Nancy K . Hayden
Dr. Nancy K. Hayden is an expert consultant and researcher on the science of complex systems, and its applications to the nexus of international security, science and technology, and governance. She has led multi-disciplinary teams for the US government to address the nexus of security and technology policy issues that include the role of AI and autonomy, the future of space security, nuclear energy safety and waste management, nuclear nonproliferation, counter-WMD, counter-terrorism, and cyber warfare. Dr. Hayden has applied her research expertise in these areas to better understanding of policy interventions (security, humanitarian, development, technical) in civil conflict and peace engineering. In addition to her service as advisor to the USG, Dr. Hayden has also consulted with Governments of Canada, UK, and Sweden, and has contributed to the successful completion of bilateral efforts to secure dangerous nuclear materials in Russia and in China. She is one of a few people in the US to have visited the Chinese nuclear weapons research facilities in Mianyang, China.
Dr. Hayden is retired from a long career (40 years) at Sandia National Laboratories. She earned a PhD in International Security and Economics at the Maryland School of Public Policy, where she remains a Research Fellow with the Center for International and Strategic Studies at the University of Maryland. Driven by a belief in, and commitment to, advancing the power of women to change the world, her academic research interests involve innovations in international interventions and local governance to transform conflict-ridden societies. She has conducted field research in the US, Europe, and Africa, interviewing hundreds of government officials, military personnel, civil society and non-governmental organizations, and humanitarian relief organizations. She is now pioneering applications of this research to the new field of peace engineering.
Dr. Hayden is a native of Dallas, Texas where she attended Ursuline High School. She is now a permanent resident of Santa Fe, New Mexico, where she is active in the local community. She enjoys fly-fishing, hiking and skiing, gourmet dining, the flourishing arts scene, visits from family, and occasional exchanges with Nobel Laureates at the Santa Fe Institute. She holds a BS in Math from the University of Texas at Austin, an MS in Mechanical Engineering from the University of California at Berkeley and is a graduate of the executive program on nonviolent conflict at the Fletcher School of International Affairs at Tufts University. In addition to her community activities, Dr. Hayden is a member of Women in International Security and serves on the governing board of the Systems Dynamics Society.
Supervisors: Dissertation Chairman: Dr. John Steinbruner (deceased); Dr. Robert Orr
Phone: 5052386072
Address: 133 N El Rancho Road
Santa Fe, NM 87501
Dr. Hayden is retired from a long career (40 years) at Sandia National Laboratories. She earned a PhD in International Security and Economics at the Maryland School of Public Policy, where she remains a Research Fellow with the Center for International and Strategic Studies at the University of Maryland. Driven by a belief in, and commitment to, advancing the power of women to change the world, her academic research interests involve innovations in international interventions and local governance to transform conflict-ridden societies. She has conducted field research in the US, Europe, and Africa, interviewing hundreds of government officials, military personnel, civil society and non-governmental organizations, and humanitarian relief organizations. She is now pioneering applications of this research to the new field of peace engineering.
Dr. Hayden is a native of Dallas, Texas where she attended Ursuline High School. She is now a permanent resident of Santa Fe, New Mexico, where she is active in the local community. She enjoys fly-fishing, hiking and skiing, gourmet dining, the flourishing arts scene, visits from family, and occasional exchanges with Nobel Laureates at the Santa Fe Institute. She holds a BS in Math from the University of Texas at Austin, an MS in Mechanical Engineering from the University of California at Berkeley and is a graduate of the executive program on nonviolent conflict at the Fletcher School of International Affairs at Tufts University. In addition to her community activities, Dr. Hayden is a member of Women in International Security and serves on the governing board of the Systems Dynamics Society.
Supervisors: Dissertation Chairman: Dr. John Steinbruner (deceased); Dr. Robert Orr
Phone: 5052386072
Address: 133 N El Rancho Road
Santa Fe, NM 87501
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Papers by Nancy K . Hayden
practices to achieve greater performance and affordability to meet current and future challenges. The recently
signed Digital Engineering Strategy outlines several goals to help achieve the necessary improvements. In
particular, Goal 3 is to “incorporate technological innovation to improve the engineering practice”. It proposes advancements in human-machine interactions, realizing an end-to-end digital enterprise, advances in artificial intelligence and cognitive technologies.
This strategy follows The International Council on Systems Engineering (INCOSE) efforts to accelerate the
transformation of Systems Engineering to a model based discipline. In particular, INCOSE’s Augmented
Intelligence in Systems Engineering (AuI SE) Challenge Team is directed to further the understanding of how
computational approaches, such as artificial intelligence, machine learning, and data science, can collaborate with
human systems engineers to measurably improve the system engineering effort. The activity is leveraging SE and
AI best practices to develop a framework and technical approach to enhance human capabilities in systems
engineering.
The poster outlines findings from the INCOSE AuI SE activity and characterize a “team play”
approach – where engineers and algorithms can coordinate to develop transparent, traceable, and
understandable system designs that are better than either human or algorithmic approaches could develop alone.
Augmented Intelligence requires deliberate consideration to the characteristics of AI systems as integral parts of
the engineering system. The team has identified several characteristics critical to support “team play”
development: 1) understanding the conceptual model for learning and application of learned information in a
mixed environment, 2) roles and responsibilities for models and humans in a unified human-model interaction
team, and 3) factors influencing trust in model-centric decision making.
This poster visually describes how well-structured data in the form of system models enables the use of artificial
intelligence, algorithmic capabilities, expert systems, and human-computer interactions as essential elements in
improving the performance of systems engineering and its essential role in improving our National Security.
Expected outcomes include improving decision making, speeding capability development and overall
improvement in the ability to innovate. The INCOSE AuI SE team includes contributors from commercial, FFRDC,
and academic participants.
As such, territory has been a natural anchoring point for governance. That is the rules of the game are dictated by whoever controls the territory in which the people and activities exist.
For the last 400 years the nation-state (which is referred to in this talk as ”the state”) has served as the corner stone of a global governance system. In effect, it has held a near monopolistic position in the international arena as it generally has maintained--through sovereignty--final say over how global events are allowed to impact its territory.
The nation-state’s central role stems from its historical efficiency and effectiveness at governing large territorial entities and the people and activities within them.
However, technological advances are contributing to a rapid and truly global interconnectedness, where through virtual means people in disparate parts of the world can interact while physically distant from each other. Moreover, technologies like 3D printing increasingly mean that people and goods don’t have to move. In other words, communication, services, and supply chains are becoming increasingly virtual.
As a result, we are witnessing geography becoming a less important factor for people and activities (provided they are online/connected). Moreover, people’s access to information and services is vastly increasing.
What are the implications of these changes to the role of the nation-state, especially given the territorial assumptions that underpin its necessity and prominence in a global system? Does increased connectivity fundamentally change governance relationships on a global basis? Does the role of the nation-state diminish as it seeks to adapt to these global forces? Does the global power balance tip away from nation-states to create a more diverse governance environment with competing types of governance providers?
ish in a global context in favor of alternative governance services providers, what does that mean for national security? What is national security in a world with a diminished nation-state role? And what are the implications for national security entities?
Econometric analysis and dynamic systems modeling of 36 conflicts in Africa between 1989 -2014 are combined with process tracing in a case study of Somalia to evaluate correlations between state characteristics, peace operations and foreign aid on the likelihood of observed conflict patterns, test hypothesized causal mechanisms across scales, and develop policy recommendations for increasing human security while decreasing resiliency of belligerents. Findings are that observed conflict patterns scale from micro to macro levels; are strongly correlated with state characteristics that proxy a mix of cooperative (e.g., gender equality) and coercive (e.g., security forces) conflict-balancing mechanisms; and are weakly correlated with UN and regional peace operations and humanitarian aid. Interactions between peace operations and aid interventions that effect conflict persistence at micro levels are not seen in macro level analysis, due to interdependent, micro-level feedback mechanisms, sequencing, and lagged effects.
This study finds that the dynamic system structures associated with observed conflict patterns contain tipping points between balancing mechanisms at the interface of micro-macro level interactions that are determined as much by factors related to how intervention policies are designed and implemented, as what they are. Policy implications are that reducing risk of conflict persistence requires that peace operations and aid interventions (1) simultaneously increase transparency, promote inclusivity (with emphasis on gender equality), and empower local civilian involvement in accountability measures at the local levels; (2) build bridges between intervention sectors that horizontally and vertically integrate across levels using common metrics; and (3) pave pathways towards conflict transformation mechanisms and justice that scale from the individual, to community, regional, and national levels.
I wish to engage a cross-section of key stakeholders in Ethiopia who are (or have been) involved these interventions.
Econometric analysis and dynamic systems modeling of 36 conflicts in Africa between 1989 -2014 are combined with process tracing in a case study of Somalia to evaluate correlations between state characteristics, peace operations and foreign aid on the likelihood of observed conflict patterns, test hypothesized causal mechanisms across scales, and develop policy recommendations for increasing human security while decreasing resiliency of belligerents. Findings are that observed conflict patterns scale from micro to macro levels; are strongly correlated with state characteristics that proxy a mix of cooperative (e.g., gender equality) and coercive (e.g., security forces) conflict-balancing mechanisms; and are weakly correlated with UN and regional peace operations and humanitarian aid. Interactions between peace operations and aid interventions that effect conflict persistence at micro levels are not seen in macro level analysis, due to interdependent, micro-level feedback mechanisms, sequencing, and lagged effects.
This study finds that the dynamic system structures associated with observed conflict patterns contain tipping points between balancing mechanisms at the interface of micro-macro level interactions that are determined as much by factors related to how intervention policies are designed and implemented, as what they are. Policy implications are that reducing risk of conflict persistence requires that peace operations and aid interventions (1) simultaneously increase transparency, promote inclusivity (with emphasis on gender equality), and empower local civilian involvement in accountability measures at the local levels; (2) build bridges between intervention sectors that horizontally and vertically integrate across levels using common metrics; and (3) pave pathways towards conflict transformation mechanisms and justice that scale from the individual, to community, regional, and national levels.