah Muslim, Moderate Muslim, and Progressive Muslim. Moreover, we also found several meaningful differences in psychological correlates (right-wing authoritarianism, social dominance orientation, and need for cognitive closure) across the six clusters. Taken together, this study sheds some light upon the diversity of Muslim political attitudes and the psychological tendencies that correspond with such attitudes.
A variety of public officials have expressed concern that policies mandating collective public he... more A variety of public officials have expressed concern that policies mandating collective public health behaviors (e.g., national/ regional “lockdown”) may result in behavioral fatigue that ultimately renders such policies ineffective. Boredom, specifically, has been singled out as one potential risk factor for non-compliance. We examined whether there was empirical evidence to support this concern during the COVID-19 pandemic in a large cross-national sample of 63,336 community respondents from 116 countries. Although boredom was higher in countries with more COVID-19 cases and countries that instituted more stringent lockdowns, such boredom did not predict longitudinal within-person decreases in social distancing behavior (or vice versa; n = 8031) in early spring and summer of 2020. Overall, we found little evidence that changes in boredom predict individual public health behaviors (handwashing, staying home, self-quarantining, avoiding crowds) over time, or that such behaviors had ...
This study seeks to investigate the ideological passion of those who join a religion-based insurg... more This study seeks to investigate the ideological passion of those who join a religion-based insurgency group. Religion-based insurgencies continue to exist even after being dispersed, whereas region-based insurgencies typically end after government defeat. Having an ideological hatred for the state’s ideology is the primary motivation for insurgents to fight tenaciously for their movement. This study focuses on the ideological passion formation process in the context of the Indonesian Muslim insurgency known as Negara Islam Indonesia. (NII). NII is a religion-based insurgency in Indonesia that continues to operate clandestinely and is the progenitor of radical movements such as Hizbut Tahrir Indonesia. Using a qualitative approach and a case study procedure, the method was applied. The participants included 21 former NII members. Using thematic analysis, the data was examined. Previous research on religion-based insurgency focused primarily on the role of extremist religious ideology...
In the face of uncertainty, people tend to look for ways to manage discomfort, often through reli... more In the face of uncertainty, people tend to look for ways to manage discomfort, often through religion. Growing conservatism in the Muslim society in Indonesia has encouraged people to restore meaning when dealing with uncertainties triggered by a crisis. This study aims to explore the dynamics of meaning restoration through hijra, a collective spiritual transformation process. Using a qualitative approach, findings showed that people going through hijra were driven by significance loss and potential significance gain, both taking validation in relational significance and group identity. In Indonesia, where religion is acknowledged as central to identity, religious groups become a prescription sought for closure, and all are directed towards managing uncertainty and restoring significance. The study found that individuals started the hijra journey provoked by either personal significance loss or the need to gain significance and resorted to the collective orientation of relational si...
Previous studies had shown the benefits of extended intergroup contact for outgroup attitude, mai... more Previous studies had shown the benefits of extended intergroup contact for outgroup attitude, mainly when direct intergroup contact is blocked. However, there have not studies that attempt to directly compare the role of extended contact in outgroup attitude across different contexts. The present study aimed to fill the gap by examining the relationship of extended intergroup contact and outgroup attitude in three different contexts: public schools, moderate Islamic Boarding School, and fundamentalist Islamic Boarding School. These schools differ in the level of group heterogeneity. Possible mechanisms that could explain the relationship were also examined: ingroup norms, outgroup norms, and intergroup anxiety. Two correlational studies were conducted to test the hypotheses—study 1 employed 126 Muslim public high school students employed as participants, study 2 employed 112 participants from a more fundamentalist Islamic Boarding School and 230 participants from a more moderate Isl...
Psychological research on the predictors of conspiracy theorizing—explaining important social and... more Psychological research on the predictors of conspiracy theorizing—explaining important social and political events or circumstances as secret plots by malevolent groups—has flourished in recent years. However, research has typically examined only a small number of predictors in one, or a small number of, national contexts. Such approaches make it difficult to examine the relative importance of predictors, and risk overlooking some potentially relevant variables altogether. To overcome this limitation, the present study used machine learning to rank‐order the importance of 115 individual‐ and country‐level variables in predicting conspiracy theorizing. Data were collected from 56,072 respondents across 28 countries during the early weeks of the COVID‐19 pandemic. Echoing previous findings, important predictors at the individual level included societal discontent, paranoia, and personal struggle. Contrary to prior research, important country‐level predictors included indicators of pol...
The COVID-19 pandemic has presented various responses in society. A number of individuals have be... more The COVID-19 pandemic has presented various responses in society. A number of individuals have believed in its existence and conducted health protocols properly, but there are also those who have done the opposite. During a pandemic, belief in science influences actions and responses in society. However, individuals often do not believe in scientific findings, such as the existence of the virus causing the COVID-19 pandemic (SARS-CoV-2). A number of previous studies have often assumed that science is in conflict with religion. But is religion truly the opposite of science? This article aims to look at the role of belief in science in Indonesian society, in responding to the COVID-19 pandemic, and is hoped to be read by various parties such as the general public, scientists, to policymakers. Furthermore, this article may help in understanding the position of science and religion under certain conditions, while also being able to examine the differences in responses that occur. In Ind...
The present paper examines longitudinally how subjective perceptions about COVID-19, one’s commun... more The present paper examines longitudinally how subjective perceptions about COVID-19, one’s community, and the government predict adherence to public health measures to reduce the spread of the virus. Using an international survey (N = 3040), we test how infection risk perception, trust in the governmental response and communications about COVID-19, conspiracy beliefs, social norms on distancing, tightness of culture, and community punishment predict various containment-related attitudes and behavior. Autoregressive analyses indicate that, at the personal level, personal hygiene behavior was predicted by personal infection risk perception. At social level, social distancing behaviors such as abstaining from face-to-face contact were predicted by perceived social norms. Support for behavioral mandates was predicted by confidence in the government and cultural tightness, whereas support for anti-lockdown protests was predicted by (lower) perceived clarity of communication about the vir...
Before vaccines for COVID-19 became available, a set of infection prevention behaviors constitute... more Before vaccines for COVID-19 became available, a set of infection prevention behaviors constituted the primary means to mitigate the virus spread. Our study aimed to identify important predictors of this set of behaviors. Whereas social and health psychological theories suggest a limited set of predictors, machine learning analyses can identify correlates from a larger pool of candidate predictors. We used random forests to rank 115 candidate correlates of infection prevention behavior in 56,072 participants across 28 countries, administered in March-May 2020. The machine-learning model predicted 52% of the variance in infection prevention behavior in a separate test sample—exceeding the performance of psychological models of health behavior. Results indicated the two most important predictors related to individual-level injunctive norms. Illustrating how data-driven methods can complement theory, some of the most important predictors were not derived from theories of health behavior—and some theoretically-derived predictors were relatively unimportant.
Supplemental material, sj-docx-1-psp-10.1177_01461672211036602 for Lockdown Lives: A Longitudinal... more Supplemental material, sj-docx-1-psp-10.1177_01461672211036602 for Lockdown Lives: A Longitudinal Study of Inter-Relationships Among Feelings of Loneliness, Social Contacts, and Solidarity During the COVID-19 Lockdown in Early 2020 by Jolien A. van Breen, Maja Kutlaca, Yasin Koç, Bertus F. Jeronimus, Anne Margit Reitsema, Veljko Jovanović, Maximilian Agostini, Jocelyn J. Bélanger, Ben Gützkow, Jannis Kreienkamp, Georgios Abakoumkin, Jamilah Hanum Abdul Khaiyom, Vjollca Ahmedi, Handan Akkas, Carlos A. Almenara, Mohsin Atta, Sabahat Cigdem Bagci, Sima Basel, Edona Berisha Kida, Allan B. I. Bernardo, Nicholas R. Buttrick, Phatthanakit Chobthamkit, Hoon-Seok Choi, Mioara Cristea, Sára Csaba, Kaja Damnjanovic, Ivan Danyliuk, Arobindu Dash, Daniela Di Santo, Karen M. Douglas, Violeta Enea, Daiane Gracieli Faller, Gavan Fitzsimons, Alexandra Gheorghiu, ángel Gómez, Ali Hamaidia, Qing Han, Mai Helmy, Joevarian Hudiyana, Ding-Yu Jiang, Željka Kamenov, Anna Kende, Shian-Ling Keng, Tra Thi Tha...
Current Research in Ecological and Social Psychology, 2021
Tightening social norms is thought to be adaptive for dealing with collective threat yet it may h... more Tightening social norms is thought to be adaptive for dealing with collective threat yet it may have negative consequences for increasing prejudice. The present research investigated the role of desire for cultural tightness, triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic, in increasing negative attitudes towards immigrants. We used participant-level data from 41 countries (N = 55,015) collected as part of the PsyCorona project, a cross-national longitudinal study on responses to COVID-19. Our predictions were tested through multilevel and SEM models, treating participants as nested within countries. Results showed that people's concern with COVID-19 threat was related to greater desire for tightness which, in turn, was linked to more negative attitudes towards immigrants. These findings were followed up with a longitudinal model (N = 2,349) which also showed that people's heightened concern with COVID-19 in an earlier stage of the pandemic was associated with an increase in their desire for tightness and negative attitudes towards immigrants later in time. Our findings offer insight into the trade-offs that tightening social norms under collective threat has for human groups.
Previous studies suggested that public trust in government is vital for implementations of social... more Previous studies suggested that public trust in government is vital for implementations of social policies that rely on public's behavioural responses. This study examined associations of trust in government regarding COVID-19 control with recommended health behaviours and prosocial behaviours. Data from an international survey with representative samples (N=23,733) of 23 countries were analysed. Specification curve analysis showed that higher trust in government was significantly associated with higher adoption of health and prosocial behaviours in all reasonable specifications of multilevel linear models (median standardised β=0.173 and 0.244, P<0.001). We further used structural equation modelling to explore potential determinants of trust in government regarding pandemic control. Governments perceived as well organised, disseminating clear messages and knowledge on COVID-19, and perceived fairness were positively associated with trust in government (standardised β=0.358, ...
This study explored the diversity of Muslim political attitudes by conducting a latent class anal... more This study explored the diversity of Muslim political attitudes by conducting a latent class analysis in the rarely investigated context of Indonesia—the largest Muslim country in the world. We surveyed a total of 1208 Indonesian Muslim participants from eight out of 33 Indonesian provinces. The latent class analysis revealed that there are six clusters of Muslim Individuals based on their political attitudes: Fundamentalist Muslim, Nationalist Muslim, Apolitical Muslim, Hijrah Muslim, Moderate Muslim, and Progressive Muslim. Moreover, we also found several meaningful differences in psychological correlates (right-wing authoritarianism, social dominance orientation, and need for cognitive closure) across the six clusters. Taken together, this study sheds some light upon the diversity of Muslim political attitudes and the psychological tendencies that correspond with such attitudes.
A variety of public officials have expressed concern that policies mandating collective public he... more A variety of public officials have expressed concern that policies mandating collective public health behaviors (e.g., national/ regional “lockdown”) may result in behavioral fatigue that ultimately renders such policies ineffective. Boredom, specifically, has been singled out as one potential risk factor for non-compliance. We examined whether there was empirical evidence to support this concern during the COVID-19 pandemic in a large cross-national sample of 63,336 community respondents from 116 countries. Although boredom was higher in countries with more COVID-19 cases and countries that instituted more stringent lockdowns, such boredom did not predict longitudinal within-person decreases in social distancing behavior (or vice versa; n = 8031) in early spring and summer of 2020. Overall, we found little evidence that changes in boredom predict individual public health behaviors (handwashing, staying home, self-quarantining, avoiding crowds) over time, or that such behaviors had ...
This study seeks to investigate the ideological passion of those who join a religion-based insurg... more This study seeks to investigate the ideological passion of those who join a religion-based insurgency group. Religion-based insurgencies continue to exist even after being dispersed, whereas region-based insurgencies typically end after government defeat. Having an ideological hatred for the state’s ideology is the primary motivation for insurgents to fight tenaciously for their movement. This study focuses on the ideological passion formation process in the context of the Indonesian Muslim insurgency known as Negara Islam Indonesia. (NII). NII is a religion-based insurgency in Indonesia that continues to operate clandestinely and is the progenitor of radical movements such as Hizbut Tahrir Indonesia. Using a qualitative approach and a case study procedure, the method was applied. The participants included 21 former NII members. Using thematic analysis, the data was examined. Previous research on religion-based insurgency focused primarily on the role of extremist religious ideology...
In the face of uncertainty, people tend to look for ways to manage discomfort, often through reli... more In the face of uncertainty, people tend to look for ways to manage discomfort, often through religion. Growing conservatism in the Muslim society in Indonesia has encouraged people to restore meaning when dealing with uncertainties triggered by a crisis. This study aims to explore the dynamics of meaning restoration through hijra, a collective spiritual transformation process. Using a qualitative approach, findings showed that people going through hijra were driven by significance loss and potential significance gain, both taking validation in relational significance and group identity. In Indonesia, where religion is acknowledged as central to identity, religious groups become a prescription sought for closure, and all are directed towards managing uncertainty and restoring significance. The study found that individuals started the hijra journey provoked by either personal significance loss or the need to gain significance and resorted to the collective orientation of relational si...
Previous studies had shown the benefits of extended intergroup contact for outgroup attitude, mai... more Previous studies had shown the benefits of extended intergroup contact for outgroup attitude, mainly when direct intergroup contact is blocked. However, there have not studies that attempt to directly compare the role of extended contact in outgroup attitude across different contexts. The present study aimed to fill the gap by examining the relationship of extended intergroup contact and outgroup attitude in three different contexts: public schools, moderate Islamic Boarding School, and fundamentalist Islamic Boarding School. These schools differ in the level of group heterogeneity. Possible mechanisms that could explain the relationship were also examined: ingroup norms, outgroup norms, and intergroup anxiety. Two correlational studies were conducted to test the hypotheses—study 1 employed 126 Muslim public high school students employed as participants, study 2 employed 112 participants from a more fundamentalist Islamic Boarding School and 230 participants from a more moderate Isl...
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Papers by Hamdi Muluk