European winter weather is dominated by several low‐frequency teleconnection patterns, the main o... more European winter weather is dominated by several low‐frequency teleconnection patterns, the main ones being the North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic, East Atlantic/Western Russia, and Scandinavian patterns. We analyze the century‐long ERA‐20C reanalysis and ASF‐20C seasonal hindcast data sets and find that these patterns are subject to decadal variability and fluctuations in predictive skill. Using indices for determining periods of extreme cold or warm temperatures, we establish that the teleconnection patterns are, for some regions, significantly correlated or anti‐correlated to cold or heat waves. The seasonal hindcasts are however only partly able to capture these relationships. There do not seem to be significant changes to the observed links between large‐scale circulation patterns and extreme temperatures between periods of higher and lower predictive skill.
Feedbacks between air pollutants and meteorology play a crucial role in the direction of the resp... more Feedbacks between air pollutants and meteorology play a crucial role in the direction of the response of future climate and air pollution. These feedbacks are important to understand and quantify the potential impact of adaptation and mitigation policies setup for protecting the population against air pollution and heat stress. We review the interactions between climate and air pollution, with special focus on the projections of air pollution under different future climate scenarios and time horizons, based on a literature review of research articles and reports from the last decade. The assessment focuses on 1) the specific impacts of climate change on air pollution and natural particle and precursor emissions in Europe in the near future (2030), by mid-century (2050) and by end of the century (2100), 2) impacts on air pollution due to changes in emissions vs. changes in climate, 3) feedbacks from air pollution on climate, 4) impacts of climate change on wildland fires and air poll...
This data descriptor reports the main scientific values from General Circulation Models (GCMs) in... more This data descriptor reports the main scientific values from General Circulation Models (GCMs) in the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). The purpose of the GCM simulations has been to enhance the scientific understanding of how changes in greenhouse gases, aerosols, and incoming solar radiation perturb the Earth’s radiation balance and its climate response in terms of changes in temperature and precipitation. Here we provide global and annual mean results for a large set of coupled atmospheric-ocean GCM simulations and a description of how to easily extract files from the dataset. The simulations consist of single idealized perturbations to the climate system and have been shown to achieve important insight in complex climate simulations. We therefore expect this data set to be valuable and highly used to understand simulations from complex GCMs and Earth System Models for various phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project.
Increases in climate hazards and their impacts mark one of the major challenges of climate change... more Increases in climate hazards and their impacts mark one of the major challenges of climate change. Situations in which hazards occur close enough to one another to result in amplified impacts, because systems are insufficiently resilient or because hazards themselves are made more severe, are of special concern. We consider projected changes in such compounding hazards using the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble under a moderate (RCP4.5) emissions scenario, which produces warming of about 2.25 °C between pre-industrial (1851–1880) and 2100. We find that extreme heat events occurring on three or more consecutive days increase in frequency by 100%–300%, and consecutive extreme precipitation events increase in most regions, nearly doubling for some. The chance of concurrent heat and drought leading to simultaneous maize failures in three or more breadbasket regions approximately doubles, while interannual wet-dry oscillations become at least 20% more likely across much of the subtrop...
Globale Erwärmung und Hitzewellen: Durch den Klimawandel werden Hitzewellen mit höherer Intensitä... more Globale Erwärmung und Hitzewellen: Durch den Klimawandel werden Hitzewellen mit höherer Intensität, Frequenz und Dauer auftreten. Mit einem neuen Hitzewellenindex, der sowohl Intensität als auch Dauer der Hitzewellen berücksichtigt, können Hitzewellen über Regionen und Zeit hinweg verglichen werden. Hitzewellen, wie die in Russland im Jahr 2010, werden am Ende des 21. Jahrhunderts zur Normalität werden, wenn der Mensch weiterhin unvermindert fossile Brennstoffe verwendet. Extreme Hitzewellen werden Afrika wahrscheinlich am härtesten treffen. Es wird erwartet, dass extreme Hitzewellen schon in naher Zukunft (10-20 Jahre) das ganze Jahr hindurch in Afrika auftreten können. In einigen der am dichtesten besiedelten Regionen, wie Indien, dem Osten der USA, oder Südostasien, wird die Belastung der Menschen durch Hitzewellen noch zusätzlich durch erhöhte Luftfeuchtigkeit verstärkt, mit massiven Folgen für die Gesundheit. <em><strong>Global warming and heat waves:</strong>...
Climate Extremes and Their Implications for Impact and Risk Assessment, 2020
Abstract Improving our understanding of the societal and ecological risks of extreme weather and ... more Abstract Improving our understanding of the societal and ecological risks of extreme weather and climate events in the Earth system and appropriate structures and guidance to prepare for such events from a local community to intergovernmental level is crucial for future human well-being. In this chapter, (1) we review the embedding of risk related to climate extremes into the agenda of intergovernmental bodies and international agreements; (2) we subsequently discuss few case studies that illustrate how impacts emerge through interactions between the atmosphere, biosphere, and society that may be direct or indirect, concurrent or lagged, leading to risk cascades among subsystems of the Earth system; and (3) we finally introduce a newly established “Knowledge-Action Network on Emergent Risks and Extreme Events.” Ultimately, a comprehensive understanding of societal risk related to extreme events and appropriate planning and action for preparedness will emerge from consideration and integration of multiple hazards, system interaction, and dynamics, which will likely remain a scientific and societal challenge for years to come.
Extreme floods with severe impacts have hit municipalities in Western Norway in recent decades an... more Extreme floods with severe impacts have hit municipalities in Western Norway in recent decades and they will become more intense and frequent with global warming. We present a project that focused on providing an approach for visualizing climate change information for decision-makers challenged with planning resilient infrastructure and preparedness measures for future flood impacts. We have chosen visual storytelling through a short film as the most suitable and effective tool for building a communication strategy to reach out to local and regional decision-makers on the one hand and the research community on the other.
The intensity of the heaviest extreme precipitation events is known to increase with global warmi... more The intensity of the heaviest extreme precipitation events is known to increase with global warming. How often such events occur in a warmer world is however less well established, and the combined effect of changes in frequency and intensity on the total amount of rain falling as extreme precipitation is much less explored, in spite of potentially large societal impacts. Here, we employ observations and climate model simulations to document strong increases in the frequencies of extreme precipitation events occurring on decadal timescales. Based on observations we find that the total precipitation from these intense events almost doubles per degree of warming, mainly due to changes in frequency, while the intensity changes are relatively weak, in accordance to previous studies. This shift towards stronger total precipitation from extreme events is seen in observations and climate models, and increases with the strength – and hence the rareness – of the event. Based on these results...
European winter weather is dominated by several low‐frequency teleconnection patterns, the main o... more European winter weather is dominated by several low‐frequency teleconnection patterns, the main ones being the North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic, East Atlantic/Western Russia, and Scandinavian patterns. We analyze the century‐long ERA‐20C reanalysis and ASF‐20C seasonal hindcast data sets and find that these patterns are subject to decadal variability and fluctuations in predictive skill. Using indices for determining periods of extreme cold or warm temperatures, we establish that the teleconnection patterns are, for some regions, significantly correlated or anti‐correlated to cold or heat waves. The seasonal hindcasts are however only partly able to capture these relationships. There do not seem to be significant changes to the observed links between large‐scale circulation patterns and extreme temperatures between periods of higher and lower predictive skill.
Feedbacks between air pollutants and meteorology play a crucial role in the direction of the resp... more Feedbacks between air pollutants and meteorology play a crucial role in the direction of the response of future climate and air pollution. These feedbacks are important to understand and quantify the potential impact of adaptation and mitigation policies setup for protecting the population against air pollution and heat stress. We review the interactions between climate and air pollution, with special focus on the projections of air pollution under different future climate scenarios and time horizons, based on a literature review of research articles and reports from the last decade. The assessment focuses on 1) the specific impacts of climate change on air pollution and natural particle and precursor emissions in Europe in the near future (2030), by mid-century (2050) and by end of the century (2100), 2) impacts on air pollution due to changes in emissions vs. changes in climate, 3) feedbacks from air pollution on climate, 4) impacts of climate change on wildland fires and air poll...
This data descriptor reports the main scientific values from General Circulation Models (GCMs) in... more This data descriptor reports the main scientific values from General Circulation Models (GCMs) in the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). The purpose of the GCM simulations has been to enhance the scientific understanding of how changes in greenhouse gases, aerosols, and incoming solar radiation perturb the Earth’s radiation balance and its climate response in terms of changes in temperature and precipitation. Here we provide global and annual mean results for a large set of coupled atmospheric-ocean GCM simulations and a description of how to easily extract files from the dataset. The simulations consist of single idealized perturbations to the climate system and have been shown to achieve important insight in complex climate simulations. We therefore expect this data set to be valuable and highly used to understand simulations from complex GCMs and Earth System Models for various phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project.
Increases in climate hazards and their impacts mark one of the major challenges of climate change... more Increases in climate hazards and their impacts mark one of the major challenges of climate change. Situations in which hazards occur close enough to one another to result in amplified impacts, because systems are insufficiently resilient or because hazards themselves are made more severe, are of special concern. We consider projected changes in such compounding hazards using the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble under a moderate (RCP4.5) emissions scenario, which produces warming of about 2.25 °C between pre-industrial (1851–1880) and 2100. We find that extreme heat events occurring on three or more consecutive days increase in frequency by 100%–300%, and consecutive extreme precipitation events increase in most regions, nearly doubling for some. The chance of concurrent heat and drought leading to simultaneous maize failures in three or more breadbasket regions approximately doubles, while interannual wet-dry oscillations become at least 20% more likely across much of the subtrop...
Globale Erwärmung und Hitzewellen: Durch den Klimawandel werden Hitzewellen mit höherer Intensitä... more Globale Erwärmung und Hitzewellen: Durch den Klimawandel werden Hitzewellen mit höherer Intensität, Frequenz und Dauer auftreten. Mit einem neuen Hitzewellenindex, der sowohl Intensität als auch Dauer der Hitzewellen berücksichtigt, können Hitzewellen über Regionen und Zeit hinweg verglichen werden. Hitzewellen, wie die in Russland im Jahr 2010, werden am Ende des 21. Jahrhunderts zur Normalität werden, wenn der Mensch weiterhin unvermindert fossile Brennstoffe verwendet. Extreme Hitzewellen werden Afrika wahrscheinlich am härtesten treffen. Es wird erwartet, dass extreme Hitzewellen schon in naher Zukunft (10-20 Jahre) das ganze Jahr hindurch in Afrika auftreten können. In einigen der am dichtesten besiedelten Regionen, wie Indien, dem Osten der USA, oder Südostasien, wird die Belastung der Menschen durch Hitzewellen noch zusätzlich durch erhöhte Luftfeuchtigkeit verstärkt, mit massiven Folgen für die Gesundheit. <em><strong>Global warming and heat waves:</strong>...
Climate Extremes and Their Implications for Impact and Risk Assessment, 2020
Abstract Improving our understanding of the societal and ecological risks of extreme weather and ... more Abstract Improving our understanding of the societal and ecological risks of extreme weather and climate events in the Earth system and appropriate structures and guidance to prepare for such events from a local community to intergovernmental level is crucial for future human well-being. In this chapter, (1) we review the embedding of risk related to climate extremes into the agenda of intergovernmental bodies and international agreements; (2) we subsequently discuss few case studies that illustrate how impacts emerge through interactions between the atmosphere, biosphere, and society that may be direct or indirect, concurrent or lagged, leading to risk cascades among subsystems of the Earth system; and (3) we finally introduce a newly established “Knowledge-Action Network on Emergent Risks and Extreme Events.” Ultimately, a comprehensive understanding of societal risk related to extreme events and appropriate planning and action for preparedness will emerge from consideration and integration of multiple hazards, system interaction, and dynamics, which will likely remain a scientific and societal challenge for years to come.
Extreme floods with severe impacts have hit municipalities in Western Norway in recent decades an... more Extreme floods with severe impacts have hit municipalities in Western Norway in recent decades and they will become more intense and frequent with global warming. We present a project that focused on providing an approach for visualizing climate change information for decision-makers challenged with planning resilient infrastructure and preparedness measures for future flood impacts. We have chosen visual storytelling through a short film as the most suitable and effective tool for building a communication strategy to reach out to local and regional decision-makers on the one hand and the research community on the other.
The intensity of the heaviest extreme precipitation events is known to increase with global warmi... more The intensity of the heaviest extreme precipitation events is known to increase with global warming. How often such events occur in a warmer world is however less well established, and the combined effect of changes in frequency and intensity on the total amount of rain falling as extreme precipitation is much less explored, in spite of potentially large societal impacts. Here, we employ observations and climate model simulations to document strong increases in the frequencies of extreme precipitation events occurring on decadal timescales. Based on observations we find that the total precipitation from these intense events almost doubles per degree of warming, mainly due to changes in frequency, while the intensity changes are relatively weak, in accordance to previous studies. This shift towards stronger total precipitation from extreme events is seen in observations and climate models, and increases with the strength – and hence the rareness – of the event. Based on these results...
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